The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll closed – #1-villanueva; #2-gordon; #3-teodoro; #4-aquino

several tens of thousands voted in our poll here at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog  Poll which was first opened on december 2, 2009. this is probably one of the most successful internet poll on the 2010 presidentiables given the sheer number of voters.

this was the 2nd presidentiables poll we opened here with the first one including the undeclared but claimed candidates. this poll only includes the official COMELEC list of presidentiables.

we like to thank everyone for viting in the polls and posting your comments her.

on may 10, we will open a new poll – an exit poll. you will be asked to vote the presidentiable you actually voted in the election.

eddie villanueva

erap estrada

gilbert teodoro

jamby madrigal

jc de los reyes

manny villar

nicanor perlas

noynoy aquino

richard gordon

know your candidate better and find out specifics on all the other candidates,  compare them,  click here :

• platform of government - published platforms of goverment of the presidentiables
• presidentiables stand on issues - know the stand of all the presidentiables on specific issues and topics

 

manny villar shows vulnerability – villar’s voter base an open path to victory for laggards

in marketing, this is under the heading “source of business”. it is a mostly forgotten question by many brand managers but it is a very critical question.

in preparing a marketing plan specially for new brands to be launched in the market, that should be one of the first questions that need to be asked – where will this brand get market share from?

markets are never 100% virgin markets.  new products are launched into the market and they will seek to replace a product or service that is already existing. when you launch a brand, you need to ask yourself the question – what existing brand or service will my new brand replace.

it’s the same thing in elections. if your candidate is not in the top and you want to win the election, in drafting your winning strategy for the laggard, the question you need to ask is this – who among the presidentiables will you target for supporters?

based on the latest Pulse Asia poll (read: March 2010 Pulse Asia Poll: villar rating drops, aquino lead widens, no change among laggards – point of no return?), villar’s declining ratings seem to indicate his supporters are prime target for other presidentiables. villar’s voter base seem to be the more fluid among the top 3 contenders.

aquino’s base has not moved much at the current level, estrada has been relatively secure and in fact in other surveys seem to be moving upwards but villar has been on a constant move. it used to be moving constantly upward until the last survey dates when his ratings went down instead. for it to move downwards at this late stage in the campaign is a very serious matter.

getting  close to the ending of  the campaign period might not give him enough time to recover or re-convince those he already lost. the only thing going for him is that the number of “undecided”  increased.  but even the undecided are also prime target for the other presidentiables.

