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Posts Tagged ‘erap estrada’

COMELEC website is down, precinct finder overwhelmed by hits, telephone numbers given

May 10, 2010 4 comments

Comelec website down, hotlines announced

abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 05/10/2010 9:23 AM | Updated as of 05/10/2010 9:25 AM

MANILA, Philippines – Due to the unexpected number of hits on Election Day, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) website has become unavailable for voters and the general public, as of posting time.

“Unfortunately, there are too many people visiting the website now. Obviously, the service is not accessible as we want it to be,” Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said in an interview on ANC Monday morning.

“Traffic to visit the Comelec website was more than what we had anticipated. We doubled the bandwidth. Unfortunately, things happen so we’re taking remedial steps to still allow people to check on the precincts,” he added.

Larrazabal, chairman of the poll automation steering committee, announced that the precinct finder on the Comelec website will be taken out.

Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec. The hotlines are

  • 527-0841
  • 527-2773
  • 527-2772
  • 527-0822
  • 526-7769
  • 526-7770

The Comelec commissioner noted that the bandwidth of the poll body’s website was increased to 10 megabits per second (Mbps) from 5 Mbps.

As for the election results, Larrazabal said the Comelec will release the Uniform Resource Locator (URL) later in the day.

source: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/05/10/10/comelec-website-down-hotlines-announced

the misunderstanding on automated election – not for speed of voting process but for accuracy of counting

May 10, 2010 3 comments

the election is on going in most parts of  the country. the complaints are not on the PCOS machine malfunctioning but on the long wait for voters to get on with the voting. this is frustrating a lot of voters specially now that we experiencing a heat wave.

voters are complaining about the long lines leading to the polling precinct, the inability to quickly confirm the precinct number and the wait to get a ballot and vote. once inside the polling precinct,  it takes the voter anywhere from 6 to 8 minutes from filling up the ballot and getting the PCOS machine.

the long lines are  not being caused by the automated election system that the country is doing for the first time  in its history. unfortunately most people thought that speed in voting is one of the things it is supposed to solve.

automated election was meant to solve accuracy in the counting of the votes, also to a large degree prevent election cheating and speed up the counting process, not speed in voting during the election process. where before it took the country to get election results after several weeks, the automated election  will enable the country to get the results after 2 days at the longest.

what the voters need now is patience, an umbrella and water to drink while in line.

the key reasons why a landslide win is possible for noynoy aquino

May 9, 2010 7 comments

one day before the elections and we are putting our foot down – either to be cut by rampaging train if we are wrong or we start a rampage on our own if we are right.

we this election is for aquino to lose villar to win and estrada to upset his opponents as the dark horse.

we think  given the trends from the polls and the actions aquino and his opponents have executed in the past few days, we think aquino is not set to not just win, but a possibility of a landslide win is in the horizon.

these are the key points why we think a landslide win is now possible for aquino:

  • aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning
  • not once was aquino threatened by any other candidate in the polls
  • his closest opponent, manny villar took drastic declines too close to the election. arresting the decline, recovery from it and reversing the trend is impossible to achieve given the the time available
  • manny villar, aquino’s strongest opponent is now suffering with a declining trend
  • erap estrada gaining in the polls came too late, he no longer has time to build on his momentum. he will fall short of his target.
  • none of aquino’s competitors did anything dramatic to propel themselves to the top or bring down aquino
  • aquino has sustained his stature, no huge scandal has erupted in the last few days
  • aquino’s rating of 42% is formidable given that his closest  rival, villar and estrada are at 20% to 19%, one half of aquino’s rating. that margin is insurmountable given just a few days from survey time to election time. this is not a close election anymore, it is a rout. one more way of appreciating the margin – even if you combine the ratings of his closest rivals, 39%,   aquino’s 42%  will still make him win this election.

the bottom line is that given the above, aquino with just a few days to go in this election has gained a very strong upward momentum while his closest rivals are on a decline trend (villar)  and on a slight  upward trend (estrada) but with no time to reach aquino.

an increasing trend only becomes viable if the leaps are very significant like the way binay is aggressively gaining on roxas. estrada’s upward trend is not as impressive as that of binay.

with just a few hours to go until the poll opens, the aquino campaign has much more to celebrate.

noynoy aquino asks – are you ready to vote?

May 9, 2010 5 comments

why the loren legarda campaign collapsed – the drama queen factor

May 9, 2010 4 comments

loren legarda’s ratings in the poll to begin with was bad,, mar roxas dominating the polls for vice-presidentiables from the very beginning, with mar enjoying double the ratings that legarda was getting.

recent movements in the polls for the vice-presidential race show dramatic changes – with jejomar binay resurgent, roxas softening while legarda collapsing badly. 

what? jejomar binay?  

that is the question most have been asking, binay has not done anything spectacularly different and attention calling in the recent weeks., how did binay manage to now be in the running in the election?

first, it’s the halo effect from a resurgent erap estrada. estrada and binays poll results rose at about the same time. estrada gaining in the polls had a positive effect on binay.

more than that, binay’s poll ratings went up as he gained supporters from the collapse of legarda in the polls. it appears a large part of those who abandoned legarda went to binay and much less to roxas. binay was the biggest beneficiary of the collapse of the legarda campaign.

we think advertising has a lot to do with it as well. from what we have seen, legarda have had a lot more tv ads aired over binay. but a look at the ads of legarda tells us these were ads that she should have not aired at all.

the ads of legarda depicted her as the essential drama queen  with her melodramatic, pa-drama effect delivery of her lines, the slow motion camera movements (or at least that is how it seems) and the ho-hum messages.  the legarda tv ads was just too personal and intimate  – the idea of  loren legarda taking care of everyone, the mother hen who will fix everything.

what makes these ads worst is the way she delivered her lines. she delivered all of them in a hushed, slow paced, tear jerky type of delivery that it makes the whole ad insincere, fake  and we are sure to many very funny. it was just too much on the emotions. or at least a trying hard effect on tugging at the hearts of voters.

we have written about legarda here before the election and we called her the drama queen for keeping us in so much in suspense if first will she run for president, then next as vice-president, then with what political party. in every interview during that time, she kept on the drama of suspending for all of us to watch the number of times she changed her mind and the length of time she needed to decide what to do with here political career.

we think in theses ads legarda simply  carried true what she really is – a drama queen.

1 vote, your vote can get noynoy a landslide win

May 8, 2010 2 comments

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll closed – #1-villanueva; #2-gordon; #3-teodoro; #4-aquino

May 8, 2010 483 comments

several tens of thousands voted in our poll here at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog  Poll which was first opened on december 2, 2009. this is probably one of the most successful internet poll on the 2010 presidentiables given the sheer number of voters.

this was the 2nd presidentiables poll we opened here with the first one including the undeclared but claimed candidates. this poll only includes the official COMELEC list of presidentiables.

we like to thank everyone for viting in the polls and posting your comments her.

on may 10, we will open a new poll – an exit poll. you will be asked to vote the presidentiable you actually voted in the election.

know your candidate better and find out specifics on all the other candidates,  compare them,  click here :

  Read more…

how a landslide win is possible for noynoy aquino

May 8, 2010 4 comments

click here to know your precinct number and confirm you are a registered voter

May 8, 2010 6 comments

please note latest on this one — COMELEC’s precinct finder is down, overwhlemed by hits. they have given hotline numbers to call.

Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec. The hotlines are

  • 527-0841
  • 527-2773
  • 527-2772
  • 527-0822
  • 526-7769

~~wawam~~

try this out,  confirm if you are a registered voter and find your precinct number, click here: http://www.comelec.gov.ph/precinctfinder/precinctfinder.aspx

  • 526-7770
  • dramatic losses in internals for top 3 presidentiables but aquino leads, erap 2nd, villar drops to 3rd – May 2010 SWS-Business World presidentiables survey

    May 7, 2010 4 comments

    the sws-business world may 2-3 poll shows some interesting developments in the internal scores with major changes in them although the over-all outcome did not show any changes.

    noynoy aquino continue to be the front runner but has gained significantly from previous to now 42% from 38%, a 4% point gain. the survey has a 2.2% margin of error.

    erap estrada also gained significantly from previous to now 20% from 17% and overtakes manny villar who suffered a major drop to now 19% from the previous 26%. the significant drop for villar and significant gain for erap has put them now on a statistical tie. although the momentum is on the side of estrada.

    it appears to us villar has not found the correct formula to arrest his declining numbers. we have said previously in this blog that villar’s drop has been caused by the unresolved C-5 corruption scandal, concretized by the Villarroyo name and villar’s move from the side of good to evil in his parties efforts at black propaganda most of which backfired and hurt his campaign instead.

    (read here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/why-manny-villar-will-lose-the-election/)

    the over-all ratings and rankings have not changed  from previous. however, it is noteworthy that aquino’s lead over estrada is dramatic, a +22% lead, more than double than what estrada has. aquino has 42% versus estrada’s 20%.

    the internals of their scores are quite interesting to look at.

    aquino’s NCR ratings grew significantly to 43% from 35% while his socio-eco class rating among the ABC dropped to 44% from 53%. we find that a very unusual movement as most of the ABC class are located in NCR. these ratings seem to be contradicting each other. we wonder if there is a tabulation error in this report.

    estrada’s mindanao rating has gone up dramatically to 30% from 22%.  this is probably driven mostly by estrada’s mindanao-specific tv ad that he has been airing in the past weeks. estrada may have found a very strategic move in this election. he is the only presidentiable who ran mindanao-specific tv ads.

    another notable movement in estrada’s internal scores is his ABC rating which is now 14% from the previous 6%, more than doubling from previous. we wonder if this is related to the question we have posted on the ABC tallies in aquino’s scores.

    villar’s significant drop in over-all rating to 19% from 26% may have been brought about by dramatic deterioration of his ratings in the NCR, from 18% to 10%, a cut of more than half; balance luzon from 25% to 20%, a quarter drop and mindanao , another drop by more than half from 31%  to 15%.  we think these are very alarming deterioration of villar’s ratings.

    significant drops in villar’s ratings occurred across all socio-eco classes, -9% pts in ABC, -7% in D and -10% in E. across the board drops in geography and socio-classes is showing villar supporters are showing fluid movements confirming what we said previously that villar’s supporters are most vulnerable to poaching by other presidentiables.

    these movements should tell the presidentiable campaigns to look into geographic and demographics segmentation to improve their over-all ratings. unfortunately, because it is just a few days before election, there is not much they can do to recover or push their ratings in the direction they want it to be.

    Aquino pads poll lead

    Gap now 22 points; Estrada overtakes Villar

    WITH THE MAY 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.

    The May 2-3 poll, conducted roughly a week before Filipinos troop to the precincts, gave Mr. Aquino the support of 42%, up four points and ahead of former President Joseph “Erap” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masa who was now in second place with three-point gain to 20%.

    Erstwhile second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) was a point behind at 19%, a result within the survey’s error margin of 2.2%. His support was down seven points from the prior BW-SWS poll of April 16-19.

    The gap between the top two was 22 points, wider than the 12 Mr. Aquino enjoyed over Mr. Villar in the last survey.

    source:  http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=10589

     

    ~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~
    carlo arvisu

    May 2010 SWS-BusinessWorld Presidentiables Poll – no change among laggards; teodoro doubles Class E rating

    May 7, 2010 2 comments

    the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change.  their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.

    the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.

    Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.

    Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)

    Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.

    As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.

    (The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)

    The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.

    They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)

    source: http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=10589

    jejomar binay on a miracle ride, ties mar roxas in May 2010 SWS survey

    May 6, 2010 1 comment

    where did all of this come from? what just happened?

    those are the exact questions we asked ourselves when we read the news. we saw the rise of binay in the polls, but we did not expect his meteoric rise in the polls. we don’r remember seeing new tv ads or new statements made by binay to explain the movements on binay’s ratings.  we thought it was just a halo effect coming from the rise of estrada in the polls.

    for sure, the fall of loren legarda has a lot to do on this one. together with manny villar, loren legarda has been showing weak ratings. we think the supporters of legarda are abandoning him and binay is the beneficiary of that movement, not roxas.

    now we have a real competition in the VP race. it will be an interesting run until election day.

    Binay ties Roxas; Noynoy widens lead in new SWS survey

    The vice presidential race continued to heat up as the elections draw nearer, with Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay tying Senator Manuel Roxas II, who previously dominated pre-election surveys.

    In the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last May 2 to 3, Binay and Roxas received a voting preference of 37 percent each. The results were posted on Thursday by television personality Kris Aquino-Yap on her official Twitter account.

    Kris is the youngest sister of presidential front runner Sen. Benigno Aquino III.

    The survey was supposedly commissioned by BusinessWorld. The results are expected to be made public on Friday. BusinessWorld refused to comment on the matter, even as sources from the Aquino camp confirmed the results.

    Roxas’ rating was two points lower, while Binay picked up 12 points from the poll conducted last April. [See: Roxas rating drops as Binay’s picks up]

    Sen. Loren Legarda, who previously ranked second, dropped by 12 points to score 12 percent.

    In the presidential derby, meanwhile, Aquino has widened further his lead, getting 42 percent.

    Former President Joseph Estrada, who obtained 20 percent, zoomed past former second placer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., who received a 19-percent voting preference.

    Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. scored 9 points. — LBG, GMANews.TV

    http://www.gmanews.tv/story/190239/binay-ties-roxas-noynoy-widens-lead-in-new-sws-survey


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