SWS Survey Results : Mga Tunay Na Pilipinong Bayani (True Filipino Heros)
1 jose rizal
2 andres bonifacio
3 ninoy aquino
4 cory aquino
5 apolinario mabini
6 emilio aguinaldo
7 ferdinand aquino
8 ramon magsaysay
9 manuel quezon
10 lapu lapu
SWS survey
SWS survey detail
8 April 2011
First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey:
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino
are top three most identified Filipino heroes
Social Weather Stations
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino are the top three most mentioned persons considered to be genuine Filipino heroes, according to the First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey, conducted from March 4-7, 2011.
The survey question was, “Sino-sino po ang mga taong kinikilala ninyong tunay na bayaning Pilipino? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang limang tao.” ["Who are the persons whom you consider a genuine Filipino hero? You can name at up to five persons."]
To that, 75% named Jose Rizal, 34% named Andres Bonifacio, and 20% named Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. [Table 1].
They were followed by Cory Aquino (14%), Apolinario Mabini (14%), Emilio Aguinaldo (11%), Ferdinand Marcos (5.1%), Ramon Magsaysay (4.3%), Manuel L. Quezon (3.8%), and Lapu-Lapu (3.7%).
a 13 point drop in the satisfaction rating of president aquino is statistically significant. on it’s value it can be a cause of concern for aquino. malacanang or aquino’s handlers are saying it is a concern. as a knee jerk reaction to the 13 point drop, feeling concerned is understandable but they need to look at the number within the framework of other factors and data that is available to them.
first of all, a drop in satisfaction ratings is expected. no president, even aquino can sustain a high rating through the lofe of the presidency. aquino started at a net satisfaction of +60, then moved up to +64. because it moved up to +64, the most recent +51 took a much larger drop of -13 points. if this was pegged at +60, the +51 would have been just a -9 pts drop only.
previous presidents’ satisfaction ratings also showed drops at different periods of their presidency. that just goes to show it is expected that it is impossible to expect that people will perpetually be happy with the president. the beginning of the term of the president always starts on a high note. the people just elected the president, there will be a halo effect on the satisfaction rating of any president during months after the election. it is called the honeymoon period. after the honeymoon, people see the real president with the halo effect from the recently concluded election campaign.
looking at the satisfaction ratings of past presidents, aquino’s most recent rating of +51 and his highest of +64 may be the lowest compared to the highest ratings of past presidents aquino (+69), ramos (+69) and estrada (+67), these ratings are much higher than the highest rating than what arroyo ever got (+30). in fact arroyo’s satisfaction rating record is the worst among all the presidents with arroyo getting minus satisfaction ratings for 25 out of 43 ratings. arroyo’s best rating is at +30 . aquino’s latest rating of +51 is a much more impressive than arroyo’s best.
what that means is that aquino’s presidency so far is serving the people much better than his predecessor, arroyo.
Ratings drop for Aquino
PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s performance has fallen and controversies such as his purchase of a luxury car apparently have not helped, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.
Most Filipinos still approve of Mr. Aquino but his latest net satisfaction rating is down 13 points to +51 (69% satisfied minus the 18% dissatisfied) from November’s +64 (74% satisfied, 10% dissatisfied), results of a March 4-7 poll made exclusive toBusinessWorld showed.
Interviewed on the issue of the president’s purchase of a Porsche late last year, nearly half or 48% said it was not a good example for the chief executive of a country like the Philippines, notwithstanding details such as the car was not brand new and that Mr. Aquino had used his own money.
A political analyst warned that results pointed to “uneasiness,” while Malacañang said a dip in Mr. Aquino’s numbers had been expected following his overwhelming election win last year.
