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the attack ad memes that the Mar Roxas campaign needs – since yesterday

March 26, 2016 Leave a comment

sometime mid March, we posted a chart over twitter for the Mar Roxas campaign. at that point there were many data points that were showing the Roxas campaign was not going anywhere. Roxas’ ratings in the polls were not going up.

in many of Mar Roxas supporters’ minds was the question – can Mar Roxas till win the election? and other questions like – what can Roxas still do to win? is it too late for him?

those questions were being asked of me over at twitter since i had taken the view that the Mar Roxas campaign was failing. having a weak campaign was a view i took since November 2o15 when i started tweeting about it. that POV was based just on an analysis of the Mar Roxas ad campaign and the resulting brand positioning that Roxas has taken. it was anchored the ad campaign and brand poisoning of “Daang Matuwid” which is the main weakness.

at that time in November there were still a few quantitative data points to support my analysis and point of view. but that changed by  February 2016 when there were already an avalanche of data points that showed the Roxas campaign was failing –  poll results showed he was stuck at 4th place in a field of 5 candidates and his ratings were not moving at all, it was flat within the 18% to 20% range.

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this will deal with number 3 on the above – “air attack ads vs Binay, Poe and Duterte”. they are Mar Roxas’ opponents who occupy the first 3 positions ahead of  his 4th ranking.

at this point, Mar Roxas’ campaign objective need to be : add  supporters by gaining from and converting supporters of his opponents to his side.

he is 4th and at best has 20% in the polls. those will not win the election for him. he will obviously need to go up to 1st with at least a 35% rating. that means he needs to take 15% points from his competitors. he needs to convert that many supporters of his opponents to his side,

one of the most effective ways to do that is to air attack ads against his opponents. attack ads are ads that question the credibility, put in doubt the abilities and correct the wrongs said or done by Roxas’ opponents. the target audience are the supporters of his opponents and the goal is to convince them that they are supporting the wrong candidate and instead shift their support for Roxas.

today, we saw over at twitter memes on Grace Poe based on her performance during the last second presidential debate. these are “fact check” memes – these memes are correcting the wrong things that Poe said during the debate. these to us is a form of attack ads.

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there were many more “fact check” violations committed by Grace Poe during the debate. and even much more committed by the other candidates, Rody Duterte and Jejomar Binay.

over at Twitter, i suggested to the mar Roxas campaign and Mar Roxas supporters to do more fact check memes on Poe and specially the other opponents of Roxas.

memes are cheap to make but we think if done well and in good numbers, it can be effective specially if traditional media picks them up.

attack ads are what Mar Roxas needs. they are not a WAWAM!

 

 

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ads of Mar Roxas’ competitors that worked for them, hurt Roxas

February 11, 2016 Leave a comment

Part 2.

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the presidentiables on the Economy and Jobs

February 10, 2016 Leave a comment

PDI is running an interesting series of articles on the presidentiables. we ae providing a link here and excerpts.

source : Agenda of the next president: Economy and jobs 

Agenda of the next president: Economy and jobs

Starting Feb. 9, 2016, the Inquirer is coming out with a 10-part series on pressing national concerns that should be high on the agenda of the five contenders in the May 9 presidential election. The series should help Filipinos choose wisely the country’s next leader.

In line with the Inquirer’s “ThINQ.Vote.” advocacy, we have asked the presidential candidates to outline their concrete plans of action in dealing with 10 decades-long issues on poverty, economy and jobs, food security, peace and order, corruption, health care, foreign policy, traffic, climate change and Internet connectivity.

Under the Aquino administration, the economy has grown by an average of 6.2 percent–the fastest since the late ’70s. And thanks to reforms in the bureaucracy, business has been bullish and foreign direct investment has been rising 53.1 percent from 2012 to 2014. But not everything is rosy. Creating jobs remains a challenge, more so as global oil prices plunge. If the downturn continues, some 1.5 million temporary workers in the Middle East could lose their jobs.

INQUIRER.net is publishing verbatim the candidates’ action plans to strengthen the economy and create jobs for Filipinos. For the summary of the 10 pressing issues, go to our special Election 2016 website.

 

Jejomar Binay

A Binay administration will pursue the amendment of the economic provisions of the Constitution. We aim to ease the foreign ownership restrictions on key sectors as this will open up the economy further–a major factor in attracting more foreign direct investments (FDIs). More FDIs mean more jobs and livelihood for Filipinos.

