loren legarda’s ratings in the poll to begin with was bad,, mar roxas dominating the polls for vice-presidentiables from the very beginning, with mar enjoying double the ratings that legarda was getting.
recent movements in the polls for the vice-presidential race show dramatic changes – with jejomar binay resurgent, roxas softening while legarda collapsing badly.
what? jejomar binay?
that is the question most have been asking, binay has not done anything spectacularly different and attention calling in the recent weeks., how did binay manage to now be in the running in the election?
first, it’s the halo effect from a resurgent erap estrada. estrada and binays poll results rose at about the same time. estrada gaining in the polls had a positive effect on binay.
more than that, binay’s poll ratings went up as he gained supporters from the collapse of legarda in the polls. it appears a large part of those who abandoned legarda went to binay and much less to roxas. binay was the biggest beneficiary of the collapse of the legarda campaign.
we think advertising has a lot to do with it as well. from what we have seen, legarda have had a lot more tv ads aired over binay. but a look at the ads of legarda tells us these were ads that she should have not aired at all.
the ads of legarda depicted her as the essential drama queen with her melodramatic, pa-drama effect delivery of her lines, the slow motion camera movements (or at least that is how it seems) and the ho-hum messages. the legarda tv ads was just too personal and intimate – the idea of loren legarda taking care of everyone, the mother hen who will fix everything.
what makes these ads worst is the way she delivered her lines. she delivered all of them in a hushed, slow paced, tear jerky type of delivery that it makes the whole ad insincere, fake and we are sure to many very funny. it was just too much on the emotions. or at least a trying hard effect on tugging at the hearts of voters.
we have written about legarda here before the election and we called her the drama queen for keeping us in so much in suspense if first will she run for president, then next as vice-president, then with what political party. in every interview during that time, she kept on the drama of suspending for all of us to watch the number of times she changed her mind and the length of time she needed to decide what to do with here political career.
we think in theses ads legarda simply carried true what she really is – a drama queen.
January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%. fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.
December 10, 2009, 7am - bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.
December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of which was yesterday.
Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.
where did all of this come from? what just happened?
those are the exact questions we asked ourselves when we read the news. we saw the rise of binay in the polls, but we did not expect his meteoric rise in the polls. we don’r remember seeing new tv ads or new statements made by binay to explain the movements on binay’s ratings. we thought it was just a halo effect coming from the rise of estrada in the polls.
for sure, the fall of loren legarda has a lot to do on this one. together with manny villar, loren legarda has been showing weak ratings. we think the supporters of legarda are abandoning him and binay is the beneficiary of that movement, not roxas.
now we have a real competition in the VP race. it will be an interesting run until election day.
Binay ties Roxas; Noynoy widens lead in new SWS survey
The vice presidential race continued to heat up as the elections draw nearer, with Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay tying Senator Manuel Roxas II, who previously dominated pre-election surveys.
In the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last May 2 to 3, Binay and Roxas received a voting preference of 37 percent each. The results were posted on Thursday by television personality Kris Aquino-Yap on her official Twitter account.
Kris is the youngest sister of presidential front runner Sen. Benigno Aquino III.
The survey was supposedly commissioned by BusinessWorld. The results are expected to be made public on Friday. BusinessWorld refused to comment on the matter, even as sources from the Aquino camp confirmed the results.
Roxas’ rating was two points lower, while Binay picked up 12 points from the poll conducted last April. [See: Roxas rating drops as Binay's picks up]
Sen. Loren Legarda, who previously ranked second, dropped by 12 points to score 12 percent.
In the presidential derby, meanwhile, Aquino has widened further his lead, getting 42 percent.
Former President Joseph Estrada, who obtained 20 percent, zoomed past former second placer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., who received a 19-percent voting preference.
Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. scored 9 points. — LBG, GMANews.TV
looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.
the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.
that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time. unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.
the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.
we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.
mar roxas continues to dominate, with 43% maintaining a wide margin versus loren legarda who is a far second at 23%, almost one half of roxas’ rating. legarda’s deteriorating rating seem to mirror the same trend her presidential partner manny villar is experiencing in the poll.
there is a huge difference in quality of ads between the legarda and roxas ad campaigns. legarda runs this melodramatic, slow and boring tv ads with weak to nowhere strategy versus mar roxas, uplifting, engaging and very real tv ads. when you see legarda’s tv ads – you feel like crying but you do not know if you want to cry because of her meaningless message and flat line tone of the ads or out of pity that she is running such crappy tv ads. it is hard to imagine what possessed her to run such ads.
the other news here is the surge of jejomar binay who gained +4% points. this maybe due to the wider exposure he has been getting through the numerous sorties they have been doing around the country.
this was aired in tonight’s prime time newscast at abs-cbn — a negative, tv attack ad versus noynoy aquino.
