Home > presidentiables, surveys & polls > escudero at risk; de castro poised to dominate; roxas got it wrong – May 2009 Pulse Asia Presidentiables Survey

escudero at risk; de castro poised to dominate; roxas got it wrong – May 2009 Pulse Asia Presidentiables Survey

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we did not expect that PDI will have the results of the latest pulse asia presidentiables survey as headline on their front page.

there is a 5 way statistical tie, the results are no biggie.  the election is months away, too early to call. this kind of news  is front page material but we did not think it is headline material.

we looked at the specifics of the data and these are our conclusions:

  • escudero’s top 5 position is at risk. escudero did well in being among the top 5. he is one of the youngest among the presidentiables and all he has been doing is well, being himself – sure he delivers everything he says in near poetic pilipino in a monotone voice matched with a perpetual poker face, but i guess people are able to go beyond that and appreciate the points he makes. looking at the specifics as to where escudero got his national top 5 ranking – it comes from being dominant versus all others in the NCR and the ABC socio-eco. a significant part of the philippine electorate is among the DE socio-ecoclass and outside NCR. being strongest among others in both says his strong showing comes from the rich as most of the rich are from the NCR. the rich are vastly outnumbered by the poor. unless escudero makes efforts to appeal to the poor, his position may eventually fall.
  • de castro’s position puts him on a springboard for  dominance. de castro’s showing is strong if not leading across all areas and across all socio-eco class. that means de castro’s appeal and strength is across the board. his position in all of them are either top or a strong second. he is dominant in the E socio-eco class. having an across the board appeals means he is poised to build core supporters across all groups of voters. he is the superstar in this survey.
  • roxas explained the jump in his rating due to his “pro-poor programs”, this does not seem to be true, he may have got it wrong.the senator obviously knows the poor will be critical in this campaign, thus he put in that spin to explain his gain in the survey. looking at the specifics of the survey does not support roxas’ claim – roxas got the lowest ratings among the D and E socio-eco classes. if it was his pro-poor programs that got his ratings higher, this should have shown among the poor. (read PDI article here: http://bit.ly/xVHYR)

surveys can give a lot of good insights. interpreted properly, any of the presidentiables can sharpen and reshape their plans to build on their strengths or correct weaknesses.

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