Archive

Posts Tagged ‘#2016Vote’

a new era in Philippine political advertising – full blown attack ads vs Binay and Mar Roxas’ mini-attack ads

February 1, 2016 Leave a comment

a new era in Philippine political advertising was opened up last night with the airing of three (3) full blown attack ads against presdientiable Jojo Binay aired at last night’s Kapuso Mo Jessica Soho TV show at GMA 7.

we’re still looking for copies of the vsBinay attack ads on the internet but this is what we remember the ads to be:

  • all three (3) ads are talking heads
  • 2 of the ads have 2 males and the third ad had a female talking head
  • all three looked like ordinary folks
  •  first ad aired started with “Boss Binay…” then the ad enumerates the various corruption charges related to Makati buildings
  • second ad talks about the numerous bank accounts Binay allegedly have. supers highlight the number of bank accounts and the total in the accounts, “P11 Billion”
  • third ad started with “Boss Binay…” then talks about Hacienda Binay
  • all the ads end with the talking heads asking to answer the allegations featured in the ad

these are full blown attack ads – they refer to only one candidate, even calls out Binay directly and focusses on the corruption allegations that have been made on Binay. the intent of the ad is to remind people of the negatives on Binay. focussed on that, the ad does not mention who the ad is from and who the audience should vote for. it does not build up a candidate, it aims to destroy one. the aim of the ad is to make Binay supporters drop Binay and choose another candidate. Binay in the most recent SWS survey has catapulted back to the number 1 spot.

who produced and aired the vsBinay attack ads? that is not identified in the ads. the ending supers of the ads just says “this is a paid advertisement”. in the US attack ads identify from whom the ad is from where at the ending of the attack ad says “i am (name of candidate) and i approve this ad” with a picture of the candidate who released the ad.

we think and this is just based on speculation on our part, the vsBinay attack ads may have come from the Roxas campaign. the media placements on the TV show seem to point to that. the vsBinay attack ads were aired very close to the Roxas ads that were aired on the show. media buys are done in clusters where ads from the same group are aired within the same program. no Binay was aired at the Jessica Soho TV show, only the Roxas ads were aired.

also and this could be competing reason enough to believe the Roxas campaign aired the vsBinay attack ads – it is Roxas who stands to gain the most in bringing down Binay in the surveys. Binay just climbed to the number 1 spot while Roxas has been languishing on the 4th spot. that is a dismal performance considering that there are only 5 presidentiables.

we think the Binay team should be in serious meetings since last night strategizing and knocking their heads on how to respond to the attack ads. they have several choices :

  1. complain to media about the attack ads
  2. answer the ads though a press conference
  3. have the ads banned from the air
  4. launch their own attack ads against Roxas

we think for sure they will do #1. they will do that today. and probably do #2 too. the Binay team complains a lot and they do these things on a regular basis.

#3 for sure they will do and as of this writing the ad agency must be writing a complaint letter to the Philippine Ad Board (this goes by another name now). the Philippine Ad Board is a self-regulatory body put up by the Philippine advertising industry where all ads pass through and are given approval to air, print or release. TV stations require an approval slip before they are aired on media.

the Ad Board has very specific and exhaustive guidelines as to what can be aired and not aired on Philippine media. all advertisers and ad agencies follow these guidelines.

competing clients and their ad agencies can petition the Ad Board to have an ad removed from the air. the Binay Team will most likely attempt to do this today. it would be a nice effort, but i do not think the Ad Board will agree to ban the ads. the Binay Team does not have any basis for having the attack ads banned. but they can always try.

my guess is that if the Binay Team is denied in its complaint to ban the attack ads, they will probably make a stink of it in media or take the Roxas Team to court. it will be an interesting time for Philippine advertising.

let’s step back a little first.

these three vsBinay attack ads follow the mini-attack ads Mar Roxas aired a few days ago. in fact, we also saw a new second mini-attack ad by Mar Roxas last night.

the mini-attack ads aired by Roxas is a talking head of Mar Roxas talking to the audience about who he is and what he will do. his topics are the negatives of his opponents and aims to convince the audience that he will not be like his opponents.

the Roxas mini-attack ad aired last night follows the first one aired by the Roxas campaign last January 26, 2015 (click here to read : Mar Roxas campaign airs a mini attack ad). the first mini-attack ad was against Binay, it ended with Roxas saying “hindi ako magnanakaw” while the second mini-attack ad was against presidentiable Rody Duterte.

