Home > 2010 philippine presidential election, eddie villanueva, erap estrada, gilbert teodoro, manny villar, noynoy aquino, presidentiable polls, presidentiables, richard gordon > march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays

march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays

this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.

aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but  he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.

villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past.  villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air.  villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.

estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.

the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.

presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline.  doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return  for them.

Aquino opens up lead versus Villar

LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.

Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.

Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.

Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.

Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.

There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).

source: http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=8479

  1. Mark
    March 29, 2010 at 7:24 pm

    You can say whatever you want about the polls. Many people believe they are false ratings, untrue to misdirect voters.

    @mark/2010presidentiablesurvey – please refrain from using multiple user names in posting comments in this blog. continuing to do so will have you banned from this blog.

    • March 30, 2010 at 1:30 am

      what does “false ratings” mean? and “untrue to misdirect voters”?

      • 2010presidentiablessurvey
        March 30, 2010 at 7:04 am

        At the moment Filipinos cannot be trusted when it comes to election surveys. Filipinos would trust it more if it is being conducted by legitimate foreign company. You waste your and people's time writing your column about SWS surveys. There ought to be a law preventing paid advertising companies like SWS and False Asia of broadcasting there false results. Wawam, since you already establish millions of audience reading your website, why don't you conduct another survey like what this person did in ---- . Conduct a survey in your site if people believe SWS and Pulse Asia? You will be doing our country a big favor by bringing in some truth to the survey and you will remove doubts from many people like me . I bet you yourself will be surprise of the results provided you will not manipulate your website tools set by wordpress by selecting the right option...
        O--Don't block repeat voters
        O--Block by cookie (recommended)
        O--Block by cookie and by IP address
        Blocking by cookie and IP address can be problematic for some voters.

        Wawam, ots a legitimate request and suggestion to help silence many people. If you refuse to do this one...then you marketing company is just wasting your time writing such column.


        @mark/2010presidentiablesurvey - please refrain from using multiple user names in posting comments in this blog. continuing to do so will have you banned from this blog.

        • March 30, 2010 at 10:23 am

          why would survey results be more reliable if they are conducted by foreigners? it’s a ridiculous notion that foreigners have the magic power for reliability.

          every person is entitled to believe or not to believe survey results. they are just like any other bit of information released through media.

          • Mark
            March 30, 2010 at 11:10 am

            Because legitimate foreign company is nonbias compared to Filipino companies when it come to surveys. They act as an independent individual who has no personal interest. Just like the US courts select a jury who has no personal involvement or connection about a certain case. So is that mean NO/YES you will conduct a survey about Pulse Asia or SWS? Miilions of Filipinos demands the truth even though this is just an internet mock poll. We still have time before the election. Thanks

            –by way its not a multiple user name if you look closely my website is listed with my name.

            • March 30, 2010 at 11:14 am

              the polling companies are as non-biased as anyone else. most of the presidentiables, specially the major candidates actually subscribe to the polls.

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