we have four questions. but before that -
today, the executive committee of the ruling party/administration LAKAS-KAMPI chose their standard bearer – gilbert teodoro.
the news in today’s event is not only the choice in teodoro but also the one they did not choose and the one who was not in the room when the choice was made.
of the three, teodoro is the least popular, getting only 0.2% in the last nationwide survey of Pulse Asia held in August. he is the asterisk man. in research data tables, results that get less than 0.5% are usually represented by an asterisk, the number not anymore printed as a number takes too much space on the report and besides it is really of no consequence,
for fernando, the interesting part is to know what he will do tomorrow, now that he has not been chosen by his own party. fernando is definitely a much stronger presidentiable than teodoro. he has the reputation of being a no-non sense man who gets things done no matter how difficult as long as it is right and for the good of the city. we admire that of fernando. we like that of him except that we get nightmares behind the fear of the philippines transforming into a pink gotham city. he is a strong willed man and the man has ambition, he will probably not stop at being rejected by his own party.
we have to give it to fernando – his own party has shunned him very early with key figures of his party giving him uncalled for negative comments but he stayed on hoping against hope itself. he has determination. unfortunately for him, his party has determination for teodoro, not him.
to me the biggest news is the man who snubbed the event – vice president noli de castro. he was supposed to be anointed one by no less than the queen herself gloria macapagal arroyo. de castro has always been independent minded and he continued to show it here – choosing not to give in to the seduction of being the anointed one.
de castro snubbing the ruling/admin part is a big loss to the party, just a tiny shake for de castro. de castro has consistently been in the top 3 or top 2 in the presidential surveys. clearly he is the king among all the admin/ruling party presidentiables. losing such a great candidate is a huge loss for the party. what will de castro do tomorrow, that is another interesting question. whatever he does, for sure it will not be good for the ruling party/admin.
with teodoro, the asterisk man being the admin/ruling party standard bearer, we need to ask the obvious – what will happen to the them as a political party. it has not been well even before this event today.
fidel ramos has been making noise about his displeasure about the merger. he wants out. or he wants control. party members have been fidgety, nervous and anxious as it took a long time to decide on the standard bearer. the admin/ruling party reached the pits when in a desperate move, it even floated the idea of adapting manny villar as its standard bearer, an obvious desperate attempt to save itself for the obvious reason that villar is the best candidate among all of them since he has been topping the polls over many periods. asking your main competitor to be your candidate is the most stupid thing a party can do. but it did shamelessly and the answer they got from villar – NO WAY!
that leads us the last of the four questions we have. the first question was quo vadis teodoro? quo vadis fernando? quo vadis de castro? and quo vadis LAKAS-KAMPI?
cast your vote -
who is your choice for president
among the presidentiables for the 2010 election?
click your choice,
then click the “vote” button to register your vote.
note that the program will allow you to vote only once.
we will be posting summaries of the poll results when major changes occur.
click “view results” to view current count of votes.
poll started april 29, 2009
september 23, 2009; 7pm
villanueva continue to lead at 43% followed by escudero and aquino who are tied at 2nd with 15%. villar follows a far 4th at 9%, then bayani at 6%
september 15, 2009; 9am
noynoy aquino moves to 2nd at 15%, overtaking escudero who is now with 13% of the votes. villanueva continues to lead at 44% . villar is a far 4th at 9%.
september 12, 2009; 1pm
it seems noynoy aquino can’t be stopped, from nothing noynoy is now on 3rd place at an impressive 15% behind leaders villanueva now down to 32% at 1st place and right on the heels of escudero who is at a close 2nd at 17%. noynoy as of this writing has become a real threat to the leaders. this big time surge was powered by facebook citizens where we see a large army of facebook account holders came to this blog to vote. (read articles in this blog on noynoy aquino here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/noynoy-aquino/
just 3 days since included in this poll, noynoy aquino gains a big time surge in votes, now at 9%, breaking away from the laggard’s group of presidentiables. aquino is now 5th in the standings. the surge for noynoy have been brought about by an army of facebook account holders voting for noynoy. no changes in the rankings among the leaders.
september 9, 2009; 9pm
noynoy aquino added to the poll while ed panlilio and jejomar binay were removed. with the removal of binay, major changes in ratings but standing remain the same. villanueva continue to lead at 41%, escudero at 2nd with 19%, villar at 3rd with 13% and fernando at 4th with 11%. more changes in rankings and ratings are expected.
