nancy binay, daughter of vice president jejomar binay will run for senator. she released a tv ad, legally epal, with the tagline ”Kay Nancy Binay – mga bata gaganda ang buhay” (With Nancy Binay – children will have a more beautiful life).
the ad positions the senatoriable as pro children with the specific promises of improving education (“gaganda ang edukasyon”) and improving health (gaganda ang kalusugan”) leading to a more beautiful life (“gaganda ang buhay”) for the children.
it is an interesting positioning as it specifically places nancy on a pro-children promise. we do not remember political candidates having taken this positioning in the past. question is, is this enough to get her elected? is children’s good life a compelling proposition to voters? we assume some research has been done on this one.
while nancy’s advertising positioning and promise is specific to pro-children, it is not specific on exactly what she plans to do in promoting the “good life” of children through “good education” and “good health”. it does not specifically answer the question – how will she do it?
in advertising, what is missing is called the “reason why” or the support. it tells the audience how will the candidate deliver the promise, what will she do to make it happen.
from an advertising technical standpoint it does have a “reason why” – it uses her dad, vice president binay with copy that says “mana sa kanyang ama” (“takes up [inherit] from her father”) but does not say any specific action that nancy will take to improve education and health for children. all it does is to ride on the general popularity of her dad. after all, he did get elected vice president in the last presidential elections.
but jejomar is a weak reason why for the promise of children’s welfare – he is not known to be a children’s welfare advocate. in fact his ads during the vice presidential campaign were more on the general progress in the city of makati and the specific benefits residents of makati have gained while he was mayor there, children’s welfare was hardly mentioned.
the reason why, specially in political ads is very important. it gives specific promises as to what plan of action the candidate will do when elected into office. using a reason why that does not connect to the promise is of no help and of no consequence, it is like having none at all.
in this ad, nancy binay gave empty promises that we doubt will get her elected. it’s a WAWAM – what a waste of advertising money.
the bar exam bombing at la salle taft has turned a corner, the suspect has been identified, a certain anthony nepomuceno who works for a call center and is a member of the alpha phi omega (APO) fraternity.
the suspect surfaced and went to government authorities together with vice president jejomar binay and former DOJ secretary silvestre bello. binay and bello are both members of APO. the suspect apparently went to binay and bello to seek help.
binay as we found out in the last election is a prominent member of the APO fraternity. he claimed psot-election that he won the vice presidential post mostly due to the help of his brothers and sisters at APO. maany had wondered during the election how binay was able to overtake and eventually win the election over erstwhile leader mar roxas. binay’s secret weapon apparently is APO, according to him.
binay claims the suspect is innocent. the suspect apparently has said he was not even at la salle taft when the bombing happened. he claims he was in marikina where he bought a pair of shoes.
the police authorities have not arrested the suspect as they were still preparing the case. they said however the suspect was identified by 4 witnesses and was identified by a witness in a police line-up.
we now have a case of 4 witnesses identifying the suspect versus VP binay’s words of absolution giving strength to the alibi of the suspect. is an alibi stronger than eye witnesses?
we are now wondering, with binay’s intense loyalty to APO did the vice president make APO as a rope around his neck?
given his position in government, we think binay should have remained neutral and not pre-judge the case. he should have just “surrendered” the suspect, his ka-brod but say the proper investigation should be made to determine innocence or guilt. binay has come out to say the suspect is innocent. a big pie will be thrown on his face if the suspect is later on found guilty.
found this article at PDI. roxas supporters are blaming aquino supporters dropping their support on mar roxas as the reason for the mar roxas losing this election. that was their conclusion.
but going through the article, that does not seem to be the reason for the loss. as they themselves said, they had misread the competitive landscape and made strategic errors in identifying who their key competitor is in this election.
based on this article, rather than aquino supporters dropping their support on roxas as the reason for roxas’ loss, these were the strategic errors they committed that led to roxas losing the election:
- they became over-confident when they saw loren legarda unable to catch up. they gave too much focus on legarda.
- shifting resources away from roxas to support aquino was a big mistake. you never leave your candidate unattended to.
- they were unable to see the resurgence of jejomar binay and were unable to launch a counter attack at the right time
competitive analysis and competitive watching is very important in marketing and apparently also in a vice presidential election. this is where the roxas campaign failed. they made very critical errors in reading the competitive set and dynamics.
Roxas supporters blame VP defeat on Aquino backers
By Nestor P. Burgos Jr.
First Posted 07:01:00 06/10/2010
ILOILO CITY—Some supporters of Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II here blamed the defeat of the Liberal Party (LP) vice presidential candidate on supporters of President-elect Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III who allegedly junked Roxas in favor of Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay.
