november SWS presidentiables survey: aquino is dominant front runner, villar is a contender while teodoro suffers as candidate of no consequence

this is the 5th nationally conducted presidentiables poll conducted by several research agencies that confirm the following:

  • noynoy aquino is the dominant front runner in this election
  • villar at 2nd is the only viable contender in this election
  • teodoro continue to suffer and is a presidentiable of no consequence in this election
  • estrada is a contender but a long shot

this is painful for teodoro as the survey was conducted after the following:

  • the ondoy/pepeng floods when teodoro was in the headlines doing his job as NDCC chair
  • the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party proclaimed teodoro as its standard bearer 
  • teodoro has already aired his “Galing At Talino” tv ads

the above says teodoro by the time of the survey was already known to the voters. getting a low 3% says the people were consciously not selecting teodoro in this survey. it also meant his performance as NDCC chair during the ondoy/pepeng floods meant it was unremarkable. the ondoy/pepeng floods would have been THE event where teodoro could have won over the voters with his performance as the government’s point person in disasters. this very low rating seem to say he was not seen by the people as making a difference during that time.

from a marketing standpoint, it may also indicate that teodoro’s ad campaign is not working or has no impact on his candidacy. the “Galing At Talino” ad was a first for teodoro as a candidate and it positioned him directly opposite noynoy aquino. the low ratings in this survey may indicate his ads are ineffective.

A special national survey sponsored by Puerto Princesa City Mayor Edward Hagedorn was conducted by SWS on November 4-8, 2009.

The survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 registered voters divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages).

The Commission on Elections’ latest counts of Registered Voters, by region and area, as of November 2009, were used to weight regional estimates to obtain area estimates, and to weight area estimates to obtain national estimates.

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