January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%. fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.
December 10, 2009, 7am - bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.
December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of which was yesterday.
Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.
looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.
the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.
that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time. unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.
the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.
we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.
SWS September Vice-Presidential Poll – mar roxas dominates, the aquino-roxas tandem formidable, puts one more nail on teodoro’s candidacy
mar roxas getting a 40% in the 3rd qtr VP poll puts him at a dominant leadership position just like his partner noynoy aquino. this puts their tandem at a very steep leadership position.
it also shows roxas has recovered and rebuilt his image coming from the “putang-ina” incident. what redeemed him was his words and behavior when noynoy spent a few weeks figuring out if he will run for president or not. roxas withdrawing his own bid for the presidency and the way he did it was excellent statesmanship.
this VP results not only puts the aquino-roxas tandem clearly the team to beat, it also puts the ruling/admin party, LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD in a very precarious and difficult position.
gilbert teodoro as of this writing do not yet have a VP choice. when he was chosen as standard bearer by the executive committee in early december, the party also chose ronaldo puno, DILG head as the VP. one day aftet the announcement, party members and officers started to express their apprehension on puno’s selection.
governor vilma santos was floated by members and officers of the party as the better choice over puno. that talk went on for a while until vilma santos herself said she was not interested.
as it was clear that the members and officers of the ruling/admin party were not happy with the choice of puno, puno himself and other officers of the party said the VP choice was not a done deal.
a few more weeks went on and the discontent and doubts persisted. then the SWS presidentiable survey results were released where it showed noynoy aquino got a spectacular 60% and gilbert teodoro got a measly 4%, at the very bottom of the pile.
ondoy and pepeng happened and the government, including the NDCC which teodoro heads were roundly criticized for their slow and inadequate response to the disaster. the NDCC is the government agency assigned to prepare the country and LGUS for disasters. the way the LGUs and national government reacted made it obvious the NDCC, headed by teodoro failed in its mandate.
that must have spooked the ruling/admin party even more. louder talks and speculation surpfaced on the panic that the ruling/admin party was into in finding a suitable VP partner for teodoro. not onnly are they supposed to find a VP for teodoro, they are supposed to find a very strong one who can help teodoro prop up his sagging fortunes.
talks on partnering with santos resurfaced and added to that loren legarda. just a few days ago, legarda has turned down teodoro. that leaves teodoro and his political party with santos who doe not want it and no one else to turn to.
the dominance of roxas in this survey adds to the weakness of the ruling/admin party’s ticket for 2010.
The Third Quarter of 2009 Social Weather Survey was conducted from September 18-21, 2009 using face-to-face interviews of 1,800 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila and Mindanao, and 600 each in Balance of Luzon and the Visayas (sampling error margins of ±2.3% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila and Mindanao, and ±4% for Balance Luzon and the Visayas).
The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2009 to obtain the national estimates.