SWS Survey Results : Mga Tunay Na Pilipinong Bayani (True Filipino Heros)
SWS survey detail
8 April 2011
First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey:
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino
are top three most identified Filipino heroes
Social Weather Stations
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino are the top three most mentioned persons considered to be genuine Filipino heroes, according to the First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey, conducted from March 4-7, 2011.
The survey question was, “Sino-sino po ang mga taong kinikilala ninyong tunay na bayaning Pilipino? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang limang tao.” ["Who are the persons whom you consider a genuine Filipino hero? You can name at up to five persons."]
To that, 75% named Jose Rizal, 34% named Andres Bonifacio, and 20% named Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. [Table 1].
They were followed by Cory Aquino (14%), Apolinario Mabini (14%), Emilio Aguinaldo (11%), Ferdinand Marcos (5.1%), Ramon Magsaysay (4.3%), Manuel L. Quezon (3.8%), and Lapu-Lapu (3.7%).
SWS poll (march 2011) – aquino satisfaction rating suffers a significant drop, the good news and the bad news
a 13 point drop in the satisfaction rating of president aquino is statistically significant. on it’s value it can be a cause of concern for aquino. malacanang or aquino’s handlers are saying it is a concern. as a knee jerk reaction to the 13 point drop, feeling concerned is understandable but they need to look at the number within the framework of other factors and data that is available to them.
first of all, a drop in satisfaction ratings is expected. no president, even aquino can sustain a high rating through the lofe of the presidency. aquino started at a net satisfaction of +60, then moved up to +64. because it moved up to +64, the most recent +51 took a much larger drop of -13 points. if this was pegged at +60, the +51 would have been just a -9 pts drop only.
previous presidents’ satisfaction ratings also showed drops at different periods of their presidency. that just goes to show it is expected that it is impossible to expect that people will perpetually be happy with the president. the beginning of the term of the president always starts on a high note. the people just elected the president, there will be a halo effect on the satisfaction rating of any president during months after the election. it is called the honeymoon period. after the honeymoon, people see the real president with the halo effect from the recently concluded election campaign.
looking at the satisfaction ratings of past presidents, aquino’s most recent rating of +51 and his highest of +64 may be the lowest compared to the highest ratings of past presidents aquino (+69), ramos (+69) and estrada (+67), these ratings are much higher than the highest rating than what arroyo ever got (+30). in fact arroyo’s satisfaction rating record is the worst among all the presidents with arroyo getting minus satisfaction ratings for 25 out of 43 ratings. arroyo’s best rating is at +30 . aquino’s latest rating of +51 is a much more impressive than arroyo’s best.
what that means is that aquino’s presidency so far is serving the people much better than his predecessor, arroyo.
Ratings drop for Aquino
PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s performance has fallen and controversies such as his purchase of a luxury car apparently have not helped, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.
poverty is an endemic problem in the country and one that many previous administrations tried to fix but failed. that apparently includes the current aquino administration.
the aquino admin likes to say they are pro-poor and are dead serious in alleviating poverty. this survey results tell us the aquino admin better get their programs in place and running and hopefully effective.
but that will be asking too much. unfortunately the next quarterly survey of SWS on hunger will probably be even worst than this for the following reasons:
- toll fees are on the rise
- public transport fares (bus, jeepney, train, taxi) on the rise
- NFA rice has been increased
- bread prices on the rise
- gas prices are rising (always)
- power costs increasing
- jobs still hard to find
- US$ depreciating - remittances will get hit
the above will surely boost inflation and with not enough new jobs around, incomes will continue to be scarce and hunger will rise even more.
Hunger again rising
Yearend SWS survey estimates 3.4M families affected
HUNGER HAS GONE UP among Filipino families after declining for most of last year even as the number of households that consider themselves mahirap or poor basically stayed the same, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.
A Nov. 27-30 SWS poll, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, had 18.1% of the respondents — or an estimated 3.4 million families — claiming to have gone hungry in the last three months because they lacked anything to eat.
This was up from the 2010 low of 15.9% (3.0 million families) recorded last September and — given the 21.2% in March and 21.1% in June — was slightly below the 19.1% average for the year.
It was also four points over the 12-year average of 13.7%, the SWS noted, but still far from the record high of 24% hit in December 2009. The record low is 7.4%, hit in March 2004.
