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Team Binay whines about vsBinay attack ads

February 2, 2016 Leave a comment

we posted this yesterday:

we think the Binay team should be in serious meetings since last night strategizing and knocking their heads on how to respond to the attack ads. they have several choices :

  • complain to media about the attack ads
  • answer the ads though a press conference
  • have the ads banned from the air
  • launch their own attack ads against Roxas

we think for sure they will do #1. they will do that today. and probably do #2 too. the Binay team complains a lot and they do these things on a regular basis.

click and read here : a new era in Philippine political advertising – full blown attack ads vs Binay and Mar Roxas’ mini-attack ads

and #1 is exactly what happened yesterday with this news article  at the PDI:

Binay camp cries foul over ‘negative’ TV ads

The camp of Vice President Jejomar Binay Monday cried foul over the spread of “spurious” commercials that were apparently aimed at reviving the web of corruption issues being hurled against the standard-bearer of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

Rico Quicho, one of Binay’s spokespersons, claimed that the videos were the handiwork of the ruling Liberal Party (LP) and that these were part of the latest smear campaign of the allies of the administration’s presidential candidate, Mar Roxas.

Quicho said the coordinated efforts to vilify the UNA presidential contender “started in the Senate and continued up to this day through a deceptive advertiseRico-Paolo-Quichoment.”

In a text message to the Inquirer, he said, “The elitist campaign to discredit the Vice President is nothing but lies and innuendos.”

“This is a manifestation of the vain attempt to compensate the gross inefficiency and lack of empathy of the LP’s presidential candidate through inappropriate mudslinging against another candidate,” he added.

Asked why he thought the LP was behind the political ads, Quicho said, “LP’s actions speak louder than words.”

“The participation of (LP) in the conspiracy to destroy the Vice President’s reputation is clear and obvious,” he added.

The three 15-second political ads came out in a major television network on Friday and have since been shared in social media by a group called “Supporters of Truth.”

Source : http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/760660/binay-camp-cries-foul-over-negative-tv-ads#ixzz3yzM9SZME 

the attack ads must be something for the Team Binay to take notice of them. from the article, it said the vsBinay attack ads were first aired last friday and there is apparently another attack ad against Grace Poe on her American citizenship. we have not seen the one from Poe. we watched a lot of local TV last night and we did not see the attack ads on air. we also still cannot find copies of the ads at the internet.

the attack ads are very useful, we wonder why they are not giving them good media weights behind them.

note: to the group called Supporters Of Truth can you get in touch with us because we want to post the attack ads here,

interesting for the 2016 election and for political advertising in the philippines, attack ads are new in philippine elections and philippine advertising.

 

 

Duterte’s “bowling ball” TV ad is not a joke, it’s a wawam!

February 1, 2016 Leave a comment

we first saw that ad on the internet. we found it amusing and we thought it was just a joke. a joke as in an ad that some teen-ager made on his computer and posted it on the internet. maybe the teen-ager submitted the “ad” to his high school teacher as a project for his Arts subject. we wondered what grade the highs school teacher gave the project.

we were wrong, it’s a real TV ad as we saw it aired at TV Patrol tonight. it was not a joke.

the ad is very simple, it communicates its message very simply. the analogy of Duterte as a bowling ball rolling over the pins of problems of the country. the visualization is something even young kids will understand. that is a good thing.

that is fine except that the ad has too many pins or problems of the country that as Duterte as the bowling ball rolls and each pin falls, we are unable to read the supers on each of the pins. in other words we could not read what problems Duterte promises to solve.

there are just too many pins or problems of the country that Duterte is promising to topple down. that leads to the biggest weakness on this ad – it is an over-promise. the ad is promising too many things that people might find it unbelievable.

it does not help that the ad does not say how Duterte will topple these problems or what is it in Duterte that will make him solve all the problems. in advertising terms, it does not have a “reason why”.

this is what this ad is all about :

  • lists too many problems of the country that Duterte will solve
  • too many for us to read what they are
  • without telling us how Duterte will solve them
  • or what in Duterte will allow him to solve them
  • and that high number makes the ad unbelievable

conclusion : it’s a wawam!