september 1, 2009; 8pm
mar roxas has been removed from the poll as he has withdrawn his candidacy for president. villanueva widens lead at 34% at top spot. he is followed by escudero at 17%, villar is 3rd at 12%. binay and fernando are tied at 10% on 4th/5th place.
read full history of this poll: here http://wp.me/pnw03-cr
news reports have it that by wednesday, the admin and ruling party Lakas-Kampi will announce their standard bearer for the 2010 presidential election. the choice is between gilbert teodoro and bayani fernando, both laggards in the suverys.
noli de castro a third choice seem to be out of the running as he seem to be uninterested in running as president. we don’t know if it is no interest in the presidency or no interest in running under the ruling party.
It’s either Gibo or BF for Lakas-Kampi-CMD
By Christian V. Esguerra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 20:31:00 09/13/2009
MANILA, Philippines – Vice President Noli de Castro has formally informed the administration party that he will not run for president under its banner in the 2010 elections —if ever he decides to run at all, according to a source to privy to the discussions.
De Castro’s decision sets the stage for the Lakas-Kampi-CMD to name either Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro or Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando as its standard-bearer.
The vice president, who ran and won as an independent in 2004, broke the news to Gabriel Claudio, the party’s secretary general, in a meeting last week, said the source who requested anonymity for not having been authorized to speak to the media on the matter.
Sought for comment, Claudio, also the presidential adviser on political affairs, said on Sunday he was leaving it up to De Castro to make the official announcement about the decision.
“We had an agreement that it would come from him,” he told the Inquirer. “It was never our intention to pressure him, to put any deadline on him. The party has its own mechanisms, processes and timetable and he has always known about them.”
“If he had any intention (to run) at all, he would have given indications, not only to the party, but also to the public,” he added.
Claudio noted the apparent absence of any effort by De Castro to present himself as a presidential aspirant.
it looks like the month of september is the key month for the 2010 presidentiable elections:
- noynoy aquino will announce his 2010 election plans.
- it is the month when mar roxas withdrew his candidacy. mar is one of the major contenders.
- other presidentiables will firm up their plans within the month as well.
- the admin party says they will announce their candidate by the end of the month.
- noli de castro will announce his 2010 election plans on september 15.
- the admin party has given de castro 1 week to decide on his plans.
- loren legarda might give in to chiz escudero
Lakas-Kampi to De Castro: You have 1 week
By Christian V. Esguerra, Cynthia Balana
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 04:31:00 09/08/2009
MANILA, Philippines—Make up your mind.
Vice President Noli de Castro has exactly one week to decide whether to join the selection process for the administration party’s standard-bearer in next year’s presidential election.
Legarda giving way to Escudero, says solon
By Christine Avendaño, Gil C. Cabacungan Jr.
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 04:51:00 09/08/2009
MANILA, Philippines—A member of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) Monday said Sen. Loren Legarda was on the verge of giving way to Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero as the party’s standard-bearer in 2010.
Agusan del Sur Rep. Rodolfo Plaza told reporters that “Loren will give up her presidential ambition [in favor of] Chiz soon” based on ongoing talks between the camps of the two parties.
arroyo “elated” by governors endorsement of presidentiable teodoro, a cellar dweller in surveys. opposition should also be elated.
arroyo elated over the endorsement of gilbert teodoro by 49 governors must have the opposition also elated for arroyo’s elation. gilbert teodoro is one of the cellar dwellers in the latest pulse asia presidentiables survey (read here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/08/25/pulse-asia-august-2009-presidentiables-survey-villar-builds-lead/) getting only a 0.2%. that means the opposition will easily beat the admin candidate.
we are actually confused by this elation of arroyo on teodoro. a more recent news article said arroyo had “anointed” noli de castro as the admin presidentiable candidate. (read here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/08/29/arroyo-anoints-de-castro-a-blessing-or-a-kiss-of-death/) so is it de castro or is it teodoro? “elation” does not translate to “anointed” and “anointed” does not translate to “elation”.
the other part of this news article is that members of the admin political party are highly anxious as they do not know yet where they stand. they have no idea who their presidentiable is and they do not know what the process their party is taking to get to that decision.
these party members are most probably feeling very insecure as there is so much news on the opposition side with recent announcements of interesting opposition presidentiables and the most recent drama behind noynoy aquino’s presidentiable plans.
their insecurity is well founded. without a candidate identified, they can’t make up their mind and more importantly they can’t promote their candidates. arroyo being “elated” over teodoro and at the same time “anointing” de castro adds to the confusion and division that news articles are reporting as occurring in the admin political party.
something has the be said about admin local government support for admin candidates. there was none of it in the last senatorial election. in that election almost all the admin senatoriables did not win the election and one of the reasons was that the admin barangay captains, mayors and governors did not campaign for admin senatoriables.
these are the same group of admin local officials who endorsed teodoro that arroyo is elated about. and that is the reason why the opposition presidentiables should be happy with arroyo’s elation.
