we came across an interesting website on twitter the other day (courtesy of @Simply_Clinton) – twitter audit (http://www.twitteraudit.com/). the website analyses a twitter account’s followers and determines what portion are “real” followers and what is “fake”.
we assume “real” followers are other twitter accounts with individual humans behind them that follow a twitter account. they are acquired over time who follows an account based on a match on interest, point of view, tweets that are simply interesting or where to get information from.
“fake” followers are bots (internet robots) who are added to the list of followers just to add numbers to the followers list. the thinking is that, the more followers have or the greater the number of followers, the more popular the twitter user/account is. we have all heard of a twitter following contest of some sort between the likes of justin bieber and lady gaga for example. that is the whole idea behind it.
we are guessing someone having a bigger number of followers will feel important or encourage others to follow the person.
apparently, there are internet services from whom you can buy twitter followers. social media practitioners apparently do this all the time for their clients. when you hire a social media practitioner, adding or padding your follower list is one of the things they do for you.
with this in mind, we ran some 2013 senatoriables twitter accounts to find out what is the ratio of “real” vs “fake” twitter followers they have on their accounts.
we do not know if these politicians actually “bought” followers and we are not even giving an opinion on it. maybe they are all “real” followers and that the twitteraudit.com is wrong or giving us bad data or they have a large number of twitter followers whose accounts have become dormant for a long time. these things happen. and we really do not know how accurate or reliable twitteraudit.com is.
take these with a grain salt, decide on your own what they mean.
for good measure, we also put here our own (@wawam) twitter audit and other politicians who are active on twitter. looking at the other audit results will give you a better gauge of what the data all mean for the rest.
the good news is that the country has two polling companies doing a great job of capturing the sentiments of voters – SWS (social weather station) and Pulse Asia. it also adds to it that they tend to conduct the polls at about the same time. with the respondent criteria about the same and survey timing very close to each other, comparing the two results is a very good thing to do.
surveys give the people a view, scientific and objective, of what others think about candidates and issues. it can help others shape or confirm their own views. in this complex world of ours, more information is always better.
for candidates and handlers of the candidates, it can be more than informational, it can be very instructive. they can use the results to re-shape, change directions or strengthen their winning strategies or fix and avoid their losing strategies.
but that is very much dependent on the skill sets of the candidates and their handlers on analyzing and understanding surveys. that is the first step.
the second and the more important step is formulating new strategies and plans based on the survey analysis and conclusions.
we are providing here a first step analysis of the survey results. there are a few more steps on analysis that needs to be done and more steps at formulating action steps in strategy change and plans formulation. but those are for another day.
in the meantime….
data sources: Pulse Asia & SWS
also read (click) :
dramatic gains for aquino & poe, dramatic drops for trillanes, zubiri & enrile – pulse asia february 2013 senatoriables poll
not much has changed among the top 3 ranking senatoriables, legarda, escudero and cayetano alan peter from previous poll.
for this february 2013 pulse asia 2013 senatoriables survey, 15 senatoriables are competing for the top 12 position. in order of highest to lowest ranks as follows:
- legarda (Team PNoy)
- escudero (Team PNoy)
- cayetano alan peter (Team PNoy)
- villar, cynthia (Team PNoy)
- ejercito (UNA)
- aquino, bam (Team PNoy)
- binay (UNA)
- poe (Team PNoy)
- pimentel (Team PNoy)
- honasan (UNA)
- enrile, jack (UNA)
- trillanes (Team PNoy)
- angara (Team PNoy)
- zubiri (UNA)
- gordon (UNA)
6 senatoriables are battling for the last 3 positions, the 10th to the 12th, senatoriables honasan, enrile, trillanes, angara, zubiri and gordon who are all tied.
at the bottom among the candidates of the two major coalition parties, UNA and Team PNoy, are mitos magsaysay and tingting cojuangco both from UNA. their rankings have not changed from previous.
among the 15 candidates fighting for the top 12 spots, 9 are from Team PNoy and 6 are from UNA.
among the top 9, only 2 are from UNA (binay and ejercito) while the rest are from Team PNoy. among the 6 who are battling for the last 3 spots, 4 are from UNA and only 2 are from Team PNoy.
with those rankings, if elections were held today, Team PNoy has a chance of gaining 9 out of the 12 seats at best or 7 out of 12 at worst, a clear majority of the seats.