note : we are trying to get copies of the ads and will post them here when available.

a day after  the first Roxas mini-attack ad was aired, we posted this on January 27, 2915 (3:20 pm) over Twitter (@wawam) :

IMG_3623

then an updated version was posted on January 28, 2016 (9:41 am) :

IMG_3626

the attack ads that the Roxas campaign aired were not the type that we think would work best for Roxas. we thought Roxas needed to air more hard working (i.e. hard hitting) attack ads. nastier ones that would cut like a knife on his opponents. and for his campaign to do that, we thought it should be from the Liberal Party or the senators. we were thinking of omnibus ads from the Liberal Party or all the LP senatorial candidates could handle the nasty attack ads.

having said that, the mini-attack ads Roxas aired is still a good step in the right direction. the good thing about them is that they replace the boring and to us quite ineffective TV ads Roxas has been airing since last year.

Philippine political advertising has been changed by the attack ads. i think it has taken it to a different and higher level of sophistication. attack ads on its own are tricky ads to do and this is the first time that attack ads are being done in the Philippines. it is tricky because it can go overboard and can backfire if not done right.

being new, the Philippine audience or voters will need to adjust and learn to take them in. the Philippine audience until last night have only been exposed to  positive ads about their candidates. these ads now talk about negatives about candidates and that will take some adjustment in understanding and specially accepting them.

with this change, the 2016 election will be one for the books. it will make history and change things for the future.

or we can conclude that  the 2016 election is one heck of a nasty election.

Mar Roxas campaign airs a mini attack ad

January 26, 2016 Leave a comment

note : we are still looking for ways to post the video here. we will post it here once we are able to find a way to do it. 

just tonight, the Mar Roxas campaign aired what i can call a mini attack ad, a small version of the attack ad that i was tweeting about in the afternoon today.

we would have done a more aggressive and a definitively hard hitting attack ad than the one Roxas aired. and because it would be hard hitting, it would be best done by the Liberal Party and the LP senatoriables which is called an omnibus attack ad.

but it is an ad in the right direction. it is an ad better than what Roxas has aired previously and the times and situation that Roxas is in calls for such an ad.

 

Mar Roxas for the win – launch attack ads

January 26, 2016 Leave a comment

this afternoon, we posted these on twitter :

IMG_3613

we didn’t think the Mar Roxas campaign is doing well. in fact we think it is doing badly. we have the numbers on our side – Mar Roxas’ ratings in the surveys are flat at best and more importantly a slight decline in ranking.

while Roxas’ results  are flat and slightly declining, his key opponents Jejomar Binay and Rody Duterte are surging upwards.

the most impressive of the two is Binay who not only recovered but reversed his declining trend to a surge that has placed him at the top. that is a reversal in fortune in a most dramatic way.

Duterte who was a late entry into the race saw his numbers rise up to a competitive ranking in the surveys,

Binay zoomed up on the basis of his “nognog” ad campaign which he started to air a few weeks ago. Duterte has aired ads but his strength is on his positioning of tough on crime.

Roxas on the other hand aired forgettable TV ads based on “Daang Matuwid” which we thought was close to being boring and did not make any remarkable impression for Roxas.

we thought Roxas’ anemic TV ads is costing him the election. Roxas’ numbers remained flat behind these campaigns.

we thought attack ads would do Roxas well. actually, more than building Roxas, it will stop the rise of his opponents. Roxas’ opponents are clearly on an upward trend and that trend needed to be stopped. the attack ads will do that.

we also posted this chart:

IMG_3616

the chart defines in broad, general terms the compass direction that the Roxas campaign should take.

we think Mar Roxas is the most qualified and most deserving among the presidentiables but that is not reflected in the results from the surveys. and we think that is being caused by the misplaced and weak marketing and advertising strategies and executions they have been airing.

the attack ads would be a great step in the right direction.

