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the curious case of gilbert teodoro cutting ad spending

March 18, 2010 Leave a comment

at the start of official campaign period, gilbert teodoro cut his ad spending to almost zero to only P60T while previous period, he spent a total of P407M, second highest spending to villar’s top spending. (read here : presidentiables spend P2B on advertising. top spenders – villar 1st, teodoro 2nd and aquino 3rd)

we do not understand this move.

teodoro’s poll ratings have been stagnant within the 5% to 7% range since last year. it has not shown any improvement and has kept him at a far 4th with now villar moving up to tie aquino at top place and estrada moving up as well.

with ratings like these, the thing to do is change the ads and increase spending behind it. teodoro has done the exact opposite. he has been going through the provincial rounds but that cannnot compensate for mass media advertising. cutting down on ad spending in this scenario will only see teodoro’s ratings remain the same low 4th to further decline.

makes us wonder:

  • is teodoro  not in this campaign to win this  election?
  • true to previous “complaints” and pronouncements by himself and edu manzano – their political party lakas-kampi-cmmd has ran out of funds? at the start of the campaign??
  • they adapting a miracle strategy where they will do a blitz at the end of the campaign?

need to call oliver stone…..

Teodoro cuts spending on political ads, but not Villar
by Lira Dalangin-Fernandez

INQUIRER.net
First Posted 15:07:00 03/04/2010

MANILA, Philippines – (UPDATE) Presidential candidate and Senator Manuel Villar continues to be the biggest spender of political advertisements at the start of the campaign period last month, already spending some P120 million, according to an advocacy group, citing figures from a media research firm.

In data by AGB Nielsen Media Research from February 9, the start of the official campaign period, until March 2, Villar remained number one among the top five candidates in the presidential race, shelling out P120, 411,093 for 195 minutes of airtime, according to Libertas in its forum Pera’t Pulitika (Money and Politics) Thursday.

Former president Joseph Estrada is second with P88 million for 128.50 minutes, followed by Senator Benigno Aquino III with P87 million for 180 minutes. Senator Richard Gordon is at fourth with P67.3 million for 144 minutes, and in fifth place is administration standard bearer Gilbert Teodoro with P60,480 for 1.5 minutes of airtime, the research firm was quoted as saying.

Among the five candidates, it was Teodoro who considerably cut down on his spending on political ads based on data also from AGB Nielsen, which ranked him second behind Villar, spending P407 million during the pre-campaign months from Nov. 1, 2009 to Jan. 31, 2010. Villar spent P1 billion during the same period.

Read more…

are the ingredients of a gilbert teodoro presidency already in place?

March 18, 2010 Leave a comment

these are the things that have happened in the past weeks:

  • automated election failure – this has been on a roller coaster ride – from it being done to it will not be done to it will not be done to it will be done and back. we are all confused on this one. we seem to get a different prognosis almost every 4 days as somebody discovers a new kink, then denied or all of a sudden fixed by the COMELEC. the confusion even comes from the COMELEC itself. there has been a never ending laundry list of issues – from machines, to delivery dates, ballot design, ballot printing, teachers training to almost everything and anything that concerns it. what we are being told here at the very least is that it is not dependable and there are many things that can go wrong. we have been given a preview of what might be pointed out as what caused the problem after the election.
  • overstated number of registered voters, multiple registrations – the most recent is the number of voters registered – they are inflated due to multiple registrations by the same person. the numbers are so staggering that they can change the election results in a close election which it appears it will be.
  • power supply and brownouts – this is another that is on a roller coaster ride.  months ago we were told there will be no problem with brownouts during the election, we have enough power supply, el nino happened and that took us to being told it will be no problem still to there is a problem, then rotating brownouts to no rotating brownouts then back. do we have enough power supply or not? we don’t know. we might, we might not have., just like the number of times they have changed their pronouncements on rotating brownouts in metro manila.
  • appointment of new AFP chief –  this one seem to be both controversial and expected. controversial as some deserving generals have been bypassed by the appointment of the new AFP chief. expected as the newly appointed AFP chief is a known to be an avid supporter of the president. the president is the adapted member of the PMA class of the  new AFP chief. also, many of the officers coming from this class have been appointed to key military positions.
  • appointment of new supreme court chief justice –  just yesterday, the supreme court has ruled that arroyo can appoint the next SC chief even though there has been a precedent where it was not allowed by the SC and the constitution clearly states it in actuality and intent that it is not allowed.
  • gilbert teodoro, lakas-kampi-cmd standard bearer suspicious’ drop in ad spending – teodoro has been suffering in all major nationwide polls so far since last year until the latest. the most that teodoro could do is in the 5% to 7% range and always on the 4th place while there have been aggressive movements among the top 3. aquino’s ratings are falling while villar has been moving up and now statistically tied with aquino. estrada has been moving up who is on third. teodoro’s ratings are stagnant despite ad spending that was the 2nd highest to villar’s top spending. (read: presidentiables spend P2B on advertising. top spenders – villar 1st, teodoro 2nd and aquino 3rd) performance in the polls is so poor that officers of his own political party  have expressed their anxiety on it with some already anticipating a teodoro loss in the election (read: teodoro set to lose election – teodoro’s own LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party. giving up on teodoro too soon?). with that performance, we find it alarming, also confused that teodoro during the last month media spending tracking had spent practically nothing in tv ads at a mere P64T only. this a most unusual thing to do. you are down at the polls, you do not cut on advertising, you do the opposite – you increase in ad spending. the main candidates, villar, aquino and estrada have sustained  ad spending.

