this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.
aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.
villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past. villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air. villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.
estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.
the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.
presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline. doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return for them.
Aquino opens up lead versus Villar
LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.
Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.
Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.
Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.
Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.
There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).
Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) survey, conducted from Jan. 28 to Feb. 3
- Aquino - 41.54%
- Villar - 30.63%
- Estrada - 11.66%
- Teodoro – 5.21%
- Villanueva – 2%
- Gordon – 1.7%
- Mardigal – 0.22%
the results are consistent with the most recent poll result releases of SWS and Pulse Asia where the rankings are about the same. this latest poll results show aquino and villar are the front runners although in this one aquino has a wide lead over villar. estrada is also 3rd here and teodoro 4th also getting 5%. almost all the polls getting just about the same results validates each other’s results as firm and a true reflection of voter sentiments.
fieldwork for this poll was end january to early february when the C-5 controversy on villar was getting headlines. TNS says that has affected the results for villar. that makes us think that corruption is most likely a key issue in this election.
it looks like C-5 will hound the candidacy of villar. also makes us think that should he win the presidency, just like arroyo, villar will have a corruption issue hanging on his head throughout his presidency. it was the ”hello garci” case for arroyo, it might be C-5 for villar. as in the “hello garci” case, the C-5 issue will not go away for villar. we think it is best that villar mop out a plan to get this issue to be resolved after the election, especially if he wins the election. he should do this for the sake of his presidency and the country. the country needs closure on this issue.
with teodoro reported to be 2nd highest spender in advertising with P407M spent and teodoro getting just 5% in this poll – it confirms our opinion that teodoro is being rejected by the voters across the board. with that kind of ad money spent, lack of awareness is no longer an excuse. this simply says teodoro is being rejected by voters.
read PDI article in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100221-254448/Survey-shows-Aquino-widening-lead