we have four questions. but before that –
today, the executive committee of the ruling party/administration LAKAS-KAMPI chose their standard bearer – gilbert teodoro.
the news in today’s event is not only the choice in teodoro but also the one they did not choose and the one who was not in the room when the choice was made.
of the three, teodoro is the least popular, getting only 0.2% in the last nationwide survey of Pulse Asia held in August. he is the asterisk man. in research data tables, results that get less than 0.5% are usually represented by an asterisk, the number not anymore printed as a number takes too much space on the report and besides it is really of no consequence,
for fernando, the interesting part is to know what he will do tomorrow, now that he has not been chosen by his own party. fernando is definitely a much stronger presidentiable than teodoro. he has the reputation of being a no-non sense man who gets things done no matter how difficult as long as it is right and for the good of the city. we admire that of fernando. we like that of him except that we get nightmares behind the fear of the philippines transforming into a pink gotham city. he is a strong willed man and the man has ambition, he will probably not stop at being rejected by his own party.
we have to give it to fernando – his own party has shunned him very early with key figures of his party giving him uncalled for negative comments but he stayed on hoping against hope itself. he has determination. unfortunately for him, his party has determination for teodoro, not him.
to me the biggest news is the man who snubbed the event – vice president noli de castro. he was supposed to be anointed one by no less than the queen herself gloria macapagal arroyo. de castro has always been independent minded and he continued to show it here – choosing not to give in to the seduction of being the anointed one.
de castro snubbing the ruling/admin part is a big loss to the party, just a tiny shake for de castro. de castro has consistently been in the top 3 or top 2 in the presidential surveys. clearly he is the king among all the admin/ruling party presidentiables. losing such a great candidate is a huge loss for the party. what will de castro do tomorrow, that is another interesting question. whatever he does, for sure it will not be good for the ruling party/admin.
with teodoro, the asterisk man being the admin/ruling party standard bearer, we need to ask the obvious – what will happen to the them as a political party. it has not been well even before this event today.
fidel ramos has been making noise about his displeasure about the merger. he wants out. or he wants control. party members have been fidgety, nervous and anxious as it took a long time to decide on the standard bearer. the admin/ruling party reached the pits when in a desperate move, it even floated the idea of adapting manny villar as its standard bearer, an obvious desperate attempt to save itself for the obvious reason that villar is the best candidate among all of them since he has been topping the polls over many periods. asking your main competitor to be your candidate is the most stupid thing a party can do. but it did shamelessly and the answer they got from villar – NO WAY!
that leads us the last of the four questions we have. the first question was quo vadis teodoro? quo vadis fernando? quo vadis de castro? and quo vadis LAKAS-KAMPI?
cast your vote –
who is your choice for president
among the presidentiables for the 2010 election?
click your choice,
then click the “vote” button to register your vote.
note that the program will allow you to vote only once.
we will be posting summaries of the poll results when major changes occur.
click “view results” to view current count of votes.
poll started april 29, 2009
september 23, 2009; 7pm
villanueva continue to lead at 43% followed by escudero and aquino who are tied at 2nd with 15%. villar follows a far 4th at 9%, then bayani at 6%
september 15, 2009; 9am
noynoy aquino moves to 2nd at 15%, overtaking escudero who is now with 13% of the votes. villanueva continues to lead at 44% . villar is a far 4th at 9%.
september 12, 2009; 1pm
it seems noynoy aquino can’t be stopped, from nothing noynoy is now on 3rd place at an impressive 15% behind leaders villanueva now down to 32% at 1st place and right on the heels of escudero who is at a close 2nd at 17%. noynoy as of this writing has become a real threat to the leaders. this big time surge was powered by facebook citizens where we see a large army of facebook account holders came to this blog to vote. (read articles in this blog on noynoy aquino here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/noynoy-aquino/
just 3 days since included in this poll, noynoy aquino gains a big time surge in votes, now at 9%, breaking away from the laggard’s group of presidentiables. aquino is now 5th in the standings. the surge for noynoy have been brought about by an army of facebook account holders voting for noynoy. no changes in the rankings among the leaders.
september 9, 2009; 9pm
noynoy aquino added to the poll while ed panlilio and jejomar binay were removed. with the removal of binay, major changes in ratings but standing remain the same. villanueva continue to lead at 41%, escudero at 2nd with 19%, villar at 3rd with 13% and fernando at 4th with 11%. more changes in rankings and ratings are expected.
september 1, 2009; 8pm
mar roxas has been removed from the poll as he has withdrawn his candidacy for president. villanueva widens lead at 34% at top spot. he is followed by escudero at 17%, villar is 3rd at 12%. binay and fernando are tied at 10% on 4th/5th place.
read full history of this poll: here http://wp.me/pnw03-cr
news reports have it that by wednesday, the admin and ruling party Lakas-Kampi will announce their standard bearer for the 2010 presidential election. the choice is between gilbert teodoro and bayani fernando, both laggards in the suverys.
noli de castro a third choice seem to be out of the running as he seem to be uninterested in running as president. we don’t know if it is no interest in the presidency or no interest in running under the ruling party.