the execution is a talking head of manny villar and loren legarda with supers that state the attack on aquino. we saw the tv ad only once and the the ad attacks aquino on no/lack of experience and no/lack of achievement. aquino is not mentioned by name but these attack points have been floated around against aquino in the past.
we think the negative ad was aired as a tactical move to arrest the decline in villar’s poll ratings. latest pulse asia, SWS and manila standard polls is showing aquino widening his lead over villar as villar’s ratings started to deteriorate from the previous polling period.
we will post the ad here once this is made available.
today is the formal start of the campaign period for national positions. presidentiables launched their campaigns:
- noynoy aquino and mar roxas chose tarlac, the aquino hometown
- manny villar and loren legarda chose laguna, the birthplace of hose rizal
- erap estrada and jejomar binay had theirs in plaza miranda, the traditional miting de abanse venue for generations of politicians
- richard gordon and bayani fernando chose cavite, home to gordon’s hero ancestors
- gilbert teodoro and edu manzano chose antipolo because of feng shui. wth?
Teodoro was advised by friends, including feng shui experts, that Antipolo would be a good venue to kick off his campaign, said Reggie Velasco, deputy secretary general of the Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats.
“They said that the place is nice, the flow of air is good. Being in the east of Manila, it is where the sun shines, and because the place is elevated, Gibo will be situated on top where he can see the entire Metro Manila and neighboring areas,” Velasco said in a phone interview.
we were shocked to read about teodoro’;s choice and most specially his reason from choosing antipolo city. he prides himself with being a harvard graduate and a bar topnotcher and now we find out feng shui is his choice.
mar roxas and loren legarda are on a virtual tie in this poll. this is a much harder read and a more interesting one. while their national totals are on a virtual tie, how they got there are very different.
roxas’ strengths are NCR and visayas which are legarda’s weaknesses. legarda’s strength is luzon while that is roxas’ weakness. there seem to be a clear divide among the voters for both of them in specific areas. it would be interesting to know what the explanations are for the disparities.
there is also a clear disparity between the two on socio-eco class. mar roxas’ strength is at the NCR while it is legarda’s weakness.
the vice-presidentiables poll from SWS has the candidates clustered more close to each other with no one candidate dominating the polls. mar roxas leads with 31%, followed colosely by loren legarda.
at last – loren legarda joins manny villar as VP. but let’s wait till 3:30 pm for the drama queen to say it
AT LAST! we are celebrating here – loren legarda has agreed to join manny villar as his VP at the NP. this has been a long time waiting with not just one but several stop and go motion form the drama queen. we are extremely happy that the wait will be over.
wait a minute, let’s not put put out the champagne yet. the accompanying article says manny villar will formally announce loren as his VP today at 3:30 pm. a lot of things can happen from now till 3:30 pm given drama queen loren legarda’s track record.
come back to this blog around 4pm and let’s see if it really happens.
Legarda says yes to Villar
Team-up finalized at Sunday dinner
By Michael Lim Ubac
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:59:00 11/17/2009
MANILA, Philippines—It was a victorious day for two Mannys.
On the day Manny Pacquiao made history as the only fighter to dominate seven world boxing divisions, Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. quietly captured the heart of a woman he wanted to be his vice presidential running mate.
At a private dinner in Makati City on Sunday, Sen. Loren Legarda said yes to the standard-bearer of the Nacionalista Party (NP), who was with his spouse Cynthia, the representative of Las Piñas City.
Villar will personally make the announcement today (Tuesday) at 3:30 p.m. at the Laurel House, his residence, on Shaw Boulevard, Mandaluyong City.
Legarda confirmed this to the Philippine Daily Inquirer in an interview shortly after the dinner, which lasted three hours.
we have been waiting for this survey as we wanted to confirm the results of the september 2009 SWS presidentiable survey. in that survey, noynoy aquino gained a phenomenal 60%.
in this pulse asia survey, aquino is the dominant front runner with 44% followed by manny villar who is a far second with 19% which is less than one half of aquino’s rating. aquino dominates not only the national tally but also across all geographies and across all socio-eco classes.
we can conclude that aquino’s performance in the SWS poll was not a fluke given the same results in this pulse asia poll across all presidentiables.
the rankings of the other presidentiables are essentially the same to that of the SWS survey with villar at 2nd, followed by escudero at 3rd and estrada at 4th.
gilbert teodoro, the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD admin/ruling party standard bearer consistently got low ratings here staying at the bottom with only 2%. the other major presidntiables suffered in rating with de castro getting the largest deterioration at -12%.
this survey confirms that noynoy aquino is not only the front runner in this election but the dominant presidentiable. aquino is the presidentiable to beat in this election. while we are still a few months from the actual election and things can still change, the kind of lead that aquino has will be very hard for the other presidentiables to pull down.