Scores in all areas but one, socioeconomic classes and gender were down from November last year. In Luzon, urban areas, among the ABC class and among males, Mr. Aquino particularly saw his net ratings dip into “good” territory from “very good.”
poverty is an endemic problem in the country and one that many previous administrations tried to fix but failed. that apparently includes the current aquino administration.
the aquino admin likes to say they are pro-poor and are dead serious in alleviating poverty. this survey results tell us the aquino admin better get their programs in place and running and hopefully effective.
but that will be asking too much. unfortunately the next quarterly survey of SWS on hunger will probably be even worst than this for the following reasons:
toll fees are on the rise
public transport fares (bus, jeepney, train, taxi) on the rise
NFA rice has been increased
bread prices on the rise
gas prices are rising (always)
power costs increasing
jobs still hard to find
US$ depreciating - remittances will get hit
the above will surely boost inflation and with not enough new jobs around, incomes will continue to be scarce and hunger will rise even more.
HUNGER HAS GONE UP among Filipino families after declining for most of last year even as the number of households that consider themselves mahirap or poor basically stayed the same, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.
A Nov. 27-30 SWS poll, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, had 18.1% of the respondents — or an estimated 3.4 million families — claiming to have gone hungry in the last three months because they lacked anything to eat.
This was up from the 2010 low of 15.9% (3.0 million families) recorded last September and — given the 21.2% in March and 21.1% in June — was slightly below the 19.1% average for the year.
It was also four points over the 12-year average of 13.7%, the SWS noted, but still far from the record high of 24% hit in December 2009. The record low is 7.4%, hit in March 2004.
Some 9.2 million families or 49% of the respondents, meanwhile, considered themselves poor, barely changed from September’s 48%. Over a third — 36% or an estimated 6.7 million households — considered themselves food-poor, down from 38% previously.
Government officials blamed higher food prices in the last quarter of 2010 and noted the need to deliver on promises to reduce poverty.
The rise in overall hunger, the SWS said, was due to a two-point increase in moderate hunger — experiencing it “only once” or “a few times” in the last three months — to 15% or an estimated 2.8 million families. Those not stating their frequency of hunger are included in this category.
Severe hunger — experiencing it “often” or “always” — remained at 3.1% or 588,000 families.
Overall hunger rose in all areas except in the Visayas where it stayed at 15.3%. It increased by nearly four points in the Balance of Luzon to 18.3%, almost two points in Mindanao to 18% and a point in Metro Manila to 21.7%.
Moderate hunger was up in all geographical areas: to 16% from 13.3% in Mindanao, 14.7% from 12.3% in the Balance of Luzon, to 17.7% from 15.7% in Metro Manila and to 12.7% from 11.7% in the Visayas.
Severe hunger rose by over a point to 3.7% in the rest of Luzon but fell by an identical amount in Mindanao (2.0%) and the Visayas (2.7%). It fell by nearly a point in Metro Manila to 4.0%.
the sws-business world may 2-3 poll shows some interesting developments in the internal scores with major changes in them although the over-all outcome did not show any changes.
noynoy aquino continue to be the front runner but has gained significantly from previous to now 42% from 38%, a 4% point gain. the survey has a 2.2% margin of error.
erap estrada also gained significantly from previous to now 20% from 17% and overtakes manny villar who suffered a major drop to now 19% from the previous 26%. the significant drop for villar and significant gain for erap has put them now on a statistical tie. although the momentum is on the side of estrada.
it appears to us villar has not found the correct formula to arrest his declining numbers. we have said previously in this blog that villar’s drop has been caused by the unresolved C-5 corruption scandal, concretized by the Villarroyo name and villar’s move from the side of good to evil in his parties efforts at black propaganda most of which backfired and hurt his campaign instead.
the over-all ratings and rankings have not changed from previous. however, it is noteworthy that aquino’s lead over estrada is dramatic, a +22% lead, more than double than what estrada has. aquino has 42% versus estrada’s 20%.
the internals of their scores are quite interesting to look at.
aquino’s NCR ratings grew significantly to 43% from 35% while his socio-eco class rating among the ABC dropped to 44% from 53%. we find that a very unusual movement as most of the ABC class are located in NCR. these ratings seem to be contradicting each other. we wonder if there is a tabulation error in this report.