“It hurt us that Aquino supporters were sleeping with the enemy,” an LP leader on Panay Island told the Inquirer on condition of anonymity for lack of authority to speak on the issue.
The “Noy-Bi (Aquino-Binay)” factions, which included several core groups in the Aquino camp, tipped the balance in favor of Binay, who was running under the rival Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino party.
Caught off guard
The LP insider said Roxas’ supporters in Panay were caught off guard by Binay’s surge, saying they were focused on keeping Sen. Loren Legarda of the Nacionalista Party at bay.
“We were confident of victory against Loren so we shifted the focus of the campaign and concentrated on Aquino in the last few weeks before the May 10 elections,” he said.
“We saw (Sen. Manuel Villar) inching up on Aquino and decided to re-channel our efforts to Noynoy. We did not anticipate Binay surging ahead,” the LP insider admitted.
He said the Roxas machinery practically shouldered the campaign and funding of the LP campaign on Panay Island, including the campaign for Aquino.
“We dedicated our machinery and resources for Aquino and ended up being junked by some of Aquino’s supporters. That was disappointing,” the party insider said.
But he acknowledged that Binay’s last-minute but aggressive campaigning among mayors on Panay Island dented Roxas’ hometown lead.
Binay’s people approached mayors, even those aligned with the LP, offering money and trying to win them over to an Aquino-Binay tandem, the LP leader claimed.
The junking of Roxas by Aquino supporters and the last-minute campaign of Binay supporters are seen as the reason Roxas did not lead by as large a margin as expected even in his supposed bailiwicks.
In Capiz, Roxas won over Binay with a margin of 116,526 votes—204,839 votes for Roxas against 88,313 votes for Binay.
the current COMELEC and GMA7 unofficial partial tally of votes put jejomar binay and mar roxas to close to call with a spread of only 800T votes with binay leading but 6 million votes still uncounted. binay has claimed victory, saying only an electronic garci can change the outcome while roxas says he will win by a squeaker when the votes from visayas are counted, roxas’ bailiwick. both are saying these are based on reports from their supporters who are in the field.
however, both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls point to a binay win with pulse asia giving it to binay with a 5.3% points margin. with a 1% sampling error, that puts binay a slight winner. SWS gives it to binay a 2.4% points margin.
roxas saying the visayas as his bailiwick is being confirmed by the pulse asia exit poll where he dominates with 54.7% versus binay’s 25.4%. however, binay dominates roxas almost with the same large margin in all other areas – NCR, Luzon and Mindanao.
Comelec website down, hotlines announced
MANILA, Philippines – Due to the unexpected number of hits on Election Day, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) website has become unavailable for voters and the general public, as of posting time.
“Unfortunately, there are too many people visiting the website now. Obviously, the service is not accessible as we want it to be,” Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said in an interview on ANC Monday morning.
“Traffic to visit the Comelec website was more than what we had anticipated. We doubled the bandwidth. Unfortunately, things happen so we’re taking remedial steps to still allow people to check on the precincts,” he added.
Larrazabal, chairman of the poll automation steering committee, announced that the precinct finder on the Comelec website will be taken out.
Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec. The hotlines are
The Comelec commissioner noted that the bandwidth of the poll body’s website was increased to 10 megabits per second (Mbps) from 5 Mbps.
As for the election results, Larrazabal said the Comelec will release the Uniform Resource Locator (URL) later in the day.
we this election is for aquino to lose villar to win and estrada to upset his opponents as the dark horse.
we think given the trends from the polls and the actions aquino and his opponents have executed in the past few days, we think aquino is not set to not just win, but a possibility of a landslide win is in the horizon.
these are the key points why we think a landslide win is now possible for aquino:
- aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning
- not once was aquino threatened by any other candidate in the polls
- his closest opponent, manny villar took drastic declines too close to the election. arresting the decline, recovery from it and reversing the trend is impossible to achieve given the the time available
- manny villar, aquino’s strongest opponent is now suffering with a declining trend
- erap estrada gaining in the polls came too late, he no longer has time to build on his momentum. he will fall short of his target.
