2010 election: aquino landslide win, teodoro hail mary pass, villar collapse and estrada to win the election?
the villarroyo development puts many new things into the table now. there used to be only 1 item on the table – a close election between villar and aquino and estrada as the dark horse.
with the new developments on the arroyo’s secret candidate in villar on top of the teodoro being their candidate, we now see new things on the table:
- villar collapse – we have seen what arroyo’s kiss of death did to gilbert teodoro – super glued to fourth place from survey to survey, unable to get up to even a double digit rating in the polls. if the villarroyo charge sticks, we can see a transfer of arroyo’s kiss of death on villar. that is IF the kiss of death is transferable to others.
- teodoro on a hail mary pass – we are totally confounded by teodoro. he did not see any of this coming? now he is left out in the open all by himself. in this whole thing, teodoro is the most abused by his mentors. teodoro decided to leave NPC to join lakas-kampi-cmd to fulfil his presidential ambitions. his party did not welcome him with open arms. they didn’t want him to be their standard bearer. from the very beginning they were vocal on that. this rejection by his own party was also shown in the fact that none of the big time lakas candidates wanted to be his vice presidential mate. fast forward to a few weeks ago we hear his campaign complaining on lack of funding from the party. a few days ago he quits as chair of his party apparently because he got to know that arroyo supports villar. all of these, teodoro did not see coming? really? well, he will now be pushed to most probably do a hail mary pass – completely remove himself from the grip of the arroyos and start attacking the them. that we think can get him back into the election.
- estrada a clear possibility – these developments is good news for estrada. recent SWS poll show estrada gained from villar when villar got hit by the C-5 corruption issue. a collapse by villar can mean, if the recent developments in the polls continue to hold, estrada gaining in the polls which can make him a true contender in this election. however, there is so much irony here — villar collapsing on a corruption issue for erap to gain who is a convicted criminal of a crime of plunder, a corruption verdict of the highest order for public officials.
- aquino poised for a landslide win – only aquino gets the good news on this one. aquino has been on a single minded positioning of anti-corruption. by sheer luck, the recent developments gives the election to aquino on a silver platter, setting him up for a possible landslide win in the election. with his closest rival, villar to be enshrined with being supported by the mother of all corruption, the arroyos, this leaves aquino untainted, clean and without blemish. it can be a wake up call for voters, specially for villar supporters.
if there is anything to be learned in this whole episode, it is this – it’s a fluid election. unfortunately and i say this with a tinge of shame and embarrassment the election being fluid is not being caused by a debate of changing national issues but by the stuff of telenovela twists and turns. very pinoy. hay naku….