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2016 Presidentiables Online Poll Now Open

October 19, 2015 3 comments

 

poll opened October 19, 2015
Rody Duterte added December 4, 2015

senator miriam defenser santiago – “short of declaring Binay guilty” of charges

October 15, 2014 Leave a comment

Miriam cites SC rulings vs Binay’s ‘silence’ on allegations

Short of declaring Vice President Binay guilty of the allegations against him, Senator Miriam Santiago cites a number of Supreme Court rulings that scoff at the silence of the accused

MANILA, Philippines – It has become Senator Miriam Santiago v. Vice President Jejomar Binay.

It was an event sponsored by the Catholics for Reproductive Health, but Senator Miriam Santiago veered her topic towards the end of her speech to slam Binay’s refusal to attend the Senate probe on the alleged overpriced Makati City Hall II Parking Building.

Binay’s strategy to resort to speeches to respond to the allegations, she said, is tantamount to forum shopping.

“In the cascade of corruption cases that have fallen on the heads of the hapless Filipino people, the most spectacular are the plunder and allied charges against Vice-President Jejomar Binay,” Santiago began the section of the speech titled, “The Curious Case of the Taciturn Vice-President.”

Short of declaring Binay guilty of the allegations against him by former Makati vice mayor Ernesto Mercado, the former trial lawyer cited 6 Supreme Court rulings that scoff at the silence of the accused.

“The presumption of innocence means only that it is the prosecution which bears the burden of proof. Once the prosecution has presented evidence, then it becomes the obligation of the respondent to present his evidence. After hearing both sides, then the tribunal makes a decision based on the evidence,” Santiago said.

Vice President Binay dismissed the probe of the Senate Blue Ribbon Subcommittee as pre-judged and politically motivated while his son, Makati Mayor Erwin Jejomar Binay, challenged the jurisdiction of the subcommittee but was junked for lack of merit.

Santiago said Binay cannot and should not evade the jurisdiction of the Senate for this simple reason: “If the VP has truth to tell, what is he afraid of?”

She added: “Binay appears to be content in defending himself by delivering speeches accusing his enemies of lying. That is not sufficient. He must present his own evidence.”

Santiago explained how the ruling of the High Court in 7 cases work against Binay’s reasoning in skipping the Senate probe.

She cited the following as jurisprudence to support the Senate jurisdiction over the Makati building probe:

Dela Paz v. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

read in full here: http://www.rappler.com/nation/72067-miriam-binay-supreme-court

three more reasons why VP Jojo Binay should panic

October 10, 2014 Leave a comment

the previous weeks have not been very good for vp jojo binay for himself and for his 2016 presidential ambition. charges at the ombudsman have been filed, the senate hearing on the overpriced Makati Parking Building started, aside from the parking building, many more issues have been unearthed and just recently the Pulse Asia surveys have been released where it has shown dramatic declines on his presidential ambitions.

we did say it is time for binay to panic.

as if the above have not been enough, here are three more reasons why binay should panic :

1. this person named mar roxas, another presidentiable allied with president noynoy aquino. roxas have had some bad press in recent months and when the presidentiables surveys came out, he did not do very well.

that may have change in the recent surveys and it is one of the reasons why binay should panic. here are the reasons why roxas should make binay panic:

sepRoxasPresPulse_circle

mar roxas’ numbers in the latest pulse asia survey have been spectacular :

  • roxas’ national ratings nearly doubled in september versus june, 10 13% from 7%. in fact from march, it has more than doubled – from 6% to 13%,
  • his ratings in visayas and mindanao  showed spectacular increases – doubling in visayas in september from june (from 11% to 22%) and more than doubled in mindanao from 8% in march to 19% in september.
  • there were also spectacular increases among the D and E socio eco classes – among the D it doubled from 6% in march to 12% in september and an even more spectacular jump among the E where it more than doubled from March, 8% to 19% in September.

these are all spectacular increases. anytime your political base doubles be it in an area or among social classes, it is always spectacular and shows very big promise. this shows those who have abandoned binay are mostly moving over to roxas. binay’s loss is roxas’ gain.

2. dramatic changes in ranking – competition are gaining – the loss of supporters for binay showed his major competitors have gained. the changes in the rankings have been dramatic.

PresRankSep

 

except for estrada, the chart shows that the traditionally strong presidentiables like roxas and santiago benefited from the deterioration in binay’s supporters. roxas who was ranked 5th in the june survey is now 2nd and santiago who was 6th is not 3rd. this shows they are gaining on binay.

3. the last reason why vp jojo binay should panic is this person called jojo binay himself. the chart shows a dramatic drop in supporters for binay from the upper calss, the ABC socio-eco class, from 47% in march to just 23% in september, he lost more than half of his supporters among the upper class.