Team PNoy has generally done very well in this survey.
dramatic increases in rank and rating were gained by aquino and poe, both by +9 places who are now tied at 4th place from previous survey at 13th place; and +11.8 percentage points and +11.2 percentage points, respectively.
3 senatoriables suffered dramatic losses in rank and rating, 1 from Team PNoy, trillanes and 2 from UNA, enrile and zubiri. all three lost 5 places in the rankings although all three still came within the top 12.
with 47% of voters not completing 12 senatoriables, dynasty candidates & re-electionists enter top 12
source : http://www.sws.org.ph/
based on this SWS 2013 Senatorables survey – 47% of voters cannot complete all 12 senatoriables while an equal number, 47% can complete all 12. (balance 6% are undecided or made invalid markings). on average, all voters will just be able to write down 9 names for the 12 senatoriable slots.
we think 47% unable to complete all 12 is a huge number. what that may are the following :
- there is not enough 12 “good men” among the 33 senatoriables running for office. most are unworthy of being elected
- not enough information about the candidates are reaching voters for them to complete the 12. this is just the start of the campaign period, let us hope this will change soon.
although still on the early stages of the campaign, at this point in time, these are the candidates who are benefiting from this situation and are getting better chances at getting elected :
- dynasty candidates – children, siblings or spouses of elected officials who are running for senator
- incumbent senators running for reelection
based on the survey, of the top 12, 6 are candidates for reelection – legarda, escudero, cayetano, pimentel, trillanes and zubiri. we consider zubiri for reelection since he did serve a term in the senate. a large number in the top 12 are dynasty candidates – villar, binay, ejercito aquino and angara. only 1 senatoriable, poe does not belong to any one of these groups.
the results of this survey would be so different if the 47% who did not complete the 12 spots would complete their list.
dynasty candidates are running on the basis of having the same family name as elected officials, that gives them a built-in advantage of being remembered more easily and have better chances of getting elected. not completing your list of 12 makes that advantage work for them for real.
completing the list of 12, say with names who are not re-electionists or dynasty candidates will have the effect of pushing down the dynasty candidates from the top 12.
the latest february 2013 SWS survey, on the 2013 senatoriables is characterized by dramatic drops and dramatic increases in rankings and/or ratings by some senatoriables. the dramatic drops are all on UNA senatoriables while the dramatic increases were on Team PNoy senatoriables.
this survey results are grim and bad news for many UNA senatoriables and for the whole party and great news for Team PNoy and specific senatoriables.
this is how bad it is for the UNA senatoriables :
- 9 out of the top 12 senatoriables belong to the admin PNoy coalition with the UNA opposition getting only 3
- 3 UNA senatoriables dropped out of the top 12 while 2 from Team PNoy barged into the top 12
- 6 out 12 Team PNoy senatoriables gained in rank (aquino, poe, villar, madrigal, trillanes and angara), 6 stayed the same (cayetano, escudero, hontiveros, legarda, magsaysay r, pimentel)
- 6 out of 9 UNA senatoriables declined in rank (honasan, ejercito, enrile, gordon, maceda, zubiri), only 2 gained (binay, magsaysay) while 1 stayed the same (cojuangco)
- 5 in 12 of the Team PNoy senatoriables gained in ratings (aquino, madrigal, poe, trillanes, villar), 4 stayed (angara, escudero, hontiveros, pimentel) while only 3 lost cayetano, legarda, magsaysay r). these three losses were minimal with 2 losing only 1 percentage point while the 3rd lost 2 percentage points
- on the other hand, 7 out of 9 senatoriables of UNA lost ratings (cojuangco, ejercito, enrile, gordon, honasan, maceda, zubiri), 1 the same (magsaysay m) and only 1 gained (binay).