estrada’s mindanao rating has gone up dramatically to 30% from 22%. this is probably driven mostly by estrada’s mindanao-specific tv ad that he has been airing in the past weeks. estrada may have found a very strategic move in this election. he is the only presidentiable who ran mindanao-specific tv ads.
another notable movement in estrada’s internal scores is his ABC rating which is now 14% from the previous 6%, more than doubling from previous. we wonder if this is related to the question we have posted on the ABC tallies in aquino’s scores.
villar’s significant drop in over-all rating to 19% from 26% may have been brought about by dramatic deterioration of his ratings in the NCR, from 18% to 10%, a cut of more than half; balance luzon from 25% to 20%, a quarter drop and mindanao , another drop by more than half from 31% to 15%. we think these are very alarming deterioration of villar’s ratings.
significant drops in villar’s ratings occurred across all socio-eco classes, -9% pts in ABC, -7% in D and -10% in E. across the board drops in geography and socio-classes is showing villar supporters are showing fluid movements confirming what we said previously that villar’s supporters are most vulnerable to poaching by other presidentiables.
these movements should tell the presidentiable campaigns to look into geographic and demographics segmentation to improve their over-all ratings. unfortunately, because it is just a few days before election, there is not much they can do to recover or push their ratings in the direction they want it to be.
Aquino pads poll lead
Gap now 22 points; Estrada overtakes Villar
WITH THE MAY 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.
The May 2-3 poll, conducted roughly a week before Filipinos troop to the precincts, gave Mr. Aquino the support of 42%, up four points and ahead of former President Joseph “Erap” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masa who was now in second place with three-point gain to 20%.
Erstwhile second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) was a point behind at 19%, a result within the survey’s error margin of 2.2%. His support was down seven points from the prior BW-SWS poll of April 16-19.
The gap between the top two was 22 points, wider than the 12 Mr. Aquino enjoyed over Mr. Villar in the last survey.
the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change. their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.
the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.
Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.
Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)
Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.
As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.
(The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)
The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.
They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)
we thought it was an interesting idea that the gordon-fernando presidential team called themselves “the transformers” at the start of the campaign. it was a name that many, specially the young know about coming behind the just released hollywood sequel hit movie with the same name.
gordon, together with his running mate fernando kept talking about the idea of the pair of them being transformational candidates and a pair that was blessed with action and political will.
or so we thought that was what they meant.
with recent developments and actions of gordon, we now think it is very possible gordon was not just referring to the hollywood movie animation characters, it’s very possible he was referring to himself as coming from outer space, just like the transformers.
gordon seems to live in in his own world, created exclusively by him, populated exclusively by him.
he has taken the path of don quixote, going against the windmills of media, front runner villar, survey firms and tv stations.
we are in search of answer on why gordon seem to be on a perpetual loop of spending time and energy on such small minded issues when the biggest issue facing his political career is still before him, right in his eyes – he is losing the presidential election.
gordon, to our huge disappointment, is getting no more than 2% in the polls and it’s just a few weeks to go until election time. we are disappointed as we like godron very much. we thought he has the guts and the energy to the right things for the country. we were also expecting his ratings will surge to a good double digit number, pulling away from teodoro who is in fourth and becoming the dark horse in this election, his poll ratings simply puts him in the dark, winning over the likes of villanueva, madrigal, perlas and de los reyes.
we even scaled back that expectation. from being a dark horse to win the election, we said he will at the end get more votes than teodoro. but even that hugely scaled down expectation will not happen on earth. we don’t know if outer space holds elections, so we can’t comment on it.
where is richard gordon? we don’t know either. he seems to be out there somewhere creating, actually forcing upon us issues that are non-issues but forcing us and the media to make them issues.
he may have a point on ad spending, suing SWS and Pulse Asia and charging villar offered him a bribe to withdraw from the campaign even though it did not make sense that villar will make an offer to him when his ratings are way down, but do these things matter to others, like the voters?
