nancy binay, daughter of vice president jejomar binay will run for senator. she released a tv ad, legally epal, with the tagline ”Kay Nancy Binay – mga bata gaganda ang buhay” (With Nancy Binay – children will have a more beautiful life).
the ad positions the senatoriable as pro children with the specific promises of improving education (“gaganda ang edukasyon”) and improving health (gaganda ang kalusugan”) leading to a more beautiful life (“gaganda ang buhay”) for the children.
it is an interesting positioning as it specifically places nancy on a pro-children promise. we do not remember political candidates having taken this positioning in the past. question is, is this enough to get her elected? is children’s good life a compelling proposition to voters? we assume some research has been done on this one.
while nancy’s advertising positioning and promise is specific to pro-children, it is not specific on exactly what she plans to do in promoting the “good life” of children through “good education” and “good health”. it does not specifically answer the question – how will she do it?
in advertising, what is missing is called the “reason why” or the support. it tells the audience how will the candidate deliver the promise, what will she do to make it happen.
from an advertising technical standpoint it does have a “reason why” – it uses her dad, vice president binay with copy that says “mana sa kanyang ama” (“takes up [inherit] from her father”) but does not say any specific action that nancy will take to improve education and health for children. all it does is to ride on the general popularity of her dad. after all, he did get elected vice president in the last presidential elections.
but jejomar is a weak reason why for the promise of children’s welfare – he is not known to be a children’s welfare advocate. in fact his ads during the vice presidential campaign were more on the general progress in the city of makati and the specific benefits residents of makati have gained while he was mayor there, children’s welfare was hardly mentioned.
the reason why, specially in political ads is very important. it gives specific promises as to what plan of action the candidate will do when elected into office. using a reason why that does not connect to the promise is of no help and of no consequence, it is like having none at all.
in this ad, nancy binay gave empty promises that we doubt will get her elected. it’s a WAWAM – what a waste of advertising money.
the bar exam bombing at la salle taft has turned a corner, the suspect has been identified, a certain anthony nepomuceno who works for a call center and is a member of the alpha phi omega (APO) fraternity.
the suspect surfaced and went to government authorities together with vice president jejomar binay and former DOJ secretary silvestre bello. binay and bello are both members of APO. the suspect apparently went to binay and bello to seek help.
binay as we found out in the last election is a prominent member of the APO fraternity. he claimed psot-election that he won the vice presidential post mostly due to the help of his brothers and sisters at APO. maany had wondered during the election how binay was able to overtake and eventually win the election over erstwhile leader mar roxas. binay’s secret weapon apparently is APO, according to him.
binay claims the suspect is innocent. the suspect apparently has said he was not even at la salle taft when the bombing happened. he claims he was in marikina where he bought a pair of shoes.
the police authorities have not arrested the suspect as they were still preparing the case. they said however the suspect was identified by 4 witnesses and was identified by a witness in a police line-up.
we now have a case of 4 witnesses identifying the suspect versus VP binay’s words of absolution giving strength to the alibi of the suspect. is an alibi stronger than eye witnesses?
we are now wondering, with binay’s intense loyalty to APO did the vice president make APO as a rope around his neck?
given his position in government, we think binay should have remained neutral and not pre-judge the case. he should have just “surrendered” the suspect, his ka-brod but say the proper investigation should be made to determine innocence or guilt. binay has come out to say the suspect is innocent. a big pie will be thrown on his face if the suspect is later on found guilty.
the current COMELEC and GMA7 unofficial partial tally of votes put jejomar binay and mar roxas to close to call with a spread of only 800T votes with binay leading but 6 million votes still uncounted. binay has claimed victory, saying only an electronic garci can change the outcome while roxas says he will win by a squeaker when the votes from visayas are counted, roxas’ bailiwick. both are saying these are based on reports from their supporters who are in the field.
however, both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls point to a binay win with pulse asia giving it to binay with a 5.3% points margin. with a 1% sampling error, that puts binay a slight winner. SWS gives it to binay a 2.4% points margin.
roxas saying the visayas as his bailiwick is being confirmed by the pulse asia exit poll where he dominates with 54.7% versus binay’s 25.4%. however, binay dominates roxas almost with the same large margin in all other areas – NCR, Luzon and Mindanao.
January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%. fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.
December 10, 2009, 7am - bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.
December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of which was yesterday.
Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.
where did all of this come from? what just happened?
those are the exact questions we asked ourselves when we read the news. we saw the rise of binay in the polls, but we did not expect his meteoric rise in the polls. we don’r remember seeing new tv ads or new statements made by binay to explain the movements on binay’s ratings. we thought it was just a halo effect coming from the rise of estrada in the polls.
for sure, the fall of loren legarda has a lot to do on this one. together with manny villar, loren legarda has been showing weak ratings. we think the supporters of legarda are abandoning him and binay is the beneficiary of that movement, not roxas.
now we have a real competition in the VP race. it will be an interesting run until election day.
Binay ties Roxas; Noynoy widens lead in new SWS survey
The vice presidential race continued to heat up as the elections draw nearer, with Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay tying Senator Manuel Roxas II, who previously dominated pre-election surveys.
In the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last May 2 to 3, Binay and Roxas received a voting preference of 37 percent each. The results were posted on Thursday by television personality Kris Aquino-Yap on her official Twitter account.
