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why will gilbert teodoro lose this election?

May 11, 2010 8 comments

a lot has been written in this blog on why gilbert teodoro will lose this election. across the time frame of the campaign period factors that will make teodoro lose the election has been identified in this blog.

this will provide the key points:

  • arroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro we think is the biggest factor for teodoro’s loss. everyone knew and that included teodoro himself , his political party lakas-kampi-cmd and arroyo herself knew that. we saw arroyo’s kiss of death in action during the last senatorial election where most of the admin senatorial candidates lost and almost all the opposition candidates won. the sentiments and scenario that was operating then is still present in this election and in fact even more intense than before – based on polls, the people failed arroyo on her performance as president,  trust rating have been negative and people see arroyo as most corrupt next to ferdinand marcos. romulo neri called arroyo “evil”, the people agrees with that sentiment. they all knew arroyo is a problem so much so that arroyo has distanced herself from teodoro, hardly saying anything about teodoro, did not campaign for him and did not even have a picture taken with teodoro.
  • teodoro is an unknown. before his proclamation as standard bearer of the admin party, people hardly knew teodoro. he was a congressman in his hometown for some time but he had no national constituency to speak of. all he had was two years of chief of the defense portfolio which was not at all enough for him to gain national prominence or even some  name identification.
  • although he had spent a lot of money on his ads, at some point second highest spender, that did not help him as we think his ads were ill-conceived, was fatally flawed on the ad strategy and the execution faulty.  teodoro spent most of his advertising money on his “resume tv ads” which was too basic and had no power to persuade.
  • we think the teodoro campaign knew teodoro had no national standing that is why they launched those ads. that was fine but they stayed on it too long. all the ads did was create brand awareness while they should have moved to a more persuasive and meaty ads.
  • teodoro’s “ego trip” tv ads, telling the voters he has “galing at talino” were not at all persuasive to the voters. people wanted to know what he will do for the country, not his resume, harvard education and being pilot included. these things simply did not ring a bell among the voters.
  • the executions of his ads were also flawed as they appeared to be too elitist while  most of the voters come from the poor. would the poor who comprise most of the voters be able to relate to teodoro for being a pilot? will they be able to appreciate he knows how to fly a plane? we did not think so.  the teodoro campaign was thinking and doing these ads for themselves, not for the voters. we suspect the ads were feel good ads but feel good for themselves and not the voters or target audience.
  • the teodoro campaign and that includes teodoro himself were perpetually in denial in this campaign from start to finish. we think they knew things were not going right in their campaign even from the very start but they did not seem to want to accept the problems and even much less did not want to do something about it. all they did was they kept telling themselves everything was doing well, nothing was wrong and nothing can go wrong even though they knew what was actually happening was the exact opposite. sadly, we think this is the exact same attitude and problem of the arroyo and her administration for themselves and specially in the way they governed the country.
  • teodoro even failed in showing his “galing at talino” during the onody and pepeng floods and the maguindanao massacre. the ondoy and pepeng floods was a dream come true for any presidential candidate. teodoro was handed in a large silver platter the opportunity to perform and demonstrate to the people he had what it takes to be president. he among everyone else had the best opportunity to make something out of it – he was the admin, a cabinet secretary and the DND to which he was chief was actually in charge of disaster coordination’s. he failed in hos duties, his mandate and as a candidate. had he performed well during the floods, he would have won the election by a landslide.
  • teodoro’s campaign never really took off.  the campaign had failings from the very beginning and almost in every step of the way as the it progressed. we will remember teodoro’s  campaign on the basis of the failings of the campaign that occurred from time to time rather than success points.   
  • lakas-kampi-cmd, teodoro’s political party is a failed political party.  we do not think lakas-kampi-cmd was any help to teodoro. we are not even sure if the party wanted to help him at all.  we think the rumor that the party lost interest on teodoro was not a rumor but the truth.

looking at teodoro’s results and what he had done during the campaign and if you were an alien looking in, you would have not guessed that teodoro belonged to the dominant political party in the country.

teodoro lost this election from day 1.  

~~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~~
carlo arvisu

the curious case of gilbert teodoro cutting ad spending

March 18, 2010 Leave a comment

at the start of official campaign period, gilbert teodoro cut his ad spending to almost zero to only P60T while previous period, he spent a total of P407M, second highest spending to villar’s top spending. (read here : presidentiables spend P2B on advertising. top spenders – villar 1st, teodoro 2nd and aquino 3rd)

we do not understand this move.

teodoro’s poll ratings have been stagnant within the 5% to 7% range since last year. it has not shown any improvement and has kept him at a far 4th with now villar moving up to tie aquino at top place and estrada moving up as well.

with ratings like these, the thing to do is change the ads and increase spending behind it. teodoro has done the exact opposite. he has been going through the provincial rounds but that cannnot compensate for mass media advertising. cutting down on ad spending in this scenario will only see teodoro’s ratings remain the same low 4th to further decline.

makes us wonder:

  • is teodoro  not in this campaign to win this  election?
  • true to previous “complaints” and pronouncements by himself and edu manzano – their political party lakas-kampi-cmmd has ran out of funds? at the start of the campaign??
  • they adapting a miracle strategy where they will do a blitz at the end of the campaign?

need to call oliver stone…..

