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don’t take SWS yolanda survey on aquino’s “satisfaction performance” seriously – defective design

January 26, 2014 Leave a comment

i was very surprised when media carried this news on the latest SWS survey results that said super typhoon yolanda victims themselves gave president aquino a “very good” performance satisfaction rating.

SWS: PNoy gets ‘very good’ satisfaction ratings from Yolanda victims

Although he has received criticism from some parties for his administration’s response to super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), President Benigno Aquino III got “very good” satisfaction marks from victims of the typhoon, according to a survey by Social Weather Stations.

SWS said this was the finding of its survey last Dec. 11 to 16, where Yolanda victims – which comprised 13 percent of Filipino families – gave Aquino a “very good” +54 net satisfaction rating.

“The December 2013 survey found higher satisfaction ratings for President Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III among victims of Yolanda compared to those who were not victimized by the super typhoon,” the survey said.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/345123/news/nation/sws-pnoy-gets-very-good-satisfaction-ratings-from-yolanda-victims\

essentially the same story was reported by other media outlets. reading the news stories alone, i immediately had a different reaction to the survey results which i tweeted (@wawam). will talk about this next. 

of course malacanang jumped on the “good news”.

Palace ecstatic over Aquino’s ‘very good’ satisfaction rating

MANILA, Philippines— Malacañang  gave itself a pat on the back on Thursday after the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed that Super Typhoon “Yolanda” victims were satisfied with the performance of President Benigno Aquino III during and after its devastation.

“It is gratifying that those who suffered greatly appreciate what their President and their government have done to ease their pain and alleviate their plight despite the shortcomings and challenges still being hurdled,” Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. said Thursday in a press briefing.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/568259/palace-ecstatic-over-aquino-very-good-satisfaction-rating#ixzz2rTD2g5nU
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just based on the survey results published in media, i thought something was not right about the survey which i tweeted:

20140126-111427.jpg

  1. the respondent base for yolanda victims appeared to have been just extrapolated, not a stand alone respondent base. it appeared to me SWS re-looked at the survey results and counted the results of those who live in the yolanda areas and tabulated these results. i felt SWS did not actually conduct a separate survey to ask the respondents these questions but just looked at the survey results of an already finished survey
  2.  coming from the above, i thought the question asked was a general “performance satisfaction” of president  aquino and not specific to aquino’s performance on the yolanda relief efforts. it is very possible that respondents will give very different answers to these questions.

last january 22, SWS posted the specifics of the survey results : i was both right and wrong on the point #1 and was right on point #2. conclusion remains – let us not take these results seriously, the results are what we call in research “soft results”.

i was wrong on point #1 because SWS did not just extrapolate the answers of those living in the yolanda areas what they did was they actually asked the respondents if they were affected by the yolanda.

there could have been 2 ways to extrapolate – 1 is by just applying the % of  respondents living in the yolanda areas to the total results of the total visayas results (a very wrong thing to do) or look at the respondent answer sheets and count the answers of those declaring their address to be in yolanda areas. none of these were done. what they did was they asked a direct question.

i was right in the sense that SWS did not conduct a separate and stand alone survey among those living in the yolanda areas. this should have been the cleanest way to do it. you get an actual sample size in the areas themselves.

since SWS just asked the question among respondents if they were affected by yolanda, this brings up two more questions – is the sample size of 13% enough to read the results and how accurate is it to say that these respondents actually “lived in yolanda areas” when these were just “claimed”.

on the point #2, i was proven right.

the question was a generic performance satisfaction question – “satisfied or dissatisfied in performance as president of the philippines”  and not specific to the performance of the president on post yolanda relief efforts.

the specific “performance on yolanda efforts” can get a very different answer from the generic “performance as president of the philippines”. the first zeroes in on yolanda while the second one includes everything about the presidency and the country in general.

for example, if we ask our spouse, we could be a “very good husband/wife”  as a whole but a “very poor sex partner” in a specific component of marriage.

we do not know why SWS released these survey results and how media plus malacanang take these results when the survey design is critically flawed.

both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results

June 17, 2013 Leave a comment

there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.

SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:

  • 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
  • 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
  • 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
  • adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
  • only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally

Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.

the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were  showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.

