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erap estrada attacks Vulnerable Villar for the election win

April 23, 2010 3 comments

 we have written before in this blog , telling all the laggards in this election that the path to winning this election specifically for them is though Vulnerable Villar’s  voter base whose loyalty to  Vulnerable Villar has been weakened by the C-5 and Villarroyo controversies.erap estrada with the help of  juan ponce enrile, the self-appointed nemesis of manny villar launched a brilliant attack against Vulnerable Villar for the election win.

of all the presidentiables, only villar’s ratings have shown movement one way or the other. and of late, villar’s voter base showed fluidity on the downward trend. movements like these show vulnerability to poaching by other presidentiables.

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read to click here:

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the estrada/enrile attack is a brilliant move:

  • it recognizes and exploits the weakness of Vulnerable Villar
  • it is consistent withe the topic where Vulnerable Villar is most vulnerable to – the charge of using his influence and corruption, the same kind of topic on the C-5 corruption controversy
  • this plays up and continues to make use of  the  Villarroyo weakness of Vulnerable Villar
  • we had written before in this blog that the C-5 controversy and Villarroyo is hurting Vulnerable Villar and the trend of his ratings are showing huge red flags
  • the timing of the attack is brilliant – just a few weeks to go till election time. there might not be enough time  for villar to parry the attack and recover from it.

the move may be brilliant but the there is gigantic hole in this move  and that is erap estrada himself.

erap estrada is the only one among all the presidentiables who is a convicted criminal, all the other presidentiables have not committed a crime. the crime estrada was convicted on is about the same topic, too – corruption, plunder specifically according to the laws of the country. 

more than that, erap estrada was also involved in making hay in the stock market during his presidency. one of the primary topics during the plunder case for erap was this stock called BW Resources which many billed as the country’s biggest stock market scam or scandal. that one involved price fixing.

enrile may have done the expose on his own as a big disfavor to manny villar but if he did that on his own, the voters may swing away from villar to noynoy aquino.  estrada needed to be in the picture as that is the point of the whole exercise.

the question they needed to answer and i am sure it is one that was unanswered as they concluded the meeting was it was worth a try. estrada is a far 3rd in the polls. he needed an immediate and humongous boost to get him close to the fight.

his way towards reaching aquino is by stepping on manny villar, the 2nd placer who is showing an erosion of voter base in the polls. they must have figured that they do not need to bother with aquino, all they need  is to get the supporters of Vulnerable Villar which in truth will be more than enough for erap to overtake aquino and win this election.

will voters abandon Vulnerable Villar and vote erap estrada instead? or will Vulnerable Villar’s supporters move over to aquino instead?

corruption is the number 1 issue in this election. it has become a lightning rod and a shepherd’s call. aquino used it to good effect and sustained a leading voter base; it was a pied piper call that led supporters to abandon Vulnerable Villar, will it be one for the benefit of erap estrada, the convicted criminal on the crime of corruption?

we do not think so.

voters will not move from one form of corruption to another form of corruption. voters will move to white space and that is noynoy aquino.

we think this development, if estrada and enrile succeeds in making the VLL corruption stick on Vulnerable Villar will benefit noynoy aquino the most.  the whole thing will reinforce even further, stronger and deeper, the aquino image of a clean and honest presidentiable. aquino will come out as unblemished while all others are either blackened, garbage plagued and invisible. the invisibles are gordon, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes. teodoro joins villar and estrada with teodoro dumped with gloria macapagal arroyo’s kiss of death, the mother of all corruption in the country.  

one more episode in the telenovela twists and turns of this election.

Villar: Trouble with hellos

NP bet used influence to twist stock market rules

By Gerry Lirio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:40:00 04/23/2010

(First of two parts)

MANILA, Philippines—Hello Fe! Hello Francis!

Sen. Manny Villar called Fe Barin, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Francis Lim, then president of the Philippine Stock Exchange, many times sometime between May and June 2007, the Philippine Daily Inquirer has learned.

But the calls, according to SEC and PSE lawyers and brokers interviewed by the Inquirer on separate occasions, were “too many to be easily dismissed and forgotten.”

They couldn’t forget about the calls either, they said, most especially because Villar, then Senate President, wanted the SEC and PSE officials “to throw the exchange rules out the window.”

Villar was seeking the release from escrow of about 1.2 billion of the 5.3 billion secondary shares of Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc. in June 2007 so these could be offered both as primary and secondary shares at the same time, or several days apart.

The Senate President not only made the calls, he also appeared before SEC and PSE board meetings, the lawyers said.

Villar and his wife Cynthia, the Las Piñas representative, are majority stockholders of Vista Land, the couple’s flagship company.

The couple became P6.75 billion richer from the secondary offering of 985.9 million shares that began on July 26, 2007, or within the escrow period of 180 days from the date of initial offering.