 

Mar Roxas campaign airs a mini attack ad

January 26, 2016 Leave a comment

note : we are still looking for ways to post the video here. we will post it here once we are able to find a way to do it. 

just tonight, the Mar Roxas campaign aired what i can call a mini attack ad, a small version of the attack ad that i was tweeting about in the afternoon today.

we would have done a more aggressive and a definitively hard hitting attack ad than the one Roxas aired. and because it would be hard hitting, it would be best done by the Liberal Party and the LP senatoriables which is called an omnibus attack ad.

but it is an ad in the right direction. it is an ad better than what Roxas has aired previously and the times and situation that Roxas is in calls for such an ad.

 

the winning ads of the 2016 Philippine election : as of January 2016

January 11, 2016 1 comment

in no particular order:

Presidentiable Jejomar Binay’s “Nognog” TV ad campaign 

there is a new version under the “nognog” campaign that was aired today but it is not yet available at YouTube.

these two ads were the start of the “Nognog” campaign and these ads are associated with reversing Binay’s declining numbers at the presidentiable polls and in fact had put him back at the #1 spot.

we were shocked when these ads aired. the ads directly addressed the issues of allegations of graft and corruption on Binay which have been on the headlines for many months and the reason for the dramatic declines Binay have been suffering at the polls. Binay was definitely on a steep declining trend when these ads aired.

after the ads aired and the surveys released covering the period of airing, the numbers of Binay spiked up. in fact they were a dramatic reversal of the umbers and placed Binay back on top.

the ad effectively redefined the allegations of corruption and graft against Binay. he has been saying these to the press and in appearances in the provinces but it really didn’t do much to change his ratings. that is, until the ads were aired.

we think what made this ad work was the term “nognog” that he called himself in the ads. “nognog” is a derogatory term used on dark skinned Filipinos that was often used against him by anti-Binay voters. Binay is dark skinned and short (pandak).

“nognog” is also something that most Filipinos can relate to. while it may be a negative or derogatory among the Filipino rich who are fair-skinned Filipinos, it is a fair and acceptable description used by the masses among themselves. its use suddenly allowed the masa to relate to Binay.

we think Binay’s “nognog” has the potential to be the “Mr. Palengke” of Mar Roxas when he resoundingly won his senate seat.

 

Senatorial Leila De Lima’s “Justice without fear or favor”

this just aired today. it was different and called your attention. you paid attention to this ad. it is highly creative and you do get the message. this ad  is able to give De Lima an excellent brand positioning among the senatoriables. this ad was so good that De Lima was trending on twitter after the ad aired. the Philippine Daily Inquirer also had an article on it at their website. this extra mileage is what you get when you air a good ad. this ad can push De Lima to the number 1 spot among the senatoriables.

what got us going crazy in this ad is the use of umbrellas. the story of corruption, crime ad drugs is plain to see in the ad. nothing really special about that. but what set it apart aside from the retro feel to it is the use of the umbrellas.

think about it – why did they need to do  a rainy scenario out of the bar? it is January, it is not the rainy season now. the only explanation is that they wanted to use umbrellas in the ad.

and to us, the umbrella is the symbol of corruption, arrogance and power tripping that we saw when Junjun Binay, the mayor of Makati and the son of presidentiable jejomar Binay was caught in a video being shielded by a bodyguard with a giant umbrella on a  non rainy night at Urdaneta Village when he harassed the security guards to let him exit the gate of the village while they were not supposed to .

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this ad firmly defines De Lima’s band positioning – as the anti crime and corruption super hero, a role she fulfilled admirably while she was DOJ chief. this cements that positioning for her.

in some way, we think this positioning of hers and this ad has the potential to take away the thunder from Duterte’s tough on crime positioning.

the ad also has excellent production values. the cinematography, direction, lighting, casting and acting were very topnotch. its fun to watch!

 

Presidentiable Rody Duterte’s “Merry Christmas”

Duterte is a presidentiable that you either hate or love. and there is no in-between – either you passionately love him or passionately hate him.  but this ad you take notice and the ending of the ad makes you smile. do not know if the haters have changed their minds about Duterte, but this ad you like for its wit and unexpected ending.

these ads are not a wawam!