Final Election Results 2013

what does this all mean?

it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.

that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.

the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.

last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.

head to head comparison SWS vs Pulse Asia February 2013 Senatoriables Polls

March 13, 2013 Leave a comment

the good news is that the country has two polling companies doing a great job of capturing the sentiments of voters – SWS (social weather station) and Pulse Asia. it also adds to it that they tend to conduct the polls at about the same time. with the respondent criteria about the same and survey timing very close to each other, comparing the two results is a very good thing to do.

surveys give the people a view, scientific and objective, of what others think about candidates and issues. it can help others shape or confirm their own views. in this complex world of ours, more information is always better.

for candidates and handlers of the candidates, it can be more than informational, it can be very instructive. they can use the results to re-shape, change directions or strengthen their winning strategies or fix and avoid their losing strategies.

but that is very much dependent on the skill sets of the candidates and their handlers on analyzing and understanding surveys. that is the first step.

the second and the more important step is formulating new strategies and plans based on the survey analysis and conclusions.

we are providing here a first step analysis of the  survey results. there are a few more steps on analysis that needs to be done and more steps at formulating action steps in strategy change and plans formulation. but those are for another day.

in the meantime….

sws vs pulse 1

sws vs pulse 2

sws vs pulse 3

sws vs pulse 4

sws vs pulse 5

data sources: Pulse Asia & SWS

also read (click) :

sws rating feb2013

pulse asia rating feb2013

dramatic gains for aquino & poe, dramatic drops for trillanes, zubiri & enrile – pulse asia february 2013 senatoriables poll

March 11, 2013 1 comment

not much has changed among the top 3 ranking senatoriables, legarda, escudero and cayetano alan peter from previous poll.

for this february 2013 pulse asia 2013 senatoriables survey, 15 senatoriables are competing for the top 12 position. in order of highest to lowest ranks as follows:

  1. legarda (Team PNoy)
  2. escudero (Team PNoy)
  3. cayetano alan peter (Team PNoy)
  4. villar, cynthia (Team PNoy) 
  5. ejercito (UNA)
  6. aquino, bam (Team PNoy)
  7. binay (UNA)
  8. poe (Team PNoy)
  9. pimentel (Team PNoy)
  10. honasan (UNA)
  11. enrile, jack (UNA)
  12. trillanes (Team PNoy)
  13. angara (Team PNoy)
  14. zubiri (UNA)
  15. gordon (UNA)

6 senatoriables  are battling for the last 3 positions, the 10th to the 12th, senatoriables honasan, enrile, trillanes, angara, zubiri and gordon who are all tied.

at the bottom among the candidates of the two major coalition parties, UNA and Team PNoy, are mitos magsaysay and tingting cojuangco  both from UNA. their rankings have not changed from previous.

among the 15 candidates fighting for the top 12 spots, 9 are from Team PNoy and 6 are from UNA.

among the top 9, only 2 are from UNA (binay and ejercito) while the rest are from Team PNoy. among the 6 who are battling for the last 3 spots, 4 are from UNA and only 2 are from Team PNoy.

with those rankings, if elections were held today, Team PNoy has a chance of gaining 9 out of the 12 seats at best or 7 out of 12 at worst, a clear majority of the seats.

Team PNoy has generally done very well in this survey.

pulse asia feb2013

source : https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b9qPFV1cRDNGJWVXpKN0ZhZU0/edit

dramatic increases in rank and rating were gained by aquino and poe, both by +9 places who are now tied at 4th place from previous survey at 13th place; and +11.8 percentage points and +11.2 percentage points, respectively.

3 senatoriables suffered dramatic losses in rank and rating, 1 from Team PNoy, trillanes and 2 from UNA, enrile and zubiri.  all three lost 5 places in the rankings although all three still came within the top 12.

pulse rank feb2013

 

 

pulse rank UNA feb2013

 

 

 

pulse rating Pnoy feb2013

 

 

pulse rating UNA feb2013

 

 

 

jv ejercito’s identity crisis, he is swimming in contradictions

March 11, 2013 Leave a comment

an article on 2013 senatoriable jv ejercito caught our attention. (see below) the headline struck us like a baseball bat – it was a headline that had a contradiction in it. on one hand JV says he wants to be his own man but the lead in  the headline identified him as “estrada’s son”. it’s either you are estrada’s son or you are yourself, an ejercito.

contradictions from senatoriable jv ejercito? we were not surprised. over at twitter (@wawam), we have talked about the many other contradictions from ejercito, including the name change that ejercito had done for himself.

the first paragraph in the PDI article plainly states what it also found as a contradiction:

He likes to be known as his father’s son, yet senatorial candidate Joseph Victor “JV” Ejercito also says he wants to be his own man.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/371355/estradas-son-jv-wants-to-be-his-own-man#ixzz2NCVc5Ibm

there were many more contradictions found in the article :

ejercito contradictions

ejercito is very much swimming in contradictions in that article that it almost made us dizzy. at first we thought maybe the dizziness was caused by a poorly written news article. that has happened before. but after reading the article at least three times, we thought the dizziness was not being caused by poor newspaper article writing, it was ejercito himself that was causing it with the contradictions he was dishing out in rapid succession.

this is bad news for ejercito from a marketing and advertising standpoint – an identity crisis is always not  a good thing to have in winning election campaigns. before consumers or in this case voters make a choice, they need to first know who the candidate is. ejercito seem to be using two sets of names, estrada and ejercito in different occasions and media which may put voters confused and unable to pin down who exactly is ejercito.

this identity crisis on its own is bad news but pair that with swimming in contradictions and it can be well, drowning to death. ejercito is obviously unable to adequately explain or give a good reason for the change in name.

half of ejercito thinks the name change is a good thing while the other half thinks its a bad thing, hence he goes to one end to the other like a pendulum gone crazy. ejercito seems to have one of his foot step on the other in every explanation he gives. we find it strange that senatoriable ejercito gives both good and bad things in the change of his name in the same interview.

we think poor or weak brand identification is one of the key reasons why UNA senatoriables suffered dramatic losses in rank and rating in the last SWS senatoriables poll.

(read here : dramatic drops for UNA & dramatic increases for Team PNoy in february SWS sentatoriables survey)

is jv ejercito following in the footsteps of UNA?

(note : jv ejercito is one of the top losers in rank and rating in the last SWS senatoriables poll)

ejercito PDI

(note : knowing PDI editors, we think the contradictory headline was intentionally written by them.)

read in full here : http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/371355/estradas-son-jv-wants-to-be-his-own-man

with 47% of voters not completing 12 senatoriables, dynasty candidates & re-electionists enter top 12

March 3, 2013 Leave a comment

source : http://www.sws.org.ph/

based on this SWS 2013 Senatorables survey – 47% of voters cannot complete all 12 senatoriables while an equal number, 47% can complete all 12. (balance 6% are undecided or made invalid markings).  on average, all voters will just be able to write down 9 names for the 12 senatoriable slots.

we think 47% unable to complete all 12 is a huge number. what that may are the following :

  • there is not enough 12 “good men” among the 33 senatoriables running for office. most are unworthy of being elected
  • not enough information about the candidates are reaching voters for them to complete the 12. this is just the start of the campaign period, let us hope this will change soon.

although still on the early stages of the campaign, at this point in time, these are the candidates who are benefiting from this situation and are getting better chances at getting elected :

  • dynasty candidates – children, siblings or spouses of elected officials who are running for senator
  • incumbent senators running for reelection  

based on the survey, of the top 12, 6 are candidates for reelection – legarda, escudero, cayetano, pimentel, trillanes and zubiri. we consider zubiri for reelection since he did serve a term in the senate. a large number in the top 12 are dynasty candidates –   villar, binay, ejercito aquino and angara. only 1 senatoriable, poe does not belong to any one of these groups.

the results of this survey would be so different if the 47% who did not complete the 12 spots would complete their list.

dynasty candidates are running on the basis of having the same family name as elected officials, that gives them a built-in advantage of being remembered more easily and have better chances of getting elected. not completing your list of 12 makes that advantage work for them for real.

completing the list of 12, say with names who are not re-electionists or dynasty candidates will have the effect of pushing down the dynasty candidates from the top 12.  

dramatic drops for UNA & dramatic increases for Team PNoy in february SWS sentatoriables survey

February 28, 2013 2 comments

the latest february 2013 SWS survey, on the 2013 senatoriables is characterized by dramatic drops and dramatic increases in rankings and/or ratings by some senatoriables. the dramatic drops are  all on UNA senatoriables while the dramatic increases were  on Team PNoy senatoriables.

this survey results are grim and bad news for many UNA senatoriables and for the whole party and great news for  Team PNoy and  specific senatoriables.

this is how bad it is for the UNA senatoriables :

  • 9 out of the top 12 senatoriables belong to the admin PNoy coalition with the UNA opposition getting only 3
  • 3 UNA senatoriables dropped out of the top 12 while 2 from  Team PNoy barged into the top 12
  • 6 out 12 Team PNoy senatoriables gained in rank (aquino, poe, villar, madrigal, trillanes and angara), 6 stayed the same (cayetano, escudero, hontiveros, legarda, magsaysay r, pimentel)
  • 6 out of 9 UNA senatoriables declined in rank (honasan, ejercito, enrile, gordon, maceda, zubiri), only 2 gained (binay, magsaysay)  while 1 stayed the same (cojuangco)