- most of the dramatic loses in rankings and/or ratings were suffered by the UNA senatoriables – jv ejercito, migz zubiri, jack enrile, gringo honasan and ernie maceda
- consequently, most of the dramatic gains in ranking and ratings were gained by Team PNoy senatoriables – grace poe, bam aquino, jamby madrigal and cynthia villar
- no changes occurred for UNA bottom dweller mitos magsaysay, tingting cojuangco and ernie maceda
what can explain the dramatic loses by the UNA senatoriables?
we think its a brand positioning blunder by UNA. we read it first from statements from mitos magsaysay where she said UNA wanted “aquino to succeed” and that their role is to give “constructive criticism”. (read here: malacanang delivers THE BOMB on senatoriable mitos magsaysay)
a few days after that, jv ejercito basically said the same thing, plus the UNA spokesman. some of them even said UNA was not necessarily an opposition party. instead of saying they are an opposition party, they were saying things like they will be “fiscalizers”. why then would voters favor UNA when the president himself has his own set of senatoriables?
these were very confusing statements by the UNA senatoriables and the UNA party. people must have wondered if UNA was not the opposition party, what are they then? that can mean they are part of the administration. if they are part of the administration, why do they have competing senatoriables to that of the admin party?
this was a very basic and fundamental blunder by UNA. instead of differentiating themselves against Team PNoy, they were actually making themselves similar to their opponents. two of the key elements of brand building is uniqueness and differentiation versus competition. instead of achieving those, they were actually making themselves similar. the result is UNA’s brand positioning became invisible in the eyes of the voters. being invisible allows the voters to only see Team PNoy.
Team PNoy released their TV ads soon after. statements by jv ejercito and the UNA party in reaction to the TV ad did not help the party either and made it worst for them.
Ejercito explained where UNA stands when it comes to the Aquino administration. They support his platform of good governance but they want to keep the Senate as an independent institution to keep the administration in check.
“We admit that the President is very popular. We have supported the President on his thrust for good governance. But sometimes when you are too popular, you do not know anymore the pulse of the people,” he said.
ejercito’s words explain the problem UNA created for themselves. he did say the party supports aquino in his platform of good governance. aquino was elected by a landslide vote and continue to be the country’s most popular president on the basis of a good governance election promise and actions during his term. ejercito simply acknowledged aquino is doing well which we think to many voters would mean they should favor the senators aquino is supporting.
UNA was not defining themselves in the mind of the voters. what they were doing instead was propping up even more an already popular president and this president has his own list of senatoriables.
in marketing and advertising, you never talk about your competition, you talk about yourself and how good you are and what you can do that competition cannot. if you talk about competition, you do so only to show their weakness or failure. in this case UNA was not even mentioning any failure or weakness of aquino or Team PNoy. ejercito even praised the achievements and strengths of aquino.
UNA’s blunder is not just very bad brand positioning, we think its really a detrimental strategic blunder. we are guessing that they did research and found out that noynoy aquino is a very popular president and that noynoy aquino is the strongest endorser in philippine politics bar none.
UNA was unable to figure what they can do to counter this high popularity of noynoy aquino. we think their biggest error is thinking that since aquino is very popular, they should not go against him. and that thinking is very much like giving up on the election even before it started.
this kind of results in the surveys with the kind of competition and smarts or lack of smarts by UNA is not surprising. Team PNoy must be very pleased with the way UNA is handling their campaign.
Team PNoy takes the lead in latest SWS-BW poll
welcome to The Presidentiables Blog 2013 Senatoriables Poll!
the list only has the major senatoriables running for the 2013 election. the list is short of the 30+ official candidates for senators. the pictures of the senatoriables with different sizes and shapes were hardly chosen as they were picked up from whatever our friend Google Image gave us.
this is an unscientific poll given that no random sampling has been done and there was no vetting of respondents. anyone with an internet connection can cast their vote in this poll. obviously only those with an internet connection are the respondents in this poll which is hardly reflective of the actual voting population.
but candidates and supporters can use the results for bragging rights.