Arroyo elated by govs’ choice of Teodoro
By Michael Lim Ubac, TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:36:00 09/06/2009 MANILA, Philippines—President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was “elated” by the news that 49 governors have endorsed the presidential candidacy of Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro.
“She was elated by it not because it was Secretary Teodoro but the one endorsed is a member of the administration party,” Secretary Gabriel Claudio, Arroyo’s chief political adviser, told dzRB radio.
The move by a group of governors endorsing the presidential candidacy of Teodoro shows that members of the administration coalition are getting impatient for the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD to choose a presidential standard-bearer for 2010, according to Mandaluyong Mayor Benhur Abalos. Read more…
this is rare in philippine politics, even among the opposition. its a good photo op. interestingly, key admin presidentiables teodoro, de castro and vice presidentiable puno were not in the group. the only admin presidentiable who was present was bayani fernando while mike velarde from the opposition was also not there.
does that mean those who did not attend plan to cheat in the 2010 elections? hello, garci you there? again?
No cheating in 2010, poll aspirants vow
By Philip Tubeza
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:06:00 08/31/2009
The aspirants—who included survey front-runners Sen. Manuel Villar, former President Joseph Estrada, and Senators Francis “Chiz” Escudero, Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, and Loren Legarda—also signed sworn statements, duly notarized, declaring that they would not cheat in the elections and would observe the rule of law if elected.
The event was also attended by Senators Francis Pangilinan, Richard Gordon, Jamby Madrigal, Metro Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, evangelist Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” Villanueva, environmentalist Nicanor “Nikki” Perlas, and Olongapo Councilor Carlos “JC” delos Reyes of the lay Catholic political group Ang Kapatiran.
Other aspirants who were supposed to attend but did not make it to the event were Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro and Interior Secretary Ronnie Puno. They were reportedly sick. Vice President Noli de Castro was not around, either.
arroyo anointing de castro as the “chosen one” puts de castro in a pickle. these are the things that de castro need to think about:
- the last senatorial election when almost all senatorial candidates of the administration lost in the election. the admin senators lost despite malacanang boasting about the GDP growth during that time and saying their political machinery was working for the admin senators. even senator trillanes won that election who was in jail during the campaign period and had little advertising. on the other hand many of the admin senators were top ad spenders but lost the election just the same. the easy conclusion is that an arroyo endorsement or being associated with arroyo is a kiss of death.
- arroyo is the most unpopular president since marcos – is arroyo’s backing and anointment worth anything? in other words, not much has changed since the senatorial elections when being associated with arroyo was a kiss of death.
- is arroyo’s anointment consistent with de castro’s image of being independent? de castro ran as an independent, will he give this up?
- will de castro’s refusal of arroyo’s anointment bolster his image as an independent?
- will it be the end of arroyo and the admin political party if de castro refuses the anointment?
- can de castro ignore the advantage of being supported by the incumbent president and party in power? the admin holds the majority in congress. is that worth anything? or worth losing?
- does de castro have a political machinery to back him up? maybe he does not need the supposed “admin political machinery”. is there really value to the admin political machinery?
- will accepting arroyo’s anointment be a strategic advantage or a strategic disaster?
tell us what you think.
Arroyo ‘anoints’ De Castro
By TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 05:55:00 08/29/2009
MANILA, Philippines — There should be no doubt any longer as to who President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo wants to anoint as the administration presidential standard-bearer in 2010, and as her would-be successor.
Vice President Noli de Castro has the qualities of a “good President,” Ms Arroyo said in a statement Friday, a virtual endorsement of De Castro’s future candidacy, even as the ruling party is still drawing up its selection criteria.
The President, who chairs the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD, issued the statement to thank De Castro for speaking well of the party, and for saying that he saw his current position as on-the-job training for the top post.