Under a Binay presidency, we will also strengthen substantially the sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, business

Jejomar Binay

Jejomar Binay

process outsourcing, and exporting–which are the five biggest job generators.

Agriculture

Reforms will be undertaken to foster a competitive and sustainable agriculture and fisheries sector to increase agricultural productivity. A Binay presidency will create agricultural economic zones in key agricultural provinces and promote agricultural value-added processes to increase job creation, reduce post-harvest process and enhance output value.

We will train farmers to shift from subsistence farming to agribusiness; amend CARP (Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program) provisions to allow farmers to lease their land to agri-entrepreneurs and investors; and push crop diversification, wherein high-value crops–much more profitable than rice and corn–are planted.

A Binay administration will also provide subsidies in irrigation, fertilizer and seeds to help farmers defray some costs. We will also help farmers get connected to markets such as restaurant chains, supermarkets and food processing companies, and enable them to access credit. We will strengthen crop insurance services and credit guarantee to minimize farm-related credit risk. We will also seek to lower transaction cost to reduce lending rates.

We will improve water resource management and planning through research, and train local farmers as an operational intervention to increase manpower and double the area of irrigated lands.

Many of our farmers are now aging and young Filipinos shun farming because it is perceived to be difficult and its returns are low. It is vital that the government help reverse this thinking in order to ensure the sustainability of our agricultural sector and our food security.

Business Process Outsourcing

The business process outsourcing industry has greatly contributed to the economy and provided an unprecedented number of jobs to the Filipino people. The “IT-BPO Roadmap 2011-2016: Driving Global Leadership” formulated by the Business Processing Association of the Philippines stated that if the forecast will come true, the IT-BPO companies could employ up to 1.3 million Filipinos and generate 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

As the industry relies heavily on good Internet connection, the Binay administration will create a Department of Information and Communications Technology to help improve the country’s IT infrastructure and help grow the BPO sector further.

Tourism

The Philippines also needs to promote tourism as an economic driver. If tourist arrivals increase to 15 million by 2020, it will result in employing almost 10% of our population in tourism-related work and for the tourism sector to contribute 10% of our GDP. A Binay administration will develop, craft and implement a National Tourism Strategy that will link infrastructure development, support services and establishments, marketing and promotions plan, and development plans for tourism areas.

Manufacturing and export

There is a need for the manufacturing and export sector to become more competitive since the sector provides higher wages and absorbs more Filipino workers as compared to other sectors. A Binay presidency will focus on policies and reforms that will allow expansion of this sector by improving infrastructure and technology/logistics to lower costs of production, establish finance support programs for small- and medium-scale enterprises, streamline the bureaucratic process such as establishing one-stop shop, ensure affordable energy/power cost, continue to produce strong and highly-skilled workforce and encourage domestic linkages for raw materials.

To bolster these areas of development, it is essential that: (1) infrastructure development is made a priority; (2) increase fiscal space to benefit the businessmen and free the middle class; (3) streamline the bureaucracy; (4) adopt an energy policy conducive to growth; (5) leave business to the businessmen; (6) empower the local government units; (7) adopt policies that take into consideration issues on climate changes; and (8) a cooperative foreign policy.

Rody Duterte

Initiate measures to curb the present practice of contractualization.
Set higher coverage targets for the Social Security Systems, Philippine Health Insurance Corp. and Pag-ibig Fund.
Revitalize basic industries like steel to create raw materials for downstream industries that are job generating.
Prioritize agriculture and the processing of agricultural products to provide job and livelihood opportunities in the countryside, as

Rody Duterte

Rody Duterte

well as increase farm incomes, farmers and fishermen being among the poorest of our population.
Create the peaceful environment in the countryside to encourage investment beyond incentives.
Lower electricity costs by encouraging smart grids and small scale power generation to include household solar power generation.
By prioritizing agricultural development, coupled with transportation infrastructure to link farm production with their markets, we can ensure accessibility and affordability of food, which is the biggest part of average household expenditures.
Infrastructure gaps, whether in the countryside or in key urban centers, shall be prioritized and substantially filled, or at least initiated, during my term.
Grace Poe

Poverty Alleviation: Poverty Alleviation is our flagship economic strategy.
Pursue a context sensitive poverty alleviation strategy anchored on enterprise development, development of agriculture/agribusiness, manufacturing and tourism, human development, fair competition policy, political empowerment and participatory development, social security, direct assistance to the poor and asset building and reform.
Critical Infrastructure: Ensure that our infrastructure program is

