Pulse Asia February 2010 Presidentiables Poll : villar rating drops on corruption issue

it is interesting how the national surveys seem to be releasing consistent findings. this latest pulse asia poll result conducted late february is consistent with the findings of the TNS survey result, another national poll. (read here: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5)

this pulse asia  poll shows aquino still the front runner with no statistical change from previous poll with a of 36%. the poll has a margin error of +/12% at the 95% confidence level. 

villar was unable to continue to push up his rating and in fact suffered a loss of -6% points to now 29%. villar was on a continuous growing trend in previous polls.

we think villar’s loss was due to the C-5 controversy that he found himself at the start of the year that peaked with the speech he delivered at the senate denying there was any wrong doing, something that occurred during the fieldwork of this poll.

we wrote previously on this issue when TNS released it’s poll results.

 it looks like C-5 will hound the candidacy of villar. also makes us think that should he win the presidency, just like arroyo, villar will have a corruption issue hanging on his head throughout his presidency. it was the ”hello garci” case for arroyo, it might be C-5 for villar.  as in the “hello garci” case, the C-5 issue will not go away for villar. we think it is best that villar mop out a plan to get this issue to be resolved after the election, especially if he wins the election. he should do this for the sake of his presidency and the country.   the country needs closure on this issue.

click: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5

it was also at around that time when noynoy aquino changed his advertising campaign from the badly strategized rap tv ad targeting young voters to the more hard hitting and focused “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ads.

by a happy coincidence (or planned conspiracy by the noynoy camp), corruption was directly brought up by aquino as an election issue and his message while the the C-5 corruption controversy was heating up in the senate. the C-5 issues has been there for months but disappeared from the radar only to reappear interestingly during the heating up of the presidential campaign.

corruption we think  probably belongs to the top 3 issues voters have in this coming election. we also think it is one of the reasons why aquino continues to float as top contender in this election as it is one of the enduring brand images of aquino. aquino as seen by the people as clean and incorruptible given the legacy he and his family holds in the minds of voters. 

on the other hand, corruption is the enduring legacy of president arroyo . though unconfirmed, it is a sticking point on arroyo with many corruption scandals unresolved. people are tired of both arroyo and corruption.

aquino having his parents as heroes of  the country, ninoy and cory enjoys an image of  it is one thing that noynoy will not do.

it was great timing that  aquino’s ads spoke of no corruption for him  and corruption was the issue being hurled on villar. 

in today’s PDI headline story, it said it was the Villarroyo charge that pulled villar’s ratings. we disagree. the charge that villar is arroyo’s secret presidentiable did not really get a lot of media play compared to the C-5 and corruption messages of aquino. 

Villarroyo was mentioned by mar roxas at the tail end of the C-5 controversy and got some press play but it was really not explained or given enough meat for the people to understand and remember it.  the C-5 controversy on the other hand got long and in-depth media coverage by the press and extended for a few weeks.

it appears the voters understood what the C-5 is really about at its core. they were able to see that this goes beyond senators having a lover’s quarrel or a man of power exerting undue influence but as a form of corruption.

in simplistic terms, the voters had this in their minds – aquino who is clean versus villar who is tainted. for a moment there villar got defined as corrupt and aquino re-confirmed as not corrupt.

the aquino and villar campaigns should look at this poll results very closely and understand how it got there and what are the implications. they should do more in-depth study and analysis and conduct further research. we think doing this and extracting the appropriate insights  has a very strong possibility that it will give them the winning formula for this election.

(view rap ad here: noynoy aquino’s new tv ad – pinoy noynoy rap,
read here : noynoy aquino’s “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ad – the power of credibility in a powerful tv ad)

 

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the:

  • (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar;
  • (2) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson’s departure from the country days prior to the issuance of a warrant of arrest for him arising from his alleged involvement in the Dacer-Corbito double-murder case;
  •  (3) various problems related to the May 2010 elections such as the delay in the printing of ballots and delivery of PCOS machines, the possibility of cellphone jammers disrupting the transmission of election results, and the lack of telecommunications facilities in certain provinces;
  • (4) official start of the campaign period for national positions;
  • (5) COMELEC’s decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio;
  •  (6) Supreme Court’s dismissal of a petition to nullify the poll automation deal between the COMELEC and Smartmatic-TIM;
  • (7) plans of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th Congress;
  • (8) resignation of appointed government officials running in the May 2010 polls;
  • (9) continuing selection process for the next Supreme Court Chief Justice;
  • (10) arrest of 43 health workers who were tagged by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as members of the New People’s Army (NPA);
  • (11) onset of the El Niño phenomenon which has already caused crop damage amounting to P 3.7 billion;
  • (12) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and
  • (13) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal to grant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.

from the Pulse Asia website: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=710