they can also use the poll results as a gauge of the size of the support candidates are getting out of netizens. respondents who vote here are social media users and they can be harnessed to promote the candidacy of senatoriables. as it has been shown in the most recent months, Philippine netizens who are in social media is a very potent force who can influence national life and behavior or attitudes of national leaders. a candidate who gets higher votes than others here can say they have bigger netizen support. the question then is how can this candidate harness the netizen support for more support in the internet and how to make this spill over to traditional media and real world voting by election time.
make your vote count! you will be given only 12 votes in this list. come back here from time to time and find out who is being chosen by readers of this blog.
thank you all and good luck, senatoriables.
please read comments for updates in this poll.
- the software will allow you to vote for a maximum of only 12 candidates.
- after you cast your vote, you can click “view results” if you are not taken to the results portion
- poll opened on february 16, 2013
- poll will close on day before election day
- follow us on twitter -> @wawam
note that the pictures here are arranged in alphabetical order based on their first name. that is nearly scientific.
if you have a twitter account, please use these hash tags:
key points on the top 12:
- top three continue to be legarda, escudero and cayetano (alan peter) in that order. they have been the same top three in the three surveys conducted by SWS
- among the top 12, poe had the largest increase in ranking, by 10 places to rank #10 from rank #20 in the previous survey
- other biggest increases in rank are for enrile (jack) at +2, now #8 and honasan at +3, now #5
- cayetano and enrile have been running tv political ads and may be showing its impact in the rankings
- the largest decrease in ranking is with villar (cynthia) who dropped -4 places, now #8 from #4. it appears villar’s heavy tv advertising is not working for her.
- it’s interesting that villar’s first name is officially listed in the Comelec and we assume on the official ballot as “Cynthia Misis Hanepbuhay”. this will probably be villar’s positioning in her ad campaigns
- other biggest decreases in ranking are on binay (nancy), -3 places to now #12 from #9 and zubiri -2 places now #7
key points on the bottom 13 to 24:
- a major increase was gained by villanueva who now place at #23. he was not on the top 24 in the two previous surveys. this is the result of his announcing his candidacy.
- the following suffered in ranking – aquino, madrigal, maceda, magsaysay (mitos) and casino.
we would recommend the following:
- villar to fire her advertising agency and immediately change her advertising campaign. her ads even though aired very early and spent heavily is not working for her.
- it is still too early to tell. these rankings will still change and some could be dramatic changes as the real campaign starts.
- candidates should be doing heavy voter research now for the purpose of improving or airing new political ads.
- ALCANTARA, SAMSON (SJS) (SOCIAL JUSTICE SOCIETY)
- ANGARA, EDGARDO (LDP) (LABAN NG DEMOKRATIKONG PILIPINO)
- AQUINO, BENIGNO BAM (LP) (LIBERAL PARTY)
- BELGICA, GRECO (DPP) (DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES)
- BINAY, NANCY (UNA) (UNITED NATIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- CASIÑO, TEDDY (INDEPENDENT)
- CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (NP) (NACIONALIST PARTY)
- COJUANGCO, TINGTING (UNA) (UNITED NATIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- DAVID, LITO (KPTRAN) (ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY)
- DELOS REYES,JC (KPTRAN) (ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY)
- EJERCITO ESTRADA, JV (UNA) (UNITED NATIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- ENRILE, JUAN PONCE JR.(NPC) (NATIONALIST PEOPLE’S COALITION)
- ESCUDERO, CHIZ (INDEPENDENT)
- FALCONE, BAL (DPP) (DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES)
- GORDON, DICK (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- HAGEDORN, ED (INDEPENDENT)
- HONASAN, GRINGO (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- HONTIVEROS, RISA (AKBAYAN) (AKBAYAN CITIZENS’ ACTION PARTY)
- LEGARDA, LOREN (NPC) (NATIONALIST PEOPLE’S COALITION)
- LLASOS, MARWIL (KPTRAN) (ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY)
- MACEDA, MANONG ERNIE (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- MADRIGAL, JAMBY (LP) (LIBERAL PARTY)
- MAGSAYSAY, MITOS (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
- MAGSAYSAY, RAMON JR. (LP) (LIBERAL PARTY)
- MONTAÑO, MON (INDEPENDENT)
- PENSON, RICARDO (INDEPENDENT)
- PIMENTEL, KOKO (PDP) (PARTIDO NG DEMOKRATIKONG PILIPINO-LABAN)
- POE, GRACE (INDEPENDENT)
- SEÑERES, CHRISTIAN (DPP) (DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES)
- TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV (NP) (NACIONALISTA PARTY)
- VILLANUEVA, BRO.EDDIE (BP) (BANGON PILIPNAS PARTY)
- VILLAR,CYNTHIA HANEPBUHAY (NP) (NACIONALISTA PARTY)
- ZUBIRI, MIGZ (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
first time that the country is conducting an automated election in its history. aside from that historic omoent, this election is also one of the most important in the country’s history.