Leni Robredo’s trek to the vice president position : part 1

January 13, 2016 Leave a comment

thank you to blogwatch.ph (@blogwatchdotph) for inviting us to sit in during the session with LP’s vice presidentiable Leni Robredo.

there is something to be said about Leni Robredo, a vice presidentiable who gives her time to a group of bloggers and netizens to talk about issues and allow them to know who she is as a candidate and as a person.

and Leni Robredo needs the exposure. last october 19, 2015, we wrote in this blog (tittle : 2 things Leni Robredo should do to win) that to win, she needs to address her low awareness on a national level. Robredo is known in Naga and to a certain degree in Metro Manila. but with her experience and work concentrated on a local level at Naga, she is hardly known nationally specially when compared to her competitors in the vice-presidential race who are all nationally elected senators. they all have a national political base and are known on a national level.

this meeting with the blogwatch.ph will help address the need we identified in October 2015.

excerpts:

survey results notwithstanding, Robredo has 2 huge but very basic marketing things that she needs to do to win:

  1. address low awareness on a national level – robredo may be known in here hometown and to some degree in Metro Manila but she is hardly known in the rest of the country. that is a key issue as the position she is running for is national in scope, she needs the rest of the country to know who she is.
  2. what is the Leni Robredo brand equity or brand positioning? together with the issue of low awareness, Robredo’s other big problem and this can be much bigger than the first is nobody knows what she stands for. what is her brand equity or brand positioning of Robredo?

read: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/2-things-leni-robredo-should-do-to-win/

since October, Robredo has gone to other parts of the country to get to know the people and to allow the people to know her. she has aired some advertising which based onIMG_3550 the monitoring was about P91M in 2015 and places her 11th highest ad spender among the national candidates and 3rd highest among vice-presidentiables. the ad spending may be not much, but it is a move in the right direction.

what is interesting is that during the blogwatch.ph discussion, she admitted she was surprised by the amount of money spent on her TV ads. she said she did not have money to spend for the ads and the money for sure did not come from her. her party, the LP had spent for the ads. according to her, senator bam aquino is the one managing her campaign and would know the details of the ad spending.

honestly, we do not remember what ad she aired during that time. but i remember it was not a remarkable ad. it was forgettable and too run of the mill.

in a scenario where there is very low brand awareness, ads like the one she aired, boring it may be, is a good thing. the ad for sure will add awareness and build some brand equity for her.

however, for whatever brand equity she has gotten from the ads, it is on shaky grounds as a non-remarkable ad that builds an equity means the equity is vulnerable to erosion specially when the other vice presidential candidates start airing their own ads during the campaign  period which started just a few days ago.

the survey results recently released show that Robredo’s campaign is doing very well. it also supports the points we raised on what Robredo needs to win the election – increase awareness and a brand equity definition.

a few days ago, we tweeted that Robredo should aim to get more interviews to get media exposure, for more people to hear and see her. in the times that we have seen her during interviews, we were continually and exponentially  impressed by her. we thought more voters getting this experience, the more she gains supporters.

Screen Shot 2016-01-13 at 11.36.47 AM

the survey results are very good for Robredo. she was on a surge in the latest mid-December poll from SWS. from a very low 7% in September 2014, she gained a +16% points in December 2015, to 19% from 3%. more importantly her ranking jumped to a tie at 2nd with Marcos coming from 5th in September.

the surge in the surveys may have been driven  by the announcement of her candidacy and the endorsement from president Noynoy Aquino and the LP presidentiable Mar Roxas and the media attention given to her after the announcement. in other words, Robredo generated awareness and started to define her brand equity.

IMG_3563

her ratings in the survey has defined her as competitive even when faced with incumbent senators who already have a national standing.