rather than waste his time and brain cells on these small mind issues, he should instead spend them on issues that will get him elected or even on the not so small matter of getting funds for his campaign, something he obviously do not have a lot of.
we think he has been doing these earth outwardly things to get media attention. he probably figures the way to get out of 2% in the polls is to get media exposure. he knows media exposure is his problem. so he drums up this tiny issues to get media to interview him.
it’s a fine objective but he has forgotten to look at what he is being transformed into by his action. these are issues with no legs. these will get him one day, two days at the most in media coverage. more importantly, he will be building a brand image, but it will be one that is not suitable for a president. bottom line – it will not get him elected. it will be sending the wrong message, not like saying “ET, phone home.”
the transformation of richard gordon
what he is doing is reminding people he is a marginalized candidate out there in space desperately trying to crash unto earth’s atmosphere and hopefully landing in the philippine’s presidential election.
our favorite of gordon is this abs-cbn tv partol world video where the topic gordon wanted to whine about was poor or lack of media coverage of hiss events. he was at one of the domestic airports to go to a public meeting and there was only one media person covering the event. they stopped walking for awhile and the lady reporter started to interview him.
gordon launched on the topic of lack of media support for candidates like him but at the middle of his statement, the public address system at the airport gave out a series of announcements that was loud that it muffled gordon and he could barely be heard. gordon was visibly distracted by it. he rolls his eyes, shakes his head and CURSES the PA system announcement right in front of the tv camera.
tv patrol world included it in their report but placed the beeping sound when he cursed.
true enough, gordon is a transformer, one from being human to one from outer space. it’s nice to have your own world, but that will not get him elected president on earth, at the philippines. “gordon, phone home?”
gloria macapagal arroyo's performance rating reaches a new historic low
dramatic drops across all areas and across all demographics
these are very distressing numbers not only for president arroyo but also for gilbert teodoro, the standard bearer of arroyo’s political party lakas-kampi-cmd.
in the past weeks, the talk of arroyo abandoning teodoro in favor of manny villar or villarroyo is material for headlines and the front pages of newspapers and tv newscasts. the other headline and front page content is the disintegration of lakas-kampi-cmd with key officers abandoning the party, candidates complaining and members moving out of the party to join the NP or the LP.
to fix the first one, arroyo sent out to the press her word ordering her troops, her party mates to support teodoro, not only to vote for him but to campaign for him. this was the first time after a very long time that arroyo ever spoke of teodoro in this manner. arroyo has never come out actually stating her support for teodoro. even during the proclamation of teodoro as the standard bearer of lakas-kampi, arroyo did not raise the hands of teodoro as is the tradition in philippine politics. she did not even give a speech during the event.
that was the last time we saw arroyo and teodoro in the same room. she even resigned as party chair and gave it to teodoro. all these were meant to distance herself from teodoro acting on the realization that arroyo’s endorsement is a kiss of death on teodoro’s chances of winning the election.
for some reason, arroyo and lakas-kampi broke away from that strategy when arroyo gave marching orders for her party mates to campaign for teodoro. that had the effect of reminding people that arroyo supports teodoro in this campaign.
with these performance ratings of arroyo hitting a new historical low, this outing of arroyo in support of teodoro is a very grave and fatal tactical error. teodoro was just whole heatedly endorsed by the most unpopular national leader of the country. her words, because of her unpopularity will not be good for teodoro, it will harm him even more.
teodoro is already being pushed down in the polls because of the association of teodoro with arroyo. arroyo coming out more directly about it id like pouring alcohol over a open wound.
with arroyo as party mate, teodoro does not need opponents in this election. in fact we think had arroyo endorsed or expressed her support for tedoro’s rivals, she would have a better chance of helping teodoro get elected as president in may 2010.
with just a few weeks left in this campaign, manny villar’s rating in the most recent SWS poll should be taken as a huge ref flag being raised on the villar bid for the presidency. this is the first time that we are seeing villar’s rating take a dip. it has been consistently going up over the months.