Grace Poe

Grace Poe

designed to be participative, collaborative and innovative.
Undertake a whole-of-government approach and tap the participation of private sector and civil society in making an assessment and evaluation of our existing infrastructure situation for a sounder national infrastructure plan
Review existing contracts, particularly in transport infrastructure, to terminate onerous agreements and contracts loaded with huge penalty payments and sovereign guarantees that short-change both the general public and taxpayers
Maximize three viable options in the development of key infrastructure projects: National Government Financing, Public-Private Partnerships and Office Development Assistance and ensure the wise and strategic use of these mechanisms.
Regional Competitiveness: The building blocks of national competitiveness are competitive regions. Our program to increase regional competitiveness is anchored on three pillars: 1) fostering a healthy local economy, 2) good local governance and 3) appropriate infrastructure.
Healthy Local Economy. Coupled with efforts to development enterprises, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) will be empowered to have full access to and become competitive in both regional and international markets by: (1) identifying markets and opportunities where their products and services are in demand, (2) upscaling the quality and compliance of their products to international standards, and (2) finding ways to move their goods and services to various markets at the least possible cost.
Good Local Governance. Establish an apex MSME agency to ensure the effective implementation of the integrated services system; Harmonize the efforts of both national agencies and local government units to make the support system—from access to finance to business mentoring—easily accessible to MSMEs.
Appropriate Infrastructure. National government agencies such as the Department of Transportation and Communications and Department of Public Works and Highways will work with regional and local government counterparts to ensure that infrastructure projects undergo correct procurement process and projects are awarded to contractors with track records in long-term maintenance.
Tax Environment: Design and implement a tax system that is simple, stable and certain.
Tax rate and bracketing reforms. Introduce two sets of reforms in our tax system:
Adjust income tax brackets taking into account inflation so that the cut-off for every tax bracket would be increased based on the amount of current prices to protect the purchasing power of the individual tax payer
Lower personal and corporate tax rates in a well-phased manner (annual) to be at par with our Asean neighbors
Tax administration. Improve tax collection rates of both the Bureau of Internal Revenue and Bureau of Customs from a moderate 1% to an aggressive 2% of the GDP by leveraging on full automation of tax filing and customs procedures through ICT to ensure maximum tax compliance.
Tax simplification. Re-engineer the tax filing process by minimizing the number of steps, requirements, forms and fees imposed by tax collection agencies. It takes around 36 payments and 193 hours to fully comply with tax obligations.
Investment Climate: Create an attractive, healthy, low-cost and predictable investment climate.
Increase level of cohesion between government, business groups and stakeholders in crafting and developing industry roadmaps to attract more investments in the country.
Investment promotions agencies such as the Bureau of International Trade Relations, Export Marketing Bureau and Foreign Trade Services Corps shall work with the Board of Investment to identify bottlenecks that cause foreign direct investment inflow fluctuation and align investment priority areas with industry roadmaps for a solid and time-bound action agenda.
Take careful but important steps to review and amend the economic provisions of the Constitution, particularly in industries that need more foreign investments—the primary and service sectors, mining, oil and gas industries while ensuring that support systems and adequate safety nets are in place to increase absorptive capacities of our local industries.

Mar Roxas

For the past five years, we’ve managed to sustain our growth numbers but efforts to do so were simultaneous with our anticorruption measures, which may have limited government spending at first. Nonetheless, we have managed to yield positive results and gained the confidence of the world from being the “sick man of Asia” to “Asia’s bright spot” by upholding the bedrock principles of Daang Matuwid: Transparency, rules-based

Mar Roxas

Mar Roxas

governance and a strong anticorruption foundation. To make for an environment that is even more conducive for social and economic development, we must ensure stability and predictability of policy outcomes.

Therefore, it follows that if we want to achieve more, we must continue on our path. The first five years of Daang Matuwid have allowed us to address the leakages in the system. Now that the pipelines have been sealed, the next years will be devoted to investing in our people by providing quality services such as education, trainings in diversified skills, infrastructure, and the creation of more and higher value jobs.

For example, we see agriculture as both an immense challenge and a lucrative opportunity that holds the key to our country’s development. We can revitalize our agricultural sector by consolidating the production of agricultural products in order to achieve efficiencies and economies of scale. In the process, we are insulating our farmers from vulnerabilities caused by natural calamities such as droughts and typhoons by treating them as employees with a monthly salary. Not only are we providing the farmers a safety net, we are also reducing their operational costs, making agriculture an efficient, profitable, and competitive venture for investors and job-seekers.

