the key reasons why a landslide win is possible for noynoy aquino

one day before the elections and we are putting our foot down – either to be cut by rampaging train if we are wrong or we start a rampage on our own if we are right.

we this election is for aquino to lose villar to win and estrada to upset his opponents as the dark horse.

we think  given the trends from the polls and the actions aquino and his opponents have executed in the past few days, we think aquino is not set to not just win, but a possibility of a landslide win is in the horizon.

these are the key points why we think a landslide win is now possible for aquino:

  • aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning
  • not once was aquino threatened by any other candidate in the polls
  • his closest opponent, manny villar took drastic declines too close to the election. arresting the decline, recovery from it and reversing the trend is impossible to achieve given the the time available
  • manny villar, aquino’s strongest opponent is now suffering with a declining trend
  • erap estrada gaining in the polls came too late, he no longer has time to build on his momentum. he will fall short of his target.
  • none of aquino’s competitors did anything dramatic to propel themselves to the top or bring down aquino
  • aquino has sustained his stature, no huge scandal has erupted in the last few days
  • aquino’s rating of 42% is formidable given that his closest  rival, villar and estrada are at 20% to 19%, one half of aquino’s rating. that margin is insurmountable given just a few days from survey time to election time. this is not a close election anymore, it is a rout. one more way of appreciating the margin – even if you combine the ratings of his closest rivals, 39%,   aquino’s 42%  will still make him win this election.

the bottom line is that given the above, aquino with just a few days to go in this election has gained a very strong upward momentum while his closest rivals are on a decline trend (villar)  and on a slight  upward trend (estrada) but with no time to reach aquino.

an increasing trend only becomes viable if the leaps are very significant like the way binay is aggressively gaining on roxas. estrada’s upward trend is not as impressive as that of binay.

with just a few hours to go until the poll opens, the aquino campaign has much more to celebrate.

  1. dodi
    May 10, 2010 at 11:45 am

    You are being presumptuous. Are you also into mind-conditioning?

  2. mike
    May 10, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    are you stupid like your candidate? what landslide win are you talking about? how many attended your miting de avance? 10000? 20000 at most? landslide? you definitely are one of the people that are into mind conditioning so stop it but i dont blame you, i know you got paid big time to do this.

  3. Rajn_d; Bukidnon
    May 11, 2010 at 8:34 am

    Aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning.

    Really? I thought the beginning started with campaigns.

    Polls (n) – the casting and registering of votes.

    Did not the polls start just yesterday? So I thought, well, COMELEC results do show he led from the beginning of the counting. But wait, this article was written May 9!

    !@#$%

    ituwid mo pagkakamali mo!

  4. raikun07
    May 11, 2010 at 12:15 pm

    You’re no different from those who publicize surveys. That’s all, you know what we mean.

  5. May 11, 2010 at 12:26 pm

    Rajn_d; Bukidnon :

    Aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning.

    Really? I thought the beginning started with campaigns.

    Polls (n) – the casting and registering of votes.

    Did not the polls start just yesterday? So I thought, well, COMELEC results do show he led from the beginning of the counting. But wait, this article was written May 9!

    !@#$%

    ituwid mo pagkakamali mo!

    “poll” also means surveys as well as “election”. when it is an election survey, it is generally referred to as an election “poll”.

    “survey” is the general term for research involving getting sentiments. it is commonly used to refer to research other than election polls.

  6. Rod
    May 11, 2010 at 1:03 pm

    Wawam, a lot of people are in awe now by your prediction if not eating their own words. I like Gordon but I know what you mean. Peace!

  7. jp
    May 11, 2010 at 1:32 pm

    you all forgot, the vote was rigged by the LP … what i find distinctly improbable is that in most precincts results i looked at from the official tally page, in most cases where Aquino was on top, his percentage share is almost uniform … 41% +/- 2% … too uniform to look to true …

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