2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll : top 4 rankings unchanged but aquino inches up to tie at 3rd, villanueva’s lead weakens

eddie villanueva

erap estrada

gilbert teodoro

jamby madrigal

jc de los reyes

manny villar

nicanor perlas

noynoy aquino

richard gordon

note: comments in the poll are not moderated. the poll software does not have a facility to moderate comments. only comments made in this blog are moderated.

January 7, 2010; 9am
the top 4 standings remain – villanueva at the top with 35%, gordon at 2nd with 32% and the 3rd spot is now shared by aquino and teodoro with each getting 11%. aquino has inched up to a tie at 3rd while villanueva has slid down to 35% from 36%.  villar is a far 5th at 7%.

note that this poll already has thousands of voters which makes movements in the ratings more difficult as it will need a much greater number of voters to increase the ratings of the candidates.

December 16, 2009; 9am
nicanor perlas removed. villanueva regains lead with 36%, followed by gordon at 31%. teodoro is 3rd at 12%, aquino is at 4th with 9%, villar is next at 7%.

December 14, 2009; 2pm
reichard gordon takes the lead in the poll with 32%. prvious leader vuillanueva drops to 2nd at 30%. teodoro is at 3rd with 14%, followed by aquino at 11%. gordon took the lead with a surge  of voters from facebook.

December 14, 2009; 9am
richard gordon surges to 31% and now shares the lead with villanueva.

yasay surges to 3rd place in The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll for vice-president; fernando keeps dominant lead

bayani fernando

edu manzano

jejomar binay

loren legarda

mar roxas

perfecto yasay

January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%.  fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.

December 10, 2009, 7am - bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.

December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of  which was yesterday.

Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.

countdown – how much longer do we wait for gloria macapagal arroyo’s term to end?

miriam defensor santiago tops 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll for senators

january 2, 2010; 11am
results of poll as of this time and date – all are known personalities or ex-senators.

1. miriam defensor santiago – 8%
2. pia cayetano – 7%
3. kata inocencio – 6%
4. franklin drilon – 6%
5. bongbong marcos – 6%
6. juan ponce enrile – 6%
7. sergio osmenia III – 5%
8. ralph recto – 5%
9.  sonia roco – 4%
10.   bong revilla – 4%
11.   gilbert remulla – 4%
12.   satur ocampo – 3%
13.   vic sotto – 3%
14.   jinggoy estrada – 3#

 

december 19, 2009; 11am 

 we are now opening a new poll for the senatoriables. we have cut into a short list of senatoriables who we think have at least name recall.

official list of senatorial candidates, below. click to view:

presidentiables choose history, the hometown; teodoro chooses feng shui

today is the formal start of the campaign period for national positions. presidentiables launched their campaigns:

• noynoy aquino and mar roxas chose tarlac, the aquino hometown
• manny villar and loren legarda chose laguna, the birthplace of hose rizal
• erap estrada and jejomar binay had theirs in plaza miranda, the traditional miting de abanse venue for generations of politicians
• richard gordon and bayani fernando chose cavite, home to gordon’s hero ancestors
• gilbert teodoro and edu manzano chose antipolo because of feng shui. wth?

Teodoro was advised by friends, including feng shui experts, that Antipolo would be a good venue to kick off his campaign, said Reggie Velasco, deputy secretary general of the Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats.

“They said that the place is nice, the flow of air is good. Being in the east of Manila, it is where the sun shines, and because the place is elevated, Gibo will be situated on top where he can see the entire Metro Manila and neighboring areas,” Velasco said in a phone interview.

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100205-251447/Teodoro-brings-faith-feng-shui-into-campaign-kickoff

we were shocked to read about teodoro’;s choice and most specially his reason from choosing antipolo city. he prides himself with being a harvard graduate and a bar topnotcher and now we find out feng shui is his choice.

mar roxas gives a new name – manny villaroyo

villaroyo – this is the name that mar roxas gave manny villar in today’s launch of the LP’s presidential campaign. roxas says it will be made more apparent in the next few weeks that manny villar is indeed the secret candidate of gloria macapagal arroyo.

gilbert teodoro, the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD standard bearer is the presidentiable cloearly associated with arroyo, being party mates and both of them claiming it is such. teodoro’s low ratings in the polls, 5% at best at this late stage of the campaign is showing arroyo has given teodoro a kiss of death.

mar roxas is hoping  villar will be given the same kiss of death. but is arroyo’s kiss of death transferable?

erap no-show at PDI forum – hiding from the truth?