SWS PNoy Rank

SWS UNA Rank

  • 5 in 12 of the Team PNoy senatoriables gained in ratings (aquino, madrigal, poe, trillanes, villar), 4 stayed (angara, escudero, hontiveros, pimentel) while only 3 lost cayetano, legarda, magsaysay r). these three losses were minimal with 2 losing only 1 percentage point while the 3rd lost 2 percentage points
  • on the other hand, 7 out of 9 senatoriables of UNA lost ratings (cojuangco, ejercito, enrile, gordon, honasan, maceda, zubiri), 1 the same (magsaysay m)  and only 1 gained (binay).
  • most of the dramatic loses in rankings and/or ratings were suffered by the UNA senatoriables – jv ejercito, migz zubiri, jack enrile, gringo honasan and ernie maceda
  • consequently, most of the dramatic gains in ranking and ratings were gained by Team PNoy senatoriables – grace poe, bam aquino, jamby madrigal and cynthia villar
  • no changes occurred for UNA bottom dweller mitos magsaysay, tingting cojuangco and ernie maceda

sws PNoy Rating

sws UNA Rating

what can explain the dramatic loses by the UNA senatoriables?

we think its a brand positioning blunder by UNA. we read it first from statements from mitos magsaysay where she said UNA wanted “aquino to succeed” and that their role is to give “constructive criticism”. (read here: malacanang delivers THE BOMB on senatoriable mitos magsaysay)

a few days after that, jv ejercito basically said the same thing, plus the UNA spokesman. some of them even said UNA was not necessarily an opposition party. instead of saying they are an opposition party, they were saying things like they will be “fiscalizers”. why then would voters favor UNA when the president himself has his own set of senatoriables?

these were very confusing statements by the UNA senatoriables and the UNA party. people must have wondered  if UNA was not the opposition party, what are they then? that can mean they are part of the administration. if they are part of the administration, why do they have competing senatoriables to that of the admin party?

this was a very basic and fundamental blunder by UNA. instead of differentiating  themselves against Team PNoy, they were actually making themselves similar to their opponents. two of the key elements of brand building is uniqueness and differentiation versus competition. instead of achieving those, they were actually making themselves similar. the result is UNA’s brand positioning became invisible in the eyes of the voters. being invisible allows the voters to only see Team PNoy.

Team PNoy released their TV ads soon after. statements by jv ejercito and the UNA party in reaction to the TV ad did not help the party either and made it worst for them.

Ejercito explained where UNA stands when it comes to the Aquino administration. They support his platform of good governance but they want to keep the Senate as an independent institution to keep the administration in check.

“We admit that the President is very popular. We have supported the President on his thrust for good governance. But sometimes when you are too popular, you do not know anymore the pulse of the people,” he said.

http://www.rappler.com/nation/21139-jv-ejercito-to-team-pnoy-why-the-impostor-tag

ejercito’s words explain the problem UNA created for  themselves. he did say the party supports aquino in his platform of good governance. aquino was elected by a landslide vote and continue to be the country’s most popular president on the basis of a good governance election promise and actions during his term. ejercito simply acknowledged aquino is doing well which we think to many voters would mean they should favor the senators aquino is supporting.

UNA was not defining themselves in the mind of the voters. what they were doing instead was propping up even more an already popular president and this president has his own list of senatoriables.

in marketing and advertising, you never talk about your competition, you talk about yourself and how good you are and what you can do that competition cannot. if you talk about competition, you do so only to show their weakness or failure. in this case UNA was not even mentioning any failure or weakness of aquino or Team PNoy. ejercito even praised the achievements and strengths of aquino.

UNA’s blunder is not just very bad brand positioning, we think its really a detrimental strategic blunder. we are guessing that they did research and found out that noynoy aquino is a very popular president and that noynoy aquino is the strongest endorser in philippine politics bar none.

UNA was unable to figure what they can do to counter this high popularity of noynoy aquino. we think their biggest error is thinking that since aquino is very popular, they should not go against him. and that thinking is very much like giving up on the election even before it started.

 this kind of results in the surveys with the kind of competition and smarts or lack of smarts by UNA is not surprising. Team PNoy must be very pleased with the way UNA is handling their campaign.

—-

source of SWS survey :    http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=&title=Team-PNoy-takes-the-lead-in-latest-SWS-BW-poll&id=66397#

Team PNoy takes the lead in latest SWS-BW poll

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