Teodoro cuts spending on political ads, but not Villar
by Lira Dalangin-Fernandez

INQUIRER.net
First Posted 15:07:00 03/04/2010

MANILA, Philippines – (UPDATE) Presidential candidate and Senator Manuel Villar continues to be the biggest spender of political advertisements at the start of the campaign period last month, already spending some P120 million, according to an advocacy group, citing figures from a media research firm.

In data by AGB Nielsen Media Research from February 9, the start of the official campaign period, until March 2, Villar remained number one among the top five candidates in the presidential race, shelling out P120, 411,093 for 195 minutes of airtime, according to Libertas in its forum Pera’t Pulitika (Money and Politics) Thursday.

Former president Joseph Estrada is second with P88 million for 128.50 minutes, followed by Senator Benigno Aquino III with P87 million for 180 minutes. Senator Richard Gordon is at fourth with P67.3 million for 144 minutes, and in fifth place is administration standard bearer Gilbert Teodoro with P60,480 for 1.5 minutes of airtime, the research firm was quoted as saying.

Among the five candidates, it was Teodoro who considerably cut down on his spending on political ads based on data also from AGB Nielsen, which ranked him second behind Villar, spending P407 million during the pre-campaign months from Nov. 1, 2009 to Jan. 31, 2010. Villar spent P1 billion during the same period.

Read more…

mar roxas gives a new name – manny villaroyo

February 9, 2010 5 comments

villaroyo – this is the name that mar roxas gave manny villar in today’s launch of the LP’s presidential campaign. roxas says it will be made more apparent in the next few weeks that manny villar is indeed the secret candidate of gloria macapagal arroyo.

gilbert teodoro, the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD standard bearer is the presidentiable cloearly associated with arroyo, being party mates and both of them claiming it is such. teodoro’s low ratings in the polls, 5% at best at this late stage of the campaign is showing arroyo has given teodoro a kiss of death.

mar roxas is hoping  villar will be given the same kiss of death. but is arroyo’s kiss of death transferable?

manny pacquaio joins manny villar in NP

December 20, 2009 1 comment

Poor boys once, Manny goes for Manny 
By Aquiles Zonio, Rosa May de Guzman
Inquirer Mindanao
First Posted 01:20:00 12/19/2009

GENERAL SANTOS CITY, Philippines —They partied all night, then sealed the deal at 1 a.m.

World boxing icon Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao formally joined the ranks of the opposition under the Nacionalista Party, taking his oath early Friday before Sen. Manny Villar, the NP candidate in the 2010 presidential race.

Pacquiao made it official in a simple ceremony held at the champ’s mansion in Lagao village here, a few hours following his lavish birthday bash at the KCC Convention Center where about 2,000 guests came to greet the 31-year-old multimillionaire athlete.

we think there are two stories here – one is the main thing which is manny pacquiao joins manny villar in the NP party. the other story is that manny pacquaio has turned opposition and has dropped his alignment with the arroyo administration and by extension gilbert teodoro.

we see pacquaio a lot with arroyo when he wins his boxing matches. it also helps that DENR lito atienza and arroyo admin official chavit singson are close friends and supporters of pacquaio.

while pacquiao has not really joined a lot of the political publicity for arroyo nor teodoro, with the election campaign season about to open and pacquiao running for congress, we should expect a lot more exposure for pacquiao.

villar runs a superb marketing ad advertising effort behind his campaign, we should expect  a lot of new things in the near future with pacquiao in it. and that on its own is a big loss for the arroyo administration and its candidate, gilbert teodoro.

mass exodus at arroyo’s LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party, 40% members have left the party

November 18, 2009 1 comment

Lakas exec, 2 others join LP 
By Maila Ager
INQUIRER.net

MANILA, Philippines—(UPDATE) A ranking official of the administration’s Lakas-Kampi-CMD and two others have left to join the Liberal Party as a coalition executive admitted that about 30 to 40 percent of Lakas partymates have shifted their loyalty to rival parties, officials said Wednesday.

Quezon City Mayor Feliciano “Sonny” Belmonte, executive vice president for external affairs of Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats, and his vice mayor, Herbert Bautista, will formally join the party of Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III on Thursday, according to the senator’s campaign manager Florencio “Butch” Abad.

Bautista will seek the mayoralty post while the incumbent mayor will run for Congress.

Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri, vice president for Lakas-Kampi-CMD Mindanao, said a significant number of party members had left the group, adding more are expected to leave the administration party as the December 1 deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy draws near.

“Probably 30 to 40 percent of the party members already left,” Zubiri told reporters. “Well, you know as we say in politics, for everyone that leave there’s always an open door for somebody to come in.”