Kris is the youngest sister of presidential front runner Sen. Benigno Aquino III.
The survey was supposedly commissioned by BusinessWorld. The results are expected to be made public on Friday. BusinessWorld refused to comment on the matter, even as sources from the Aquino camp confirmed the results.
Roxas’ rating was two points lower, while Binay picked up 12 points from the poll conducted last April. [See: Roxas rating drops as Binay's picks up]
Sen. Loren Legarda, who previously ranked second, dropped by 12 points to score 12 percent.
In the presidential derby, meanwhile, Aquino has widened further his lead, getting 42 percent.
Former President Joseph Estrada, who obtained 20 percent, zoomed past former second placer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., who received a 19-percent voting preference.
Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. scored 9 points. — LBG, GMANews.TV
looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.
the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.
that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time. unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.
the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.
we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.
mar roxas continues to dominate, with 43% maintaining a wide margin versus loren legarda who is a far second at 23%, almost one half of roxas’ rating. legarda’s deteriorating rating seem to mirror the same trend her presidential partner manny villar is experiencing in the poll.
there is a huge difference in quality of ads between the legarda and roxas ad campaigns. legarda runs this melodramatic, slow and boring tv ads with weak to nowhere strategy versus mar roxas, uplifting, engaging and very real tv ads. when you see legarda’s tv ads – you feel like crying but you do not know if you want to cry because of her meaningless message and flat line tone of the ads or out of pity that she is running such crappy tv ads. it is hard to imagine what possessed her to run such ads.
the other news here is the surge of jejomar binay who gained +4% points. this maybe due to the wider exposure he has been getting through the numerous sorties they have been doing around the country.
today is the formal start of the campaign period for national positions. presidentiables launched their campaigns:
- noynoy aquino and mar roxas chose tarlac, the aquino hometown
- manny villar and loren legarda chose laguna, the birthplace of hose rizal
- erap estrada and jejomar binay had theirs in plaza miranda, the traditional miting de abanse venue for generations of politicians
- richard gordon and bayani fernando chose cavite, home to gordon’s hero ancestors
- gilbert teodoro and edu manzano chose antipolo because of feng shui. wth?
Teodoro was advised by friends, including feng shui experts, that Antipolo would be a good venue to kick off his campaign, said Reggie Velasco, deputy secretary general of the Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats.
“They said that the place is nice, the flow of air is good. Being in the east of Manila, it is where the sun shines, and because the place is elevated, Gibo will be situated on top where he can see the entire Metro Manila and neighboring areas,” Velasco said in a phone interview.
we were shocked to read about teodoro’;s choice and most specially his reason from choosing antipolo city. he prides himself with being a harvard graduate and a bar topnotcher and now we find out feng shui is his choice.
Aquino-Villar spread cut to 7 points
The key change from the previous SWS survey of December 27-28, 2009 is that Aquino lost 2 of his former 44 points while Villar gained 2 points, thus cutting the Aquino-Villar spread from 11 points to 7 [Chart 1, Table 1].
Estrada lost 2 of his former 15 points, bringing him at least 22 points away from Aquino and Villar.
The vote percentages of Teodoro, Villanueva, Gordon, Madrigal, De Los Reyes, and Perlas did not change significantly from December of 2009.
tonight in tondo, his birthplace, erap estrada formally announced what we already know – he will run for president. with him is makati mayor jejomar binay who will run for vice-president.
he made an hour long speech. i looked if he was reading off a teleprompter, i could not see very well. he made a relatively good speech. i will be impressed much if there was no teleprompter. he made sense most of the time, in some parts i was not sure what he meant.
he made a few mistakes in some parts. there was this part here he went through the SWS survey on hunger twice. it looked like he may have forgotten he had already mentioned it. he memorized his speech and his way of getting back on track was to repeat chunks of it.
we think arroyo will have quite a difficult time when erap starts to give speeches to the voters. in this speech, erap spent a lot of time talking about the injustice he suffered under arroyo and how arroyo’s administration has done badly on the economy and the country. the passion and richness of his anti-arroyo speech makes you think arroyo herself is running for president.
erap mentioned he is also doing this for his best friend fernando poe jr. who ran against arroyo and everyone suspects, even this guy named Garci, was cheated in the election by a margin of 1 million votes.
erap seems to be a man with a mission. and that mission will hit straight at arroyo.
we wish erap-jejomar all the luck in their quest.
Binay, too, gives up presidential ambition
By Allison Lopez
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 19:54:00 09/09/2009
MANILA, Philippines—Welcoming the declaration of Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III to run for the presidency in 2010, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay said he was dropping his presidential bid and was willing to
broker talks between the senator and former president Joseph Estrada on a coalition candidate.
Binay, president of the United Opposition (UNO) and a close friend of the Aquino family, said Aquino’s decision to run signaled that opposition parties should start unity talks.
“There is all the more reason to pursue negotiations among the parties identified with the opposition for a possible coalition. As president of UNO, this is an obligation I am taking on,” Binay said in a statement.
Binay said his own decision to no longer to run for president would make him an “honest broker.”
“I have always said that if my bid for the presidency will be an obstacle in achieving unity within the opposition, I am willing to give way,” he said.