you have gone to the polling places and casted your vote, now let us know how you feel, how the experience went and whatever your thoughts are.
tell us what you think, some leads for your to answer:
- areas of improvements
- what were the problem areas
- where were the problems
- what irritated you the most
- what went well
- what made you happy
- what are the good things
- what did you like the most
no question, noynoy aquino’s win in this election is a landslide win.
this survey is now open. please let us know who you voted in this election.
also vote in the exit poll for vice-president here –> Now open – The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Exit Poll For Vice-President (who did you for vice president?)
the misunderstanding on automated election – not for speed of voting process but for accuracy of counting
the election is on going in most parts of the country. the complaints are not on the PCOS machine malfunctioning but on the long wait for voters to get on with the voting. this is frustrating a lot of voters specially now that we experiencing a heat wave.
voters are complaining about the long lines leading to the polling precinct, the inability to quickly confirm the precinct number and the wait to get a ballot and vote. once inside the polling precinct, it takes the voter anywhere from 6 to 8 minutes from filling up the ballot and getting the PCOS machine.
the long lines are not being caused by the automated election system that the country is doing for the first time in its history. unfortunately most people thought that speed in voting is one of the things it is supposed to solve.
automated election was meant to solve accuracy in the counting of the votes, also to a large degree prevent election cheating and speed up the counting process, not speed in voting during the election process. where before it took the country to get election results after several weeks, the automated election will enable the country to get the results after 2 days at the longest.
what the voters need now is patience, an umbrella and water to drink while in line.
1 Million hits and going...
- 1,211,007 hits
- fearless forecast : PHL netizens will fall in love with @nancybinay in the next 6 years! more in love with Sen Sotto? ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- Duck! (photo at Palace Of Fine Arts, San Franciso, CA) pic.twitter.com/BOlhptuWsK http://t.co/gfSnlOcn0B ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- “@ABSCBNNews: Netizens declare Ser Chief, Maya 'mag-on day' bit.ly/13EsNZL |via @ABSCBN_Showbiz” - what the?? ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- @nancybinay says she does not know where to reply on SocMed - she does not know of the "send button"? flip.it/wSMqF ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- @nancybinay wants to regulate cost of TV ad spots. ano daw sabeh? flip.it/wSMqF ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- strike 1 on Binay, plans to do a Sen Sotto RT @nancybinay to take on social media, TV ads flip.it/wSMqF ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- Binay can't take criticisms, will regulate Internet. RT @nancybinay to take on social media, TV ads flip.it/wSMqF ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- Nancy Binay to take on social media, TV ads flip.it/wSMqF ... wawam tweeted 1 day ago
- Major damage from mile-wide tornado near Okla. City usat.ly/12FRcQO via @USATODAY ... wawam tweeted 2 days ago
- How to Get Lean: 25 Ways to Lose Fat Faster flip.it/BeXDo ... wawam tweeted 2 days ago
- zubiri & enrile win in ARMM precincts with 100% turn out. zubiri again??? http://t.co/r0XQfDbJ… ... wawam tweeted 2 days ago
- looking forward to getting enrile, estrada and sotto replaced as senate leaders. #gangsters ... wawam tweeted 2 days ago
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