september 2009 SWS presidentiable poll :noynoy aquino’s spectacular rise to front runner is magical
we have said before that this september survey is a most important survey for all the presidentiables for the front runners, the new comers and the laggards.
- noynoy aquino getting a whopping 60% in the survey can only be described as spectacular. while we said in our previous post that it would be good for aquino to get a double digit rating, even if it is a low double digit. aquino getting a very high 60% double digit is just spectacular.
- aquino’s 60% rating is the highest that any presidentiable ever got since september 2007.
- there is further significance in that high 60% rating – it is a hugely dominant rating given the high number of declared/almost declared presidentiables at 13 and the survey format of any name can be mentioned. with so many presidentiables and the open ended question, a fragmented distribution is expected as it has been before aquino was included in the survey. for one candidate to amass such a high double digit rating is a clear sign of aquino’s popularity.
- villar is showing impressive strength – he is the only major presidentiable whose rating increased to 37% from 33% upon the onslaught of aquino’s front runner rating. that means villar continued to gain strength,
- his performance in this survey makes him the only other viable candidate to beat aquino.
- teodoro gained significantly to 4% from 0.8% but this is expected given that he was acclaimed standard bearer on september 16 which got teodoro optimum media exposure.
- it is however a very disappointing rating as it is a low single digit rating. we said in a previous post he needed to get a high single digit (7-9%) to show some semblance of being a contender in this election.
- being part of the ruling/admin party, we expected more from teodoro.
eddie villanueva & nicanor perlas
- we think villanueva and perlas need to re-asses their candidacy. in fact we think both should withdraw their candidacy, it is hopeless for both of them.
- perlas did not get any rating while villanueva improved to just 1%.
- we are saying they should withdraw their candidacy because they continue to get extremely low, hopeless ratings inspite of the efforts they exerted during that period.
- we suggest perlas and villanueva should seek senatorial seats instead.
what is next?
- all the presidentiables should re-assess their campaign strategies and plans. they need to contend with the new from runner, noynoy aquino.
- this is a honeymoon period for aquino. his ratings will weaken through the weeks as people get to know him better and his competitors dial up their own activities. the challenge for aquino is for him to sustain a gradual drop and avoid significant drops.
- villar’s campaign plans and activities are doing very well. he should continue with it but he needs to fill in the gaps.
this is our post in this blog last october 3:
sws and pulse asia must be ready to go on fieldwork for their last quarter 2009 presidentiables poll survey. they will probably do the fieldwork end of next week or the week after. they have to wait for things to settle down first on the ondoy storm. people are too preoccupied and very much distracted by ondoy that i doubt they will get any meaningful results for the survey.
it is a most crucial presidentiables poll in the 2010 presidential election.
- very major developments have occured among the presidentiables – mar roxas withdrew, noynoy aquino announced he is a presidentiable and gilbert teodoro was declared ruling/admin party standard bearer. ed panlilio and jejomar binay withdrew while bayani fernando was dumped by his party.
- we can expect major changes in ratings if not rankings.
- there will be a lot to interpret with the upcoming results just on those developments.
- the addition of ondoy will also add significantly to it. we can expect that the people’s ondoy experience or what others have witnessed happening to others will affect preferences.
- this quarter’s poll results will be particularly important to aquino, teodoro and villar.
- aquino based on the luzon sws poll jumped to close to the heavens with a 50% rating. the 4qtr poll will need to confirm his strong standing. he does not need to top the polls but doing a double digit rating even on the low double digit will be excellent news for aquino.
- teodoro is at the bottom of the heap of poll garbage. he has a measly 0.2%. he needs to show he can be a factor in the election with at least a high single digit rating. just hitting a low single digit will confirm what most everybody seem to say about him – he is a non-factor in the next election.
- what can be going for teodoro is that because of ondoy and being the chair of the NDCC, he has been getting a significant amount of press. is that good or bad? will that help his rating and ranking in the next poll?
- this will be important for villar as this will show a true test of villar’s leadership in the polls. he is the front runner and we will know if he still deserves that title given the above developments.
- the poll will also be crucial to the laggards. the poll results will tell them if they need to re-assess their candidacy. the time to drop out of the race is in december at the latest.
polls are the words of the people. to some the words may be harsh but to a few they will be kind. it is crunch time for all the presidentiables.