Aside from Belmonte, Zubiri said he was told that governors and a few city mayors were also planning to bolt the administration party.

Zubiri attributed this to the “problem on the popularity” of the administration’s standard-bearer, Gilberto Teodoro, and “political survival.”

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20091118-236998/Lakas-exec-2-others-join-LP

vilma santos and ralph recto join noynoy-mar in LP – LAKAS-KAAMPI-CMD deteriorates further

November 17, 2009 2 comments

when governor vilma santos and ex-senator ralph recto announced they will join the aquino-roxas team at the LP, the result was this – it’s not a pretty sight. that is for the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD, the ruling/admin party of president gloria macapagal arroyo and the gilbert teodoro-edu manzano tandem.

governor vilma santos was the first and overwhelming choice of most of the admin/ruling party members one day the executive committee of the party they had chosen gilbert teodoro as standard bearer and ronaldo puno, DILG chief as its vice-presidential candidate.

the reaction or dissatisfaction the choice of ronaldo puno as VP candidate was almost immediate and universal. party members had the same reaction to teodoro but it was more restrained and came about a few more days after.

the ruling/admin party knew just teodoro alone will not put them to glory. in fact they instinctively knew they were done for, thus the clamor for santos. santos is still a popular actress, very much respected as one by her peers and by the public. not only that and this is probably her greatest asset – she has done very well as governor of batangas.

wanting santos to join teodoro was the miracle solution the party members were looking for. almost immediately santos made it known that she was not interested. days after the clamor started, vilma was non-committal. she said nobody has talked to her about it. this was very different from puno who before the announcement of his selection as VP was very clear in his desire to run for VP.

not only did santos refuse the ruling/admin party, she will now join aquino and roxas at the NP. that amounts to adding salt into an open wound. look at LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD now and it is not a pretty sight.

 its not only santos who will bolt the ruling/admin party, but her husband, ex-senator ralph recto too. recto bolting arroyo’s ruling/admin party is significant in itself as recto recently resigned as part of arroyo’s cabinet on the NEDA portfolio. this is very close to an arroyo team member defecting to the other side.

news reports have been coming out on the topic of a mass exodus of party members from the ruling/admin party LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD. recto and santos’ exodus from the ruling/admin party is the latest major proof of that conclusion.

Vilma, Ralph join Noy-Mar team, boost LP star power 
By Bayani San Diego Jr.
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:37:00 11/17/2009

MANILA, Philippines—The Noynoy and Mar show on Monday got an added dose of celebrity glitz with ex-Sen. Ralph Recto and his wife Vilma Santos joining the Liberal Party (LP).

Making the jump from the administration coalition, under whose banner the couple ran in the 2007 elections, isn’t because the popular actress and Batangas governor will star in an upcoming blockbuster celebrating the life of the late President Corazon Aquino.

“For next year’s presidential election, we want a political party that can promise an administration that is competent and truthful—one that can offer solutions to our nation’s problems,” Santos told the Inquirer Monday.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20091117-236694/Vilma-Ralph-join-Noy-Mar-team-boost-LP-star-power

arroyo quits as LAKAS-Kampi chair – will arroyo’s “kiss of death” on gilbert teodoro disappear with it?

November 7, 2009 Leave a comment

no, we do not think so. but that is what they want to achieve here – arroyo will resign as LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD chair to get some trappings of independence for teodoro to remove arroyo’s “kiss of death” on gilbert teodoro’s presidential run.

most of the admin senatorial candidates lost in the last election mainly on the basis of the strong association of these candidates with arroyo. most of the opposition in that election won even senator trillanes who was in jail on coup d’etat charges, trillanes was unable to campaign and had penny advertising funds but he won the senate seat just on the basis of his attempt to unseat arroyo from power.

teodoro is presently down in the dumps in the survey, with a measly 4% while the dominant front runner, noynoy aquino is at 60%. teodoro’s poor performance is seen by many as due to arroyo’s kiss of death, among other reasons. arroyo is the most unpopular president of the country and suffer with no trust among the population.

arroyo giving up chair in favor of teodoro is nothing but a cosmetic application. it is already too late, people already associate teodoro with arroyo. and besides, there is really no escaping it.

we expect more spin from malacanang on this matter and most specially those coming from the teodoro campaign to drum up the idea of independence and the cutting of ties from arroyo. how will they do it? and will it work?

Arroyo to quit as Lakas-Kampi chair


abs-cbnNEWS.com | 11/07/2009 5:11 PM

Press Secretary Cerge Remonde said Mrs. Arroyo has “stated her desire” to turn over the party leadership to Teodoro. He said the President “wanted to pass the torch to the younger generation.”

Not quitting Lakas-Kampi

Secretary Gabby Claudio, Mrs. Arroyo’s adviser on political affairs, meanwhile, clarified that Mrs. Arroyo is not resigning from the ruling coalition party.

“President Arroyo is not quitting the administration party. She is merely turning over its chairmanship to Secretary Gibo Teodoro in keeping with the party tradition,” he said.

Read more…

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