the question is can she sustain this upward trajectory in the coming weeks?

~~~ more to follow ~~~

 

 

 

 

 

is the attack / negative ad against Mar Roxas at YouTube the start of Nega Ads War?

December 3, 2015 2 comments

attack / negative ads are not allowed to be aired in Philippine media by the self-regulating Ad Board of the Philippine advertising industry. that is the reason why we do not see such ads on air.

attack ads are allowed in the US and  they are usually against political candidates. they take the form of exposing or talking about the bad or wrong policy decisions or positions taken by political opponents. negative ads can be done in the US by consumer brands, often by way of side-by-side demonstrations that show one brand outperforms the other and the brands are clearly identified.

this is the first time that we have seen an attack / negative ad in the Philippines. since this is not allowed in Philippine traditional media, this one in the internet at YouTube.

we are now wondering if this attack / negative ad against Mar Roxas will usher in a new era in Philippine elections where attack / ads will be posted in the internet by competing political candidates. there is very little that can be done in terms of regulation on content aired in the internet or even YouTube and that means the possibilities of what kind ads will be posted is limitless, we can see the very worst posted in the internet for everyone to view.

without regulation and the possibilities unlimited, the first casualty will be the truth and fairness. this can be really messy for all, not just the candidates but even for the rest of Filipinos.

this can be start of the Nega Ads War in philippine elections.

new in Philippine elections – negative / attack ad against Mar Roxas

December 3, 2015 1 comment

we saw this TV ad at YouTube as we were looking for Mar Roxas political TV ads. we were surprised, this is the first attack / negative TV ad aired in the Philippines.

 

why is this first? that is because attack / negative ads are not allowed to be aired in the Philippines. and that is probably the reason why this can only be viewed in the internet through YouTube. the TV networks will not allow its airing on their TV stations. so far it has gotten only 13T views since it was posted last November 16, 2015 by a Michael Gierza.

this attack / negative ad against Mar Roxas is a polished ad that can only be written and produced by an ad agency. copy works very well, the production values are not superb but its passable and acceptable. the casting is well done with credible millennials appearing on the TV ad. it is an ad targeted against millennials.

the negative issues being hurled at Mar Roxas are well chosen, these being exactly the problems many of us, not just the millennials have been complaining about  for many months now, these are – heavy traffic, MRT problems and the Yolanda problems that are often blamed on Roxas.  the messages in the ad will resonate among the voters, among all voters who are not living under a rock in the Philippines.

the ad aims to do two (2) things : cast doubt on Mar Roxas and to confirm the negatives that have been talked about to be true. casting doubt on Roxas is potentially powerful and can harm Roxas. once a doubt is cast in the minds of the target audience, they become very easy to completely capture and convert into the opposite side.

the negatives or accusations have been around for many months. the idea is to put them on media so that those seeing the ad will confirm in their minds to be true. personally, i do not think that are true and it is underselling for Roxas to be blamed for those.  and that is how this ad becomes sinister. these are unverified truths, even unexplained in the ads why these are to be blamed on Roxas. but because the ad is out, there will be people who will not question its veracity and just accept them as truth.

the problem with the ad is the question of truth. are these negative issues truthfully attributable to Mar Roxas? i doubt if any one of it will pass the test of truth, there is this thing called “truth in advertising”, right?

Mar Roxas’ marketing and campaign teams should have this removed from the internet / YouTube. this has the potential to hurt Roxas if it gets a lot of views. it has only gotten only 13T views so far, lets see if it gets more after this posting in this blog.

we now wonder how that can be approached and removed from YouTube. YouTube and the internet is NOT governed by the Ad Board, the self-regulating body of the Philippine advertising industry. it has regulatory powers among local media like traditional media – TV, Radio, Print and others but most likely has none on the internet and YouTube.

we have to admit, given the barrier on airing attack / negative ads on Philippine media, putting one on the internet  and YouTube is a smart move.

 

 

 

 

2 things Leni Robredo should do to win

October 19, 2015 2 comments

will leni robredo get a boost after Mar Roxas has announced she is his VP running mate and most specially after president Noynoy Aquino endorsed her candidacy? mar roxas got a tremendous boost when Aquino anointed Roxas – from being a far 4th in the surveys, his ranking jumped to a tie at 2nd or a close 3rd.

robredo is nowhere in the polls – a very far 5th to not registering at all in another. getting her rank within the top 3 means Aquino’s endorsement do have super powers. the next survey results will be very important to Robredo, it will define her as a legitimate candidate.

survey results notwithstanding, Robredo has 2 huge but very basic marketing things that she needs to do to win:

  1. address low awareness on a national level –  robredo may be known in here hometown and to some degree in Metro Manila but she is hardly known in the rest of the country. that is a key issue as the position she is running for is national in scope, she needs the rest of the country to know who she is.
  2. what is the Leni Robredo brand equity or brand positioning? together with the issue of low awareness, Robredo’s other big problem and this can be much bigger than the first is nobody knows what she stands for. what is her brand equity or brand positioning of Robredo?