coming at this late stage is particularly worrying as it leaves very little time for the campaign to first find out what is causing it and equally important to do something about it.
villar has tied aquino as front runner only after many months of campaign activities and millions of advertising peso way ahead of the official start of the election campaign. this front runner status did not come easy for villar. now having such a short time to recover is cause for worry.
we think it is the C-5 controversy that is causing this weakness in villar’s poll rating. it is finally catching up on him. it does not help that aquino, his co-leader started airing tv ads that were single minded on corruption. those ads of aquino created a very clear contrast between the two campaigns.
the road to recovery for villar lie exclusively on this – finding out what is causing the deterioration in the poll ratings. not getting that right will make his efforts worthless. they need to do something very different in the next few weeks left in this campaign. doing more of the same will not help villar, it will even be counter productive.
this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.
aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.
villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past. villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air. villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.
estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.
the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.
presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline. doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return for them.
Aquino opens up lead versus Villar
LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.
Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.
Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.
Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.
Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.
There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).
political polls are always tricky. the nature of political polls is one where change can occur often and rapidly. that comes from the design itself – political polls measures the attitude of the respondents, in this case voters at a given point in time. current events and the latest developments in the country, in the political arena and most specially among the presidentiables themselves influence the attitude of voters. in other words anything and many things can influence the mind of the voter.
that is when you look at one specific poll result. it becomes a slightly different story when you have several of these poll results, the same question being asked across several points in time. from there you can see a trend.
looking at the SWS presidentiable polls across several polls conducted since early december 2009, it clearly shows the steady decline of the poll ratings of noynoy aquino.
while the decline in the first three polls are negligible being within the margin of error or just about there, the last one in end february is a clear red flag as that is statistically a significant drop from the previous.
while that to some degree may not be as worrisome as he continues to enjoy front runner status, the alarm bells come off when we look at the ratings of the other presidentiables, specifically manny villar. there is a clear upward trend on the ratings of villar to the point that villar has statistically tied aquino as front runner.
the other thing to consider is erap estrada. we were expecting estrada’s ratings will eventually drop as the campaign period went on but his actual ratings on a trend is the opposite. it has not gone down but it has basically remained at the same level and the recent data shows a slight increase (though not statistically significant).
within the context of a contest to which this presidential race is, at the minimum it shows a picture of aquino losing ground while his opponents are gaining ground.
this seems to indicate that aquino’s supporters are vulnerable to poaching by the other presidentiables. that generally indicates aquino is not doing enough to protect his franchise.
his main opponents on the other hand, villar and estrada have been doing many more things than they used to before the campaign period. most notably villar has had dramatic changes in his ad campaign with a slew of new executions and changes in strategy, including huge and aggressive public meetings.
even estrada has changed his tv ads. from the nostalgic ads he had before, he is now into more specific messages and positioning plus aggressive public meetings.
we also think aquino will lose this election by default – he has not done enough and he did not do anything at the time he was supposed to. we wonder if it is over confidence. we think it is really more of a strategic blunder.
can aquino recover and change the outcome to a win in this election? yes he can. but he needs to do a lot more than what he has been doing and he needs to get his campaign strategies right. the first one is easy but we think the second one is not. specially for the aquino campaign. we think poor and weak strategic thinking is the aquino campaign’s greatest weakness. unfortunately, we do not think they know that.
we are publishing here an email we received from a reader, carlo arvisu who is a marketing and advertising practitioner.
