Noynoy Aquino makes his first major tactical blunder

September 16, 2009 Leave a comment Go to comments

we think making a big deal of the most recent SWS presidentiables poll conducted in Luzon (sponsored by former senator osmena) is a major tactical blunder on the part of noynoy aquino. the smart thing to do would have been to be humble and aggressively downplay it.

going in we have problems with that survey. we think it’s garbage data. (click here to read about the Luzon Osmena-sponsored SWS Luzon survey:  http://wp.me/pnw03-FV)

over and above the question on the design and therefore the value of that survey, the tactical blunder will be made obvious on what comes next.

SWS and Pulse Asia conducts on a regular basis their own and separate presidentiables survey. they have been doing these polls for a long time already. we think results from these surveys are very reliable.

the major tactical blunder is that with noynoy making a big deal of the very high results (rating of 50%) within the  limited Luzon survey (sponsored by former senator osmena), he has  set himself  up for failure when the regular quarterly presidential polls conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia are conducted and released.

we do not think noynoy will get the same 50% rating in these polls. it will be a miracle if he does, or even come close to it. we think noynoy might get a 2 digit rating but we do not think it will be more than 13%.

in the last Pulse Asia poll conducted in August,  (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-B4) there were 5 presidentiables  who got double digit ratings – villar(25%), estrada (19%), de castro (12%), escudero  and roxas (11%) in that order.

the ratings are flatter for the simple reason that the presidentiable choices are too many. we do not think noynoy will be able to even match villar’s 25%. roxas who was fifth and got a double digit rating who has now withdrawn his candidacy will still get preferences. it will not be as high as 11% but it will not be zero. it is also improbable that those who voted for roxas will automatically vote for aquino.

for noynoy to get a 50% rating or even a 25% rating, he will need to get a huge number, in fact massive number of switchers from these presidentiables which  is just impossible at this point in time. massive shifts only occur if a major almost cataclysmic change occur among the presidentiables. announcing you are a presidentiable is not cataclysmic in magnitude.

aside from the mind dynamics of  choices that voters go through, the survey design of the Luzon Osmena-sponsored Survey is very different from that of the regular quarterly surveys that Pulse Asia and SWS conducts. in fact i have pointed out that the design of the Luzon Osmena-sponsored survey is a faulty one that renders it as garbage data.

one of its fault is that the design is biased to producing very high scores compared to the regular quarterly surveys. the Luzon Osmena-sponsored survey asks respondents to choose among a specified list of presidentiables while the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys does not. it is open-ended, you name whoever you want.

you can mention any name, thus making distribution of the data highly scattered in effect making the ratings much lower for each candidate. it does not for example exclude respondents from naming roxas or panlilio both of whom have withdrawn. 

the tactical blunder is that with noynoy making a big deal about the very high 50% rating that he got in the Luzon Osmena-sponsored luzon SWS survey and the expected much lower rating he will get during the regular SWS survey Pulse Asia and SWS does, it will make it look like noynoy’s popularity has suffered a major set-back.

from 50% to at most 13% looks like it is a massive drop in popularity. playing the numbers game with these things is always a very dangerous thing to do. in fact regardless of the numbers, if aquino does not hit the top 2 in the regular quarterly ratings, it may be played up as some kind of a weakness if not a failure.

the tactical blunder is that aquino has inadvertently set up his audience and supporters for disappointment. he may have set the bar of expectations way too high.

political campaigns is very much about image building. building an image of being a winner is certainly one of the things you want to have. you want to nurture an image of momentum if not greatness or at least always being on the right thing.

the safest and smartest approach is always to downplay achievements, or hit the lower side so that there is an automatic claim of success. raising the bar too high is a very dangerous thing as it does not leave room for failure which is what aquino has done.

  1. Patrick Olano
    September 16, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    what is your point? that noynoy will not win in next year’s election and that manny villar will win?

    • September 16, 2009 at 8:45 pm

      i have explained my point in the post and it has nothing to do on who i think will win the election.

  2. September 16, 2009 at 4:34 pm

    well, what can i say? it’s your own personal opinion.
    we don’t see any dancing and hallelujahs from noynoy’s camp do we? i agree in part, but let me tell you this, even if the next surveys will be less than 50%, i can assure you that he will still top the result with a wide margin. unless of course it will be commissioned by the billionaire candidate.

    • September 16, 2009 at 8:48 pm

      it is simply too early in the “campaign period” for any one candidate to build a wide margin. these survey results will change and possibly in dramatic ways as we approach the election but not at this time yet.

      if noynoy gets to lead with a very wide margin in the next survey – it will be a miracle.

  3. September 16, 2009 at 5:18 pm

    the results of the next regular presdientiables of SWS and Pulse Asia will be most crucial for noynoy. it will define for us the kind of candidate that noynoy is.

    lets hope noynoy will handle the results well. he shuold get a good team to help him out on these things.

  4. Ces Lugo
    September 16, 2009 at 8:13 pm

    The political wheel has just started to turn and it is obvious that views expressed by those anti-noynoy would find gaps and holes to put their thumbs down.

    Honestly, the country will never improve and the plight of the masa will remain as such unless consolidated efforts from all Filipinos to seek for good governance and eradicate corruption becomes the target goal.

    If I can only vote, Noynoy Aquino is the one for me and my family.

  5. ConcernedOFW
    September 17, 2009 at 9:29 am

    “we do not think noynoy will get the same 50% rating in these polls. it will be a miracle if he does, or even come close to it. we think noynoy might get a 2 digit rating but we do not think it will be more than 13%.”

    Oh I’m really looking forward to the next survey results. That is your opinion and I respect it. But I think you are wrong. You may have a point, and might have been true if its any other politician. But hell, im not even a Noynoy supporter, but I think setting the bar to high is not that big of an issue. I really think getting 50% in the recent polls rattled other political parties, atleast made them think of a new way to get their campaign running.

    I believe its important for Noynoy to create extreme or high expectations as he is just riding the legacy of his parents, once all the hype is gone (cory’s death), he’ll be in big trouble, it might be too early to be showing off a 50% rating in the polls. but it’s one hell of a first impression. An impression that will imprint to most of the voters, especially the undecided ones.

    That’s my opinion. Peace! 😀

    • September 17, 2009 at 11:22 pm

      competitors of noynoy who got rattled by the 50% showing of noynoy are those who have not been advised on how to properly interpret the data. the design of the research was faulty and biased.

      noynoy will not get a 50% rating in the next real and legitimate poll that pulse asia and sws will be making. he will get a 2 digit rating but it will not be more than 13%. making a big deal about the 50% is setting a very high expectation for the results of the next survey which will be much lower than that.

      i am of course guessing as to what noynoy will get at the next poll. if he gets more than 13%, it will be a miracle.

  6. concernedOFW
    September 17, 2009 at 10:53 pm

    http://dantonremoto2010.blogspot.com/2009/09/early-days-or-bandwagon.html

    hi Wawam.. check out that blog entry by danton remoto. I kinda like how Lito Banayo explained the surveys very well. This goes to all who reads this blogs as well.

  7. September 17, 2009 at 11:09 pm

    this is this blogs view on that luzon osmena-sponsored SWS poll: aquino gets 50% in SWS september 2009 poll in NCR – not a view of what is next to come, it is garbage data, posted september 13.

    https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/09/13/aquino-gets-50-in-sws-septemebr-2009-poll-in-ncr-not-a-view-of-what-is-next-to-come-it-is-useless-data/

  1. September 16, 2009 at 8:53 pm

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