Estrada a no-show; handlers say PDI ‘biased’

‘Biased against Erap’

Margaux Salcedo, Estrada’s spokesperson, said in a statement: “The executive committee of the campaign felt that Inquirer is always biased against Erap, that it would work more harm than good to attend, and advised President Erap not to go.”

Salcedo, who is also an Inquirer contributor, said her boss did not attend upon the advice of his campaign managers.

Former Sen. Ernesto Maceda, Estrada’s chief campaigner, complained that media outlets, like the Inquirer and ANC, highlighted only the absence of the ex-president in debates.

“Forums only upset the campaign schedule,” Maceda said on Sunday.

i don’t know how not attending this forum this will help erap’s presidential bid, but for sure this is a huge loss of opportunity for estrada.  PDI is the largest selling national broadsheet and undeniably one of the more influential press in the country.

we have seen erap in other forums and he has done alright in them. he was not able to break barriers but he has not failed in them. PDI being biased is beside the point. PDI as far as we can read is biased against stupidity, but they will write things the way they are. they have a tabloid mentality in the way they write their headlines, but they put things out there for us to read as they happen.

a presidency will always get critics. that is something erap, of all the presidentiables should know. he has been there. not wanting to deal with adversity does not speak very well of a presidency. come on, if estrada gets elected president, he will never talk to PDI, the largest circulating broadsheet in the country?

wrong move, erap.

Memo To: Noynoy Aquino – fire your communication team and ad agency or lose the election

we think noynoy aquino’s recent performance in the pulse asia january poll where he lost precious points and now is statistically tied with villar says this – aquino needs to fire his communication team and ad agency.

 villar able to finally catch up with aquino is mostly because ot the marketing  and advertising efforts he has launched so far. it is a very professional campaign.

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog.

analysis – villar and aquino are opposites, villar and estrada are the same : pulse asia presidentiables poll january 2010

taken from the January 2010 Pulse Asia Presidentiables Poll

the villar and aquino campaign should all be in their respective war rooms analyzing the latest poll results of pulse asia. we offer out analysis of it.

based on this data of soci-eco class breakdown, many villar and noynoy aquino are opposites.

aquino’s ABC rating of 37% and D at 40% puts aquino tending towards the middle class to the the upper class. villar on the other hand has 39% among the E and 34% D puts him more towards the lower class. among the socio-eco class groupings, aquino is strong among the ABC segment while it is villar’s weakness. villar’s strength is at E  segment, aquino’s biggest weakness.

more interesting, villar’s profile based on this chart is exactly the same as that of erap estrada – strongest among the E, most weak among the ABC.  we think villar has achieved this profile through his tv ads and their conscious move to change his campaign’s platform to  ”go all out on poverty”.

we have written about this move in this blog : manny villar’s “all out war on poverty” platform and here: manny villar’s “magtatapos ng kahirapan” tv ad – a bold shift in advertising strategy, 5 stars!.

looking at this poll results, villar’s strategy changed worked.

gilbert teodoro’s new tv ad “lipad” does not fly

there is something wrong with this tv ad of gilbert teodoro. it’s that part from the start of the ad to the end of the ad.

gilbert teodoro has positioned himself in this election as the “galing at talino” presidentiable but in this ad, tedooro chooses his hobby, being a pilot as the over-all theme of the ad. of all things about teodoro, he chose the one credential that seem to be the least among his many credentials that are much more substantial.

we have nothing against pilots but we are not sure people know pilots can be good at running a country. we also doubt that his intended audience know a lot about being a pilot nor is it a career that is aspirational to them and enough for them to be convinced to vote for teodoro.

the ad actually talks about the economy. as a tie-in to the pilot concept. the ad talks about teodoro’s promise to push the country into an economic take-off.

and that exposes more problems in this ad, in fact we think it is a much more major error in this ad. people definitely will not associate pilots with the economy of a country much more the idea that we need a good pilot to push the country into an eco take-off.

it is bad enough that most people know little about economics, this ad added another ambiguity into it by saying someone who is a good pilot will be able to push the economy into a take-off. the ad may have attempted to explain, but we don’t get it.