2016 Presidentiables Online Poll Now Open

October 19, 2015 3 comments

 

poll opened October 19, 2015
Rody Duterte added December 4, 2015

supporters abandon Jejomar Binay in mass exodus

October 2, 2015 Leave a comment

there is no other way to describe what has been happening to presidentiable Jejomar Binay and his presidential campaign – his supporters are abandoning him in what can only be called a mass exodus. this is the PDI headline from the most recent survey from Pulse Asia:

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this is a survey from Pulse Asia on the performance and trust rating of Binay as vice-president. this survey asks the performance and trust ratings of the top officials in the government from the president to the speaker of the house and senate to the chief justice. this is different from the election surveys that Pulse Asia (and SWS) have been conducting.

this survey asks respondents of their sentiments in the way Binay is performing his job as vice-president. people will be responding to that question based on what they think a vice president should be doing. Binay’s run for the president is not mentioned in the question that is being asked here.

the results were devastating for Binay – he took a free fall on trust and performance to his lowest level in the process losing a whopping-15% points from 58% to 43% of his approval rating on his performance of his job.

equally devastating is his trust ratings also nose dived by losing-18% points from 57% to 39%.

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source : Philippine Daily Inquirer http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/727269/pulse-asia-binay-ratings-dive

those are very dramatic losses that will make any candidate or even a pollster shudder in fear. this means that on this aspect of Binay’s political life, people are very disappointed with him and that he is being abandoned by his supporters. the vice-president position is a very easy position to fulfill – because of the nature of the job, there are very little things to do unlike say the president or even the cabinet secretaries. because of the ease, the vice president in most surveys typically gets a much higher performance and trust rating than the president.

for Jejomar Binay to get a lower rating than Aquino in this survey says a lot about the huge disappointment that people have on Binay.

in a newspaper report, Binay questions the credibility of this survey by saying he has already resigned his cabinet posts when the survey was conducted, wondering what it was the respondents were rating him for his performance and trust.

Binay is mistaken and raises an irrelevant issue – the survey had asked the respondents on his performance and trust as vice president of the country, not as any of the cabinet post he has occupied and resigned from. respondents are measuring him on the basis of what the respondents think is the job and function of the vice president. as vice-president of the country, the respondents have seen his performance and trust dramatically drop.

in recent surveys released previous to this, Binay’s ratings have shown his declining ratings continue to drop. not only that, his ranking has changed from a high 2nd to either being tied by Roxas at 2nd or falling to 3rd/4th position. the ratings of mar roxas, the LP and admin standard bearer has seen his ratings surge up both in terms of numbers and position where he used to be a far 4th to now a tie at 2nd (posted here in this blog).

the questions asked of the respondents here were point blank – who would they elect as president if the elections were held at the time of the survey and who they think is a good leader to replace Aquino as president.

Binay getting declining numbers on these different surveys says a large part of Binay’s supporters are abandoning Binay in a mass exodus. they are abandoning Binay based on different dimensions of the candidate as Binay – on trust and performance as VP, as a good leader to replace Aquino and as presidential candidate. Binay is being looked at from different dimensions by the voters and in all aspects they no longer see Binay as fit.

on their own these are already dramatic and impressive declines. put that further into context, Binay used to be the top on all the surveys just a few months ago. he was all alone on top with no one even close to challenge him. Binay’s standing started to erode when alleged charges of corruption and plunder were revealed at the senate hearings. at the height of the weekly hearings, when it became vey apparent that Binay was mired in multiple corruption charges, Grace Poe a neophyte senator surged up in the surveys .

the voters saw Binay as the evil one based on the alleged charges while they saw Poe as good in an election that quickly got into a question of an election of Good vs Evil.

we have said this before. Binay should recognize what is happening to his candidacy, these survey numbers are real and representing real sentiments. the sentiments are astoundingly consistent from many dimensions. for him to change his fortunes, he needs to wear big boy pants and face the charges that have been made against him. until he does that, the declining trend will not change and continue until the actual 2016 election.

does binay have big boy pants?

 

 

 

 

 

Roxas surges up, jumps from far 4th to tie declining Binay at 2nd – Pulse Asia

September 29, 2015 Leave a comment

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 8.04.32 PM

Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:

  • Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
  • Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
  • Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
  • the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
  • of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
  • in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined

just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.

we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.

the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.

Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.

aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.

the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president  is  the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.

the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.

that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.

as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.

Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.

with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed  against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.

Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.

it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.

when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points.  a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.

for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed.  for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.

based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.

are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?

 

 

 

 

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