Press Secretary Cerge Remonde said Ms Arroyo was confirming that she wanted De Castro to be the party’s presidential candidate, while not wanting to preempt De Castro and party officials.
“There’s nothing inconsistent about it,” he said. “There’s nothing left to settle except the process and time.”
Ms Arroyo said that while she did not want to get ahead of De Castro’s decision, she wanted to thank him “for acknowledging the value of the administration party’s support and attesting to the earnest work that we do in the Cabinet as well as its significance on on-the-job training for the presidency.”
“The party, the Cabinet and I regard Vice President de Castro as a leader imbued with decency, capability, dedication to public service and genuine sensitivity for the Filipino masses that will make him a good President,” she said.
Ms Arroyo’s statement was relayed to De Castro via text message and released to the press.
De Castro has yet to issue a reply.
The administration coalition has been wooing De Castro, who ran as an independent as Ms Arroyo’s running mate in 2004, to be its standard-bearer in 2010. He is seen to be the administration’s best bet against the opposition front-runners.
De Castro was topping all presidential preference surveys for the past several months until very recently when he fell behind Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. and deposed President Joseph Estrada in a Pulse Asia survey, a fact that party officials have attributed to his silence on his plans and lack of television ads.
De Castro confirmed on Thursday that Ms Arroyo had asked him to be the coalition’s standard-bearer, although she said he would have to go through the nomination process.
He said he has not given an answer yet because he was still unsure whether to run for President.
Pulse Asia august 2009 presidentiables survey – villar’s lead jump aggressively, overtakes de castro
some points on this new poll results:
the major candidates:
- villar catapults to top place, overtaking de castro with an impressive gain this polling period versus previous. he showed great strength with a significant increase of +11 pts from previous period. he continues to be very strong in leading across the board, in all geographic areas and among socio-eco classes. villar is way ahead versus other presidentiables except in mindanao and the E socio-eco class where he ties estrada on the lead.
- estrada moves up from 3rd to as he continue to show strength and is surprising to be now at second. his strengths are in mindanao and the E socio-eco class.
- de castro from lead drops to 3rd place but is within range from estrada who is in 2nd.
- escudero is a strong 4th. his strongholds are NCR and the ABC socio-eco class. this can be a problem as he also needs to reach and build appeal in areas outside NCR and the poor. he needs advertising.
the “other” candidates:
- the other candidates need to look at this data seriously and must start some very serious marketing and advertising efforts as soon as possible if they intend to be a contender in next year’s election.
- or decide to bow out of the presidential race in the coming weeks.
- binay is just an NCR candidate as he gets a double digit rating only in NCR while in the other areas weak single digit ratings.
- it is shocking that fernando is not making any dent at all even at NCR, his theoretical stronghold. for binay to rate better than fernando at the NCR shows just how weak fernando’s candidacy is.
- teodoro not even getting a vote in almost all areas and socio-eco classes inspite of heavy advertising says he is totally not a factor in this election. he needs to rethink strategy or bow out of the race.
- we are getting very close to that time when the “other” candidates will need a miracle to even have a fighting chance to win.
The survey fieldwork was conducted from July 28 to August 10, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Among the major developments immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were the prolonged hospitalization due to terminal illness and subsequent death of President Corazon Cojuangco Aquino; the last State of the Nation Address (SONA) of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her latest visit to the United States (US); the unexplained growth in the President’s wealth since assuming the presidency in 2001; the increasing number of probable presidential candidates for the May 2010 elections; the controversies surrounding the selection of two new members of the Supreme Court and this year’s National Artist awardees; and the loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure caused by two powerful typhoons. On the economic front, inflation in July fell to a twenty-two year low.
August 25, 2009
the top rankings have not changed – escudero continue to lead at 23%, villar at 2nd with 16%, binay at 3rd with 14% and fernando at 4th with 13%. while the rankings may have not changed, the gaps have tightened and that is because of the increase in votes for the tail enders.
noteworthy is the big time surge for bro. eddie villanueva who after just 4 days of
being included in the poll now has 6% of the votes putting him at 6th place behind 5th placer roxas who has 7%.
this is the first time we have seen such a magnificent surge in the 2010 Presidentiables Poll. we did not see this kind of surge for newcomers like perlas, teodoro, panlilio nor madrigal.