what burdens this ad is the topic they chose. the economy is an invisible idea to most, but to choose economic take-off as the specific discourse is like drinking a glass of water knowing there is poison at the bottom of the glass.

teodoro towards the end of the ad says we are ready for a take-off but in reality we are not. in fact the philippines is far from even being ready for a take-off and many steps removed at an actual economic take-off.

we think what happened here is the ad agency and/or the teodoro campaign wanted the economy as the topic. then they probably said they should not just talk of the economy in general as it might be a boring tv ad and does not offer very much differentiation versus the other presidentiables. so they decided to use ‘economic take-off” as the topic, a sexy topic in economics.

then the creatives probably complained. eco take-off is a very complex topic to explain in a 30 second tv ad and a boring one. they needed some creative handle to make the ad more interesting to the audience. and that is how they found teodoro’s hobby of being a pilot as the creative handle.

they must have said – voila! we found the magic potion. in their minds, it really was perfect – being a pilot is unique to teodoro among his rivals, its kinda sexy, he flies planes, planes do a take off and the topic is eco take-off! what a great find!

imagine that, all the words and concepts match perfectly. it will also allow the creatives shots of huge plane, controls and a literal take-off of the plane. just perfect.

yes, it is perfect in their world. but we think not in the real world of advertising where it needs to be aired to a general audience.

in their excitement and unending celebration of finding the right formula with a perfect fit, they forgot they pushed their candidate’s image from lofty and aspirational to mediocre and hohum that most of the people will not find fascinating.

this is the formula they used, but forgot it is something that will not take-off in the minds of voters : good pilot = good president.

this ad is a WAWAM!

pulse asia january 2010 presidentiables poll – villar ties aquino, we are not surprised. villar takes from aquino and estrada.

the latest pulse asia presidentiables poll,  conducted january 22-26 puts manny villar catching up with noynoy aquino and are now at a statistical tie. we are not surprised. as we have posted in this blog, we were anticipating a closing of the gap in the surveys as we approach election time.

we also said that this election is for aquino to lose and for villar to win. (read post here: the 2010 Philippine Presidential Election – an election for aquino to lose, an election for villar to win). manny villar move up by +12% points while aquino dropped by -8% points from previous poll, placing aquino now at 37% and villar at 35%. with a +/- 2% margin of error, that puts them on a statistical tie.

also noteworthy is the drop suffered by erap estrada whose rating dropped by -7% to now 12% and still at 3rd. this may mean villar took voters from both aquino and estrada. estrada in past surveys seemed to have very loyal supporters with his ratings within the 15% range, hardly moving and always at 3rd place.

gilbert teodoro the admin/arroyo candidate continue to have 5% indicating his efforts during this period has had no effect. teodoro aired new advertising (read previous post here:  gilbert teodoro’s “posible” tv ad – a change of strategy to save his campaign).

eddie villanueva is now at 2% while richard godon at 1%. we are surprised that gordon has not moved up more.

we will give our views on these dvelopments in the next post.

source :  http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=703

BusinessWorld-SWS January 2010 presidentiables survey – villar closes gap

Aquino-Villar spread cut to 7 points

The key change from the previous SWS survey of December 27-28, 2009 is that Aquino lost 2 of his former 44 points while Villar gained 2 points, thus cutting the Aquino-Villar spread from 11 points to 7 [Chart 1, Table 1].

Estrada lost 2 of his former 15 points, bringing him at least 22 points away from Aquino and Villar.

The vote percentages of Teodoro, Villanueva, Gordon, Madrigal, De Los Reyes, and Perlas did not change significantly from December of 2009.

http://www.sws.org.ph/

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog – what is next after the elections?

we got this interesting comment from one of this blog’s regular posters:

Estipona ng Davao :I appreciate the effort of wawam for creating this blog.Wawam gives us an avenue to express our opinions(even it is outrageous or sober)and ideas to others.Even I do not agree with wawam’s opinions,I agree to disagree with him.Let us express our opinion without slandering or cursing others,it reflects our maturity(immaturity) to face opposing views.I hope wawam will continue this blog even after its expiry date.Maybe,a blog about our new president and officials after election.How about it wawam? God bless you always. 

this was our reply:

i have received similar requests and suggestions from many others. this blog will continue to be open even after the election. as others have also told me, i think we have collected here a very wide body of thoughts and opinions not only on the candidates but also on our country and what is good for our people. i think we have here by and large excellent views. they are diverse, wide and well thought of. we like to build on these good things that readers and authors have in this blog.