We also intend to see resurgence in the manufacturing industry by inducing competition in the power sector, which in turn will lower power costs and attract investments in industry. Jobs generated in the manufacturing sector can provide a stable source of income for Filipinos. By using our balance sheet to make capital more accessible to the people, we can also spur growth in local economies and unleash the energies of our micro, small and medium entrepreneurs.

All these deliberate efforts will be undertaken to ensure that the workforce can move higher in the value chain and that every Filipino family is given a fair chance to be free from hunger, free from fear, and free to dream.

Miriam Defensor-Santiago

I commit that the Philippine economy will grow faster than ever before, that it will be truly inclusive by making sure that real incomes of workers will increase over time. We will achieve the goal of higher and sustained economic growth by investing heavily in public infrastructure. Our roads, bridges, urban transit systems, airports and seaports are crumbling. We need to build them up at par with, if not better than, our Asean neighbors. We need to prepare our people for a more modern, more competitive global

Miriam Defensor Santiago

Miriam Defensor Santiago

economy. We need to educate them, take care of their health, and feed them so they will become productive members of a growing work force. Only by investing in people can we truly make growth inclusive. Only if the young are educated and healthy can they benefit from growing economic prosperity. My administration will:

Modernize agriculture and make it more productive by:
Investing in productivity enhancing infrastructure to boost agriculture;
Investing in irrigation and water impounding facilities in order to allow more planting cycles and to minimize the impact of El Niño and La Niña;
Financing programs that would expand the use of new seed varieties and modern technology in order to increase farm yield; and
Investing in research and technology;
Reinvigorate manufacturing and reenergize exports by:
Implementing a more affordable and stable power supply;
Reducing cost of doing business in the Philippines;
Improving peace and order in farms and factories;
Creating national industries that can be marketed internationally, such as machinery and equipment for agriculture; and
Making the peso competitive relative to currencies of our competitors;
Improve the investment climate by:
Streamlining and harmonizing business process and licensing procedures;
Codifying and updating laws and issuances affecting customs and tariffs;
Enhancing trade facilitation measures;
Cutting red tape at the local government level;
Drastically reducing regulations at the Bureau of Customs and the regulatory bodies; and
Amending the restrictive provisions in the Philippine Constitution which have discouraged the entry of foreign investors into the country;
Reform the tax system by:
Adopting comprehensive income taxation and reducing maximum personal income tax rate from 32 percent to 25 percent;
Reducing the corporate income tax (CIT) rate from 30 percent to 25 percent;
Rationalizing fiscal incentives to partly offset the revenue loss from lowering the CIT rate;
Imposing a national real property tax (RPT) piggybacked on local RPT;
Abolishing the estate tax;
Abolishing tax on dividends; and
Gradually raising the value-added tax rate from 12 to 15 percent by 2019; and
Reduce unemployment and underemployement by:
Ending contractualization, which is an economic deprivation of life and security of person;
Creating national industries to increase job opportunities for skilled workers in the Philippines to prevent migration of workers; and
Creating more jobs per sector, especially in the science and technology, and infrastructure industry.

Mar Roxas 2 mini-attack ads – view them here

February 3, 2016 1 comment

finally completed – these are the two (2) mini attack ads by Mar Roxas

this was the first one aired:

the emphatic ending of “higit sa lahat hindi ko kayo nanakawan” is an obvious reference to Jojo Binay.

 

this is the second one:

Roxas says:

  • “walang drama” – refers to Grace Poe and her dramatics
  • “hindi ako paawa” – refers to Jojo Binay
  • “hindi ako siga-siga: – refers to Rody Duterte
  • “hindi run ako abusado” – most probably refers to Jojo Binay
  • “at hindi ako magnanakaw” – definitely refers to Jojo Binay

we think Binay had the most mention, 3 mentions out of 5 because he is #1 in he presidentiables survey. Poe and Duterte got one mention each because they are the other two contenders. Santiago did not get any mention because she is even lower than Roxas at the surveys.

what do you think of these ads? let us know by posting your comments here.

