Home > 2010 philippine presidential election, erap estrada, manny villar, mindscape landmark, noynoy aquino, presidentiables, surveys & polls, why manny villar will lose the election > dramatic losses in internals for top 3 presidentiables but aquino leads, erap 2nd, villar drops to 3rd – May 2010 SWS-Business World presidentiables survey

dramatic losses in internals for top 3 presidentiables but aquino leads, erap 2nd, villar drops to 3rd – May 2010 SWS-Business World presidentiables survey

the sws-business world may 2-3 poll shows some interesting developments in the internal scores with major changes in them although the over-all outcome did not show any changes.

noynoy aquino continue to be the front runner but has gained significantly from previous to now 42% from 38%, a 4% point gain. the survey has a 2.2% margin of error.

erap estrada also gained significantly from previous to now 20% from 17% and overtakes manny villar who suffered a major drop to now 19% from the previous 26%. the significant drop for villar and significant gain for erap has put them now on a statistical tie. although the momentum is on the side of estrada.

it appears to us villar has not found the correct formula to arrest his declining numbers. we have said previously in this blog that villar’s drop has been caused by the unresolved C-5 corruption scandal, concretized by the Villarroyo name and villar’s move from the side of good to evil in his parties efforts at black propaganda most of which backfired and hurt his campaign instead.

(read here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/why-manny-villar-will-lose-the-election/)

the over-all ratings and rankings have not changed  from previous. however, it is noteworthy that aquino’s lead over estrada is dramatic, a +22% lead, more than double than what estrada has. aquino has 42% versus estrada’s 20%.

the internals of their scores are quite interesting to look at.

aquino’s NCR ratings grew significantly to 43% from 35% while his socio-eco class rating among the ABC dropped to 44% from 53%. we find that a very unusual movement as most of the ABC class are located in NCR. these ratings seem to be contradicting each other. we wonder if there is a tabulation error in this report.

estrada’s mindanao rating has gone up dramatically to 30% from 22%.  this is probably driven mostly by estrada’s mindanao-specific tv ad that he has been airing in the past weeks. estrada may have found a very strategic move in this election. he is the only presidentiable who ran mindanao-specific tv ads.

another notable movement in estrada’s internal scores is his ABC rating which is now 14% from the previous 6%, more than doubling from previous. we wonder if this is related to the question we have posted on the ABC tallies in aquino’s scores.

villar’s significant drop in over-all rating to 19% from 26% may have been brought about by dramatic deterioration of his ratings in the NCR, from 18% to 10%, a cut of more than half; balance luzon from 25% to 20%, a quarter drop and mindanao , another drop by more than half from 31%  to 15%.  we think these are very alarming deterioration of villar’s ratings.

significant drops in villar’s ratings occurred across all socio-eco classes, -9% pts in ABC, -7% in D and -10% in E. across the board drops in geography and socio-classes is showing villar supporters are showing fluid movements confirming what we said previously that villar’s supporters are most vulnerable to poaching by other presidentiables.

these movements should tell the presidentiable campaigns to look into geographic and demographics segmentation to improve their over-all ratings. unfortunately, because it is just a few days before election, there is not much they can do to recover or push their ratings in the direction they want it to be.

Aquino pads poll lead

Gap now 22 points; Estrada overtakes Villar

WITH THE MAY 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.

The May 2-3 poll, conducted roughly a week before Filipinos troop to the precincts, gave Mr. Aquino the support of 42%, up four points and ahead of former President Joseph “Erap” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masa who was now in second place with three-point gain to 20%.

Erstwhile second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) was a point behind at 19%, a result within the survey’s error margin of 2.2%. His support was down seven points from the prior BW-SWS poll of April 16-19.

The gap between the top two was 22 points, wider than the 12 Mr. Aquino enjoyed over Mr. Villar in the last survey.

source:  http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=10589

 

~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~
carlo arvisu

  1. julito de leon
    May 8, 2010 at 11:55 am

    I see no other presidentiable that Filipinos can be proud of, Its only GIBO TEODORO
    He is incomparable from the rest candidate. If he losses this election, he lost nothing except money but his dignity, honesty, moral values and his whole being remain. Any of the three, ERAP, Noynoy and Villar who fondly enjoy mudslinging in their campaign sorties would only add more chaos to worsening economic ssituation of the country. The first one to suffer are the poor. Please help our country VOTE GIBO TEODORO THE BEST OF THEM ALL, AND WOULD BE THE BEST PRESIDENT EVER HAD, GOD WILLING.

    • xzizbit
      May 8, 2010 at 1:08 pm

      i dont think gibo would be a good president… yet no. 1 thing he is a administration well he will be a puppet of congresswoman arroyo…. though the best of all is Gordon he made subic a tax free city and gordon create works for the poor people or lets say unemployed people… the 2nd thing is erap though he corrupts BUT he help the people in TONDO to have theyre homes and its for FREE… rather than villar this sure that he has build many houses BUT still you pay for it and erap also make the philippines free like in freeport customs tax pay etc. about Noynoy i dont think he could be a great leader too… when i review him i dont know what does he do he just enjoying publicity with her sister KRIS AQUINO so that Noy can have many more votes… VOTE WISELY… read theyre biography…

  2. julito de leon
    May 8, 2010 at 12:04 pm

    NOYNOY PROBLEM SOLVER ? ? ? ? ? ?
    How could he be a problem solver when the Hacienda Luisita massacre remains unsolved???? When he refuses to marry Shalani… What are his past achievements to boost that he could be a good president…. He is greedy as in greedy… How could he helps the poor when the farmers in their hacienda remains poor and starving. What kind of heart they have for the poor giving a salary of 9.50 pesos per day?…. Filipinos don’t be decisive with survey and popularity. Vote for the right and competent person, clean and honest in words and in deeds….

  3. May 9, 2010 at 3:33 am

    Filipinos dont be deceived, these 3 are most corrupt or dangerous candidates of all…Any one them will bring our country to worst condition. Think wisely.

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