Some 9.2 million families or 49% of the respondents, meanwhile, considered themselves poor, barely changed from September’s 48%. Over a third — 36% or an estimated 6.7 million households — considered themselves food-poor, down from 38% previously.
Government officials blamed higher food prices in the last quarter of 2010 and noted the need to deliver on promises to reduce poverty.
The rise in overall hunger, the SWS said, was due to a two-point increase in moderate hunger — experiencing it “only once” or “a few times” in the last three months — to 15% or an estimated 2.8 million families. Those not stating their frequency of hunger are included in this category.
Severe hunger — experiencing it “often” or “always” — remained at 3.1% or 588,000 families.
Overall hunger rose in all areas except in the Visayas where it stayed at 15.3%. It increased by nearly four points in the Balance of Luzon to 18.3%, almost two points in Mindanao to 18% and a point in Metro Manila to 21.7%.
Moderate hunger was up in all geographical areas: to 16% from 13.3% in Mindanao, 14.7% from 12.3% in the Balance of Luzon, to 17.7% from 15.7% in Metro Manila and to 12.7% from 11.7% in the Visayas.
Severe hunger rose by over a point to 3.7% in the rest of Luzon but fell by an identical amount in Mindanao (2.0%) and the Visayas (2.7%). It fell by nearly a point in Metro Manila to 4.0%.
read in full here: http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=24243
please note latest on this one — COMELEC’s precinct finder is down, overwhlemed by hits. they have given hotline numbers to call.
Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec. The hotlines are
try this out, confirm if you are a registered voter and find your precinct number, click here: http://www.comelec.gov.ph/precinctfinder/precinctfinder.aspx
dramatic losses in internals for top 3 presidentiables but aquino leads, erap 2nd, villar drops to 3rd – May 2010 SWS-Business World presidentiables survey
the sws-business world may 2-3 poll shows some interesting developments in the internal scores with major changes in them although the over-all outcome did not show any changes.
noynoy aquino continue to be the front runner but has gained significantly from previous to now 42% from 38%, a 4% point gain. the survey has a 2.2% margin of error.
erap estrada also gained significantly from previous to now 20% from 17% and overtakes manny villar who suffered a major drop to now 19% from the previous 26%. the significant drop for villar and significant gain for erap has put them now on a statistical tie. although the momentum is on the side of estrada.
it appears to us villar has not found the correct formula to arrest his declining numbers. we have said previously in this blog that villar’s drop has been caused by the unresolved C-5 corruption scandal, concretized by the Villarroyo name and villar’s move from the side of good to evil in his parties efforts at black propaganda most of which backfired and hurt his campaign instead.
the over-all ratings and rankings have not changed from previous. however, it is noteworthy that aquino’s lead over estrada is dramatic, a +22% lead, more than double than what estrada has. aquino has 42% versus estrada’s 20%.
the internals of their scores are quite interesting to look at.
aquino’s NCR ratings grew significantly to 43% from 35% while his socio-eco class rating among the ABC dropped to 44% from 53%. we find that a very unusual movement as most of the ABC class are located in NCR. these ratings seem to be contradicting each other. we wonder if there is a tabulation error in this report.
estrada’s mindanao rating has gone up dramatically to 30% from 22%. this is probably driven mostly by estrada’s mindanao-specific tv ad that he has been airing in the past weeks. estrada may have found a very strategic move in this election. he is the only presidentiable who ran mindanao-specific tv ads.
another notable movement in estrada’s internal scores is his ABC rating which is now 14% from the previous 6%, more than doubling from previous. we wonder if this is related to the question we have posted on the ABC tallies in aquino’s scores.
villar’s significant drop in over-all rating to 19% from 26% may have been brought about by dramatic deterioration of his ratings in the NCR, from 18% to 10%, a cut of more than half; balance luzon from 25% to 20%, a quarter drop and mindanao , another drop by more than half from 31% to 15%. we think these are very alarming deterioration of villar’s ratings.
significant drops in villar’s ratings occurred across all socio-eco classes, -9% pts in ABC, -7% in D and -10% in E. across the board drops in geography and socio-classes is showing villar supporters are showing fluid movements confirming what we said previously that villar’s supporters are most vulnerable to poaching by other presidentiables.
these movements should tell the presidentiable campaigns to look into geographic and demographics segmentation to improve their over-all ratings. unfortunately, because it is just a few days before election, there is not much they can do to recover or push their ratings in the direction they want it to be.