  1. March 9, 2010 at 11:49 am

    Do not be fooled by any survey especially from Pulse Asia Survey and Social Weather Station Survey (SWS). I would believe it more if this is being conducted by a Foreign Company, but if this is being conducted by Filipino personnel it cannot be trusted! because they are BIAS most people believe that they are being conducted with favoritism. Nowadays, nobody trust Filipinos, not the COMELEC, not Arroyo, not the Villar, not the Noynoy with his TRAPOS, certainly not the Estrada (the Convict). Now, what made you think that surveys are trustworthy? There are over 50 million voters, there are only maybe 1500 to 2000 people beign surveyed. 1500-2000 may be a legitimate number to conduct surveys, but doubts remain if Filipino personnel are indeed interviewing 2000 people. Who knows they are probably just interviewing just 40-60 people and call it a day.
    It may seem this website trust the survey numbers maybe because Wawam works for a marketing agency. Remember, Filipinos are conducting the surveys and at the moment Filipinos cannot be trusted. Thank you to poll automation! the only main guide Filipinos can go by is with a candidate’s long track records of accomplishment.

  2. March 9, 2010 at 3:14 pm

    Election surveys are just propaganda – Gordon
    (The Philippine Star) Updated March 09, 2010 12:00 AM

    MANILA, Philippines – Bagumbayan presidential bet Sen. Richard Gordon yesterday said surveys conducted by various polling firms are mere propaganda.
    In a roundtable discussion with STAR editors and reporters, Gordon said voters should not base their decisions on survey results but on the track record of candidates.
    “The surveys are nothing but propaganda. We cherish our electoral process which is very transparent. We vote, they count. I have proven that through automated elections,” he said.
    Gordon said the survey firms should publish the names of people who commissioned the surveys.
    “In the surveys, they don’t even publish who are paying for these surveys. They must. I demand that they show it. Every presidential candidate, every senator, every congressman, they must show. I demand it. In the United States, they do that,” he said.
    Gordon also questioned the method used in the conduct of surveys, pointing out that when he ran for the Senate in 2004, the surveys placed him way out of the winning circle but he was elected anyway, even without votes from the Iglesia ni Cristo.
    “I was number 29 when I ran for the Senate and landed number 5 even without the Iglesia. How can I believe that (survey results)?” he said.
    Gordon said it is hard to believe that he has an approval rating of only one percent in the surveys when he got 13 million votes when he ran for the Senate.
    “They have surveyed 1,500 people. Have you met anyone who was surveyed? How can I get only one percent when I got 13 million votes last time? I think at least I’ll get 10 out of 100,” he said.
    Gordon said that in the previous presidential election, President Arroyo was supposed to win over her closest rival, the late Fernando Poe Jr. in the metropolis. But when the votes were counted, Poe won in all of Metro Manila except Las Piñas.
    “We are enriching the people who do the surveys,” he said, adding that one of the owners of a survey firm now reportedly has a big house in an upscale subdivision.
    “Who are running the surveys? What questions are they asking? Is my name even there?” he said. – Mike Frialde

  3. March 10, 2010 at 11:58 am

    BY I. CAÑETE DEMAIN

    AT the coffee shop where I hang out now and then, a numbers cruncher held fort yesterday on why the figures coming out of the pre-election surveys are cockeyed and suspect. And he points in particular to two persistent figures in the surveys: the one point ratings that Bro. Eddie Villanueva and Sen. Dick Gordon have been consistently getting as their share of voters’ preferences.

    If these figures are to be believed, he said, Bro. Eddie and Dick will get no more than half-a-million votes each, even assuming that all 50 million registered voters go to the polls. Yet in the 2004 presidential elections, Bro. Eddie took 6.2 percent of the 28.5 million votes cast—over 1.79 million. Since then, Bro. Eddie has been engaged in a perpetual campaign to expand his political and religious base. Considering this, and with the larger electorate this year, how on earth can SWS and Pulse Asia project him to win only 1 percent of prospective votes?

    In the case of Sen. Gordon, the case for questioning the survey figures is even more stark. Dick was a candidate for senator in the 2004 elections. Although tagged by the poll surveys as an also-ran, he wound up placing fifth in the actual vote count, besting the likes of Miriam Santiago and Juan Ponce Enrile, among others. He polled a total of 12.7 million votes. Now after having served for six years in the Senate—and being in the midst of so many major national issues—is it believable that he will only get half a million votes in May, again as predicted by the pollsters?

    The numbers cruncher concluded his presentation in this way: if SWS, Pulse Asia and the other survey firms really believe their numbers and are not just manipulating them, they should put their licenses on the line in the coming balloting. If Bro. Eddie and Dick pull more than their predicted votes, the pollsters will stop polling completely. On the other hand, if the two presidentiables fail to surpass the predictions, they will stop running for office.

    What say you, Mahar Mangahas, Ronnie Holmes, etc.?

    http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/top-stories/13001-good-morning

  4. March 25, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    I found this site about what people think about False Asia and SWS?

    http://2010presidentiablessurvey.wordpress.com/

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