- none of aquino’s competitors did anything dramatic to propel themselves to the top or bring down aquino
- aquino has sustained his stature, no huge scandal has erupted in the last few days
- aquino’s rating of 42% is formidable given that his closest rival, villar and estrada are at 20% to 19%, one half of aquino’s rating. that margin is insurmountable given just a few days from survey time to election time. this is not a close election anymore, it is a rout. one more way of appreciating the margin – even if you combine the ratings of his closest rivals, 39%, aquino’s 42% will still make him win this election.
the bottom line is that given the above, aquino with just a few days to go in this election has gained a very strong upward momentum while his closest rivals are on a decline trend (villar) and on a slight upward trend (estrada) but with no time to reach aquino.
an increasing trend only becomes viable if the leaps are very significant like the way binay is aggressively gaining on roxas. estrada’s upward trend is not as impressive as that of binay.
with just a few hours to go until the poll opens, the aquino campaign has much more to celebrate.
loren legarda’s ratings in the poll to begin with was bad,, mar roxas dominating the polls for vice-presidentiables from the very beginning, with mar enjoying double the ratings that legarda was getting.
recent movements in the polls for the vice-presidential race show dramatic changes – with jejomar binay resurgent, roxas softening while legarda collapsing badly.
what? jejomar binay?
that is the question most have been asking, binay has not done anything spectacularly different and attention calling in the recent weeks., how did binay manage to now be in the running in the election?
first, it’s the halo effect from a resurgent erap estrada. estrada and binays poll results rose at about the same time. estrada gaining in the polls had a positive effect on binay.
more than that, binay’s poll ratings went up as he gained supporters from the collapse of legarda in the polls. it appears a large part of those who abandoned legarda went to binay and much less to roxas. binay was the biggest beneficiary of the collapse of the legarda campaign.
we think advertising has a lot to do with it as well. from what we have seen, legarda have had a lot more tv ads aired over binay. but a look at the ads of legarda tells us these were ads that she should have not aired at all.
the ads of legarda depicted her as the essential drama queen with her melodramatic, pa-drama effect delivery of her lines, the slow motion camera movements (or at least that is how it seems) and the ho-hum messages. the legarda tv ads was just too personal and intimate – the idea of loren legarda taking care of everyone, the mother hen who will fix everything.
what makes these ads worst is the way she delivered her lines. she delivered all of them in a hushed, slow paced, tear jerky type of delivery that it makes the whole ad insincere, fake and we are sure to many very funny. it was just too much on the emotions. or at least a trying hard effect on tugging at the hearts of voters.
we have written about legarda here before the election and we called her the drama queen for keeping us in so much in suspense if first will she run for president, then next as vice-president, then with what political party. in every interview during that time, she kept on the drama of suspending for all of us to watch the number of times she changed her mind and the length of time she needed to decide what to do with here political career.
we think in theses ads legarda simply carried true what she really is – a drama queen.
January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%. fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.
December 10, 2009, 7am - bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.
December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of which was yesterday.
Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.
please note latest on this one — COMELEC’s precinct finder is down, overwhlemed by hits. they have given hotline numbers to call.
Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec. The hotlines are
try this out, confirm if you are a registered voter and find your precinct number, click here:
where did all of this come from? what just happened?
those are the exact questions we asked ourselves when we read the news. we saw the rise of binay in the polls, but we did not expect his meteoric rise in the polls. we don’r remember seeing new tv ads or new statements made by binay to explain the movements on binay’s ratings. we thought it was just a halo effect coming from the rise of estrada in the polls.
for sure, the fall of loren legarda has a lot to do on this one. together with manny villar, loren legarda has been showing weak ratings. we think the supporters of legarda are abandoning him and binay is the beneficiary of that movement, not roxas.
now we have a real competition in the VP race. it will be an interesting run until election day.
Binay ties Roxas; Noynoy widens lead in new SWS survey
The vice presidential race continued to heat up as the elections draw nearer, with Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay tying Senator Manuel Roxas II, who previously dominated pre-election surveys.
In the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last May 2 to 3, Binay and Roxas received a voting preference of 37 percent each. The results were posted on Thursday by television personality Kris Aquino-Yap on her official Twitter account.
Kris is the youngest sister of presidential front runner Sen. Benigno Aquino III.
The survey was supposedly commissioned by BusinessWorld. The results are expected to be made public on Friday. BusinessWorld refused to comment on the matter, even as sources from the Aquino camp confirmed the results.
Roxas’ rating was two points lower, while Binay picked up 12 points from the poll conducted last April. [See: Roxas rating drops as Binay's picks up]
Sen. Loren Legarda, who previously ranked second, dropped by 12 points to score 12 percent.
In the presidential derby, meanwhile, Aquino has widened further his lead, getting 42 percent.
Former President Joseph Estrada, who obtained 20 percent, zoomed past former second placer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., who received a 19-percent voting preference.
Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. scored 9 points. — LBG, GMANews.TV