end-December SWS presidentiables poll – aquino remains formidable at #1, villar moves up by keeping laggards at bay, takes the undecided and others
this is the data from the latest SWS presidentiables poll which was commissioned by congressman zamora, an NP member. we are comparing the latest poll results, which was conducted december 27 to 28, 2009 to the SWS december 5-10, 2009 poll commissioned by business world (click here to read: SWS Business World Presidentiable Poll – aquino has dominant lead at 46.2%). we do not have yet the SWS data tables, so we are picking up the numbers from the PDI news article.
- Noynoy Aquino : 44% (dec 27-28) from 46.2% (dec 5-10) (2.2% loss)
- Manny Villa : 33% from 27% (+6% gain)
- Erap Estrada : 15% from 16% (+1% gain)
- Gilbert Teodoro : 5% from 4.6% (+0.4% gain)
- Eddie Villanueva : 1% from 1.1% (-0.1% loss)
- Richard Gordon : 0.5% from 0.9% (-0.4% loss)
- Undecided : 1% from 3.7% (-2.7% loss)
first of all, note that it is a very bad idea to compare the latest poll conducted december 27-28 versus the december 5-10 poll because the design of the two polls are different. the early december poll had a lot more choices of presidentiable names for the respondents to choose from. that survey included the names of lozano, crespo and perlas. the late december poll probably has only 8 names on it which are COMELEC’s official list of candidates.
a difference in number of names to choose from affects the distribution of the votes from a statistics standpoint. there is also a difference in the way the respondents make their choice.
another point – conducting this survey between christmas and new year is a very bad idea. any research agency will tell you conducting surveys of any kind during that period is not advisable as respondents tend to too preoccupied with the christmas and new year celebrations that their answers may not be as reliable compared to conducting surveys in dates other than those. the conventional wisdom is that no surveys are conducted from december 1 to until about the 1st week of january.
having said that, we should take this analysis with a grain of salt.
aquino continue to do well in this poll – he is still the dominant front runner in the poll. aquino is correct to say he has “staying power”. more importantly, the 2.2% loss of aquino from previous poll is meaningless as it probably falls within the margin of error. that means statistically, aquino’s ratings have not changed from the previous poll.
villar did very well in this poll, he gained +6%, a statistically significant gain. this is a tribute to the heavy advertising that villar has been airing.
villar gained not from aquino but from the other presidentiables like estrada and gordon and the other names that were included in the previous poll and now excluded in the latest poll. more importantly, villar gained from the “undecided”.
the key conclusion here is that villar is a real threat to the laggards group while he is unable to get switchers from aquino. this can mean aquino supporters are fiercely loyal and that villar’s efforts have no to little effect on aquino’s followers.
nevertheless, villar is a threat to aquino in this election. there is still time for villar to figure out how to get aquino supporters to switch to him.
this latest survey continue to confirm our prediction that this election will be one between aquino and villar.
unlike mass consumer products marketing and traditional marketing, political marketing is a very different animal all together. we think that except for villar, all other presidentiables are approaching this in the wrong marketing and advertising sense.
NP camp solicited latest SWS survey
By Michael Lim Ubac
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:08:00 01/09/2010
MANILA, Philippines—The lead of Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III over his nearest rival, Sen. Manny Villar, of the Nacionalista Party has been narrowed to 11 percent, according to a recent Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by a Villar ally.
Aquino was the choice of 44 percent of 2,100 respondents across the country in the SWS special yearend survey conducted from Dec. 27 to 28, 2009.
Villar obtained 33 percent, narrowing the gap with Aquino to 11 percent, and improving his ratings from the 27 percent he got in the earlier Dec. 5-10 SWS survey.