the surge is obviously being fueled by villanueva supporters who are in the internet. they were probably just been waiting for us to include him in the poll. in fact, there have been complaints before questioning our decision not to include him in the poll. we said that he was not included because he has not declared his intention to run. in fact, we included villanueva in the polls on the day he announced he is a presidentiable.
there are just a few candidates who have a strong presence in the internet – these are villar, escudero, binay, fernando and now villanueva. we have seen the votes of these candidates surge at certain times when they start to ask their supporters who are also in the internet to go to this blog to vote.
we are particularly impressed with villanueva as this is the fastest, most massive surge we have seen in the 2010 Presidentiables Poll, congratulations to bro. eddie’s supporters.
vote in the polls and see the results here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/04/29/2010-presidentiables-poll-cast-your-vote/
this is SWS’ presidentiables survey conducted april 16 to may 6, 2009 asking the question “who is the best leader to succeed president macapagal arroyo in 2010.
we have been seeing this presidentiable survey and since then have found the question being asked in the survey somewhat interesting. the question is not a straight out question on who the respondents think is the best presidentiable, it adds a second dimension of anchoring it on gloria macapagal arroyo. respondents will need to first think of arroyo before they choose the presidentiable they prefer.
what the respondents is answering is not on their preference among the presidentiables but who they think is best to replace arroyo. they will need to define in their minds who arroyo is first, then choose the presidentiable.
it is in some sense a loaded question. more importantly, it does not at all reflect the situation that respondents will get into in may 2010 when they elect a president. by may 2010 when they vote, arroyo will not be a factor at all which then in many ways weakens the results of this survey.
highlights of the results:
- villar is on top at 29%, a slight increase from previous survey
- a significant drop for de castro to 21% from 27% that pushed him to 2nd from 1st from previous survey period
- roxas gains slightly and is now 3rd at 18%
- a dramatic drop for legarda, to 14% from 25%. also a dramatic drop in ranking from 2nd to now 5th
- a dramatic drop for escudero now 15% from 23% but retains his 4th ranking
- a dramatic rise in “i don’t know” or the undecided
the most significant development in this survey lie in two things: the dramatic declines in ratings among a few presidentiables and a dramatic rise in the undecided.
we need to cross tabulate and we do not have the data but what the results seem to say is that the dramatic rise in the undecided caused the dramatic decreases in ratings of some of the presidentiables. that seems to say many of the previous supporters of presidentiables escudero and legarda and to some degree de castro did not shift their support to other candidates but simply decided not to decide.
next on 2010 presidentiables – based on these results what can the candidates do?
SWS’s May 2009 “best leader to succeed arroyo” survey- 2010 presidentiables villar, de castro and roxas are top 3
malacanang through it’s political adviser, gabriel claudio, said noli de castro, presidentiable is the administration’s top choice as standard bearer for the 2010 presidentianl election.
did malacanang just give de castro a kiss of death? we really like to know what de castro did after he read that from the newspaper – did he celebrate or did he cry?
de castro has been leading the presidentiables surveys largely on the basis of being “clean”, uncontroversial and keeping 3 ten-foot poles away from arroyo, on all four sides of his body.
de castro enjoys the strength of being the incumbent VP, he is in power and with that comes benefits. he has very smartly maintained just good enough visibility compared to arroyo, which is just right given that he is a VP and yet has good enough presence. he is of course lucky he is not married to a certain mike arroyo and his children with the surname arroyo on them and that helps a lot on the no-controversy side.
we can say he enjoys good things from both sides of the political spectrum – being on the admin side and being outside of it. he is known as an independent, not really associated with arroyo and her pathetic performance ratings but not to the extreme of senators lacson and roxas who are rabid anti-arroyo forces.
malacanang now saying he is the top admin candidate may have given de castro 3 tons of mud on de castro’s face, after the kiss of death delivered on de castro’s smackers. arroyo gave the same kiss of death to the admin senatoriables in the last senatorial elections where almost all of them lost the election.
De Castro top administration bet — Palace
MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Noli De Castro is still the administration’s top choice for its standard-bearer in the 2010 presidential election, a Malacañang official said.
Gabriel Claudio, presidential political adviser, described as “highly speculative” the report that De Castro could end up joining another political party outside the administration coalition for his presidential bid.
“Definitely not—he’s still on top of the shortlist of presidential materials by the administration coalition,” he told the Philippine Daily Inquirer (parent company of INQUIRER.net) on Sunday.
“The report is typical of political armchair analysis and barbershop talk,” he said.