roxas and escudero surge in SWS feb 2009 presidentiables survey, but roxas should not celebrate too much

the story in this latest survey is not who is on top of the survey but who among the non-leaders surged up.  it is intentional that we use the word “surge” – escudero moved up one slot in rank and is now 4th with a +4 pts to 23% now. 

roxas who used to be 7th in ranking jumped to 5th place when he took a 5 pt surge to now 15%. that is an impressive increase.

it is not unusual for the leaders in this poll to stay where they are – de castro, villar and legarda are the top three. movements at that level are not expected until a few months or weeks near election time.

while there is some reason for roxas to celebrate, he needs to not over-do it. there are some concerns on his performance. we will be issuing a memo to roxas on the next post here in 2010 presidentiables.  

source: http://www.sws.org.ph/

pope benedict – out of touch, out of science

it’s hard to tell which is the bigger problem for pope benedict – is he so out of touch from the reality of the spread of AIDS/HIV in the world or is he so out of touch of science and medicine where studies have shown condoms do prevent the spread of AIDS/HIV.

i won’t dwell on the science of it, but to me it’s very simple logic – the condom is barrier. it prevents something outside from going inside and that includes the AIDS/HIV virus. it should work.

many of the criticism and in fact the reason why many catholics have stopped going to church and moved out of catholic church is the lack of relevance. the church has been complaining for years that church attendance is steadily going down and fewer and fewer males go into priesthood. most of the reason why that has happened is they feel the church is way out of touch from real life, so much so that it no longer provides anything relevant in their lives.

this is one good example of that.

 

Facebook users wage condom campaign against Pope

By Faith Karimi
CNN

 

 (CNN)– Critics took to the social networking site Facebook to voice their fury over Pope Benedict’s remark that condoms do not prevent HIV.

Thousands have pledged to send the pontiff millions of condoms to protest the controversial comment he made to journalists as he flew to Cameroon last week.

“You can’t resolve it with the distribution of condoms,” the pope told reporters. “On the contrary, it increases the problem.”

Pope Benedict XVI has made it clear he intends to uphold the traditional Catholic teaching on artificial contraception. The Vatican has long opposed the use of condoms and other forms of birth control and encourages sexual abstinence to fight the spread of the disease.

About a dozen Facebook groups have sprang up, mostly from European countries, criticizing the pontiff.

“The clergy aren’t supposed to have sex at all, but they are free to tell people how to conduct themselves? That’s like a girl who wears no make-up as the CEO of CoverGirl,” one member posted on the page, “Condoms for Pope Benedict XVI.”

“It frightens me that a man who has devoted his life to moral guidance … and is undeniably a learned, intelligent man can be at the same time so narrow-minded, bigoted and irresponsible,” posted another person on a different page.

The online campaign added another voice to a deluge of criticism, which includes the governments of France, Germany and Belgium. Aid agencies and other health organizations have also chimed in.

The Lancet, a British medical journal, urged the pope Saturday to issue a retraction for the “outrageous and wildly inaccurate” statement to journalists aboard his plane.

“When any influential person, be it a religious or political leader, makes a false scientific statement that could be devastating to the health of millions of people, they should retract or correct the public record,” The Lancet said in an editorial.

“Anything less from Pope Benedict would be an immense disservice to the public and health advocates, including many thousands of Catholics, who work tirelessly to try and prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS worldwide.”

read in full: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/03/28/pope.condom.attacks/

senator ping lacson’s “patas na laban para sa lahat” campaign

this is next in 2010 presidentiables.

is governor ed panlilio the way out of the cross for the philippines?

ed panlilio was the unlikely winner in the governatorial race in pampanga. he had no money. he had no political machinery. and he ran against someone who had all that and one or two very powerful high governement officials as backers. but Fr Ed Panlilio, The Unlikely won just the same.

and did we mention ed panlilio is a catholic priest?

so now, he has declared he wants to be president. is this unlikely winner and an unlikely candidate poised to win the presidential election in 2010?   is he the country’s salvation from the cross?