It’s either Gibo or BF for Lakas-Kampi-CMD
By Christian V. Esguerra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 20:31:00 09/13/2009
MANILA, Philippines – Vice President Noli de Castro has formally informed the administration party that he will not run for president under its banner in the 2010 elections —if ever he decides to run at all, according to a source to privy to the discussions.
De Castro’s decision sets the stage for the Lakas-Kampi-CMD to name either Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro or Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando as its standard-bearer.
The vice president, who ran and won as an independent in 2004, broke the news to Gabriel Claudio, the party’s secretary general, in a meeting last week, said the source who requested anonymity for not having been authorized to speak to the media on the matter.
Sought for comment, Claudio, also the presidential adviser on political affairs, said on Sunday he was leaving it up to De Castro to make the official announcement about the decision.
“We had an agreement that it would come from him,” he told the Inquirer. “It was never our intention to pressure him, to put any deadline on him. The party has its own mechanisms, processes and timetable and he has always known about them.”
“If he had any intention (to run) at all, he would have given indications, not only to the party, but also to the public,” he added.
Claudio noted the apparent absence of any effort by De Castro to present himself as a presidential aspirant.
it looks like the month of september is the key month for the 2010 presidentiable elections:
- noynoy aquino will announce his 2010 election plans.
- it is the month when mar roxas withdrew his candidacy. mar is one of the major contenders.
- other presidentiables will firm up their plans within the month as well.
- the admin party says they will announce their candidate by the end of the month.
- noli de castro will announce his 2010 election plans on september 15.
- the admin party has given de castro 1 week to decide on his plans.
- loren legarda might give in to chiz escudero
Lakas-Kampi to De Castro: You have 1 week
By Christian V. Esguerra, Cynthia Balana
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 04:31:00 09/08/2009
MANILA, Philippines—Make up your mind.
Vice President Noli de Castro has exactly one week to decide whether to join the selection process for the administration party’s standard-bearer in next year’s presidential election.
Legarda giving way to Escudero, says solon
By Christine Avendaño, Gil C. Cabacungan Jr.
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 04:51:00 09/08/2009
MANILA, Philippines—A member of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) Monday said Sen. Loren Legarda was on the verge of giving way to Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero as the party’s standard-bearer in 2010.
Agusan del Sur Rep. Rodolfo Plaza told reporters that “Loren will give up her presidential ambition [in favor of] Chiz soon” based on ongoing talks between the camps of the two parties.
arroyo “elated” by governors endorsement of presidentiable teodoro, a cellar dweller in surveys. opposition should also be elated.
arroyo elated over the endorsement of gilbert teodoro by 49 governors must have the opposition also elated for arroyo’s elation. gilbert teodoro is one of the cellar dwellers in the latest pulse asia presidentiables survey (read here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/08/25/pulse-asia-august-2009-presidentiables-survey-villar-builds-lead/) getting only a 0.2%. that means the opposition will easily beat the admin candidate.
we are actually confused by this elation of arroyo on teodoro. a more recent news article said arroyo had “anointed” noli de castro as the admin presidentiable candidate. (read here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/08/29/arroyo-anoints-de-castro-a-blessing-or-a-kiss-of-death/) so is it de castro or is it teodoro? “elation” does not translate to “anointed” and “anointed” does not translate to “elation”.
the other part of this news article is that members of the admin political party are highly anxious as they do not know yet where they stand. they have no idea who their presidentiable is and they do not know what the process their party is taking to get to that decision.
these party members are most probably feeling very insecure as there is so much news on the opposition side with recent announcements of interesting opposition presidentiables and the most recent drama behind noynoy aquino’s presidentiable plans.
their insecurity is well founded. without a candidate identified, they can’t make up their mind and more importantly they can’t promote their candidates. arroyo being “elated” over teodoro and at the same time “anointing” de castro adds to the confusion and division that news articles are reporting as occurring in the admin political party.
something has the be said about admin local government support for admin candidates. there was none of it in the last senatorial election. in that election almost all the admin senatoriables did not win the election and one of the reasons was that the admin barangay captains, mayors and governors did not campaign for admin senatoriables.
these are the same group of admin local officials who endorsed teodoro that arroyo is elated about. and that is the reason why the opposition presidentiables should be happy with arroyo’s elation.
Arroyo elated by govs’ choice of Teodoro
By Michael Lim Ubac, TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:36:00 09/06/2009 MANILA, Philippines—President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was “elated” by the news that 49 governors have endorsed the presidential candidacy of Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro.
“She was elated by it not because it was Secretary Teodoro but the one endorsed is a member of the administration party,” Secretary Gabriel Claudio, Arroyo’s chief political adviser, told dzRB radio.