Aquino pads poll lead
Gap now 22 points; Estrada overtakes Villar
WITH THE MAY 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.
The May 2-3 poll, conducted roughly a week before Filipinos troop to the precincts, gave Mr. Aquino the support of 42%, up four points and ahead of former President Joseph “Erap” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masa who was now in second place with three-point gain to 20%.
Erstwhile second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) was a point behind at 19%, a result within the survey’s error margin of 2.2%. His support was down seven points from the prior BW-SWS poll of April 16-19.
The gap between the top two was 22 points, wider than the 12 Mr. Aquino enjoyed over Mr. Villar in the last survey.
~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~
May 2010 SWS-BusinessWorld Presidentiables Poll – no change among laggards; teodoro doubles Class E rating
the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change. their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.
the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.
Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.
Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)
Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.
As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.
(The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)
The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.
They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)
we thought it was an interesting idea that the gordon-fernando presidential team called themselves “the transformers” at the start of the campaign. it was a name that many, specially the young know about coming behind the just released hollywood sequel hit movie with the same name.
gordon, together with his running mate fernando kept talking about the idea of the pair of them being transformational candidates and a pair that was blessed with action and political will.
or so we thought that was what they meant.
with recent developments and actions of gordon, we now think it is very possible gordon was not just referring to the hollywood movie animation characters, it’s very possible he was referring to himself as coming from outer space, just like the transformers.
gordon seems to live in in his own world, created exclusively by him, populated exclusively by him.
he has taken the path of don quixote, going against the windmills of media, front runner villar, survey firms and tv stations.
we are in search of answer on why gordon seem to be on a perpetual loop of spending time and energy on such small minded issues when the biggest issue facing his political career is still before him, right in his eyes – he is losing the presidential election.
gordon, to our huge disappointment, is getting no more than 2% in the polls and it’s just a few weeks to go until election time. we are disappointed as we like godron very much. we thought he has the guts and the energy to the right things for the country. we were also expecting his ratings will surge to a good double digit number, pulling away from teodoro who is in fourth and becoming the dark horse in this election, his poll ratings simply puts him in the dark, winning over the likes of villanueva, madrigal, perlas and de los reyes.
we even scaled back that expectation. from being a dark horse to win the election, we said he will at the end get more votes than teodoro. but even that hugely scaled down expectation will not happen on earth. we don’t know if outer space holds elections, so we can’t comment on it.
where is richard gordon? we don’t know either. he seems to be out there somewhere creating, actually forcing upon us issues that are non-issues but forcing us and the media to make them issues.
he may have a point on ad spending, suing SWS and Pulse Asia and charging villar offered him a bribe to withdraw from the campaign even though it did not make sense that villar will make an offer to him when his ratings are way down, but do these things matter to others, like the voters?
rather than waste his time and brain cells on these small mind issues, he should instead spend them on issues that will get him elected or even on the not so small matter of getting funds for his campaign, something he obviously do not have a lot of.
we think he has been doing these earth outwardly things to get media attention. he probably figures the way to get out of 2% in the polls is to get media exposure. he knows media exposure is his problem. so he drums up this tiny issues to get media to interview him.
it’s a fine objective but he has forgotten to look at what he is being transformed into by his action. these are issues with no legs. these will get him one day, two days at the most in media coverage. more importantly, he will be building a brand image, but it will be one that is not suitable for a president. bottom line – it will not get him elected. it will be sending the wrong message, not like saying “ET, phone home.”
what he is doing is reminding people he is a marginalized candidate out there in space desperately trying to crash unto earth’s atmosphere and hopefully landing in the philippine’s presidential election.
our favorite of gordon is this abs-cbn tv partol world video where the topic gordon wanted to whine about was poor or lack of media coverage of hiss events. he was at one of the domestic airports to go to a public meeting and there was only one media person covering the event. they stopped walking for awhile and the lady reporter started to interview him.
gordon launched on the topic of lack of media support for candidates like him but at the middle of his statement, the public address system at the airport gave out a series of announcements that was loud that it muffled gordon and he could barely be heard. gordon was visibly distracted by it. he rolls his eyes, shakes his head and CURSES the PA system announcement right in front of the tv camera.
tv patrol world included it in their report but placed the beeping sound when he cursed.
true enough, gordon is a transformer, one from being human to one from outer space. it’s nice to have your own world, but that will not get him elected president on earth, at the philippines. “gordon, phone home?”