if the laggards are developing their win strategies now, the wisest thing to do is to target villar supporters. it is i think a newly opened  path to victory.  

~~~~~a mindscape landmark~~~~~
carlo arvisu

 

March 2010 Pulse Asia Poll: villar rating drops, aquino lead widens, no change among laggards – point of no return?

villar’s rating in the latest pulse asia poll drops 4% points while aquino’s rating moves up by 1% point, giving aquino a wider lead, by + 7%. these results are highly consistent with the SWS poll (click here: march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays)

villar’s weakening position here confirms the red warning flag we raised on villar (read here: march 2010 SWS poll results – a big red flag is up for manny villar). there is a fundamental weakness that has emerged in villar’s campaign and it is showing now that may show itself smartly in the next poll if not addressed.

the widening lead being enjoyed by aquino, however, is not enough reason for celebration for aquino. the lead is not due to aquino strengthening but rather villar weakening. it may indicate that aquino has a large base of fiercely loyal supporters or that his opponents has not yet discovered aquino’s weakness. however, the poll results seem indicate villar’s supporters are vulnerable.

that is good news for erap estrada who is following villar at 3rd. in fact that is good news for everyone else, specially those at the laggards group.

we think we have reached a point of no return here. unless major developments or major screw ups occur, the standings are most likely going to hold until election time. with just a few weeks before election, there is simply not enough time to do anything else.

manny villar jumps to 2nd as the presidentiable who must not win the election poll

this is a poll where respondents are asked to nominate the presidentiables who they think must NOT win the 2010 election.

latest results puts estrada on top, followed by villar then aquino, the top 3 presidentiables in the SWS and Pulse Asia polls. it is interesting that villar in recent weeks got a surge of votes in this poll.

vote and the poll and read the results here–> manny villar jumps to 2nd in presidentiables poll who must not win in the 2010 presidential election

march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays

this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.

aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but  he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.

villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past.  villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air.  villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.

estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.

the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.

presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline.  doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return  for them.

Aquino opens up lead versus Villar

LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.

Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.

Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.

Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.

Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.

There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).

source: http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=8479

Pulse Asia February 2010 Presidentiables Poll : villar rating drops on corruption issue

it is interesting how the national surveys seem to be releasing consistent findings. this latest pulse asia poll result conducted late february is consistent with the findings of the TNS survey result, another national poll. (read here: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5)

this pulse asia  poll shows aquino still the front runner with no statistical change from previous poll with a of 36%. the poll has a margin error of +/12% at the 95% confidence level. 

villar was unable to continue to push up his rating and in fact suffered a loss of -6% points to now 29%. villar was on a continuous growing trend in previous polls.

we think villar’s loss was due to the C-5 controversy that he found himself at the start of the year that peaked with the speech he delivered at the senate denying there was any wrong doing, something that occurred during the fieldwork of this poll.

we wrote previously on this issue when TNS released it’s poll results.

 it looks like C-5 will hound the candidacy of villar. also makes us think that should he win the presidency, just like arroyo, villar will have a corruption issue hanging on his head throughout his presidency. it was the ”hello garci” case for arroyo, it might be C-5 for villar.  as in the “hello garci” case, the C-5 issue will not go away for villar. we think it is best that villar mop out a plan to get this issue to be resolved after the election, especially if he wins the election. he should do this for the sake of his presidency and the country.   the country needs closure on this issue.

click: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5

it was also at around that time when noynoy aquino changed his advertising campaign from the badly strategized rap tv ad targeting young voters to the more hard hitting and focused “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ads.

by a happy coincidence (or planned conspiracy by the noynoy camp), corruption was directly brought up by aquino as an election issue and his message while the the C-5 corruption controversy was heating up in the senate. the C-5 issues has been there for months but disappeared from the radar only to reappear interestingly during the heating up of the presidential campaign.

corruption we think  probably belongs to the top 3 issues voters have in this coming election. we also think it is one of the reasons why aquino continues to float as top contender in this election as it is one of the enduring brand images of aquino. aquino as seen by the people as clean and incorruptible given the legacy he and his family holds in the minds of voters. 

on the other hand, corruption is the enduring legacy of president arroyo . though unconfirmed, it is a sticking point on arroyo with many corruption scandals unresolved. people are tired of both arroyo and corruption.

aquino having his parents as heroes of  the country, ninoy and cory enjoys an image of  it is one thing that noynoy will not do.

it was great timing that  aquino’s ads spoke of no corruption for him  and corruption was the issue being hurled on villar. 

in today’s PDI headline story, it said it was the Villarroyo charge that pulled villar’s ratings. we disagree. the charge that villar is arroyo’s secret presidentiable did not really get a lot of media play compared to the C-5 and corruption messages of aquino. 

Villarroyo was mentioned by mar roxas at the tail end of the C-5 controversy and got some press play but it was really not explained or given enough meat for the people to understand and remember it.  the C-5 controversy on the other hand got long and in-depth media coverage by the press and extended for a few weeks.

it appears the voters understood what the C-5 is really about at its core. they were able to see that this goes beyond senators having a lover’s quarrel or a man of power exerting undue influence but as a form of corruption.

in simplistic terms, the voters had this in their minds – aquino who is clean versus villar who is tainted. for a moment there villar got defined as corrupt and aquino re-confirmed as not corrupt.

the aquino and villar campaigns should look at this poll results very closely and understand how it got there and what are the implications. they should do more in-depth study and analysis and conduct further research. we think doing this and extracting the appropriate insights  has a very strong possibility that it will give them the winning formula for this election.

(view rap ad here: noynoy aquino’s new tv ad – pinoy noynoy rap,
read here : noynoy aquino’s “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ad – the power of credibility in a powerful tv ad)

 

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the:

• (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar;

the 2010 Presidentiables Poll officially closed – will restart on december 1 with official list of presidentiables

click here to vote in the newly opened polls:

for the 2010 presidentiables: gordon closes gap vs villanueva in 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll

for the 2010 vice-presidentiables: bayani fernando dominant at 2010 Vice-Presidentiables BlogPoll widens lead further

for the 2010 senatoriables: miriam defensor santiago tops 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll for senators

for presidentiables you WILL NOT VOTE and shoule NOT WIN: erap estrada takes dominant lead in 2010 Presidentiables Poll – the presidentiable who should not win

 

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eddie villanueva

november 7, 2009; 10pm
villanueva’s lead in this poll drops signficantly to 38% due to a surge in votes for escudero at 2nd with 20%. aquino remains at 3rd with 17%

october 23, 2009; 10pm
loren legarda was removed from the presidentiables list. villanueva continue to lead, followed by escudero, then aquino.

september 23, 2009; 7pm
villanueva  continue to lead at 43% followed by escudero and aquino who are tied at 2nd with 15%. villar follows a far 4th at 9%, then bayani at 6%