the key reasons why a landslide win is possible for noynoy aquino
we this election is for aquino to lose villar to win and estrada to upset his opponents as the dark horse.
we think given the trends from the polls and the actions aquino and his opponents have executed in the past few days, we think aquino is not set to not just win, but a possibility of a landslide win is in the horizon.
these are the key points why we think a landslide win is now possible for aquino:
- aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning
- not once was aquino threatened by any other candidate in the polls
- his closest opponent, manny villar took drastic declines too close to the election. arresting the decline, recovery from it and reversing the trend is impossible to achieve given the the time available
- manny villar, aquino’s strongest opponent is now suffering with a declining trend
- erap estrada gaining in the polls came too late, he no longer has time to build on his momentum. he will fall short of his target.
- none of aquino’s competitors did anything dramatic to propel themselves to the top or bring down aquino
- aquino has sustained his stature, no huge scandal has erupted in the last few days
- aquino’s rating of 42% is formidable given that his closest rival, villar and estrada are at 20% to 19%, one half of aquino’s rating. that margin is insurmountable given just a few days from survey time to election time. this is not a close election anymore, it is a rout. one more way of appreciating the margin – even if you combine the ratings of his closest rivals, 39%, aquino’s 42% will still make him win this election.
the bottom line is that given the above, aquino with just a few days to go in this election has gained a very strong upward momentum while his closest rivals are on a decline trend (villar) and on a slight upward trend (estrada) but with no time to reach aquino.
an increasing trend only becomes viable if the leaps are very significant like the way binay is aggressively gaining on roxas. estrada’s upward trend is not as impressive as that of binay.
with just a few hours to go until the poll opens, the aquino campaign has much more to celebrate.