to be honest, because of the authors, readers and those who post comments here, the blog has exceeded my personal expectations. it has grown from a specifically marketing and advertising in politics to a much wider but pointed discussion not only on politics but good governance.

thank you again for everyone in this blog – authors, readers and those who post comments for making this a rich and uplifting experience on the net. and thank you for your suggestion and compliments.

we like to get your comments and POV.

noynoy aquino’s new tv ad – pinoy noynoy rap

this is next in The 2010 Presidentiables Blog. 

catholic church’s double standard – use conscience on election but do not use conscience on RH Bill 5043

apparently, the catholic church is asking its faithful to use their conscience on some things but find it okay that its faithful do not use their conscience on others.  

Solon hits Church double standard

 By Leila Salaverria
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 05:12:00 01/26/2010

MANILA, Philippines—The Catholic Church in the Philippines is practicing a double standard when it tells the people to choose the country’s next leaders by following their conscience, but at the same time it tells them not to vote for those candidates that support the reproductive health (RH) bill, Akbayan party-list Rep. Walden Bello said.

“On the one hand, [the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines] has said vote according to your conscience. On the other, it says it’s not moral to vote for people who support the reproductive health bill. There is a double standard here,” Bello said in a press conference.

He said the Church should not blackmail the candidates who support the RH bill by trying to influence their voters based on this issue, which has proven to be very contentious.

He called on his colleagues in the House of Representatives to tackle the measure despite the Church’s opposition and its branding of the bill as morally reprehensible.

“What is morally reprehensible is to keep the reproductive rights of Filipinas at the mercy of the Church’s political opinion,” he said in a separate statement.

“Does it sit well with our conscience that families are condemned to poverty owing to the lack of means for effective family planning? Or that there are rising numbers of people infected with sexually transmitted diseases due to the lack of decent information?” Bello said.

Bello also lamented that the remaining session days of the House had been devoted to a measure that was going nowhere, specifically the bill to revive the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP).

He said the BNPP bill, which has also met stiff opposition on the floor, has no future since it does not even have a counterpart measure in the Senate.

The House therefore should discuss the reproductive health bill which has been tackled in three congresses already, he said.

Fine secular line

“As the Congress, we must assert our independence from the Church’s opinions and maintain the fine secular line between the functions of Church and state,” he added.

Albay Rep. Edcel Lagman, one of the main proponents of the RH bill, had earlier said that he would block the pet measures of other legislators, such as those calling for a constitutional convention and for imposing new taxes, if the reproductive health bill was not taken up in the House.

The reproductive health bill seeks to promote both natural and artificial birth control methods through government programs.

The Catholic Church hierarchy in the country is strongly opposed to the measure, saying that it promotes the use of abortifacients. It recommends the use of rhythm and other natural methods of birth control for couples who want to limit the size of their families.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100126-249489/Solon-hits-Church-double-standard

red flag alert for manny villar – a C-5 controversy take down in the horizon

we think the C-5 controversy has taken a very bad turn from something that looks bad to something that can be disastrous for manny villar. as of yesterday, just a few months away from election, the senate is painting villar as corrupt, having manipulated the C-5 road extension project for his company’s gain.

corruption is huge issue in this election. it is one of the legacies of president arroyo as she leaves office and one of the strengths of noynoy aquino that has brought him up to dominant leader in the surveys. aquino has taken a very strong anti-corruption stand. one of aquino’s ads very boldly declared – “Hindi ako magnanakaw.”

villar is doing very well in the polls. he has consistently come up as a strong second and more importantly a growing 2nd placer. it is our view that this election is for aquino to lose and for villar to win. we think at election time, this will be an election between aquino and villar.

with the stage set and the front runner boldly declaring his anti-corruption stance, this C-5 controversy is bound to hit villar down the stretch, the senate it appears will not let this pass. media has put this issues as its headline news. this will not go away easily and certainly not soon.

villar has not been attending the senate debates and hearings on the controversy. we thought it was a wise move. but now we are seeing it as a wise move then, but no longer as the senate is hell bent into giving a lot of time on it.

if  it has not done so, the villar campaign should put up a high powered crisis management team to make this go away.  we think villar’s options are very limited and whatever effort this crisis management team will do will not be able to remove all of the ill-effects. there will be ill-effects.