 

Team Binay whines about vsBinay attack ads

February 2, 2016 Leave a comment

we posted this yesterday:

we think the Binay team should be in serious meetings since last night strategizing and knocking their heads on how to respond to the attack ads. they have several choices :

  • complain to media about the attack ads
  • answer the ads though a press conference
  • have the ads banned from the air
  • launch their own attack ads against Roxas

we think for sure they will do #1. they will do that today. and probably do #2 too. the Binay team complains a lot and they do these things on a regular basis.

click and read here : a new era in Philippine political advertising – full blown attack ads vs Binay and Mar Roxas’ mini-attack ads

and #1 is exactly what happened yesterday with this news article  at the PDI:

Binay camp cries foul over ‘negative’ TV ads

The camp of Vice President Jejomar Binay Monday cried foul over the spread of “spurious” commercials that were apparently aimed at reviving the web of corruption issues being hurled against the standard-bearer of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

Rico Quicho, one of Binay’s spokespersons, claimed that the videos were the handiwork of the ruling Liberal Party (LP) and that these were part of the latest smear campaign of the allies of the administration’s presidential candidate, Mar Roxas.

Quicho said the coordinated efforts to vilify the UNA presidential contender “started in the Senate and continued up to this day through a deceptive advertiseRico-Paolo-Quichoment.”

In a text message to the Inquirer, he said, “The elitist campaign to discredit the Vice President is nothing but lies and innuendos.”

“This is a manifestation of the vain attempt to compensate the gross inefficiency and lack of empathy of the LP’s presidential candidate through inappropriate mudslinging against another candidate,” he added.

Asked why he thought the LP was behind the political ads, Quicho said, “LP’s actions speak louder than words.”

“The participation of (LP) in the conspiracy to destroy the Vice President’s reputation is clear and obvious,” he added.

The three 15-second political ads came out in a major television network on Friday and have since been shared in social media by a group called “Supporters of Truth.”

Source : http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/760660/binay-camp-cries-foul-over-negative-tv-ads#ixzz3yzM9SZME 

the attack ads must be something for the Team Binay to take notice of them. from the article, it said the vsBinay attack ads were first aired last friday and there is apparently another attack ad against Grace Poe on her American citizenship. we have not seen the one from Poe. we watched a lot of local TV last night and we did not see the attack ads on air. we also still cannot find copies of the ads at the internet.

the attack ads are very useful, we wonder why they are not giving them good media weights behind them.

note: to the group called Supporters Of Truth can you get in touch with us because we want to post the attack ads here,

interesting for the 2016 election and for political advertising in the philippines, attack ads are new in philippine elections and philippine advertising.

 

 

a new era in Philippine political advertising – full blown attack ads vs Binay and Mar Roxas’ mini-attack ads

February 1, 2016 Leave a comment

a new era in Philippine political advertising was opened up last night with the airing of three (3) full blown attack ads against presdientiable Jojo Binay aired at last night’s Kapuso Mo Jessica Soho TV show at GMA 7.

we’re still looking for copies of the vsBinay attack ads on the internet but this is what we remember the ads to be:

  • all three (3) ads are talking heads
  • 2 of the ads have 2 males and the third ad had a female talking head
  • all three looked like ordinary folks
  •  first ad aired started with “Boss Binay…” then the ad enumerates the various corruption charges related to Makati buildings
  • second ad talks about the numerous bank accounts Binay allegedly have. supers highlight the number of bank accounts and the total in the accounts, “P11 Billion”
  • third ad started with “Boss Binay…” then talks about Hacienda Binay
  • all the ads end with the talking heads asking to answer the allegations featured in the ad

these are full blown attack ads – they refer to only one candidate, even calls out Binay directly and focusses on the corruption allegations that have been made on Binay. the intent of the ad is to remind people of the negatives on Binay. focussed on that, the ad does not mention who the ad is from and who the audience should vote for. it does not build up a candidate, it aims to destroy one. the aim of the ad is to make Binay supporters drop Binay and choose another candidate. Binay in the most recent SWS survey has catapulted back to the number 1 spot.

who produced and aired the vsBinay attack ads? that is not identified in the ads. the ending supers of the ads just says “this is a paid advertisement”. in the US attack ads identify from whom the ad is from where at the ending of the attack ad says “i am (name of candidate) and i approve this ad” with a picture of the candidate who released the ad.

