January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%. fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.
December 10, 2009, 7am - bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.
December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of which was yesterday.
Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.
looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.
the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.
that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time. unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.
the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.
we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.
manny villar pulled down by C-5 corruption, next to be pulled down by mother of all corruption – the arroyos
mar roxas in a speech said it first – Manny Villarroyo. it was a clever and interesting name and it caught us that we put than in our memory banks. but it was something not easy to accept and less easy to say it is true.
recent developments, though reading like a very complicated spy vs spy novel seem to point there may be truth in roxas’ witty musing of Villarroyo. PDI news says mike arroyo, the better (worst?) half of gloria macapagal arroyo is supporting manny villar and not gilbert teodoro.
it is a shocking development but it is something a certain puno could have cooked up. is it true? well, we will know in the coming days. there will be double to triple layers of denials in the coming days for sure from all camps concerned. but some truth will come out, just how clear it will be will need to be seen.
the key question is this – will villar be hit by arroyo’s kiss of death the same way that teodoro got hit by it? is there enough time to get that to hit villar?
villar based on the latest SWS poll is already being hit by the corruption axe, C-5 where there is really no closure, the whole thing left hanging in the air. it is bad enough that vilar is getting pulled down by a corruption charge, his next stop will be the mother of all corruption – being the erstwhile secret candidate of the arroyos.
for this to come at this late stage of the campaign is bad news for villar. there might be no time left to remove arroyo’s kiss of death on him. the villarroyo charge will get worst before it gets better and will take some momentum of build up. this momentum can last till election time. if that happens, the villar campaign can see itself taking the stature of estrada’s campaign. that will leave aquino the dominant front runner, a landslide win is now possible.
that will depend on a few factors – who has the best strategy on how to make use of this new development.
villar’s camp will be on the defensive for sure. teodoro if it gets over the shock and demoralization will also be on the defensive. and finally the aquino campaign can go on an offensive. and let us not forget, what will the estrada camp do with it?
the possibilities have been multiplied and that includes a resurgence of estrada’s fortunes. how much will villar get hit by all this? if he gets hit bad and estrada finds the right formula, we can see estrada emerging as a true contender in this election.
the word “untained” will be key to the aquino campaign. how to make use of it and how to use the word “tainted” on the other candidates will be the determining factor.
we have always had problems with the aquino campaign’s very weak strategic thinking skills as demonstrated in the unfolding developments of the past. we wonder if this has been solved by the campaign.
excellent strategic thinking skills is a pre-requisite in good times, it is equally a pre-requisite in spreading bad times for competitors.
who has what it takes to get this thing done?
mar roxas and loren legarda are on a virtual tie in this poll. this is a much harder read and a more interesting one. while their national totals are on a virtual tie, how they got there are very different.
roxas’ strengths are NCR and visayas which are legarda’s weaknesses. legarda’s strength is luzon while that is roxas’ weakness. there seem to be a clear divide among the voters for both of them in specific areas. it would be interesting to know what the explanations are for the disparities.
there is also a clear disparity between the two on socio-eco class. mar roxas’ strength is at the NCR while it is legarda’s weakness.
Lakas exec, 2 others join LP
By Maila Ager
MANILA, Philippines—(UPDATE) A ranking official of the administration’s Lakas-Kampi-CMD and two others have left to join the Liberal Party as a coalition executive admitted that about 30 to 40 percent of Lakas partymates have shifted their loyalty to rival parties, officials said Wednesday.
Quezon City Mayor Feliciano “Sonny” Belmonte, executive vice president for external affairs of Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats, and his vice mayor, Herbert Bautista, will formally join the party of Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III on Thursday, according to the senator’s campaign manager Florencio “Butch” Abad.
Bautista will seek the mayoralty post while the incumbent mayor will run for Congress.
Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri, vice president for Lakas-Kampi-CMD Mindanao, said a significant number of party members had left the group, adding more are expected to leave the administration party as the December 1 deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy draws near.
“Probably 30 to 40 percent of the party members already left,” Zubiri told reporters. “Well, you know as we say in politics, for everyone that leave there’s always an open door for somebody to come in.”
Aside from Belmonte, Zubiri said he was told that governors and a few city mayors were also planning to bolt the administration party.
Zubiri attributed this to the “problem on the popularity” of the administration’s standard-bearer, Gilberto Teodoro, and “political survival.”
the long wait is over – at last someone has agreed to be gilbert teodoro’s VP runningmate – edu manzano. manzano is more know for being an actor/tv show host and the ex-husband of vilma santos. he used to be vice mayor of makati but his most recent government role is as chair of the Optical Media Board. we see him around town raiding stalls of pirated CDs and computer software.
we do not know if there was some kind of process that LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD applied to choose manzano but we doubt if there was one. they will probably say there was and that edu came out as the best choice, but the truth is the ruling/admin party had not choice. all of the politicians they wanted to be teodoro’s VP backed out, even his own party mate, secretary ronaldo puno and manzano’s ex governor vilma santos.
lets see how the tandem of teodoro and manzano will work out. actors in nationally elected positions based on the last election tended to bomb ouot. maybe manzano will break the trend.
just think – edu manzano vs loren legarda vs mar roxas???? well….