awareness is the first problem that needs to be solved, the next one is brand positioning. they can be done at the same time. the first can be solved with heavy advertising and heavy exposure to the voters. i would think Robredo needs to be seen and be with the voters every day until election time. her media team ought to be the best among all the candidates to get her in the press.

in many ways that is the easier part than the second one – brand positioning. brand positioning involves defining who she is, differentiating versus the other VP candidates, being preferred over any of them and most specially to appeal to the voters.

those are classic and pretty basic marketing needs but that is very difficult to do in politics. among many other things, in politics, you are given only 1 chance to get it right or at times twice if you get lucky.  in marketing mass consumer products, you get as many times as your budget will allow you and over whatever period of time your P&L can accommodate. no such thing in politics. in politics there is a finite  deadline that will not move and you only get a chance only once – by election day. getting it right the first time will be critical and based on your observations, if you get it right the first time, you will need a rehash or an improvement towards the end of the campaign after your competition has responded to your first effort.

Robredo in some way has started defining her brand equity and this is centered on the use of the tsinelas as core visual and core thinking. we saw on twitter a few of the visuals that expressed that idea which we thought was a very good choice and had very good applications.

IMG_3283

 

IMG_3284

we thought the use of the tsinelas was a very smart idea. not only does everyone know what it is, every Filipino owns at least one pair of  tsinelas. it is what we use at home on a daily basis and for many of us it is the only kind of footwear we own. the population of the philippines is mostly made of the poor, with very little money to even buy food on a daily basis, the tsinelas is the only footwear many could afford to buy.

the tsinelas is an ownable idea and visual – nobody has used it and it was often used by Robredo’s late husband, Jesse. he was known to use his tsinelas to work as mayor in Naga and when he was appointed by Aquino as DILG chief. back in Naga, his constant use of the tsinelas was known as his brand of governance – down to earth, poor-oriented and always being with the people. the tsinelas was the well-loved trademark of Jesse Robredo.

Levi’s use of the tsinelas declares to the voters that just like her husband Jesse, it is also her own brand of governance.

it also helps that the execution of the tsinelas as a visual in her meme materials was excellently done. it is unobtrusive, tastefully done but dominantly catches attention. the yellow color of the tsinelas uses the same color Cory used an her son president Noynoy and the Daang Matuwid group.

CQx46t9UYAAs0vy

this is a good beginning for Robredo but we are hoping this will not end here and that it will evolve to something more substantive in the near future.

she needs to be more substantive than just the tsinelas idea as she is against other candidates who have been on the national stage and wth stronger good or bad credentials. more importantly, she is running for the position of the vice-president, the second highest position in the country and the expectations are much higher than being an HOR rep of a district in the Bicol area.

and she needs to do this quickly, election time is coming. the time is short and she needs to get it across in such a wide area in short period of time. we think she will need very high advertising spending to achieve this.

is robredo up to the challenge of the big time?

 

2016 Vice-Presidentiables Online Poll Now Open

October 19, 2015 Leave a comment

poll opened October 19, 2015

supporters abandon Jejomar Binay in mass exodus

October 2, 2015 Leave a comment

there is no other way to describe what has been happening to presidentiable Jejomar Binay and his presidential campaign – his supporters are abandoning him in what can only be called a mass exodus. this is the PDI headline from the most recent survey from Pulse Asia:

341x600xpage-one-10022015-341x600.jpg.pagespeed.ic.peTdLjfV3a

this is a survey from Pulse Asia on the performance and trust rating of Binay as vice-president. this survey asks the performance and trust ratings of the top officials in the government from the president to the speaker of the house and senate to the chief justice. this is different from the election surveys that Pulse Asia (and SWS) have been conducting.

this survey asks respondents of their sentiments in the way Binay is performing his job as vice-president. people will be responding to that question based on what they think a vice president should be doing. Binay’s run for the president is not mentioned in the question that is being asked here.

the results were devastating for Binay – he took a free fall on trust and performance to his lowest level in the process losing a whopping-15% points from 58% to 43% of his approval rating on his performance of his job.

equally devastating is his trust ratings also nose dived by losing-18% points from 57% to 39%.

620x463xbinay-dive.jpg.pagespeed.ic.y98CJWk9Q4

source : Philippine Daily Inquirer http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/727269/pulse-asia-binay-ratings-dive

those are very dramatic losses that will make any candidate or even a pollster shudder in fear. this means that on this aspect of Binay’s political life, people are very disappointed with him and that he is being abandoned by his supporters. the vice-president position is a very easy position to fulfill – because of the nature of the job, there are very little things to do unlike say the president or even the cabinet secretaries. because of the ease, the vice president in most surveys typically gets a much higher performance and trust rating than the president.

