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jejomar binay on a miracle ride, ties mar roxas in May 2010 SWS survey

May 6, 2010 1 comment

where did all of this come from? what just happened?

those are the exact questions we asked ourselves when we read the news. we saw the rise of binay in the polls, but we did not expect his meteoric rise in the polls. we don’r remember seeing new tv ads or new statements made by binay to explain the movements on binay’s ratings.  we thought it was just a halo effect coming from the rise of estrada in the polls.

for sure, the fall of loren legarda has a lot to do on this one. together with manny villar, loren legarda has been showing weak ratings. we think the supporters of legarda are abandoning him and binay is the beneficiary of that movement, not roxas.

now we have a real competition in the VP race. it will be an interesting run until election day.

Binay ties Roxas; Noynoy widens lead in new SWS survey

The vice presidential race continued to heat up as the elections draw nearer, with Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay tying Senator Manuel Roxas II, who previously dominated pre-election surveys.

In the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last May 2 to 3, Binay and Roxas received a voting preference of 37 percent each. The results were posted on Thursday by television personality Kris Aquino-Yap on her official Twitter account.

Kris is the youngest sister of presidential front runner Sen. Benigno Aquino III.

The survey was supposedly commissioned by BusinessWorld. The results are expected to be made public on Friday. BusinessWorld refused to comment on the matter, even as sources from the Aquino camp confirmed the results.

Roxas’ rating was two points lower, while Binay picked up 12 points from the poll conducted last April. [See: Roxas rating drops as Binay’s picks up]

Sen. Loren Legarda, who previously ranked second, dropped by 12 points to score 12 percent.

In the presidential derby, meanwhile, Aquino has widened further his lead, getting 42 percent.

Former President Joseph Estrada, who obtained 20 percent, zoomed past former second placer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., who received a 19-percent voting preference.

Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. scored 9 points. — LBG, GMANews.TV

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/190239/binay-ties-roxas-noynoy-widens-lead-in-new-sws-survey


jejomar binay surges to 2nd spot in april pulse asia survey

April 29, 2010 3 comments

SWS-Business World poll: jejomar binay’s phenomenal rise to 2nd makes him a contender in VP race

April 26, 2010 1 comment

looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.

the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.

that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time.  unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.

the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.

we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.

pulse asia march 2010 vice-presidentiable survey – mar roxas dominates, binay surges up

April 21, 2010 Leave a comment

mar roxas continues to dominate, with 43%  maintaining a wide margin versus loren legarda who is a far second at 23%, almost one half of roxas’ rating. legarda’s deteriorating rating seem to mirror the same trend her presidential partner manny villar is experiencing in the poll.

there is a huge difference in quality of ads between the legarda and roxas ad campaigns.  legarda runs this melodramatic, slow and boring tv ads with weak to nowhere strategy versus mar roxas, uplifting, engaging and very real tv ads.  when you see legarda’s tv ads – you feel like crying but you do not know if you want to cry because of her meaningless message and flat line tone of the ads or out of pity that she is running such crappy tv ads. it is hard to imagine what possessed her to run such ads.

the other news here is the surge of jejomar binay who gained +4% points. this maybe due to the wider exposure he has been getting through the numerous sorties they have been doing around the country.

mar roxas’ “sacrifice” tvc

January 12, 2010 2 comments

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog

pulse asia december 2009 vice-presidentiables poll – mar roxas and loren legarda a virtual tie

December 22, 2009 10 comments

mar roxas and loren legarda are on a virtual tie in this poll. this is a much harder read and a more interesting one. while their national totals are on a virtual tie, how they got there are very different.

roxas’ strengths are NCR and visayas which are legarda’s weaknesses. legarda’s strength is luzon while that is roxas’ weakness. there seem to be a clear divide among the voters for both of them in specific areas. it would be interesting to know what the explanations are for the disparities.

there is also a clear disparity between the two on socio-eco class. mar roxas’ strength is at the NCR while it is legarda’s weakness.

official comelec list of candidates – Nicanor Perlas removed as official candidate for president

December 15, 2009 Leave a comment

just got this from abs-cbn’s tv patrol world – nicanor perlas was not included as official candidate for president by the comelec.

Included in the list of official presidential candidates are: (8 out of 99)
1. Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III
2. Olongapo City Councilor Juan Carlos “JC” de los Reyes.
3. Former president Joseph Estrada
4. Sen. Richard Gordon
5. Sen. Ana Maria Consuelo “Jamby” Madrigal
6. Former defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro
7. Sen. Manuel Villar
8. Bro. Eddie Villanueva

For vice-president, the candidates approved by Comelec are: (8 out of 20)
1. Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay
2. Ang Kapatiran bet Dominador Chipeco Jr.
3. Former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando
4. Sen. Loren Legarda
5. Actor Edu Manzano
6. Sen. Manuel Roxas
7. Journalist Jay Sonza
8. Former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Perfecto Yasay Jr.

For senator, the candidates approved by the poll body are: (58 out of 158)
1. Nereus Acosta Jr. – LP
2. Sharuff Ibrahim Albani – KBL
3. Zafrullah Alonto – Bangon Pilipinas
4. Ana Theresia Baraquel – LP
5. Jv Larion Bautista – PMP
6. Martin Bautista – LP
7. Silvestre Bello III – Lakas Kampi Cmd
8. Rozzano Rufino Biazon – LP
9. Bong Revilla – Lakas Kampi Cmd
10. Henry Caunan – PDP Laban
11. Pia Cayetano – NP
12. Rizalito David – Ang Kapatiran
13. Joey De Venecia – PMP
14. Miriam Defensor Santiago – People’s Reform Party
15. Franklin Drilon – LP
16. Juan Ponce Enrile – PMP
17. Jinggoy Estrada – Pmpt
18. Ramon Guico – Lakas Kami Cmd
19. Teofisto Guingona III – LP
20. Jo Aurea Imbong – Ang Kapatiran
21. Kata Inocencio – Bangon Pilipinas
22. Alexander Lacson – LP
23. Raul Lambino – Lakas Kampi Cmd
24. Rey Langit – Lakas Kampi Cmd
25. Yasmin Lao – LP
26. Lito Lapid – Lakas Kampi Command
27. Alma Lood – KBL
28. Apolinario Lozada – PMP
29. Regalado Maambong – KBL
30. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr – NP
31. Liza Maza – Independent
32. Ma Judea Millora – KBL
33. Ramon Mitra – NP
34. Ramoncito Ocampo – Bangon Pilipinas
35. Satur Ocampo – Bayan Muna Party
36. Susan Ople – NP
37. Sergio Osmeña III – Independent
38. Jovito Palparan Jr. – Independent
39. Imelda Papin – KBL
40. Zosimo Paredes – Ang Kapatiran
41. Gwendolyn Pimentel – PDP Laban
42. Rodolfo Plaza – NPC
43. Reynaldo Princesa – Bangon Pilipinas
44. Ariel Querubin – NP
45. Ralph Recto – LP
46. Gilbert Remulla – NP
47. Ma. Gracia Riñoza-Plazo – Ang Kapatiran
48. Sonia Roco – LP
49. Adrian Sison – Ang Kapatiran
50. Vicente Sotto III – NPC
51. Adel Tamano – NP
52. Reginald Tamayo – Ang Kapatiran
53. Hector Tarrazona – Ang Kapatiran
54. Francisco Tatad – Grand Alliance For Democracy/Gabaybayan
55. Alexander Tinsay – Bangon Pilipinas
56. Manuel Valdehuesa Jr. – Ang Kapatiran
57. Hector Villanueva – KBL
58. Israel Virgines – Bangon Pilipinas

source: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/12…ential-vp-bets

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