Lawyers said this violated article III, part D, section 7, of the exchange’s revised listing rules, which provides for a 180-day lockup on the secondary shares.

Vista Land, formed only in February 2007 to oversee operations of decades-old real estate brands Camella, a listed firm, Crown Asia and Brittany, made P14.5 billion from the sale of 2.12 billion primary shares.

Despite a weak showing in early trade, share prices soared to more than the offer price of P6.90, or up to as much as P7.50 per share. Share prices subsequently took a dive and hardly recovered since the secondary offering.

Simply put, Villar wanted the secondary offering held at once, despite the 180-day lock-up rule. He wanted to seize the day while the market was bullish. And he got it.

180-day lock-up rule

The rule, according to a PSE document obtained by the Inquirer, requires a company to cause its shareholders owning at least 10 percent of its issued and outstanding capital to enter into an agreement not to sell, assign, or in any manner dispose of their shares within the 180-day period from the listing of the shares.

The 180-day rule effectively puts the secondary shares in escrow mainly to allow the public buying into the primary shares to have their due course, stabilize the market share of prices, and to prevent the majority stockholders from abandoning the company which could take place during a secondary offering.

“It is an assurance that the majority stockholders are not selling just because they want to abandon ship and that they want to first jump from it,” an SEC lawyer said.

It also allows the SEC to check a company’s tangible assets of any legal encumbrances and, if so, if it is worth stopping the public offering.

How Villar managed to get his wish shocked some SEC and PSE lawyers and stockbrokers. Five of them talked to the Inquirer separately at the height of the controversy surrounding an ethical complaint lodged by Sen. Jamby Madrigal against the billionaire-senator last year in connection with the multibillion C-5 road diversion controversy.

Lobbying for private business

The trouble with Villar’s phone calls, the lawyers said, was that these were “unethical and inappropriate” because he was a high-ranking government official personally lobbying for his private business interest. “These exerted so much pressure on the PSE board,” a lawyer added.

Read more…

presidentiables change tv ad executions to save their campaigns

April 22, 2010 1 comment

Cover of April 2010 issue of Entrepreneur Philippines (left) where this blog was quoted; title page of article on the right

quotes from this blog on the advertising ran by the presidentiables were published in the april 2010 issue of Entrepreneur Philippines Magazine (cover photos, above). we like to run some parallel points to those quoted in the magazine.

the heaviest spenders, aquino and villar have been churning out new executions in a fast clip. that is the way to go – they need to put on air the ad most relevant to voters. politics and national issues change very rapidly. most national issues take at most has a lifespan of 3 days. there are very few instances when issues take weeks on the front page and headlines.

first, it’s not easy to come up with new ads frequently specially for political campaigns. the second biggest problem is scheduling. the presidentiables are constantly on the move, travelling to the provinces for sorties, in some instances at least 4 different locations in a day. getting them in manila for a tv shot is very difficult. you can of course shoot the commercial where the presidentiable is but that will be very costly for them.

the biggest problem is getting the ad or the storyboard done by the ad agency. not many ad agencies have the ability and the smarts to churn out tv ads in a huff. the challenge is very daunting and huge – you need to read the the issues properly, read the pysche of the voters , then you write the strategy after which you write the storyboard.  the first leg is the most difficult.

while we recognize the campaigns are doing well in airing new tv spots, we are not necessarily saying they are airing the right ads.  we all be talking about those next here at the 2010 Presidentiables Blog.

page 65 of the Entrepreneur Philippines Magazine

 the noynoy aquino ad campaign has very recently taken a different strategy.it is now on a bandwagon, winner’s approach claiming back the “people’s campaign” platform he started with. this ad portrays aquino, not directly said but obvious as the eventual winner.

this is a high risk approach. it is too much of a soft ad that we think is inappropriate at this time when election time is still weeks away, the issues raised against aquino have not been answered and his closes rival, manny villar is not about to give up anytime soon.  more on the villar ad campaign in a later post.

(click to read: manny villar and loren legarda airs negative ad – attack tv ad against noynoy aquino)

erap estrada has also since revised his advertising strategies. interestingly enough, estrada has dropped his “nostalgia campaign”. that is a smart move. estrada now talks about national issues and performance. it’s good that estrada changed his ad campaign, but we think he was not wise in choosing the issues he talks about as they are on the fringe of the voter mind.

there is however something very irritating about his ads – he appears to be too much in showbiz rather than presidential which among all the presidentiables, only he can actually claim being once a president of the country. once in showbiz, always in showbiz?

read the articles of the source of the quotes.

click to read article : noynoy aquino to lose the election due to advertising blunders

click to read article: presidentiables ad themes: villar-poverty, aquino-corruption, estrada-nostalgia and teodoro-ego trip

pulse asia march 2010 presidentiables poll results : point of no return – an election for aquino to lose and villar to win

