Archive

Posts Tagged ‘how to lose a presidential election’

SWS Presidentiable Poll february 2010 shows clear danger of aquino loss in election

March 12, 2010 1 comment

political polls are always tricky. the nature of political polls is one where change can occur often and rapidly. that comes from the design itself – political polls measures the attitude of the respondents, in this case voters at a given point in time.  current events and the latest developments in the country, in the political arena and most specially among the presidentiables themselves influence the attitude of voters. in other words anything and many things can influence the mind of the voter.

that is when you look at one specific poll result. it becomes a slightly different story when you have several of these poll results, the same question being asked across several points in time. from there you can see a trend.

looking at the SWS presidentiable polls across several polls conducted since early december 2009, it clearly shows the steady decline of the poll ratings of noynoy aquino.

while the decline in the first three polls are negligible being within the margin of error or just about there, the last one in end february is a clear red flag as that is statistically a significant drop from the previous.

while that to some degree may not be as worrisome as he continues to enjoy front runner status, the alarm bells come off when we look at the ratings of the other presidentiables, specifically manny villar. there is a clear upward trend on the ratings of  villar to the point that villar has statistically tied aquino as front runner.

the other thing to consider is erap estrada. we were expecting estrada’s ratings will eventually drop as the campaign period went on but his actual ratings on a trend is the opposite. it has not gone down but it has basically remained at the same level and the recent data shows a slight increase (though not statistically significant).

within the context of a contest to which this presidential race is, at the minimum it shows a picture of aquino losing ground while his opponents are gaining ground.

this seems to indicate that aquino’s supporters are vulnerable to poaching by the other presidentiables. that generally indicates aquino is not doing enough to protect his franchise.

his main opponents on the other hand, villar and estrada have been doing many more things than they used to before the campaign period. most notably villar has had dramatic changes in his ad campaign with a slew of new executions and changes in strategy, including huge and aggressive public meetings.

even estrada has changed his tv ads. from the nostalgic ads he had before, he is now into more specific messages and positioning plus aggressive public meetings.

we also think aquino will lose this election by default – he has not done enough and he did not do anything at the time he was supposed to. we wonder if it is over confidence. we think it is really more of a strategic blunder.

can aquino recover and change the outcome to a win in this election? yes he can. but he needs  to do a lot more than what he has been doing and he needs to get his campaign strategies right.  the first one is easy but we think the second one is not. specially for the aquino campaign. we think poor and weak strategic thinking is the aquino campaign’s greatest weakness. unfortunately, we do not think they know that.

~~  a mindscape landmark – carlo arvisu ~~

teodoro set to lose election – teodoro’s own LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party. giving up on teodoro too soon?

February 27, 2010 1 comment

there is something happening within the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD political party to which gilbert teodoro belongs to –  we are reading noise in the newspapers about several officials of the party openly talking to the press about their discontent and worries on the candidacy of gilbert teodoro. they all seem to be in agreement that teodoro is doing very poorly in this election, that there are things he is doing that is not helping his candidacy and the unsaid words that teodoro is set to lose the 2010 presidential election.

first was senator zubiri’s pronouncement that the opposition is poised to win the 2010 election because teodoro’s campaign never really took off.  he also said this:

“People want change. That is the effect of nine years (in power). That is understandable,” he said in Filipino.

that sounds very much like saying the people are very much tired of president arroyo’s administration and the people can’t wait for her to step down for the new president to take over. it also means teodoro is very much associated with arroyo that the people see the prospect of teodoro being president as just a continuation of arroyo’s presidency.

then there is the statement from another LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party official who said the party is set to hold an emergency executive committee  meeting in march if teodoro’s ratings fail to improve.

that says the executive committee recognize that teodoro’s campaign is suffering now, unable to get itself out of the bottom in the polls. they are worried of a downward spiral and the emergency meeting is meant to arrest this decline.

just recently, another officer of teodoro’s party has talked to the press also saying teodoro’s advertising campaign, the airplane campaign has failed and is to blame for teodoro’s inability to bring his ratings up from the grave. this officer is LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD vice president prospero pichay.