putting all the above together, this is a possible scenario, courtesy of  oliver stone a famous hollywood  director for conspiracy theory movies : the comelec will declare the major candidates villar, aquino and estrada as disqualified from the election due to violating the law on election ad spending, declaring the 4th placer, gilbert teodoro as winner.

that comelec decision is well protected with the chief justice of the supreme court appointed by arroyo and the AFP  chief  protecting arroyo.

Asked why he thought Teodoro spent almost zero for TV ads in the first weeks of the campaign, Cadiz surmised that the Lakas-Kampi standard-bearer was playing on the safe side of the law.

“He is a lawyer; he knows the campaign limit spending, so he just wants to comply…so he’ll not be charged with any offense. But we don’t know what his campaign strategy is,” Cadiz said.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100304-256616/Teodoro-lowest-spender-of-political-ads

the other components like the automated election problems, the brownouts and the overstated number of voters are options that may be availed of. these in themselves are there to already create doubts on the election.

someone call oliver stone, quick!

presidentiables spend P2B on advertising. top spenders – villar 1st, teodoro 2nd and aquino 3rd

February 20, 2010 8 comments

The former defense secretary had poured P407 million into campaign ads, according to an ABS-CBN report quoting the AGB Nielsen Media Research.

This had made him the second biggest spender so far in the May presidential race after billionaire Sen. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party, who had spent P1 billion, the report said.

The Liberal Party’s Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III was third (P268 million), followed by Sen. Richard Gordon (P244 million), Bro. Eddie Villanueva (P90 million), and deposed President Joseph Estrada (P84 million).

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100220-254251/No-2-ad-spender-Teodoro-vows-to-finish-fight

summary of spending:

  1. Manny Villar – P1,000 M, 48%
  2. Gilbert Teodoro – P 407M, 19%
  3. Noynoy Aquino – P 268 M, 13%
  4. Richard Gordon – P 244 M, 12%
  5. Eddie Villanueva – P 90 M, 4%
  6. Erap Estrada – P 84 M, 4%
  7. Grand total – P2,093 M

we do not know what period is covered by this ABS-CBN report. the article does not say it and we are unable to find the source data AGB Nielsen Media Research.

we were surprised that teodoro is second at 19%. no surprise in that villar came in first with almost half of the total ad spending. we were expecting aquino will be 2nd but in this report comes in at 3rd.

villar must have spent a lot more than this amount on total spending. he has been going around the provinces extensively and in these trips he brings along his celebrity endorsers. that alone costs a lot of money. villar also has a lot of other activities in the internet and other available media.

it is a very expensive election campaign.

here are some points:

  • villar has gotten the most out of his ad spending. it has pushed him to a statistical tie with aquino at the polls. this is money well spent. kudos!
  • teodoro has wasted his advertising money with 2nd highest spending but got a measly 4% and 5% at the polls with hardly any movement up. this may mean teodoro has lousy ads or he is a lousy product. we think it is both. poll details are showing teodoro is unable to get supporters across the board, among all socio-eco classes and ages.
  • aquino’s ad spending needs to be reviewed. in fact they need to review his whole advertising campaign – from strategies to execution. with aquino now at a statistical tie and his ratings degrading, it means he may not be spending enough or he has bad ads. we think its both. aquino is an excellent product, its the advertising that is lousy.
  • richard gordon is getting nothing from his ad spending, his ratings remain at very low single digits. to win or to just be a factor in this election, he needs to spend more and release more ads.
  • at first glance, estrada is getting a lot out of his ads. he is 3rd in the polls but last in the spending. we think his poll showing is not due to his ads. they are bad ads. we think estrada’s poll achievement of being 3rd is a cary over effect from his previous glory days.
  • villanueva has completely wasted his ad money. continuing to be at the low levels in the poll says he needs to do more and to change his ads.   
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