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election polls is the rage these days – it is the stuff of newspaper headlines and tv newscasts. presidentiables are asked about them and predictably those in the lead are thankful for the results while those at the bottom or not improving are all against it casting doubt on the results by attacking the research agency, those who commissioned the poll and the methodology.
the irony of it all is that most of the major candidates and even the laggards actually subscribe to the election polls we read in the papers. the election polls conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia are syndicated polls. they run this on their own but they make available to the candidates its results on a subscription basis. not only can candidates subscribe to it, anyone else who has the money can subscribe to them.
the rate of subscription vary on the kind of service a presidentiable wants. the rates differ on how the presidentiables want the results presented to them or what results they want to have.
the biggest clients of research agencies are mass consumer marketing companies like uni-lever, jollibee and procter & gamble, although they use other research agencies like TNS and AC Nielsen. SWS and Pulse Asia do these types of research but very seldom, their specialization is polls on political and national issues.
the problem with surveys and research both for mass consumer marketing companies and presidential campaigns is how to answer two questi0ns, the last one being - what do we do, what steps do we take as a reaction to the research results.
research and polls give a snapshot or a profile of the consumer mind and voters mind at a certain point in time. the consumer and voter mind is a living thing, it is dynamic and can change in whatever direction in no time depending on the stimulus or what the voter or consumer experience.
change in the consumer mind may not happen often and not as quickly but change in the voter mind can happen very often and very quickly. current events is the stimulus for this change and current can mean something yesterday, today or in a few hours time.
with readily available , evolving news reported and brought to the consciousness of voters, change in the voter mind can occur in a beat. we not only have tv, radio and print now, there is the internet, the social websites, blogs and even cellphone text. all of the above can influence the voter mind in an instant.
we saw the power of instant communication during EDSA DOS where hundreds of thousands of people exchanged cell phone text to express their disgust on the developments regarding the unopened brown envelope during estrada’s hearings at congress. from disgust, the text content turned into people asking others to converge at EDSA and that led to the eventual ouster of estrada.
having the data gives the political campaign a picture of the current state of mind of the voter. with a picture in front of you, you can now plot your actions to change that picture.
the problem is very few know how to do it properly. that problem is not limited to political campaigns but it is also true to mass consumer marketing companies.
knowing what to do or not knowing what to do is actually the second of two questions. the first question is this – what is the meaning of the poll results? and the twin question which is more important – what are the insights that we can draw from these results?
research and poll agencies will give the subscriber results, basically statements or answers to the questions asked of the respondents with corresponding numbers or ratings. these are in essence the statistically analyzed raw data. the poll and research agency will not give them the meanings and more importantly the insights from the data.
the data will need interpretation and that is supposed to be done by the client. and there lie the other problem. even mass consumer marketing companies are not very good at this, in fact many of these companies do not even have competencies to do this. we do not think political campaigns have these as well.
insights is a very elusive thing for many. in fact the marketing and advertising managers we have encountered do not really know what insights are. many of them think research data and results are already insights. when they are really just raw data that they will need to draw insights from.
the political campaign now has the data from the polls, what will they do with it now? this is next in part 2.
RT @SAI: Apple's Supply Chain Is Struggling To Keep Up With The High Demand For Next Generation MacBooks $AAPL by @sfiegermanhttp://t.c ... ... wawam tweeted 1 hour ago
the best marriage proposal RT Isaac's Live Lip-Dub Proposal bit.ly/MWzfox ... wawam tweeted 1 hour ago
cant get over ironies of chief justice getting impeached; losing the case on bad lawyer decisions; & excuses that r not lawyerly #CJTrial ... wawam tweeted 2 hours ago
interviews of senator judges, corona had a chance before corona testified in court. the 20-3 vote solidified after his testimony. #cjtrial ... wawam tweeted 3 hours ago
on ch 7 of 50ShadesOfGray - finally the start of the part on why it is in the US' best seller's list. ... wawam tweeted 3 hours ago
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arroyo ever spoke of teodoro in this manner. arroyo has never come out actually stating her support for teodoro. even during the proclamation of teodoro as the standard bearer of lakas-kampi, arroyo did not raise the hands of teodoro as is the tradition in philippine politics. she did not even give a speech during the event.
unpopular national leader of the country. her words, because of her unpopularity will not be good for teodoro, it will harm him even more.
staying power, just gaining 1% points.
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