we find that amusing. pichay ran for senator in the last senatorial election and based on media data, he was the top spender in advertising during that election. as we all know now, pichay lost that election.

we find it ironic that this man who spent the most ad money in the last election but failed to win is making such a comment on teodoro’s tv advertising. it is obvious that not being elected despite being the highest spender in that election means pichay lost the election due to bad advertising. did pichay use his advertising smarts that he ddisplayed in the last election to asssess teodoro’s ad campaign?

the common denominators among these three lakas officials are – teodoro is losing the election and his efforts are not helping him if not wrong.

we are shocked that these supposed officials of the party are even talking to the press about their misgivings and teodoro’s failures as a presidential candidate.  for the sake of teodoro, will they not be better off not talking to the press about these things, keep them hush-hush, hold the meeting and change things.  the key there is not talk to the press.

telling these things to the press can be very demoralizing for teodoro’s few supporters to read. we are ssaying they are few based on the poll results where he got at best 5%. teodoro’s supporters already know their candidate is doing poorly in the polls but to read it in the newspapers as said by party officials is a real killer.

we also wonder if the cracks are showing within the ruling party. this is not the first time it has happened. this already happened from the very beginning of the party’s so called process in selecting their standard bearer.

during that time we heard a lot of officers and members of the party openly criticizing party officials for taking a long time to name their standard bearer. there were also loud talks on who they want the party to select as standard bearer and teodoro’s name was not being mentioned during that time.

with all of these happening to gilbert teodoro’s party, we ask the question – with friends and partymates like these, who needs friends and political opponents?

why gilbert teodoro is losing this election, and it’s not just bad advertising

February 26, 2010 1 comment

–this is next in The 2010 Presidentiables Blog–

negative campaign tv ads : gilbert teodoro did it first & what ferdinand marcos & john mccain have in common with gilbert teodoro

February 22, 2010 22 comments

the last time negative advertising was aired in the philippines by politicians was when cory aquino ran against ferdinand marcos in the 80’s, the pre-event to the The People Power EDSA Revolution.

marcos aired ads that depicted cory  as just a “housewife”, saying she does not know anything about running a country. cory of course in truth was just a housewife when she ran against marcos in the election. she did not hold any elective position or any government position before that time. what marcos forgot and the people never did was that cory was the widow of ninoy aquino who was assassinated at the tarmac when he returned home from exile in the US.

a most powerful man in marcos cheating just a housewife in cory in the elections was just too much for the people to take. the people kicked the dictator out of the country and installed the housewife in malacanang.

that negative ad, a first in philippine politics back-fired.

this 2010 election has a kind of negative advertising. this ad was aired by gilbert teodoro.

(read full write up here: gilbert teodoro’s “galing at talino” tv ads – anti-noynoy, anti-humility, generic promises)

in these ads, the announcer voice-over says “dapat lider na hindi lang puso ang alay kung hindi galing at talino“, an obvious reference to noynoy aquino., the expected front runner during the time the ad was first aired.

it is mild and indirect but we do not think anyone missed the reference to aquino. the ad points out aquino’s inadequacy to be president and attempts to discredit the strength of aquino in this campaign.  having  just “puso” was positioned here as not enough or inferior and compared to teodoro’s strength which were enumerated in this ad. the whole ad except for that single line talked about the  credentials of teodoro. it positions teodoro as superior to aquino.

this ad of teodoro is the only political ad in this whole presidential campaign that makes a reference to an opposing candidate and a negative tv ad.

we can’t say for sure that this negative ad of teodoro backfired for him but we do know his ratings at the polls have put him at best 5% while aquino remained the front runner in this election.

we disagree with the way this ad has been done. the attempt at discrediting aquino was too mild and of no consequence in this ad. it’s an ad that is neither here nor there. we think if they really wanted to draw the attention to teodoro’s superiority over noynoy or noynoy’s inferiority to teodoro, they should have gone all the way. doing it in this piecemeal almost forgotten way will not do anything for teodoro but only eat precious seconds. they could have removed that line and the ad would have worked as well. they could have used the freed seconds to add more good qualities of teodoro like having a hot wife or that he drives a BMW 7-series.