The move by a group of governors endorsing the presidential candidacy of Teodoro shows that members of the administration coalition are getting impatient for the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD to choose a presidential standard-bearer for 2010, according to Mandaluyong Mayor Benhur Abalos. Read more…
this is rare in philippine politics, even among the opposition. its a good photo op. interestingly, key admin presidentiables teodoro, de castro and vice presidentiable puno were not in the group. the only admin presidentiable who was present was bayani fernando while mike velarde from the opposition was also not there.
does that mean those who did not attend plan to cheat in the 2010 elections? hello, garci you there? again?
No cheating in 2010, poll aspirants vow
By Philip Tubeza
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:06:00 08/31/2009
The aspirants—who included survey front-runners Sen. Manuel Villar, former President Joseph Estrada, and Senators Francis “Chiz” Escudero, Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, and Loren Legarda—also signed sworn statements, duly notarized, declaring that they would not cheat in the elections and would observe the rule of law if elected.
The event was also attended by Senators Francis Pangilinan, Richard Gordon, Jamby Madrigal, Metro Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, evangelist Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” Villanueva, environmentalist Nicanor “Nikki” Perlas, and Olongapo Councilor Carlos “JC” delos Reyes of the lay Catholic political group Ang Kapatiran.
Other aspirants who were supposed to attend but did not make it to the event were Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro and Interior Secretary Ronnie Puno. They were reportedly sick. Vice President Noli de Castro was not around, either.
arroyo anointing de castro as the “chosen one” puts de castro in a pickle. these are the things that de castro need to think about:
- the last senatorial election when almost all senatorial candidates of the administration lost in the election. the admin senators lost despite malacanang boasting about the GDP growth during that time and saying their political machinery was working for the admin senators. even senator trillanes won that election who was in jail during the campaign period and had little advertising. on the other hand many of the admin senators were top ad spenders but lost the election just the same. the easy conclusion is that an arroyo endorsement or being associated with arroyo is a kiss of death.
- arroyo is the most unpopular president since marcos – is arroyo’s backing and anointment worth anything? in other words, not much has changed since the senatorial elections when being associated with arroyo was a kiss of death.
- is arroyo’s anointment consistent with de castro’s image of being independent? de castro ran as an independent, will he give this up?
- will de castro’s refusal of arroyo’s anointment bolster his image as an independent?
- will it be the end of arroyo and the admin political party if de castro refuses the anointment?
- can de castro ignore the advantage of being supported by the incumbent president and party in power? the admin holds the majority in congress. is that worth anything? or worth losing?
- does de castro have a political machinery to back him up? maybe he does not need the supposed “admin political machinery”. is there really value to the admin political machinery?
- will accepting arroyo’s anointment be a strategic advantage or a strategic disaster?
tell us what you think.
Arroyo ‘anoints’ De Castro
By TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 05:55:00 08/29/2009
MANILA, Philippines — There should be no doubt any longer as to who President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo wants to anoint as the administration presidential standard-bearer in 2010, and as her would-be successor.
Vice President Noli de Castro has the qualities of a “good President,” Ms Arroyo said in a statement Friday, a virtual endorsement of De Castro’s future candidacy, even as the ruling party is still drawing up its selection criteria.
The President, who chairs the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD, issued the statement to thank De Castro for speaking well of the party, and for saying that he saw his current position as on-the-job training for the top post.
Press Secretary Cerge Remonde said Ms Arroyo was confirming that she wanted De Castro to be the party’s presidential candidate, while not wanting to preempt De Castro and party officials.
“There’s nothing inconsistent about it,” he said. “There’s nothing left to settle except the process and time.”
Ms Arroyo said that while she did not want to get ahead of De Castro’s decision, she wanted to thank him “for acknowledging the value of the administration party’s support and attesting to the earnest work that we do in the Cabinet as well as its significance on on-the-job training for the presidency.”
“The party, the Cabinet and I regard Vice President de Castro as a leader imbued with decency, capability, dedication to public service and genuine sensitivity for the Filipino masses that will make him a good President,” she said.
Ms Arroyo’s statement was relayed to De Castro via text message and released to the press.
De Castro has yet to issue a reply.
The administration coalition has been wooing De Castro, who ran as an independent as Ms Arroyo’s running mate in 2004, to be its standard-bearer in 2010. He is seen to be the administration’s best bet against the opposition front-runners.
De Castro was topping all presidential preference surveys for the past several months until very recently when he fell behind Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. and deposed President Joseph Estrada in a Pulse Asia survey, a fact that party officials have attributed to his silence on his plans and lack of television ads.
De Castro confirmed on Thursday that Ms Arroyo had asked him to be the coalition’s standard-bearer, although she said he would have to go through the nomination process.
He said he has not given an answer yet because he was still unsure whether to run for President.