Earth Hour : March 28, 2009, 8:30pm to 9:30pm

feb 2009 presidential performance and trust ratings – arroyo continued to be mired in mud

 

 

 view bigger chart here: http://pulseasia.com.ph/resources/photos/table2a_PGMA_perf_UB0902.gif

 class ABC’s trust rating drop of -9 pts in our opinion is significant. the ABC class is the thinking class and is the group that is best connected to the political and economic issues. they may not be the first group to be affected by the economic downturn, but they have a sharper understanding of the issues.

a high 62% in the NCR gave arroyo a disapproval rating on her presidential performance. that is significant again because the NCR is the political and economic center of the country.

the other interesting results on the presidential performance rating chart is that the lower class – more of the D and E classes gave arroyo disapproval ratings. these are the groups of people who were supposed to benefit from the dole outs arroyo have been announcing in the past months. the dole outs are not having a positive effect among the poor?

 if this was a marketing product sold in the market, with performance and trust ratings like these, Brand Gloria Macapagal Arroyo would have been pulled out of the market a long time ago. cut losses as soon as possible!

 

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=665

gasp! february 2009 pulse asia presidentiable survey results

looking at the numbers:

• de castro on top is not surprising
• escudero at 2nd is surprising. no advertising for senator escudero, just plain media exposure on his reactions to the political scandals the senate has been handling.  same fear he might run out of air with his monotone delivery but elegant and understandable tagalog.
• estrada at 3rd is surprising. what is this man doing? it’s hard to believe all this is still the hang-over from post edsa dos. but he is there.
• villar at 4th is comfortable. advertising works! that is what you say on villar.
• why is roxas that low? he has advertising but it is not doing anything for him unlike what it is doing for villar. we will be sending a memo to roxas in the next post.

February 2009 presidentiables survey – how pulse asia became irresponsible and unprofessional

to view chart in full: http://pulseasia.com.ph/resources/photos/table2_2010Elec_UB0902.gif

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=668

i think pulse asia has erred in having this as their sub-title in their press release for the results of this survey: “No clear winner would emerge in the presidential race if the May 2010 elections were held today “

it looks like pulse asia forgot the meaning of the word “survey/poll”. this is a poll, you can’t use words like “winner”, much less “clear” in describing the results of the poll.  surveys and polls do not measure the number of votes candidates get, surveys and polls measure preference or attitudes, not election votes. you can only use the word “winner” in an election if you count the votes.

also, the pulse asia write up strongly implies presidentiable polls and surveys are infallible which of course any professional pollster worth his salt know that is not so. infallibility of poll results is something you never say in things like these.

including those words in their press release is irresponsible and unprofessional of pulse asia.

the effect of what they did is that media, philippine daily inquirer picked up on that line and used it as  the same thought as a sub-head in today’s edition. PDI is know to be a tabloid masquerading as national broadsheet, given it’s tabloid mind, PDI picked up that idea as it is more thought provoking and dramatic, never mind that it is incorrect.

i find it disconcerting that pulse asia, a research agency got into the dramatic in their press release. they should have just stuck to releasing the results od the survey, they should also analyze it but they should not editorialize. they should have just left the editorializing to the press.

shame on pulse asia!

Noli, Chiz, Erap, Manny in close race

If the May 2010 presidential elections were held today, it would be a close race among Vice President Noli de Castro, Senator Francis Escudero, former President Joseph Estrada, and Senator Manuel Villar, according to the latest Pulse Asia survey. Based on the February 2009 Nationwide Survey on the May 2010 elections, these four politicians “enjoyed nearly the same overall voter preferences,” Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda said in the firm’s March 12 media release.

In the February 2 to 15 natiowide survey of 1,200 representative adults, respondents were asked who among 9 politicians on the list were their first choice for president.

De Castro was the first choice with 19%, followed closely by Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero with 17%, former President Joseph Estrada with 16%, and Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. with 15%.

“No clear winner would emerge in the presidential race if the May 2010 elections were held today,” the polling firm said.

Escudero beat de Castro in vote-rich Metro Manila with 27% while De Castro got 14%,  Estrada got 13%, and Villar got 12%.  

Escudero, who becomes eligible for the presidential race in October, gained 2% since the October 2008 Pulse Asia survey while Villar dropped 2%.

Behind the top four preferences for president were Senators Loren Legarda (12%), Mar Roxas (8%), and Panfilo Lacson (6%).

At the bottom were Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (2%) and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando (1%).

The survey has a margin of error of plus/minus 3%.

read in full here: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/03/12/09/noli-chiz-erap-manny-close-race

Lupang Hinarang Screening and Discussion

Date:  March 11, 2009
Time:  10:00 am
Venue: Cardinal Sin Center, Loyola School of Theology,  Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City

Synopsis:

Lupang Hinarang is a film in two parts about a fierce and deadly battle raging between farmers and landowners in the Philippines.