in the US negative TV ads are more direct and biting and has no qualms in mentioning the other candidate by name. in fact these ads talk about the opposing candidate and at the end puts to question the other candidate’s credentials or capabilities.

these ads are against barack obama aired by john mccain meant to stop the momentum that obama was enjoying at that time.  negative tv ads are usually aired when an opposing candidate is very much leading in the polls and needs to be stopped. it’s very much like a hail mary pass where close to the election, the candidate airs negative tv ads hoping it will spark a rally  among his supporters and recruit new ones.

results of negative ads are mixed in the US. some worked and brought down candidates and some didn’t. political strategists have always said it is very risky but for a candidate who is not doing well, it is surely very tempting to do. this mccain negative ad against obama obviously did not work.

interestingly enough, these anti-obama negative ads aired by mccain are very much applicable here in the philippines against noynoy aquino or at least that is the negative campaign the presidentiables are saying during debates and press interviews.

are we going to see negative ads soon?

The celebrity backers of Barack Obama say
they are not like Paris and Britney.
[ Los Angeles Times – July 31, 2008 ] :

TO HOLLYWOOD it smacked of desperation.

That’s why the reaction to a new John McCain ad attempting to portray Barack Obama as a kind of mindless celebrity — likening him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears — drew collective yawns and shrugs of irritation from politically active members of the entertainment industry.

Just for a start, industry types say the ad is wrong: In the Hollywood lexicon, Obama is not a celebrity. He’s a rock star. (Note to McCain strategists: That’s the difference between Jessica Simpson and Bono.)

Then there’s the small inconvenience that Paris’ parents, Rick and Kathleen Hilton, are supporters of McCain’s Republican presidential bid. According to federal campaign records, they gave the maximum $4,600.

No word on their plans for the general election, but this much is certain: Their daughter has never paid to attend an Obama campaign fundraiser. (It’s unclear whether she’s even met the senator, or whether she’s even registered to vote. The same goes for Spears.)

McCain’s latest attempt at discrediting his handsome, photogenic young rival particularly galls stars and executives with a memory, because only eight years ago, McCain was a fixture in Hollywood fundraising circles when he tried to raise money from the very people his ad now ridicules.

aquino not only lost momentum, he lost the agenda – now set to lose the election

February 17, 2010 Leave a comment

we have seen the poll numbers change and the changes are not good for noynoy aquino. his ratings are falling and villar whose ratings in previous polls were either holding or slightly rising has finally caught up with aquino and now in a statistical tie.

we attribute aquino’s fall on bad advertising decisions and fatal advertising blunders. (click here to read articles on the topic: why aquino will lose the election). we think what happened is that aquino has lost his momentum due to the fatal blunder of not doing anything in advertising after they aired the first ad . he used to be at the top fo the polls, clearly dominant with the 2nd placer, villar very far down the ladder but not anymore. not doing anything new and allowing a gap in the ads allowed villar to build his base and grab the agenda.

villar has grabbed the momentum away from aquino. in marketing and in elections, that is a very dangerous thing to happen, most specially at this time when we are just less than 3 months away. in these things, momentum sometimes matter more than actual numbers.

the aquino campaign has responded with more pointed and focused efforts on the message of corruption. this is a good effort but we do not think this is enough. we also think this latest effort sorely lacks the strategic thinking that was sorely missed in the fatal blunders they have made in advertising.

meanwhile, villar as of today released new ads, at least we heard this on the radio where villar talks about something personal – his brother died because they had money to buy medicines. this is a brilliant ad. 

it has drama, it is personal and it talks very eloquently of a national issue – poverty, high cost of medicines and bad health care system.   what the villar campaign is doing is that they are defining the agenda for this campaign. aquino used to do this at the start but from doing nothing, it has conceded this initiative and allowed villar to take the lead in defining the agenda and the messages.

once again, aquino’s advertising team was caught flat footed. and once again, they were too slow to react and did not have enough strategic thinking skills in doing something about it.

we think the aquino campaign is in trouble.