we think and this is just based on speculation on our part, the vsBinay attack ads may have come from the Roxas campaign. the media placements on the TV show seem to point to that. the vsBinay attack ads were aired very close to the Roxas ads that were aired on the show. media buys are done in clusters where ads from the same group are aired within the same program. no Binay was aired at the Jessica Soho TV show, only the Roxas ads were aired.

also and this could be competing reason enough to believe the Roxas campaign aired the vsBinay attack ads – it is Roxas who stands to gain the most in bringing down Binay in the surveys. Binay just climbed to the number 1 spot while Roxas has been languishing on the 4th spot. that is a dismal performance considering that there are only 5 presidentiables.

we think the Binay team should be in serious meetings since last night strategizing and knocking their heads on how to respond to the attack ads. they have several choices :

  1. complain to media about the attack ads
  2. answer the ads though a press conference
  3. have the ads banned from the air
  4. launch their own attack ads against Roxas

we think for sure they will do #1. they will do that today. and probably do #2 too. the Binay team complains a lot and they do these things on a regular basis.

#3 for sure they will do and as of this writing the ad agency must be writing a complaint letter to the Philippine Ad Board (this goes by another name now). the Philippine Ad Board is a self-regulatory body put up by the Philippine advertising industry where all ads pass through and are given approval to air, print or release. TV stations require an approval slip before they are aired on media.

the Ad Board has very specific and exhaustive guidelines as to what can be aired and not aired on Philippine media. all advertisers and ad agencies follow these guidelines.

competing clients and their ad agencies can petition the Ad Board to have an ad removed from the air. the Binay Team will most likely attempt to do this today. it would be a nice effort, but i do not think the Ad Board will agree to ban the ads. the Binay Team does not have any basis for having the attack ads banned. but they can always try.

my guess is that if the Binay Team is denied in its complaint to ban the attack ads, they will probably make a stink of it in media or take the Roxas Team to court. it will be an interesting time for Philippine advertising.

let’s step back a little first.

these three vsBinay attack ads follow the mini-attack ads Mar Roxas aired a few days ago. in fact, we also saw a new second mini-attack ad by Mar Roxas last night.

the mini-attack ads aired by Roxas is a talking head of Mar Roxas talking to the audience about who he is and what he will do. his topics are the negatives of his opponents and aims to convince the audience that he will not be like his opponents.

the Roxas mini-attack ad aired last night follows the first one aired by the Roxas campaign last January 26, 2015 (click here to read : Mar Roxas campaign airs a mini attack ad). the first mini-attack ad was against Binay, it ended with Roxas saying “hindi ako magnanakaw” while the second mini-attack ad was against presidentiable Rody Duterte.

note : we are trying to get copies of the ads and will post them here when available.

a day after  the first Roxas mini-attack ad was aired, we posted this on January 27, 2915 (3:20 pm) over Twitter (@wawam) :

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then an updated version was posted on January 28, 2016 (9:41 am) :

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the attack ads that the Roxas campaign aired were not the type that we think would work best for Roxas. we thought Roxas needed to air more hard working (i.e. hard hitting) attack ads. nastier ones that would cut like a knife on his opponents. and for his campaign to do that, we thought it should be from the Liberal Party or the senators. we were thinking of omnibus ads from the Liberal Party or all the LP senatorial candidates could handle the nasty attack ads.

having said that, the mini-attack ads Roxas aired is still a good step in the right direction. the good thing about them is that they replace the boring and to us quite ineffective TV ads Roxas has been airing since last year.

Philippine political advertising has been changed by the attack ads. i think it has taken it to a different and higher level of sophistication. attack ads on its own are tricky ads to do and this is the first time that attack ads are being done in the Philippines. it is tricky because it can go overboard and can backfire if not done right.

being new, the Philippine audience or voters will need to adjust and learn to take them in. the Philippine audience until last night have only been exposed to  positive ads about their candidates. these ads now talk about negatives about candidates and that will take some adjustment in understanding and specially accepting them.

with this change, the 2016 election will be one for the books. it will make history and change things for the future.

or we can conclude that  the 2016 election is one heck of a nasty election.

Roxas surges up, jumps from far 4th to tie declining Binay at 2nd – Pulse Asia

September 29, 2015 Leave a comment

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Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:

  • Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
  • Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
  • Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
  • the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
  • of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
  • in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined

just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.

we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.

the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.

Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.

aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.

the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president  is  the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.

the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.

that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.

as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.

Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.

with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed  against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.

Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.

it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.

when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points.  a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.

for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed.  for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.

based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.

are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?

 

 

 

 

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