The documentary opens with the tribal Sumilao farmers, Ka Rene, Nang Linda and Bajekjek, who, inspired by Gandhi’s protest march, journey on foot for two months from their mountain village in Bukidnon to the presidential palace in Manila.

It is a gruelling 1,700 kilometer journey through scorching heat, rains, fatigue, and great uncertainty. After weeks of walking, the farmers reach Manila, rally at the corporate offices of San Miguel, confront the agrarian reform secretary and grapple with anti-riot police before finally meeting the President.

The second part tells the story of the sugarcane workers from Negros. When armed guards of the landowner kill one of the farmers in 2007, Chay Lindy, Chay Gamay, and Chay Biray go on a harrowing 29-day hunger strike with other farmers in front of the agrarian reform office in Manila. The hunger strike results in victory for the farmers until the film ends in a shocking climax. Lupang Hinarang is a timely documentary set against ongoing debates in Congress to extend and reform CARP (CARPER) or to kill it.

This film screening is for free. However, guests are highly encouraged to donate a minimum amount of P100, part of which will be forwarded to the Sumilao farmers. A hat will also be passed around after the screening and discussion to collect donations.

You may invite your friends and colleagues to this event.

Those who cannot attend the event are requested to forward this invitation to other people.

Thank you very much.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Endorsement Of A Presidentiable -A Kiss Of Death

history repeats itself. that is true for history and in many cases that is also true in marketing. history repeating itself is the main reason why marketing companies write marketing plans every year.

the marketing does not just set budgets for the new year, it also looks back at past performance and draw up what they call “Lessons Learned”. actually it means “How I Screwed Up Last Year”. the point is learn from your mistakes – identify them, don’t make them again and do new things.

that’s essentially what the admin presidentiables need to face now. nobody missed what happened in the last senatorial elections – almost all the candidates of the admin lost in the elections. not only that, the admin candidates lost to a nobody like senator trillanes. and it did not help that most of the admin senatorial candidates outspent most of the opposition candidates. even the much talked about fielding of handsome and popular actors for the administration did not make any magic.

the lesson learned in the last election – an arroyo endorsement, even just a strong association with arroyo is a kiss of death.

but what are the admin candidates supposed to do? arroyo has the money and the machinery. a really, really tough decision to make for them.

we have a suggestion though – make arroyo endorse the opposition candidate! that way the opposition candidate will suffer the kiss of death.

 

 

Assuming that the 2010 Philippine presidential election will push through, any candidate from a unified opposition will likely get an overwhelming victory, Global Source predicted in a March 5 report titled “Down to the Wire.”

—

“The endorsement of President Macapagal-Arroyo may prove to be the kiss of death for any aspirant, as it had been for most administration candidates in the 2007 senatorial elections,” the report said.

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090309-193082/Think-tank-cites-risk-of-martial-law-return

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Plan B – 2009 MARTIAL LAW?

Plan A is cha-cha. but Plan A has been rejected so many times that it already had a few versions –  Plan A-1, Plan A-2 up to Plan A-1098 and each attempt have been rejected.

we are now talking of just 9 months to go before 2010 presidential elections, Plan A-xxx although still alive may now be viewed with much suspicion if it truly has legs. 

when all else fails and Plan A-xxxx is done and still dies, time to go to Plan B – Martial Law! shall we see one of the secretaries of arroyo faking an ambush attempt very soon? for sure that arroyo secretary must be having serious talks with senator enrile for tips on how best to do it.

 

 

HIGH-STAKES POLITICAL STRATEGY
Think tank cites risk of martial law return

 

By Doris Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 06:55:00 03/09/2009

MANILA, Philippines—The chances of Charter change (Cha-cha) preempting the 2010 presidential election are slim, but there are risks of another “less peaceful route,” such as a temptation to return to martial law, US-based think tank Global Source warns.

Assuming that the 2010 Philippine presidential election will push through, any candidate from a unified opposition will likely get an overwhelming victory, Global Source predicted in a March 5 report titled “Down to the Wire.”

“With much at stake for those hoping to stay in power, aggressive action up until the time when Cha-cha becomes impossible to pull off, or right up to the scheduled 2010 elections, cannot be discounted,” it said.

“Clearly, this is a high-stakes strategy with attendant political risks,” said the report, written by Filipino economists Romeo Bernardo and Margarita Gonzales.

Global Source noted in its report that at least one highly placed military official and a few former military men were now talking of possible attempts to impose martial law, which President Ferdinand Marcos used to extend his rule in 1972.

read in full: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090309-193082/Think-tank-cites-risk-of-martial-law-return