April 20, 2010 3 comments

the results of this latest pulse asia poll, march 21 to 28, 2010 is highly consistent with the march 2010 poll of  SWS for the same month – villar’s ratings dropping, aquino holding and the effect aquino the front runner is widening his lead over villar.

not much has changed for the others. teodoro continue to be stuck at 7% rating but gordon has shown improvement going to now 2% from 1%. however, with the +/- 2% pts margin of error, that means no change for gordon.

we think we have reached a point of no return for most of the presidentiables, starting from teodoro, gordon and down the rest.  with lack of funds, lack of time and lack of support, these presidentiables have no luck at this election.

what we previously said stands – this election is for noynoy to lose, villar to win and estrada as the dark horse.

even on estrada, with little movement on his ratings, the dark horse label may have been lost as well. he is probably destined to join the rest.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from March 21 to 28, 2010 using face to face interviews.  Prior to and during the conduct of the survey, several events grabbed the headlines and these are as follows: (1) the Supreme Court’s declaration that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has the authority to appoint the successor of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno and the protests that followed the high court’s decision; (2) various appointments made by the President following the Supreme Court’s ruling; (3) the start of the official campaign season for the local elections; (4) election-related concerns including double registrants in the voters’ list, downgrading of security features in the ballot, and questions regarding the nominees of several party-list groups and Commission on Elections (COMELEC) Chairperson Jose A.R. Melo’s dismissal of a “failure of elections” scenario despite these and other problems; (5) the possible disqualification of several presidential candidates due to failure to abide by election laws regarding airtime limits on their campaign advertisements and placement and size of their campaign materials (e.g., billboards); (6) the expression of support for the Nacionalista Party’s (NP) presidential candidate, Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr., by some allies of President Arroyo in Cebu; (7) reports regarding the falling-out between President Arroyo and Philippine National Police (PNP) Director General Jesus Versoza following the latter’s declaration that he will not support any attempt to extend the President’s term should there be a failure of elections in May 2010; (8) the government’s decision to retain its original growth target of 2.6% to 3.6% despite the El Niño phenomenon; and (9) continued oil price hikes.

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=712

presidentiables stand on improving philippine education

April 18, 2010 3 comments

THE COUNTRY’S spending for education as a percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) is shrinking compared with those of other countries in the region. Partly for this reason, the Philippines suffers from a shortage of classrooms even as participation rates deteriorate. The elementary-school participation rate dropped from 96.8 percent in school year 2000-2001 to 85.1 percent in 2008-2009, while the high-school participation rate slipped from 66.1 percent to 60.7 percent.

Academic performance in Science and Math among elementary and high school students remains dismal.

We can glean from the answers of the presidential candidates to the following questions how the next administration will address the challenge of improving Philippine education:

How will you arrest the declining school participation rates?

How will you solve the classroom shortage?

Will you increase the budget for education under your administration?

By how much?

How will you improve the quality of education in the country?
Are you in favor of an additional year (a total of 11 years—7 years elementary and 4 years high school) for basic education? Why? Why not?
What about teachers’ salaries?

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal Party

ONE OF THE REASONS FOR the decline in school participation is the poor health of pupils. The health program must be supplemented by a feeding program. But where do you get the money?

You build 40,000 schools or enroll about a million students in private schools. If you enroll the same class in a private school instead of building classrooms, chairs or blackboards the price difference is P100,000 per classroom, which can fund the feeding program.

The facilities are already there and the private schools become your partner in taking care of the overhead.

The ideal education budget is 5 percent (of GDP) but we are only around 3 percent today.

Before I spend money, I’ll make sure that I already have it. We’re targeting to increase the tax effort by 2 percentage points or about P150 billion, depending on the deficit that will be bequeathed to us.

And then you have P280 billion lost to corruption, which could have been used for policies, programs and projects.

Increasing the number of school years is also our position. The 10-year program is compounded by the fact that we have ‘‘shifting.” What was once eight hours a day of classes is now down to four hours.

And then the students are hard-pressed. I asked education officials during the budget hearings in the Senate because it was said that science and health concepts were being discussed [in the same period]. Does that mean they tackle three subjects in one sitting?

“Do [students] have this book called ‘English for You and Me?’ ” I asked. “Yes,” they replied. “Do you do this every year?” I said. “No, every five years,” they said. “How come after five years, you still come up with a book that has 500 errors?” I asked. They never gave a good answer.

On teachers’ salaries, we have the Salary Standardization Law-3 which the chief executive has to implement. At the same time, for the entire bureaucracy, you want the concept of meritocracy to be the prevailing mode governing promotion and increases. Interview by Philip Tubeza

JC de los Reyes
Ang Kapatiran

IMPROVEMENT IN EDUCATION as well as in the delivery of other basic public services rests largely on eradicating graft in government. This way more funds can be made available to address the need for more classrooms, teachers, books, an increase in teachers salaries, and more state universities.

Theodore Roosevelt said: “To educate a man in mind and not in morals is to educate a menace to society.” Hence, the Ang Kapatiran shall:

Build a nation of character and promote the integral development and total well-being of all Filipinos through values formation.

Discourage the glorification of sex and violence, pornography, dishonesty, vice, materialism and hedonism, and replace them with structures of virtue, peace, responsibility and achievement.

Actively promote responsible parenthood and natural family planning.

Encourage media to foster values that contribute to the formation of a national commitment that is maka-Diyos, maka-buhay, maka-bayan at maka-tao.

Promote the culture of life, peace, active nonviolence and progressive disarmament.

Declare as contrary to public policy, morals and interest, good customs and the common good the glorification of the culture of death and violence.

Enhance investments in human resource development, especially by strengthening education in the sciences, mathematics, engineering and English. Interview by Jerome Aning

Joseph Estrada
Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino

CHILDREN STOP GOING TO school because of hunger. We have to ensure that there is enough food for our people.

Doesn’t the Department of Education have a feeding program? They give instant noodles to the children. But even the money for the noodles is stolen. It still boils down to food security and addressing corruption.

We will use the military’s engineering corps to help build classrooms, and give more freedom to women to plan their own family size.

Of course (I will raise the education budget). I gave the biggest per capita budget to education. You can check the records. During the first week of my administration, I raised the allowance of teachers.

I’m in favor of an additional year. The disparity between the rich and the poor continues to grow. The rich families are able to send their children to nursery, kindergarten. The children of the poor go directly to Grade 1. The children of the poor have no chance of competing. In San Juan (when I was mayor), I put up daycare centers that provided free preschool education to the children of the poor. Interview by Norman Bordadora

Richard Gordon
Bagumbayan

WE ARE GOING TO MAKE sure that our children will get the best in education. I want to attract better teachers by raising the monthly salary to P40,000. I want our children to get Kindle (a device that can store electronic versions of books and other references) in schools instead of error-ridden textbooks.

I will get the needed funds for these by imposing a 50-centavo tax on text. If we impose a tax on some 2 billion text messages sent every day, we can raise P365 billion in one year. That is the contribution of every Filipino, rich and poor, so that my maid’s son can have the same education as what my grandchildren have.

I will also subsidize the salaries of private schoolteachers as long as they show a good record. The fund will be administered by a health and education acceleration program. It is not really a tax but our contribution to education and health. If people discover that the text money goes to improve education, I’m sure they will text more.

I will use the P170 billion originally allocated to education (in the national budget) in improving classrooms and health. We will address the shortage of classrooms. This budget will also cover food in schools.

I agree to adding two years to basic education but not immediately because we will need more budget for that. But I’d like to do it within my first three years as President, especially if our tax on text will be successful.Interview by Edson C. Tandoc Jr.

Read more…

manny villar shows vulnerability – villar’s voter base an open path to victory for laggards

April 6, 2010 2 comments

in marketing, this is under the heading “source of business”. it is a mostly forgotten question by many brand managers but it is a very critical question.

in preparing a marketing plan specially for new brands to be launched in the market, that should be one of the first questions that need to be asked – where will this brand get market share from?

markets are never 100% virgin markets.  new products are launched into the market and they will seek to replace a product or service that is already existing. when you launch a brand, you need to ask yourself the question – what existing brand or service will my new brand replace.

it’s the same thing in elections. if your candidate is not in the top and you want to win the election, in drafting your winning strategy for the laggard, the question you need to ask is this – who among the presidentiables will you target for supporters?

based on the latest Pulse Asia poll (read: March 2010 Pulse Asia Poll: villar rating drops, aquino lead widens, no change among laggards – point of no return?), villar’s declining ratings seem to indicate his supporters are prime target for other presidentiables. villar’s voter base seem to be the more fluid among the top 3 contenders.

aquino’s base has not moved much at the current level, estrada has been relatively secure and in fact in other surveys seem to be moving upwards but villar has been on a constant move. it used to be moving constantly upward until the last survey dates when his ratings went down instead. for it to move downwards at this late stage in the campaign is a very serious matter.

getting  close to the ending of  the campaign period might not give him enough time to recover or re-convince those he already lost. the only thing going for him is that the number of “undecided”  increased.  but even the undecided are also prime target for the other presidentiables.

if the laggards are developing their win strategies now, the wisest thing to do is to target villar supporters. it is i think a newly opened  path to victory.  

~~~~~a mindscape landmark~~~~~
carlo arvisu

 

March 2010 Pulse Asia Poll: villar rating drops, aquino lead widens, no change among laggards – point of no return?

April 6, 2010 1 comment

villar’s rating in the latest pulse asia poll drops 4% points while aquino’s rating moves up by 1% point, giving aquino a wider lead, by + 7%. these results are highly consistent with the SWS poll (click here: march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays)

villar’s weakening position here confirms the red warning flag we raised on villar (read here: march 2010 SWS poll results – a big red flag is up for manny villar). there is a fundamental weakness that has emerged in villar’s campaign and it is showing now that may show itself smartly in the next poll if not addressed.

the widening lead being enjoyed by aquino, however, is not enough reason for celebration for aquino. the lead is not due to aquino strengthening but rather villar weakening. it may indicate that aquino has a large base of fiercely loyal supporters or that his opponents has not yet discovered aquino’s weakness. however, the poll results seem indicate villar’s supporters are vulnerable.

that is good news for erap estrada who is following villar at 3rd. in fact that is good news for everyone else, specially those at the laggards group.

we think we have reached a point of no return here. unless major developments or major screw ups occur, the standings are most likely going to hold until election time. with just a few weeks before election, there is simply not enough time to do anything else.

manny villar jumps to 2nd as the presidentiable who must not win the election poll

April 2, 2010 3 comments

this is a poll where respondents are asked to nominate the presidentiables who they think must NOT win the 2010 election.

latest results puts estrada on top, followed by villar then aquino, the top 3 presidentiables in the SWS and Pulse Asia polls. it is interesting that villar in recent weeks got a surge of votes in this poll.

vote and the poll and read the results here–> manny villar jumps to 2nd in presidentiables poll who must not win in the 2010 presidential election

2010 election: aquino landslide win, teodoro hail mary pass, villar collapse and estrada to win the election?

April 1, 2010 5 comments

the villarroyo development puts many new things into the table now. there used to be only 1 item on the table – a close election between villar and aquino and estrada as the dark horse.

with the new developments on the arroyo’s secret candidate in villar on top of the teodoro being their candidate, we now see new things on the table:

  • villar collapse – we have seen what arroyo’s kiss of death did to gilbert teodoro – super glued to fourth place from survey to survey, unable to get up to even a double digit rating in the polls. if the villarroyo charge sticks, we can see a transfer of arroyo’s kiss of death on villar. that is IF the kiss of death is transferable to others.
  • teodoro on a hail mary pass – we are totally confounded by teodoro. he did not see any of this coming? now he is left out in the open all by himself. in this whole thing, teodoro is the most abused by his mentors. teodoro decided to leave NPC to join lakas-kampi-cmd to fulfil his presidential ambitions. his party did not welcome him with open arms. they didn’t want him to be their standard bearer. from the very beginning they were vocal on that. this rejection by his own party was also shown in the fact that none of the big time lakas candidates wanted to be his vice presidential mate.  fast forward to a few weeks ago we hear his campaign complaining on lack of funding from the party. a few days ago he quits as chair of his party apparently because he got to know that arroyo supports villar. all of these, teodoro did not see coming? really? well, he will now be pushed to most probably do a hail mary pass – completely remove himself from the grip of the arroyos and start attacking the them. that we think can get him back into the election.
  • estrada a clear possibility –  these developments is good news for estrada. recent SWS poll show estrada gained from villar when villar got hit by the C-5 corruption issue. a collapse by villar can mean, if the recent developments in the polls continue to hold, estrada gaining in the polls which can make him a true contender in this election. however, there is so much irony here — villar collapsing on a corruption issue for erap to gain who is a  convicted criminal of a crime of plunder, a corruption verdict of the highest order for public officials.
  • aquino poised for a landslide win – only aquino gets the good news on this one. aquino has been on a single minded positioning of anti-corruption. by sheer luck, the recent developments gives the election to aquino on a silver platter, setting him up for a possible landslide win in the election.  with his closest rival, villar to be enshrined with being supported by the mother of all corruption, the arroyos, this leaves aquino untainted, clean and without blemish. it can be a wake up call for voters, specially for villar supporters.

if there is anything to be learned in this whole episode, it is this – it’s a fluid election. unfortunately and i say this with a tinge of shame and embarrassment  the election being fluid is not being caused by a debate of changing national issues but by the stuff of telenovela twists and turns. very pinoy. hay naku….

march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays

March 29, 2010 6 comments

this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.

aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but  he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.

villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past.  villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air.  villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.

estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.

the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.

presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline.  doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return  for them.

Aquino opens up lead versus Villar

LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.

Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.

Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.

Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.

Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.

There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).

source: http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=8479

presidentiables stand on cha-cha and arroyo as speaker

March 28, 2010 6 comments

we are publishing here full article from PDI’s Talk Of The Town to get to know the presidentiables’ stand on issues. (source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/talkofthetown/view/20100327-261174/Stand-on-Charter-change-Arroyo-as-Speaker)

MANILA, Philippines—Every president after the Aquino administration supported moves to amend the 1987 Constitution. Fidel Ramos tried it through Pirma, a signature campaign that sought to lift term limits; Joseph Estrada through Concord (Constitutional Correction for Development) that pushed for allowing foreigners to own land; and President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo via a signature campaign and later through a constituent assembly that called for a shift to a parliamentary form of government.

Will the next President also push for Charter change (Cha-cha)?

Know their stand from their answers to the following questions:

Are there provisions in the 1987 Constitution that need to be amended? If yes, what are these? Why?

Are you in favor of a shift to a parliamentary form of government? If yes, what mode (constitutional convention, constituent assembly or people’s initiative aka signature campaign)? When do you think the country should adopt a parliamentary government? Why a parliamentary system?

Would you support President Macapagal-Arroyo should she seek the speakership in the House of Representatives? Why? [Ms Arroyo is running for representative in her home province, Pampanga.]

 

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal Party

The need for amendments to the Constitution, and whether there’s a public clamor have yet to be determined. I will support the creation of a body to determine these. If the Constitution must be amended, it should be through a constitutional convention.

The current administration more than anything else has shown us that the 1987 Constitution has loopholes that could be abused in order to stay in power. I am in favor of tightening the Constitution against these abuses at the start of the presidential term to avoid suspicion of foul play.

Nobody has presented yet an argument that makes a parliamentary shift urgent which shows that the country is really at risk with the present form of government that you have to change it.

No (I will not support President Macapagal-Arroyo should she seek the speakership in the House of Representatives.).

Having Ms Arroyo as the Speaker would make it hard for us to find closure to all of the anomalies of her administration. The Liberal Party and our allies in the House will oppose her plans. Submitted by Aquino’s staff

 

Joseph Estrada
Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino

Didn’t I start that with Concord? The provision on the ownership of land except agricultural land. I will let foreigners own land. The only ones benefiting from the current provision are big-time realtors like the Ayalas. They buy several hundreds of thousands of hectares and speculate. In the meantime the property remains idle.

If we allow foreigners to come in, there will be competition. If foreigners are allowed to buy land, they will develop it. Jobs will be generated. At the same time, we will collect taxes on idle lands.

No (I’m not in favor of a parliamentary form of government.). This is the only time that the marginalized people or the masa can have that equality with the elites to elect a President.

Under the parliamentary set-up, the masa will not be able to elect the President they want. It will be their representatives.

I am amenable to a parliamentary form with a strong President, who will be elected (by the voters).

If I have my way, I prefer a constitutional commission. I’ll let all sectors—the farmers, workers—choose the best five among them. Thirty percent will come from the academe—the retired deans of UP, Ateneo.

A constitutional convention would be very expensive. Besides, the politicians would again come in. The politicians would again win there.

(GMA as Speaker) is so demeaning to the Office of the President. In the first place, she should not run for any office. She has become the President for nine years, longer than the six-year term under the Constitution. That’s more than enough.

She will have undue advantage. That’s why the incumbent President is prohibited from running for reelection. She will have undue advantage over any opponent because of government resources at her command. It’s the same thing she did to FPJ. She used Pagcor, the PCSO, public works, road users’ tax, agriculture, fertilizer funds. She used the police. She used the military. Interview by Norman Bordadora

 

Richard Gordon
Bagumbayan

There is a lot to amend in our Constitution. First, do we want a presidential or parliamentary form of government?

If it’s parliamentary, then we should have a multi-party system. If it’s presidential, we should have a two-party system. But I think the parliamentary system is not suited to us.

Look at how we quickly change our minds on our Presidents and how quickly our congressmen change loyalties. We should consider the parliamentary system once we have developed a true party system.

Second, I want the bill of duties and obligations for citizens to be amended. When I take over the government, I will set the tone. The people have rights but they also have duties.

Third is in terms of land use. I will open up foreign investments in land but they should not own mineral, forest or agricultural lands. They can go on joint ventures. And if they get commercial or residential lots, they cannot sit on it for three years. They have to utilize it.

Fourth, I would open up media for foreign participation so we will really have a competitive media and better paid journalists to remove the AC-DC (attack-collect and defend-collect) culture. We don’t really have a free press. Whoever has the money plays the tune. Maybe not all the media, but certainly we all notice this.

Fifth, I would remove the constrictions on bases or bringing in foreign troops to our country. Why are we voluntarily restricting ourselves from calling on an ally to help us? Do we still have to amend the Constitution if we are invaded or if we have a problem?

Sixth, I will also remove term limits except for the President. I would like local government leaders to have six-year terms. The voters should be the one to decide the term limits.

If she (GMA) is elected member of the House Representatives, she can be a Speaker. I would not necessarily support her. I would look for a better alternative. I don’t even favor her running for Congress.

But how will I deal with a House with GMA as Speaker? The President has plenty of powers. The Speaker is always subject to the President’s favor. Interview by Edson C. Tandoc Jr.

 

Manuel Villar
Nacionalista Party

I personally believe that a review might be warranted since the Constitution was made when the Philippines, the world and the circumstances were different. However, I leave it up to our people.

If elected, I will consider calls for Charter change but that will not be a priority. The tools are available to improve institutions to spur economic and political development. The next President must first get the trust and confidence of the people by acting immediately to address the more pressing needs such as jobs and opportunities, food, shelter and security. Whether or not there will be a clamor to change the Constitution, it should not be a cause to divide the nation.

The economic provisions should be reviewed to ensure that citizens will benefit in the form of long-term opportunities and to make the country competitive for foreign investment.

(On the shift to a parliamentary form of government), I have no preference one way or another because I see our country’s problem as more a lack of leadership.

No (I won’t support GMA should she seek the speakership.) She is not my party mate and I will support a Nacionalista Party candidate for Speaker to ensure that the party’s objective of poverty alleviation can be carried out legislatively. Submitted by Villar’s staff

  Read more…

gilbert teodoro set to do last minute push for a win, here is why it will fail

March 23, 2010 Leave a comment

gilbert teodoro, the standard bearer of the admin/(supposed) dominant political party LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD know that he is losing this election campaign. he has not moved up in any significant way in the polls, being stuck at a very far fourth in the rankings and getting at best 7% while the front runners are at a staggering 36% for aquino and 34% for villar. it is bad enough that the two front runners are way ahead of everybody, on top of teodoro is estrada who is in the range of 15% , showing strength at that level and even gaining slightly.

the question that teodoro’s campaign needs to answer is this – for him to win, where will he get the votes from? the weakest of the three front runners, erap estrada is not exactly weak. among the presidentiables, estrada is the candidate that has the most experience and time as an elected government official not to mention he was actually elected president once before. teodoro compared to erap looks puny.  if teodoro can’t get pat estrada, how does he expect to get past villar and aquino, the two most popular presidentiables in this campaign?

it is interesting that an article appeared at the PDI yesterday where the teodoro campaign seem to be preparing for what the writer calls a “battle of the bulge” – a last minute, well last few weeks campaign to get teodoro elected. in marketing, it is called a marketing blitz. in a political campaign it’s most likely called a “failed election bid”.

we will be using that article as a pick up point for this post.

The ruling coalition, which enjoys a headlock on 70 percent of local government positions, is pinning its hopes on superior resources and widespread party machinery to swing the tide of battle.

Banking on these advantages, it plans to assert its superiority with carefully synchronized offensives timed at the start of the campaign for local positions on March 26.

this is what party officials call the “political machinery”. it’s supposed to be potent that only the admin/ruling party has a monopoly on. all the party officials, including teodoro are saying that is what will make him win this election. they conveniently forget that in the last senatorial elections, they said the same thing about the potency of THE machinery. the results – almost all the admin/ruling party senatorial best lost in that election while almost all the opposition senatorial bets won the election.

the results of that election was so bad for the admin/ruling party that pichay who spent the most in advertising during that time did not get elected while trillanes who was in jail, unable to campaign and practically had zero advertising money won the election.

the opposition won that election mainly on the basis of the people exercising a protest vote where they elected the opponents of arroyo’s candidates. arroyo at that time was very unpopular and the people have had enough of her so much so that they even said they do not want her candidates to win.

after the election, LAKAS party officials admitted the machinery did not deliver. apparently the local candidates and officials of LAKAS abandoned the admin senatorial candidates when they felt the people were going against them.

the situation then compared to now is about the same – arroyo is unpopular and in fact probably even more unpopular than before. everyone knows teodoro is arroyo’s candidate and based on surveys, voters said they will not elect the candidate that arroyo is endorsing.

we think it’s foolish to rely on the “machinery” to get teodoro elected. the machinery is a myth.

The opening salvo of this make-or-break offensive will be new TV commercials targeting the youth on Monday.

Teodoro’s spokesperson, former Press Secretary Mike Toledo, said the commercials would be aired with frequencies rivaling those of the front-runners, Senators Benigno S. Aquino III of the Liberal Party and Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party. Between them, they have spent close to P2 billion, dominating the airwaves, according to the media firm AGB Nielsen.

Teodoro’s ads will zero in on the target segment that the coalition hopes will swing the tide of battle to his side, the youth ranging in age from 18 to 39, who constitute 52 percent of the 50 million voters registered, according to Toledo.

Teodoro has been doing well in mock elections in schools recently. Campaign strategists have selected this key segment to focus on, Toledo says.

political campaigns seem to have a love affair with the youth vote. all of them seem to think that is the key to their success. villar, aquino and villanueva aired tv  ads targeting them. but if you look at the movements of villar’s ratings, it is not the ad that targeted the youth that earned him a lot of points, it’s the other ads that he aired.

aquino with his rap tv ad meant for the youth got mixed  reviews with people liking it and others throwing up hearing aquino do a rap in the tv ad. they abruptly pulled off that ad. villanueva aired one too but that did not help him either.

teodoro did not seem to learn the lessons the other presidentiables learned – they will air an ad targeting the “youth” on monday.  we now think this obsession with youth ad is probably the fault of the admen hired by the campaigns for their ad needs. all of them seem to be saying the same mantra.

maybe teodoro will find the secret weapon in ads for the youth and can get him to win the election. it is good in theory, forgetting for the moment the failures of the other presidentiables, but we think teodoro’s thinking is fatally  flawed.

the critical failure in the ad that will be aired on monday for the youth is the demographics definition – “age from 18 to 39“. the age range is too wide and probably covers at least two distinct groups or even three. the psyche, needs and  attitudes of the 18 year old, a first time voter is very different from a 25 year old who probably has a young family already to someone who is 30 years old who has a not so young family. for sure a 37 to 39 year old is extremely different from an 18 year old, to a 23 year old and a 30 year old.

it is hard for us to understand and we think it is not possible to have an ad meant for the “youth” that will be effective in convincing this wide and un-alike age grouping of 18 to 35 years old.

the admen who sold the idea to the teodoro campaign spoke badly in thinking that an age range as wide as that is a proper segmentation of the target audience. we do not think you will find any adman who will agree to that kind of segmentation.

target audience definition is the very first critical step in developing an effective tv ad. get the definition wrong, or even weak and the ad fails. it will confuse the creative team as it gives them too wide a range with very dissimilar traits and characteristics.

we await this new ad of teodoro. it is supposed to be a miracle tv ad for him. given the potential flaw of the thinking, it will either be a miracle ad or a miracle dud.  we will probably see a WAWAM! on monday.

read PDI article here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100322-260115/Lakas-Kampi-coalition-plans-decisive-Battle-of-the-Bulge

~~~mindscape landmark~~~
carlo arvisu

presidentiables stand on appointment of next supreme court chief justice and SC ruling

March 19, 2010 1 comment

we are publishing here the stand of the presidentiables on the issue of the appointment of the next SC chief justice and the recent ruling of the SC that allows arroyo to appoint the next CJ.

Gilbert Teodoro

Even administration standard-bearer Gilbert Teodoro thinks President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should let her successor name the new chief justice to avoid undermining the Supreme Court’s credibility.

“If I were in her position, I would not make the appointment given the controversy surrounding the issue,” he said Friday when asked if Arroyo should let the new President appoint the successor of Chief Justice Reynato Puno, who retires May 17.

“It’s a prudential issue,” he added.

“I think despite the ruling given, prudence is in the order of the day because we’re talking about the credibility of the institution which is the Supreme Court. I will not even bother to give advice but prudence is the necessary thing,” he told reporters after a forum at the Our Lady of Fatima University campus in Valenzuela City.

“It is more prudent for the President to leave the appointment to the next President. Otherwise, it will politicize the Supreme Court. We should not politicize the Supreme Court because it is the remaining bastion of our democracy,” he said in a separate interview at the Fatima University.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/regions/view/20100319-259656/Naming-new-chief-justice-should-be-left-to-next-president—Teodoro

Noynoy Aquino

The next Chief Justice could be impeached by the next Congress if it would be proven that the appointment was illegal, Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III said on Friday.

“If it can be proven the decision was not done based on sound legal principles, that might be a ground for impeaching an impeachable officer,” Aquino said in an interview here with reporters.

“Kailangan diyan tinanggap niya [Chief Justice] through someone who is not authorized. Unfortunately, sa ngayon ang lumalabas authorized siya unless the SC reverses itself [It should be that he accepted the position through someone who is not authorized. Unfortunately, for now it appears that she’s authorized unless the SC reverses itself],” he said.

The senator was referring to the Supreme Court’s decision, allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the new Chief Justice despite the 60-day prohibition against any appointment by the President before the elections.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100319-259657/Next-Chief-Justice-faces-impeachmentAquino

Erap Estrada

Joseph Estrada said on Friday he’s willing to take his oath before any chief justice, even one appointed by President Macapagal-Arroyo, during a period that many believe is covered by a ban on presidential “midnight appointments.”

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100319-259662/Estrada-says-hed-take-oath-from-any-chief-justice

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