three more reasons why VP Jojo Binay should panic
the previous weeks have not been very good for vp jojo binay for himself and for his 2016 presidential ambition. charges at the ombudsman have been filed, the senate hearing on the overpriced Makati Parking Building started, aside from the parking building, many more issues have been unearthed and just recently the Pulse Asia surveys have been released where it has shown dramatic declines on his presidential ambitions.
we did say it is time for binay to panic.
as if the above have not been enough, here are three more reasons why binay should panic :
1. this person named mar roxas, another presidentiable allied with president noynoy aquino. roxas have had some bad press in recent months and when the presidentiables surveys came out, he did not do very well.
that may have change in the recent surveys and it is one of the reasons why binay should panic. here are the reasons why roxas should make binay panic:
mar roxas’ numbers in the latest pulse asia survey have been spectacular :
- roxas’ national ratings nearly doubled in september versus june, 10 13% from 7%. in fact from march, it has more than doubled – from 6% to 13%,
- his ratings in visayas and mindanao showed spectacular increases – doubling in visayas in september from june (from 11% to 22%) and more than doubled in mindanao from 8% in march to 19% in september.
- there were also spectacular increases among the D and E socio eco classes – among the D it doubled from 6% in march to 12% in september and an even more spectacular jump among the E where it more than doubled from March, 8% to 19% in September.
these are all spectacular increases. anytime your political base doubles be it in an area or among social classes, it is always spectacular and shows very big promise. this shows those who have abandoned binay are mostly moving over to roxas. binay’s loss is roxas’ gain.
2. dramatic changes in ranking – competition are gaining – the loss of supporters for binay showed his major competitors have gained. the changes in the rankings have been dramatic.
except for estrada, the chart shows that the traditionally strong presidentiables like roxas and santiago benefited from the deterioration in binay’s supporters. roxas who was ranked 5th in the june survey is now 2nd and santiago who was 6th is not 3rd. this shows they are gaining on binay.
3. the last reason why vp jojo binay should panic is this person called jojo binay himself. the chart shows a dramatic drop in supporters for binay from the upper calss, the ABC socio-eco class, from 47% in march to just 23% in september, he lost more than half of his supporters among the upper class.
the upper class are not just the thinking class, they are also the loudest class. they do speak and they will speak to others about their feelings. having them dump you as a presidentiable is not a good thing. not only that, their topic when they talk will most likely be about the corruption allegations and charges uncovered on binay. those are poison topics. the upper class talking about these on binay is not good content for the 2016 election.
the upper class admittedly is a small portion of the population but not having them on your side will eventually influence the rest of the country. the losses among the poor, DE socio-eco classes are big but not yet dramatic but when the dramatic deterioration happens among these groups of voters, it is good-bye 2016 for binay.
in analyzing data, one looks for the big changes, drops or increases and the trends. when you see these things on a set of data, it tells you where the red flags are and where the celebrations are located. these are just a first set of data points, a trend can’t still be seen. but the big changes in numbers, specially that these are dramatic drops is a big worry. what if the dramatic drops is the beginning of a trend?
the other thing you look at are “magnitude” and where they occur. some changes are not significant and therefore should not be worrisome. but if a change is like one half of the whole thing, that is magnitude staring at your face that should make you worry. imagine – losing one half of your support base in a particular segment. it is like you are a singer and when you reach half of the song you are singing, one half of the audience leaves the theater. that would alarm you and yes, it says something about your performance and skills. that is what happened to binay in some of the points in this survey.
that says one thing – it is time to panic!