for Jejomar Binay to get a lower rating than Aquino in this survey says a lot about the huge disappointment that people have on Binay.

in a newspaper report, Binay questions the credibility of this survey by saying he has already resigned his cabinet posts when the survey was conducted, wondering what it was the respondents were rating him for his performance and trust.

Binay is mistaken and raises an irrelevant issue – the survey had asked the respondents on his performance and trust as vice president of the country, not as any of the cabinet post he has occupied and resigned from. respondents are measuring him on the basis of what the respondents think is the job and function of the vice president. as vice-president of the country, the respondents have seen his performance and trust dramatically drop.

in recent surveys released previous to this, Binay’s ratings have shown his declining ratings continue to drop. not only that, his ranking has changed from a high 2nd to either being tied by Roxas at 2nd or falling to 3rd/4th position. the ratings of mar roxas, the LP and admin standard bearer has seen his ratings surge up both in terms of numbers and position where he used to be a far 4th to now a tie at 2nd (posted here in this blog).

the questions asked of the respondents here were point blank – who would they elect as president if the elections were held at the time of the survey and who they think is a good leader to replace Aquino as president.

Binay getting declining numbers on these different surveys says a large part of Binay’s supporters are abandoning Binay in a mass exodus. they are abandoning Binay based on different dimensions of the candidate as Binay – on trust and performance as VP, as a good leader to replace Aquino and as presidential candidate. Binay is being looked at from different dimensions by the voters and in all aspects they no longer see Binay as fit.

on their own these are already dramatic and impressive declines. put that further into context, Binay used to be the top on all the surveys just a few months ago. he was all alone on top with no one even close to challenge him. Binay’s standing started to erode when alleged charges of corruption and plunder were revealed at the senate hearings. at the height of the weekly hearings, when it became vey apparent that Binay was mired in multiple corruption charges, Grace Poe a neophyte senator surged up in the surveys .

the voters saw Binay as the evil one based on the alleged charges while they saw Poe as good in an election that quickly got into a question of an election of Good vs Evil.

we have said this before. Binay should recognize what is happening to his candidacy, these survey numbers are real and representing real sentiments. the sentiments are astoundingly consistent from many dimensions. for him to change his fortunes, he needs to wear big boy pants and face the charges that have been made against him. until he does that, the declining trend will not change and continue until the actual 2016 election.

does binay have big boy pants?

 

 

 

 

 

Roxas surges up, jumps from far 4th to tie declining Binay at 2nd – Pulse Asia

September 29, 2015 Leave a comment

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 8.04.32 PM

Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:

  • Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
  • Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
  • Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
  • the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
  • of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
  • in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined

just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.

we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.

the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.

Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.

aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.

the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president  is  the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.

the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.

that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.

as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.

Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.

with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed  against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.

Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.

it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.

when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points.  a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.

for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed.  for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.

based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.

are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?

 

 

 

 

triple whammy for Poe, Roxas & Binay in latest SWS survey, Roxas gains the most

September 23, 2015 1 comment

Screen Shot 2015-09-23 at 12.28.45 PMApparently there is a second survey for the presidentiables from SWS and this one puts presidenitables Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas practically on a there-way tie.

The survey was conducted Septemebr 2 to 5, 2105 and has the following ratings for the three presidentiables :

  • Grace Poe : 26%
  • Jemomar Binay : 24% (difference vs Poe – 2% points) 
  • Mar Roxas : 20% (dofference vs Binay – 4% points)

(source : http://www.rappler.com/nation/politics/elections/2016/106788-sws-survey-breakdown-presidential-tie)

With a margin of error at +/- 3%, Poe and Binay are on a statistical tie while  Roxas  vs Binay with a difference of 4% points is statistically significant but  it being just shy by 1% point, that is considered a statistical tie.

unlike the other SWS survey which was an options survey (respondents were asked to name 3 candidates who can replace Aquino), this is a real elections survey where respondents were asked to identify only 1 candidate who they might vote as president if the elections were held during the time of the survey.

this survey gave a triple whammy to all three presdientiables Poe, Binay and Roxas.

1st whammy – this is the biggest whammy and it is for the benefit of Mar Roxas. mar roxas before this survey was a far third to Poe and Binay. roxas jumping to tie the front runners is a big jump for roxas. this mimics the same kind of giant improvement that Roxas got in the other SWS survey where he got a +18% point improvement catapulting him to 2nd position (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-1W0).

this shows Roxas is a legitimate contender in the election and is on an impressive increasing trend. the increasing trend will serve Roxas well as we move to the actual election in 2016, this means Roxas is building his support base at the same time the support base of Poe and Binay are not moving if not weakening.

2nd whammy – this one hurts Garce Poe. Poe in previous surveys showed she was way ahead of the others and was a clear leader. this survey with two of her rivals catching up with her shows she is not invincible. it says she can be beaten.

3rd whammy – this hurts Jejomar Binay. Binay used to be the runaway winner in the polls but his ratings have been suffering and was on a massive declining trend since the corruption and plunder charges have been exposed in the senate. Binay just getting  a tie with the two others means Binay has not arrested his declining trend and continue to suffer in the polls.

unless Binay changes things, like address the corruption and plunder charges against him, the declining trend will continue and his numbers will shrink significantly by election time. it is possible that the shrinkage will be big enough that the other leaders will overtake him.

Roxas’ ratings have gone up driven by the endorsement of President Aquino for his presidentiable run and Roxas’ declaring that he will continue Aquino’s “Daang Matuwid”. Aquino endorsed Roxas’ presidential run in an event held at Club Filipino on August 30, 2015. Roxas also ran ads almost the next day where he said he will continue Aquino’s “Dang Matuwid”.

Roxas has gained the momentum from this survey and will allow him to enlarge his support base.

Poe will need to work harder to get back her stellar number one position. Let us see if her numbers will improve on the next survey behind her announcement that she will run for president in an event that happened after this survey was conducted.

——–

Question On Methodology & Design For SWS :

we noticed that the two presidentiables surveys, the options survey and this election survey were run on the same time period. did that mean the questions for the these two separate surveys were in one questionnaire and both were asked of the respondents in the same sitting?

if so, was there no order bias in their answers? 

i would think there would be order bias and one or both of the answers of the respondents will be affected by the other. it would be difficult to accept the survey results if there was order bias. 

mon ilagan : how not to be the spokesman of the embattled Jejomar Binay

July 5, 2015 Leave a comment

mon iligan, previously from media who was also a congressman from some district was recently appointed spokesman for presidentiable jejomar binay and as we sometimes read also of UNA. he replaced a long list of previous  spokespersons of binay  – congressman jonvic remulla, congressman toby tango and atty jv bautista.

the way we see it, the previous spokespersons of presidentiable binay screwed up or in the case of remulla, maybe he got tired defending the indefensible  binay. tango appear to have been fired from being binay’s spokesman after the residency issue on grace poe was raised by tiangco which had terribly backfired on binay.

mon ilagan is new to his job. but this early, we think he  committed a grave error in his job as spokesman for the embattled  binay.

this came out on twitter :

IMG_3085

that “release” has a few things that are wrong with it.

an important basic in being a spokesperson – you are one for another person. as a spokesperson, you speak for your principal who in this case is presidentiable binay. when ilagan opens his mouth, he is speaking the words of presidentiable binay. it is like binay himself talking.

the twitter release was not about binay talking, it was mon ilagan talking about himself, what he thinks, not what binay wants the voters to know and not what binay thinks. the release even has ilagan’s role “UNA spokesman”.

more than mon ilagan being a spokesman for himself, the bigger issue we have with the twitter release is its content. ilagan’s press release about what he wants voters to know about his thouhgts has two parts – the first part is how he sees binay, “I believe in Binay’s capabilities as a leader” and the second part “despite the allegations and issues against him”.

being the spokesman and his salary being paid for by binay, the first part is not surprising. the surprising part is the second part.

in the second part, ilagan actually admits binay has problems – “allegations and issues” against binay.   ilagan is referring to the corruption and dishonesty allegations and issues that have stuck on binay. ilagan is probably the first spokesperson who admitted his principal, binay has problems. he is admitting that binay is damaged goods.

that is a very unusual and very wrong thing to say about your principal if you are a spokesperson. ilagan is reminding the people the allegations being raised against binay. he casted doubt on his own principal, the person he is supposed to speak for and promote.

it is a very strange sales pitch – buy this product even though something is wrong with it. we do not think a lot of people will want to buy a product like that.

in this one, mon ilagan, a spokesman for binay fails in his job – for talking about himself and his thoughts rather than putting forward the thoughts of his principal and for admitting something is wrong with the very product that he is selling to the voters.

it’s a WAWAM!

%d bloggers like this: