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Pulse Asia April 2010 Presidentiables Poll : estrada ties villar at 2nd, aquino widens lead

April 29, 2010 Leave a comment

The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following: (1) defections from the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the Liberal Party (LP); (2) election-related issues such as the purchase of ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding of the contract for the purchase of indelible ink; (3) completion of the printing of ballots for the May 2010 elections; (4) various incidents of election-related violence across the country; (5) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president; (6) accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in 2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares; (7) Senator Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups; (8) petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes; (9) the Supreme Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice); (10) calls for the resignation and disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following his decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and (11) increase in power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.

http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=716

SWS-Business World poll: jejomar binay’s phenomenal rise to 2nd makes him a contender in VP race

April 26, 2010 1 comment

looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.

the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.

that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time.  unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.

the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.

we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.

SWS-Business World april poll : aquino holds lead, villar drops. villar’s down trend to continue.

April 26, 2010 Leave a comment

source: http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=9817

this poll was conducted middle of april, about 4 weeks from election time and it shows aquino’s lead continue to be strong at 38% while villar shows downward trend at 26%.  aquino having a strong double digit lead  and villar showing a declining trend is good news for aquino and very bad news for villar.

we are reading the poll results with just 2 weeks to go till election time. with nothing new and no remarkable or outstanding efforts done by villar since survey time till today, a 2 week lapse,  it is difficult to expect that villar’s down trending trend has been arrested or reversed. in marketing, the way to arrest and reverse a declining  sales and market share trend is to some new and heavy marketing efforts. not doing anything new and heavy means the trend will continue. this should be true for villar.

in fact, the past two weeks has not been good for villar. erap estrada and juan ponce enrile exploded a new scandal – the VLL and PSE scandal where both charged villar used his influence and power on the PSE to allow him to sell his shares on the IPO of VLL which was supposed on escrow. rules of the PSE disallowed the release of shares for sale by owners to protect investors.

we have said in this blog that villar is getting hurt by the C-5 corruption scandal since early this year, then it got solidified as a dead weight with the villarroyo charge. this VLL-PSE scandal has the potential to confirm in the minds of voters of villar’s weakness in character where he tends to use his power and position for personal gain. the gain in this particular instance is worth billions of profits in the sale of his VLL stocks.

with the VLL-PSE scandal breaking out in the last two weeks and with no to little new and heavy efforts done by villar, we can expect further deterioration of villar’s ratings.

we are now at the point of no return. the only way the trends will change is doing a hail mary pass. who has the guts or who is most desperate to do it?

teodoro, gordon and villanueva supporters – don’t waste your vote, vote for any of the 2 front runners

April 25, 2010 143 comments

on request, we are posting here this article written by sweet.twins in one of the pinoy bulletin boards.

~antenna1

for the teodoro, villanueva, gordon, madrigal, de los reyes and perlas supporters – do not waste your vote by voting for the candidate you support, vote instead any of the two front runners who you think is better for the country – villar or aquino.

by this time the fact is these presidentiables – teodoro, villanueva, gordon, madrigal, de los reyes and perlas do not have a chance to win the election. if you vote for any of them, villar or aquino will win without you having a say on who will be president.

why waste your vote? your vote can make a difference between villar and aquino. it will probably be a very close election for both of them. since it will be close, a single vote will matter a lot.

you have a chance to elect the president of the country, use it to elect who between aquino and villar you think is best for the country.

based on the latest polls, aquino will get 18 million votes, villar 17 million, teodoro 3 million, villanueva 1.5 million and gordon 1 million votes.

only 1 million will separate villar and aquino. let’s assume just 1/3 of teodoro supporters abandon teodoro and vote for either villar or aquino, then these teodoro supporters would have elected the president.

its possible the gap between villar and aquino will be smaller and that means supporters of teodoro can really make a difference.

on the other hand 1 more vote for teodoro, or this time 3,000,001 votes will NOT make teodoro win.

assuming 50 million voters, this is how the latest SWS poll might translate to votes:
  • aquino 18 million
  • villar 17 million
  • estrada 7.5 million
  • teodoro 3 million
  • villanueva 1.5 million
  • gordon 1 million
even if all the supporters of estrada, teodoro, villanueva and gordon vote for any of them, that will only be 5.5 million votes, that is NOT going to make any of them win. however, if these 5.5 million or even 1/3 of them vote for either villar or aquino, they choose the winner!
all the presidentiables, both the front runner AND laggards groups are talking about the same thing – the economy. jobs. education, poverty alleviation and health care. both are talking about fixing these in our country.

we know the laggards groups will not win this election. make your vote count by selecting one of the two front runners who you think will be able to deliver better on the economy, jobs, education, poverty alleviation and health care.

you may want the country’s economy, jobs, education, poverty alleviation and health care to improve but voting a presidentiable who obviously will not win will not do that. so elect one of the front runners who you think can do vest in fixing those.

the laggards groups are not talking of anything different. in fact the laggards group even have a very strong disadvantage of not having a a large political party to back them up. even teodoro’s political party is now being reduced to nothing. it will be much more difficult to be effective if a presidentiable without a strong political party is elected. basing it on this one, the real choice is really down to aquino or villar, the front runners.

that is how few these voters are and how futile their votes will be if they continue to vote for these candidates.

the manny villar formula : C5 scandal + VLL PSE scandal = Villarroyo

April 24, 2010 1 comment

C5 scandal + VLL PSE scandal = Villarroyo

did we just witness manny villar’s losing formula? villar’s poll ratings started to take a dive at the height of the C-5 controversy at the senate when he avoided confronting his colleagues at the senate to avoid talking about it ang being questioned on it. it was a simple formula – talk to the press but do not attend senate hearings.

the slide continued when mar roxas in a press conference coined the word Villarroyo. although the point of the name villarroyo was not exactly the same as the C-5, it’s point being villar is the secret candidate of gloria macapagal arroyo, it reminded people just the same about corruption which was C-5 was all about at its core.

arroyo is seen by many as   the mother of all corruption in this country, she scored highest after marcos on corruption in surveys. having villarroyo as a name reminded people about the same kind of corruption that people associated with arroyo and did not like.

it is the same fear that people have in not voting for teodoro. teodoro is seen by voters as too close to arroyo so much that just the association gives teodoro the same kind of corruption image. the VLL PSE scandal is about the same thing.

villar does not deny he talked to the PSE (philippine stock exchange) officials about the locked-up shares of VLL after the IPO. he said he talked to them only to get news from them on the status of the listing of VLL at the stock market. so it was just a business call or a follow-up call.

he however forgot that he is the senate president and no ordinary person and even a no ordinary CEO of a philippine corporation. in fact, why would he do such a business call when he is supposed to be no longer connected with the private company VLL? elected officials are prohibited by law to hold corporate positions in private companies when they get elected. this by itself shows impropriety.

villar in his statement also says there was no violation of PSE rules as the locked-up shares he held as they were not released, it was disapproved by the PSE. that means he did ask the permission PSE to release the locked-up shares. it means villar has asked the PSE to violate it’s own rules. that is another impropriety.

saying the government did not lose money in the whole thing and it actually gained in taxes is not the point nor does it change the fact that he committed improprieties in the whole affair.

neither is anything diminished nor made right in throwing the trash at erap estrada who also had his own misdealings with the stock market before when he was president. the charge on estrada then was price fixing on BW Resources shares, a scandal that almost led to the implosion of the philippine sotck market.  we do not condone what Estrada did but the proper conclusion here is that villar is just like estrada who both used their power to gain at the philippine stock market.

the C5 scandal and the VLL PSE scandal shows a clear similarity – villar seem to be in the habit of using his power and stature as public official to influence government and other related agencies for his personal gain, specifically for the businesses he and/or his family owns.

the name villarroyo rings a bell.

erap estrada attacks Vulnerable Villar for the election win

April 23, 2010 3 comments

 we have written before in this blog , telling all the laggards in this election that the path to winning this election specifically for them is though Vulnerable Villar’s  voter base whose loyalty to  Vulnerable Villar has been weakened by the C-5 and Villarroyo controversies.erap estrada with the help of  juan ponce enrile, the self-appointed nemesis of manny villar launched a brilliant attack against Vulnerable Villar for the election win.

of all the presidentiables, only villar’s ratings have shown movement one way or the other. and of late, villar’s voter base showed fluidity on the downward trend. movements like these show vulnerability to poaching by other presidentiables.

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read to click here:

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the estrada/enrile attack is a brilliant move:

  • it recognizes and exploits the weakness of Vulnerable Villar
  • it is consistent withe the topic where Vulnerable Villar is most vulnerable to – the charge of using his influence and corruption, the same kind of topic on the C-5 corruption controversy
  • this plays up and continues to make use of  the  Villarroyo weakness of Vulnerable Villar
  • we had written before in this blog that the C-5 controversy and Villarroyo is hurting Vulnerable Villar and the trend of his ratings are showing huge red flags
  • the timing of the attack is brilliant – just a few weeks to go till election time. there might not be enough time  for villar to parry the attack and recover from it.

the move may be brilliant but the there is gigantic hole in this move  and that is erap estrada himself.

erap estrada is the only one among all the presidentiables who is a convicted criminal, all the other presidentiables have not committed a crime. the crime estrada was convicted on is about the same topic, too – corruption, plunder specifically according to the laws of the country. 

more than that, erap estrada was also involved in making hay in the stock market during his presidency. one of the primary topics during the plunder case for erap was this stock called BW Resources which many billed as the country’s biggest stock market scam or scandal. that one involved price fixing.

enrile may have done the expose on his own as a big disfavor to manny villar but if he did that on his own, the voters may swing away from villar to noynoy aquino.  estrada needed to be in the picture as that is the point of the whole exercise.

the question they needed to answer and i am sure it is one that was unanswered as they concluded the meeting was it was worth a try. estrada is a far 3rd in the polls. he needed an immediate and humongous boost to get him close to the fight.

his way towards reaching aquino is by stepping on manny villar, the 2nd placer who is showing an erosion of voter base in the polls. they must have figured that they do not need to bother with aquino, all they need  is to get the supporters of Vulnerable Villar which in truth will be more than enough for erap to overtake aquino and win this election.

will voters abandon Vulnerable Villar and vote erap estrada instead? or will Vulnerable Villar’s supporters move over to aquino instead?

corruption is the number 1 issue in this election. it has become a lightning rod and a shepherd’s call. aquino used it to good effect and sustained a leading voter base; it was a pied piper call that led supporters to abandon Vulnerable Villar, will it be one for the benefit of erap estrada, the convicted criminal on the crime of corruption?

we do not think so.

voters will not move from one form of corruption to another form of corruption. voters will move to white space and that is noynoy aquino.

we think this development, if estrada and enrile succeeds in making the VLL corruption stick on Vulnerable Villar will benefit noynoy aquino the most.  the whole thing will reinforce even further, stronger and deeper, the aquino image of a clean and honest presidentiable. aquino will come out as unblemished while all others are either blackened, garbage plagued and invisible. the invisibles are gordon, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes. teodoro joins villar and estrada with teodoro dumped with gloria macapagal arroyo’s kiss of death, the mother of all corruption in the country.  

one more episode in the telenovela twists and turns of this election.

Villar: Trouble with hellos

NP bet used influence to twist stock market rules

By Gerry Lirio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:40:00 04/23/2010

(First of two parts)

MANILA, Philippines—Hello Fe! Hello Francis!

Sen. Manny Villar called Fe Barin, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Francis Lim, then president of the Philippine Stock Exchange, many times sometime between May and June 2007, the Philippine Daily Inquirer has learned.

But the calls, according to SEC and PSE lawyers and brokers interviewed by the Inquirer on separate occasions, were “too many to be easily dismissed and forgotten.”

They couldn’t forget about the calls either, they said, most especially because Villar, then Senate President, wanted the SEC and PSE officials “to throw the exchange rules out the window.”

Villar was seeking the release from escrow of about 1.2 billion of the 5.3 billion secondary shares of Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc. in June 2007 so these could be offered both as primary and secondary shares at the same time, or several days apart.

The Senate President not only made the calls, he also appeared before SEC and PSE board meetings, the lawyers said.

Villar and his wife Cynthia, the Las Piñas representative, are majority stockholders of Vista Land, the couple’s flagship company.

The couple became P6.75 billion richer from the secondary offering of 985.9 million shares that began on July 26, 2007, or within the escrow period of 180 days from the date of initial offering.

Lawyers said this violated article III, part D, section 7, of the exchange’s revised listing rules, which provides for a 180-day lockup on the secondary shares.

Vista Land, formed only in February 2007 to oversee operations of decades-old real estate brands Camella, a listed firm, Crown Asia and Brittany, made P14.5 billion from the sale of 2.12 billion primary shares.

Despite a weak showing in early trade, share prices soared to more than the offer price of P6.90, or up to as much as P7.50 per share. Share prices subsequently took a dive and hardly recovered since the secondary offering.

Simply put, Villar wanted the secondary offering held at once, despite the 180-day lock-up rule. He wanted to seize the day while the market was bullish. And he got it.

180-day lock-up rule

The rule, according to a PSE document obtained by the Inquirer, requires a company to cause its shareholders owning at least 10 percent of its issued and outstanding capital to enter into an agreement not to sell, assign, or in any manner dispose of their shares within the 180-day period from the listing of the shares.

The 180-day rule effectively puts the secondary shares in escrow mainly to allow the public buying into the primary shares to have their due course, stabilize the market share of prices, and to prevent the majority stockholders from abandoning the company which could take place during a secondary offering.

“It is an assurance that the majority stockholders are not selling just because they want to abandon ship and that they want to first jump from it,” an SEC lawyer said.

It also allows the SEC to check a company’s tangible assets of any legal encumbrances and, if so, if it is worth stopping the public offering.

How Villar managed to get his wish shocked some SEC and PSE lawyers and stockbrokers. Five of them talked to the Inquirer separately at the height of the controversy surrounding an ethical complaint lodged by Sen. Jamby Madrigal against the billionaire-senator last year in connection with the multibillion C-5 road diversion controversy.

Lobbying for private business

The trouble with Villar’s phone calls, the lawyers said, was that these were “unethical and inappropriate” because he was a high-ranking government official personally lobbying for his private business interest. “These exerted so much pressure on the PSE board,” a lawyer added.

Read more…

presidentiables change tv ad executions to save their campaigns

April 22, 2010 1 comment

Cover of April 2010 issue of Entrepreneur Philippines (left) where this blog was quoted; title page of article on the right

quotes from this blog on the advertising ran by the presidentiables were published in the april 2010 issue of Entrepreneur Philippines Magazine (cover photos, above). we like to run some parallel points to those quoted in the magazine.

the heaviest spenders, aquino and villar have been churning out new executions in a fast clip. that is the way to go – they need to put on air the ad most relevant to voters. politics and national issues change very rapidly. most national issues take at most has a lifespan of 3 days. there are very few instances when issues take weeks on the front page and headlines.

first, it’s not easy to come up with new ads frequently specially for political campaigns. the second biggest problem is scheduling. the presidentiables are constantly on the move, travelling to the provinces for sorties, in some instances at least 4 different locations in a day. getting them in manila for a tv shot is very difficult. you can of course shoot the commercial where the presidentiable is but that will be very costly for them.

the biggest problem is getting the ad or the storyboard done by the ad agency. not many ad agencies have the ability and the smarts to churn out tv ads in a huff. the challenge is very daunting and huge – you need to read the the issues properly, read the pysche of the voters , then you write the strategy after which you write the storyboard.  the first leg is the most difficult.

while we recognize the campaigns are doing well in airing new tv spots, we are not necessarily saying they are airing the right ads.  we all be talking about those next here at the 2010 Presidentiables Blog.

page 65 of the Entrepreneur Philippines Magazine

 the noynoy aquino ad campaign has very recently taken a different strategy.it is now on a bandwagon, winner’s approach claiming back the “people’s campaign” platform he started with. this ad portrays aquino, not directly said but obvious as the eventual winner.

this is a high risk approach. it is too much of a soft ad that we think is inappropriate at this time when election time is still weeks away, the issues raised against aquino have not been answered and his closes rival, manny villar is not about to give up anytime soon.  more on the villar ad campaign in a later post.

(click to read: manny villar and loren legarda airs negative ad – attack tv ad against noynoy aquino)

erap estrada has also since revised his advertising strategies. interestingly enough, estrada has dropped his “nostalgia campaign”. that is a smart move. estrada now talks about national issues and performance. it’s good that estrada changed his ad campaign, but we think he was not wise in choosing the issues he talks about as they are on the fringe of the voter mind.

there is however something very irritating about his ads – he appears to be too much in showbiz rather than presidential which among all the presidentiables, only he can actually claim being once a president of the country. once in showbiz, always in showbiz?

read the articles of the source of the quotes.

click to read article : noynoy aquino to lose the election due to advertising blunders

click to read article: presidentiables ad themes: villar-poverty, aquino-corruption, estrada-nostalgia and teodoro-ego trip

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