~~  a mindscape landmark – carlo arvisu ~~

presidentiables ad themes: villar-poverty, aquino-corruption, estrada-nostalgia and teodoro-ego trip

February 11, 2010 10 comments

as we go to the last few months of the campaign, we see the presidentiables reshaping their campaign themes. in advertising this is called brand positioning. the major candidates have changed their brand positioning that they started with since last year. what we have now may very well be for most of them the positioning that they will have till the end of the campaign period.

manny villar: anti-poverty

manny villar: “all out war on poverty”. villar  has re-shaped his campaign into a theme of anti-poverty. this he actually declared this is what his campaign will take, an all out war on poverty as he put it around the December 27 time.  (read here: manny villar’s “all out war on poverty” platform and manny villar’s “magtatapos ng kahirapan” tv ad – a bold shift in advertising strategy, 5 stars!)

poverty is a key issue not only in philippine politics but more importantly in real life. a significant portion of the philippine population belong to the poor or the DE socio-eco classes. a significantly high proportion of the population are daily wage earners, many don’t even have regular jobs. a large number of families belong to below the poverty line.

aside from the grim statistics and reality, many politicians have won elections on an anti-poverty campaign. in fact most of the politicians do but the most notable winner using this platform is erap estrada.

noynoy aquino – anti-corruption.   in the last few weeks and perhaps as a reaction to his poll ratings softening allowing many villar

noynoy aquino : anti-corruption

to be on a statistical tie, the aquino campaign has focused on “anti-corruption.

corruption just like poverty is a key issue in philippine politics and real life. we see corruption in our daily lives with most of us being victims of it. they may be small for ordinary citizens but we have read in the papers big time corruption scandals.

president gloria macapagal arroyo based on surveys is known as one of the most corrupt presidents of the country since ferdinand marcos. corruption or the suspicion of it, because they are all unresolved will probably be the enduring legacy of arroyo. being under arroyo for 9 years, this is certainly a key issue for the people.

international agencies and think tanks have put corruption at a staggering rate of 25% to 50% in government contracts. that means most of the government contracts are inflated by that rate as that is the rate corrupt officials get out of government projects.

erap estrada – nostalgia and return to power. estrada is asking voters to bring him back to malacanang on the basis of returning him back to office, according to him to allow him to complete his unfinished business which was cut short by a EDSA DOS.

erap estrada : nostalgia

frankly, we do not understand this positioning of estrada. it is one of the weakest among the presidentiables. there is a gross failure in that positioning as this speaks only to estrada supporters which by the time, estrada’s glory days long gone must have shrunk to a small slice.

many of the current voters may not have known what the estrada presidency was during his time. worse, many of them probably know only the bad things, his conviction of plunder more specifically.

appealing to nostalgia means alienating every one else who were not supporters of estrada. they are a minority and getting a minority of votes will not get him elected, a majority will.

this is a WAWAM!

gilbert teodoro – credentials and ego-trip.  we think teodoro’s campaign has suffered the most among all the presidentiables. it has taken a whipping from the get go and continue to make disastrous blunders from the very beginning. quite frankly, we do not think the teodoro campaign has done anything right since it started.

and this positioning of teodoro – an endless propping up of his credentials, even though we are not asking  for it is no more than just an

gilbert teodoro: ego trip

ego trip. we find it strange that an ad for a politician is adapting a positioning of an ego-trip.

teodoro wants us to elect him for his “galing at talino”. teodoro is the only presidentiable who is asking us to vote him based on his personal qualities. all other presidentiables are asking us to vote them for what they will do for the country or what they will solve, teodoro is asking us to vote him for his ego.

his ads endlessly talk about his qualifications, his latest tv ad bragging that he is an accomplished pilot. (read here : gilbert teodoro’s new tv ad “lipad” does not fly, gilbert teodoro’s “galing at talino” tv ads – anti-noynoy, anti-humility, generic promises and gilbert teodoro’s “posible” tv ad – a change of strategy to save his campaign)

this ego-trip obsession  is obvious in teodoro’s tv ads – he enjoys spelling his name in his ads. before the election campaign, when he was still DND chief,  teodoro aired a disaster preparation ad that had his messages spelling out his last name T-E-O-D-O-R-O. (read here:  gilbert teodoro’s tv ad – promises made, promises broken)

we are not surprised to note that his selling line, “Galing At Talino” also spells out his initials. that is incontrovertible proof that teodoro is on an ego-trip positioning.

will an ego-trip positioning appeal to voters? apparently not as we see teodoro’s poll ratings remain at disastrous levels, 4% to 5% at this late stage of the election campaign.

this is a WAWAM!

