end-December SWS presidentiables poll – aquino remains formidable at #1, villar moves up by keeping laggards at bay, takes the undecided and others

this is the data from the latest SWS presidentiables poll which was commissioned by congressman zamora, an NP member. we are comparing the latest poll results, which was conducted december 27 to 28, 2009 to the SWS december 5-10, 2009 poll commissioned by business world (click here to read: SWS Business World Presidentiable Poll – aquino has dominant lead at 46.2%). we do not have yet the SWS data tables, so we are picking up the numbers from the PDI news article.

• Noynoy Aquino : 44% (dec 27-28) from 46.2% (dec 5-10) (2.2% loss)
• Manny Villa : 33% from 27%  (+6% gain)
• Erap Estrada : 15% from 16% (+1% gain)
• Gilbert Teodoro : 5% from 4.6% (+0.4% gain)
• Eddie Villanueva : 1% from 1.1% (-0.1% loss)
• Richard Gordon : 0.5% from 0.9% (-0.4% loss)
• Undecided : 1% from 3.7% (-2.7% loss)

first of all, note that it is a very bad idea to compare the latest poll conducted december 27-28 versus the december 5-10 poll because the design of the two polls are different. the early december poll had a lot more choices of presidentiable names for the respondents to choose from. that survey included the names of lozano, crespo and perlas. the late december poll probably has only 8 names on it which are COMELEC’s official list of candidates.

a difference in number of names to choose from affects the distribution of the votes from a statistics standpoint. there is also a difference in the way  the respondents make their choice.

another point – conducting this survey between christmas and new year is a very bad idea. any research agency will tell you conducting surveys of any kind during that period is not advisable as respondents tend to too preoccupied with the christmas and new year celebrations that their answers may not be as reliable compared to conducting surveys in dates other than those. the conventional wisdom is that no surveys are conducted from december 1 to until about the 1st week of january.

having said that, we should take this analysis with a grain of salt.

aquino continue to do well in this poll – he is still the dominant front runner in the poll. aquino is correct to say he has “staying power”. more importantly, the 2.2% loss of aquino from previous poll is meaningless as it probably falls within the  margin of  error.  that means statistically, aquino’s ratings have  not changed from the previous poll.

villar did very well in this poll, he gained +6%, a statistically significant gain. this is a tribute to the heavy advertising that villar has been airing.

villar gained not from aquino but from the other presidentiables like estrada and gordon and the other names that were included in the previous poll and now excluded in the latest poll. more importantly, villar gained from the   ”undecided”.

the key conclusion here is that villar is a real threat to the laggards group while he is unable to get switchers from aquino. this can mean aquino supporters are fiercely loyal and that villar’s efforts have no to little effect on aquino’s followers.

nevertheless, villar is a threat to aquino in this election. there is still time for villar to figure out how to get aquino supporters to switch to him.

this latest survey continue to confirm our prediction that this election will be one between aquino and villar.

unlike mass consumer products marketing and traditional marketing, political marketing is a very different animal all together. we think that except for villar, all other presidentiables are approaching this in the wrong marketing and advertising sense.

NP camp solicited latest SWS survey

By Michael Lim Ubac
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:08:00 01/09/2010

MANILA, Philippines—The lead of Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III over his nearest rival, Sen. Manny Villar, of the Nacionalista Party has been narrowed to 11 percent, according to a recent Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by a Villar ally.

teodoro’s performance during the ondoy/pepeng floods and maguindanao massacre failed to help in his election bid

— this is next in 2010 Presidentiables—

SWS November Presidentiables Poll – aquino holds dominant lead, villar moves up to be a real threat, teodoro stays at no consequence

some points:

• aquino holds his dominant lead in this poll which is quite surprising considering his 60% achievement was thought of as mostly coming from the goodwill of cory’s. holding that  dominant rating may mean aquino is doing this on his own power ans strength.
• villar is the true contender in this election aggressively moving up by 8% points. this means villar continues to build his constituency and seems to be separate from that of aquino.
• escudero coming in at 3rd and going up aggressively by 12% points, the highest growth this survey time is very surprising. had escudero continued his presidential run, he could have been a factor. question now is where will his supporters go to in the next survey? that is a huge chunk up for grabs.
• estrada ends up with a respectable 4th place at 18%. it seems estrada has maintained his power base.
• a big disappointment is teodoro who grew only by +4% points, just a point shy of the +/- 3 pts margin of error. we were expecting teodoro to grow much larger than this and climb up in ranking. staying at this level may mean he is a non-factor in this election.
• the others, villanueva, perlas, madrigal, de los reyes and gordon not showing good numbers in this poll puts them on a no-chance of winning in this election.

november SWS presidentiables survey: aquino is dominant front runner, villar is a contender while teodoro suffers as candidate of no consequence

this is the 5th nationally conducted presidentiables poll conducted by several research agencies that confirm the following:

• noynoy aquino is the dominant front runner in this election
• villar at 2nd is the only viable contender in this election
• teodoro continue to suffer and is a presidentiable of no consequence in this election
• estrada is a contender but a long shot

this is painful for teodoro as the survey was conducted after the following:

• the ondoy/pepeng floods when teodoro was in the headlines doing his job as NDCC chair
• the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party proclaimed teodoro as its standard bearer 
• teodoro has already aired his “Galing At Talino” tv ads

the above says teodoro by the time of the survey was already known to the voters. getting a low 3% says the people were consciously not selecting teodoro in this survey. it also meant his performance as NDCC chair during the ondoy/pepeng floods meant it was unremarkable. the ondoy/pepeng floods would have been THE event where teodoro could have won over the voters with his performance as the government’s point person in disasters. this very low rating seem to say he was not seen by the people as making a difference during that time.

from a marketing standpoint, it may also indicate that teodoro’s ad campaign is not working or has no impact on his candidacy. the “Galing At Talino” ad was a first for teodoro as a candidate and it positioned him directly opposite noynoy aquino. the low ratings in this survey may indicate his ads are ineffective.

A special national survey sponsored by Puerto Princesa City Mayor Edward Hagedorn was conducted by SWS on November 4-8, 2009.

Pulse Asia October 2009 Presidentiable survey – noynoy aquino is dominant front runner

we have been waiting for this survey as we wanted to confirm the results of the september 2009 SWS presidentiable survey. in that survey, noynoy aquino gained a phenomenal 60%. 

(read here: september 2009 SWS presidentiable poll :noynoy aquino’s spectacular rise to front runner is magical)

in this pulse asia survey, aquino is the dominant front runner with 44% followed by manny villar who is a far second with 19% which is less than one half of aquino’s rating. aquino dominates not only the national tally but also across all geographies and across all socio-eco classes.

we can conclude that aquino’s performance in the SWS poll was not a fluke given the same results in this pulse asia  poll across all presidentiables. 

the rankings of the other presidentiables are essentially the same to that of the SWS survey with villar at 2nd, followed by escudero at 3rd and estrada at 4th.

gilbert teodoro, the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD admin/ruling party standard bearer consistently got low ratings here staying at  the bottom with only 2%. the other major presidntiables suffered in rating with de castro getting the largest deterioration at -12%.  

this survey confirms that noynoy aquino is not only the front runner in this election but the dominant presidentiable. aquino is the presidentiable to beat in this election. while we are still a few months from the actual election and things can still change, the kind of lead that aquino has will be very hard for the other presidentiables to pull down.

 

september 2009 SWS presidentiable poll :noynoy aquino’s spectacular rise to front runner is magical

we have said before that this september survey is a most important survey for all the presidentiables for the front runners, the new comers and the laggards.

noynoy aquino

• noynoy aquino getting a whopping 60% in the survey can only be described as spectacular. while we said in our previous post that it would be good for aquino to get a double digit rating, even if it is a low double digit. aquino getting a very high 60% double digit is just spectacular.
• aquino’s 60% rating is the highest that any presidentiable ever got since september 2007.
• there is further significance in that high 60% rating - it  is a hugely dominant rating given the high  number of declared/almost declared presidentiables at 13 and the survey format of any name can be mentioned. with so many presidentiables and the open ended question, a fragmented distribution is expected as it has been before aquino was included in the survey. for one candidate to amass such a high double digit rating is a clear sign of aquino’s popularity.

 manny villar

• villar is showing impressive strength – he is the only major presidentiable whose rating increased to 37% from 33%  upon the onslaught of aquino’s front runner rating. that means villar continued to gain strength,
• his performance in this survey makes him the only other viable candidate to beat aquino.

 

 gilbert teodoro

• teodoro gained significantly to 4% from 0.8% but this is expected given that he was acclaimed standard bearer on september 16 which got teodoro optimum media exposure.
• it is however a very disappointing rating as it is a low single digit rating. we said in a previous post he needed to get a high single digit (7-9%) to show some semblance of being a contender in this election.
• being part of the ruling/admin party, we expected more from teodoro.

 

eddie villanueva & nicanor perlas

• we think villanueva and perlas need to re-asses their candidacy. in fact we think both should withdraw their candidacy, it is hopeless for both of them.
• perlas did not get any rating while villanueva improved to just 1%.
• we are saying they should withdraw their candidacy because they continue to get extremely low, hopeless ratings inspite of the efforts they exerted during that period.
• we suggest perlas and villanueva should seek senatorial seats instead.

 

what is next?

•  all the presidentiables should re-assess their campaign strategies and plans. they need to contend with the new from runner, noynoy aquino.
• this is a honeymoon period for aquino. his ratings will weaken  through the weeks as people get to know him better and his competitors dial up their own activities. the challenge for aquino is for him to sustain a gradual drop and avoid  significant drops.
• villar’s campaign plans and activities are doing very well. he should continue with it but he needs to fill in the gaps.

 

 

this is our post in this blog last october 3:

october 2009 SWS and Pulse Asia presidentiables poll is a most crucial one so far

sws and pulse asia must be ready to go on fieldwork for their last quarter 2009 presidentiables poll survey. they will probably do the fieldwork end of next week or the week after. they have to wait for things to settle down first on the ondoy storm. people are too preoccupied and very much distracted by ondoy that i doubt they will get any meaningful results for the survey.

it is a most crucial presidentiables poll in the 2010 presidential election.

• very major developments have occured among the presidentiables – mar roxas withdrew, noynoy aquino announced he is a presidentiable and gilbert teodoro was declared ruling/admin party standard bearer. ed panlilio and jejomar binay withdrew while bayani fernando was dumped by his party.
• we can expect major changes in ratings if not rankings.
• there will be a lot to interpret with the upcoming results just on those developments.
• the addition of ondoy will also add significantly to it. we can expect that the people’s ondoy experience or what others have witnessed happening to others will affect preferences.
• this quarter’s poll results will be particularly important to aquino, teodoro and villar.
• aquino based on the luzon sws poll jumped to close to the heavens with a 50% rating. the 4qtr poll will need to confirm his strong standing. he does not need to top the polls but doing a double digit rating even on the low double digit will be excellent news for aquino.
• teodoro is at the bottom of the heap of poll garbage. he has a measly 0.2%. he needs to show he can be a factor in the election with at least a high single digit rating. just hitting a low single digit will confirm what most everybody seem to say about him – he is a non-factor in the next election.
• what can be going for teodoro is that because of ondoy and being the chair of the NDCC, he has been getting a significant amount of press. is that good or bad? will that help his rating and ranking in the next poll?
• this will be important for villar as this will show a true test of villar’s leadership in the polls. he is the front runner and we will know if he still deserves that title given the above developments.
• the poll will also be crucial to the laggards. the poll results will tell them if they need to re-assess their candidacy. the time to drop out of the race is in december at the latest.

october 2009 SWS and Pulse Asia presidentiables poll is a most crucial one so far

read latest SWS Presidentiable poll post here, click  :  september 2009 SWS presidentiable poll :noynoy aquino’s spectacular rise to front runner is magical

———

sws and pulse asia must be ready to go on fieldwork for their last quarter 2009 presidentiables poll survey. they will probably do the fieldwork end of next week or the week after. they have to wait for things to settle down first on the ondoy storm. people are too preoccupied and very much distracted by ondoy that i doubt they will get any meaningful results for the survey.

it is a most crucial presidentiables poll in the 2010 presidential election.

• very major developments have occured among the presidentiables – mar roxas withdrew, noynoy aquino announced he is a presidentiable and gilbert teodoro was declared ruling/admin party standard bearer. ed panlilio and jejomar binay withdrew while bayani fernando was dumped by his party.
• we can expect major changes in ratings if not rankings.
• there will be a lot to interpret with the upcoming results just on those developments.
• the addition of ondoy will also add significantly to it. we can expect that the people’s ondoy experience or what others have witnessed happening to others will affect preferences.
• this quarter’s poll results will be particularly important to aquino, teodoro and villar.
• aquino based on the luzon sws poll jumped to close to the heavens with a 50% rating. the 4qtr poll will need to confirm his strong standing. he does not need to top the polls but doing a double digit rating even on the low double digit will be excellent news for aquino.
• teodoro is at the bottom of the heap of poll garbage. he has a measly 0.2%. he needs to show he can be a factor in the election with at least a high single digit rating. just hitting a low single digit will confirm what most everybody seem to say about him – he is a non-factor in the next election.
• what can be going for teodoro is that because of ondoy and being the chair of the NDCC, he has been getting a significant amount of press. is that good or bad? will that help his rating and ranking in the next poll?
• this will be important for villar as this will show a true test of villar’s leadership in the polls. he is the front runner and we will know if he still deserves that title given the above developments.
• the poll will also be crucial to the laggards. the poll results will tell them if they need to re-assess their candidacy. the time to drop out of the race is in december at the latest.

polls are the words of the people. to some the words may be harsh but to a few they will be kind. it is crunch time for all the presidentiables.

erap estrada tops June 2009 SWS presidentiables survey

this is next at 2010 Presidentiables.

In a nationwide survey that Social Weather Stations (SWS) conducted in June, Estrada got 21 percent, followed by Sen. Manuel Villar, who received 19 percent.

The survey covered 1,500 respondents and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, according to a report Wednesday of The Daily Tribune on the survey results.

Estrada and Villar are in a statistical tie because of the margin of error.

Within striking distance is Sen. Francisco “Chiz” Escudero, who received 18 percent.

Vice President Noli de Castro, the erstwhile leading presidential hopeful in past surveys, slipped to No. 4, getting 15 percent.

Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II was fifth, with 9 percent, and Sen. Loren Legarda sixth, with 7 percent.

SWS asked each respondent to name just one person as his or her presidential choice, according to The Tribune.

Estrada has been threatening to run if the opposition fails to field a common candidate in the May 2010 elections.

“What can I do if the opposition cannot unite behind a common candidate?” he said.

He said he would announce his decision whether he would run for president in mid-September or late next month.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090813-220044/Erap-tops-survey-ex-Kampi-chair-backs-Chiz

roxas and escudero surge in SWS feb 2009 presidentiables survey, but roxas should not celebrate too much

the story in this latest survey is not who is on top of the survey but who among the non-leaders surged up.  it is intentional that we use the word “surge” – escudero moved up one slot in rank and is now 4th with a +4 pts to 23% now. 

roxas who used to be 7th in ranking jumped to 5th place when he took a 5 pt surge to now 15%. that is an impressive increase.

it is not unusual for the leaders in this poll to stay where they are – de castro, villar and legarda are the top three. movements at that level are not expected until a few months or weeks near election time.

while there is some reason for roxas to celebrate, he needs to not over-do it. there are some concerns on his performance. we will be issuing a memo to roxas on the next post here in 2010 presidentiables.  

source: http://www.sws.org.ph/