Pulse Asia February 2010 Presidentiables Poll : villar rating drops on corruption issue
it is interesting how the national surveys seem to be releasing consistent findings. this latest pulse asia poll result conducted late february is consistent with the findings of the TNS survey result, another national poll. (read here: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5)
this pulse asia poll shows aquino still the front runner with no statistical change from previous poll with a of 36%. the poll has a margin error of +/12% at the 95% confidence level.
villar was unable to continue to push up his rating and in fact suffered a loss of -6% points to now 29%. villar was on a continuous growing trend in previous polls.
we think villar’s loss was due to the C-5 controversy that he found himself at the start of the year that peaked with the speech he delivered at the senate denying there was any wrong doing, something that occurred during the fieldwork of this poll.
we wrote previously on this issue when TNS released it’s poll results.
it looks like C-5 will hound the candidacy of villar. also makes us think that should he win the presidency, just like arroyo, villar will have a corruption issue hanging on his head throughout his presidency. it was the ”hello garci” case for arroyo, it might be C-5 for villar. as in the “hello garci” case, the C-5 issue will not go away for villar. we think it is best that villar mop out a plan to get this issue to be resolved after the election, especially if he wins the election. he should do this for the sake of his presidency and the country. the country needs closure on this issue.
it was also at around that time when noynoy aquino changed his advertising campaign from the badly strategized rap tv ad targeting young voters to the more hard hitting and focused “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ads.
by a happy coincidence (or planned conspiracy by the noynoy camp), corruption was directly brought up by aquino as an election issue and his message while the the C-5 corruption controversy was heating up in the senate. the C-5 issues has been there for months but disappeared from the radar only to reappear interestingly during the heating up of the presidential campaign.
corruption we think probably belongs to the top 3 issues voters have in this coming election. we also think it is one of the reasons why aquino continues to float as top contender in this election as it is one of the enduring brand images of aquino. aquino as seen by the people as clean and incorruptible given the legacy he and his family holds in the minds of voters.
on the other hand, corruption is the enduring legacy of president arroyo . though unconfirmed, it is a sticking point on arroyo with many corruption scandals unresolved. people are tired of both arroyo and corruption.
aquino having his parents as heroes of the country, ninoy and cory enjoys an image of it is one thing that noynoy will not do.
it was great timing that aquino’s ads spoke of no corruption for him and corruption was the issue being hurled on villar.
in today’s PDI headline story, it said it was the Villarroyo charge that pulled villar’s ratings. we disagree. the charge that villar is arroyo’s secret presidentiable did not really get a lot of media play compared to the C-5 and corruption messages of aquino.
Villarroyo was mentioned by mar roxas at the tail end of the C-5 controversy and got some press play but it was really not explained or given enough meat for the people to understand and remember it. the C-5 controversy on the other hand got long and in-depth media coverage by the press and extended for a few weeks.
it appears the voters understood what the C-5 is really about at its core. they were able to see that this goes beyond senators having a lover’s quarrel or a man of power exerting undue influence but as a form of corruption.
in simplistic terms, the voters had this in their minds – aquino who is clean versus villar who is tainted. for a moment there villar got defined as corrupt and aquino re-confirmed as not corrupt.
the aquino and villar campaigns should look at this poll results very closely and understand how it got there and what are the implications. they should do more in-depth study and analysis and conduct further research. we think doing this and extracting the appropriate insights has a very strong possibility that it will give them the winning formula for this election.
(view rap ad here: noynoy aquino’s new tv ad – pinoy noynoy rap,
read here : noynoy aquino’s “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ad – the power of credibility in a powerful tv ad)
The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the:
- (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar;
- (2) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson’s departure from the country days prior to the issuance of a warrant of arrest for him arising from his alleged involvement in the Dacer-Corbito double-murder case;
- (3) various problems related to the May 2010 elections such as the delay in the printing of ballots and delivery of PCOS machines, the possibility of cellphone jammers disrupting the transmission of election results, and the lack of telecommunications facilities in certain provinces;
- (4) official start of the campaign period for national positions;
- (5) COMELEC’s decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio;
- (6) Supreme Court’s dismissal of a petition to nullify the poll automation deal between the COMELEC and Smartmatic-TIM;
- (7) plans of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th Congress;
- (8) resignation of appointed government officials running in the May 2010 polls;
- (9) continuing selection process for the next Supreme Court Chief Justice;
- (10) arrest of 43 health workers who were tagged by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as members of the New People’s Army (NPA);
- (11) onset of the El Niño phenomenon which has already caused crop damage amounting to P 3.7 billion;
- (12) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and
- (13) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal to grant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.
from the Pulse Asia website: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=710