—-

up next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog are the positioning of the laggard presidentiables.

the tough questions chiz escudero supporters should ask chiz: “iniwan mo ba kami sa kawayan”? escudero’s political suicide

November 1, 2009 1 comment

we here this often now – “walang iwanan”. in an office we used to work before, the line we used was the complete thought – “iniwan sa kawayan!”. that expression uses the idea of the way pinoys  cook lechon where the pig is skewered through and through, with a long “kawayan” then left to slow cook on a bed of burning hot coal. the poor pig tied on both front and back hinds with a long bamboo passing through its body can do nothing but roast against the burning coal.

“iniwan mo ba kami sa kawayan?” is a question chiz escudero’s supporters must ask of chiz, not to mention something that chiz must explain to them.

as of this writing, we really do not know why chiz bolted his political party, NPC. many words have been said, most of it in eloquent tagalog from chiz but we really don’t know until now why he did what he did.

a double whammy, a second kawayan, to follow it through. is that till now escudero’s supporters do not know yet what are the actual plans of escudero. escudero has not declared anything yet.

if we interpret escudero’s elegant tagalog into plain and understandable tagalog, chiz quit the NPC based on principle, or specifically a difference in principles on governance. he kept mentioning the importance of being independent and without shackles for effective good governance.

the other reason mentioned is about money. chiz denies this but it has been mentioned by many. chiz says he lives a simple life and money has not been key for him. he forgets that what we meant was money not for his lifestyle but money for the presidential campaign. some say cojuancgo who set up NPC was willing to bankroll only a few hundred millions but what was needed was a few billion pesos.

in today’s newspaper, the son of cojuangco said the reason for the split was there was no agreement on some of escudero’s “radical positions on matters” (  http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20091101-233358/Escuderos-radical-positions-caused-split-with-NPCDanding-son).

it is a coin toss on what are the real reasons for now. we will need to wait for more elegant tagalog from chiz to know them.

in the meantime, these are the tough questions escudero’s supporters must ask chiz:

  • “iniwan mo ba kami sa kawayan?”
  • there is an english version – “were you just jerking us off?”. chiz made had this drama about holding off his official announcement on his presidential run till his 40th birthday. he had asked all his supporters, not to mention the rest of the filipino people to wait for that birthday of his. there were other postponements after that, each one he did not say he will quit the NPC but just to wait for certain dates for the announcement.
  • question — all of the above, the reasons we mentioned for bolting NPC, were they not thought off all this time? questions on principles, approach and funding are pretty basic questions. these are questions are asked at the very top of the list that any presidential makes when planning to run for president. they are so basic that i thought they should be on top of the agenda.
  • why were these not discussed years, months ago or any time  before his 40th birthday? or anytime BEFORE he was posturing on running for president.
  • when was the last time escudero talked to danding cojuangco? these topics were not discussed?
  • wasn’t escudero talking to the chair or president of NPC about these matters early on?

we are very surprised that topics of this sort has come up at this time when it is very close to the registration time for candidates.

while escudero did not officially announce it,  he was truly posturing that he will for president. he organized, the party organized people and groups. he went into public speaking engagements, he set up websites, he gave interviews – he was on the limelight. all that he did can only be interpreted by his supporters that he was going yo run for president and we assume that many supporters joined him because he was running for president.

what was all that then, only to announce a little over a month from candidate registration time that he is quiting the NPC. not only that, he has not declared what he intends to do.

so, hindi lang iniwan sa kawayan, ngayon bitin sa bubungan ang mga supporters ni escudero.

if escudero decides to do something in 2010, we wonder if his supporters will continue to support him?

%d bloggers like this: