May 2009 SWS Presidentiables Survey: dramatic changes, high undecided puts manny villar on top

this is SWS’ presidentiables survey conducted april 16 to may 6, 2009 asking the question “who is the best leader to succeed president macapagal arroyo in 2010.

we have been seeing  this presidentiable survey and since then have found the question being asked in the survey somewhat interesting. the question is not a straight out question on who the respondents think is the best presidentiable, it adds a second dimension of anchoring it on gloria macapagal arroyo. respondents will need to first think of arroyo before they choose the presidentiable they prefer.

what the respondents is answering is not on their preference among the presidentiables but who they think is best to replace arroyo. they will need to define in their minds who arroyo is first, then choose the presidentiable.

it is in some sense a loaded question. more importantly, it does not at all reflect the situation that respondents will get into in may 2010 when they elect a president. by may 2010 when they vote, arroyo will not be a factor at all which then in many ways weakens the results of this survey.

highlights of the results:

• villar is on top at 29%, a slight increase from previous survey
• a significant drop for de castro to 21% from 27% that pushed him to 2nd from 1st from previous survey period
•  roxas gains slightly and is now 3rd at 18%
• a dramatic drop for legarda, to 14% from 25%. also a dramatic drop in ranking from 2nd to now 5th
• a dramatic drop for escudero now 15% from 23% but retains his 4th ranking
• a dramatic rise in “i don’t know” or the undecided

the most significant development in this survey lie in two things: the dramatic declines in ratings among a few presidentiables and a dramatic rise in the undecided.

we need to cross tabulate and we do not have the data but what the results seem to say is that the dramatic rise in the undecided caused the dramatic decreases in ratings of some of the presidentiables. that seems to say many of the previous supporters of presidentiables escudero and legarda and to some degree de castro did not shift their support to other candidates but simply decided not to decide.

 next on 2010 presidentiables – based on these results what can the candidates do?