PulseAsiaSepPresBinay_circlethe upper class are not just the thinking class, they are also the loudest class. they do speak and they will speak to others about their feelings. having them dump you as a presidentiable is not a good thing. not only that, their topic when they talk will most likely be about the corruption allegations and charges uncovered on binay. those are poison topics. the upper class talking about these on binay is not good content for the 2016 election.

the upper class admittedly is a small portion of the population but not having them on your side will eventually influence the rest of the country. the losses among the poor, DE socio-eco classes are big but not yet dramatic but when the dramatic deterioration happens among these groups of voters, it is good-bye 2016 for binay.

in analyzing data, one looks for the big changes, drops or increases and the trends. when you see these things on a set of data, it tells you where the red flags are and where the celebrations are located. these are just a first set of data points, a trend can’t still be seen. but the big changes in numbers, specially that these are dramatic drops is a big worry. what if the dramatic drops is the beginning of a trend?

the other thing you look at are “magnitude” and where they occur. some changes are not significant and therefore should not be worrisome. but if a change is like one half of the whole thing, that is magnitude staring at your face that should make you worry. imagine – losing one half of your support base in a particular segment. it is like you are a singer and when you reach half of the song you are singing, one half of the audience leaves the  theater. that would alarm you and yes, it says something about your performance and skills. that is what happened to binay in some of the points in this survey.

that says one thing – it is time to panic!

 

The 4 PDAF Scam “Napoles Lists” compared here

May 26, 2014 Leave a comment

the “Honor Roll” or “Dishonor Roll” of the philippine senate?

(pics source : http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/05/27/1327759/18-senators-final-list)

some points:

  • the most recent janet napoles “long list” for the PDAF scam has 20 names, closer to the PDI List which had 25 names
  • napoles added 8 additional names, the “long lisy” now having 20 names compared to the short list that she gave SOJ de lima which had 12 names on it
  • the following 9 names (in green text) appear in all 4 lists : ap cayetano, bong revilla, honasan, jinggoy estrada, enrile, koko pimentel and barbers.
  • the ping lacson list has 10 names with 9 appearing 4 times and 1 appearing 3 times

4NapolesLists

 

MANILA, Philippines – Twenty Senators, 100 congressmen, and all of their agents in the pork barrel transactions were named in the affidavit of Janet Lim Napoles submitted to the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee Monday.

“To the extent of my knowledge, the following are the Senators, Congressmen and their agents and the officials or staff of implementing agencies of government that had connections with me and received part of the pork barrel,” Napoles said in her affidavit.

read in full here :
20 senators, 100 congressmen named on Napoles’ long list
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/605682/20-senators-100-congressmen-named-in-napoles-long-list

compare the 3 PDAF Scam senators list : Napoles, PDI and Lacson Lists

May 15, 2014 Leave a comment

 

  • the “janet napoles list” comes from the document SOJ leila de lima submitted to the senate blue ribbon committee.
  • “the PDI (philippine daily inquirer) list” is a list PDI made based on the benhur luy’s computer hard disk. PDI made a copy of the contents of the hard disk.
  • the “pin lacson list” according to lacson came from jimmy napoles, the husband of janet.
  • nine (9) names appear in all 3 lists : cayetano, revilla, honasan, estrada, enrile, pimentel, legarda, villar and barbers
  • three (3) names appear on 2 lists out of 3 : escudero, ejercito and sotto
  • nine (9) names belong to 4 families : loi, JV, jinggoy – estrada family; bong and ramon sr – revilla family; cynthia and manny – villar family; koko and aquilino – pimentel family
  • comparing the ping lacson and janet napoles lists, there are 2 names missing from the lacson list – JV ejercito and tito sotto.  lacson reportedly got his list from the husband of janet napoles, presumably given by janet napoles.

PDAF Scam List

the Benhur Luy List on the PDAF Scam

May 14, 2014 1 comment

 

in the Benhur Luy List :

  1. Manny Villar
  2. Cynthia Villar
  3. Ralph Recto
  4. Koko Pimentel
  5. Aquilino Pimentel
  6. Tito Sotto
  7. Miriam Defensor Santiago
  8. Bongbong Marcos
  9. Jun Magsaysay
  10. Loren Legarda
  11. Lito Lapid
  12. Bong Revilla
  13. Ramon Revilla Sr
  14. Robert Jaworski
  15. Greg Honasan
  16. Loi Estrada
  17. JV Ejercito
  18. Frank Drilon
  19. Alan Peter Cayetano
  20. Rodolfo Biazon
  21. Jinggoy Estrada
  22. Robert Barbers
  23. Tessie Aquino-Oreta
  24. Juan Ponce Enrile
  25. Edgardo Angara

the families in the list :

Estrada Family – Loi, JV, Jinggoy
Revilla Family – Ramon Sr., Bong Jr.
Pimentel Family – Aquilino, Koko
Villar Family – Manny, Cynthia

 

 

 

 

 

 

25 senators on Luy list

Estrada, Revilla, Enrile biggest pork beneficiaries

By 

 

Third of a series

 

MANILA, Philippines—The names of 25 past and present senators are in the digital files of whistle-blower Benhur Luy detailing transactions Janet Lim-Napoles made from 2002 to 2012—a period during which she channeled congressional Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) allocations to ghost projects and kickbacks.

 

The entries were made upon the instruction of Napoles to Luy, who was then her finance officer. The files were copied by the Inquirer from a hard disk drive (HDD) that Luy’s parents handed over during a visit to its newsroom last year to ask for help in exposing the alleged plunder of state funds by Napoles and her highly placed clients.

 

Luy said his parents did not know the explosive contents of the disk drive.

 

The files showed that the funds were from projects for members of the Commission on Appointments, the minority bloc in the House of Representatives of 2003, the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC), savings from the Department of Agriculture, Department of Agrarian Reforms, allocation for the Senate President Pro Tempore, majority floor leader, and for budget insertions.

 

The records showed that 15 incumbent senators had transactions with Napoles: Juan Ponce Enrile, Ramon Revilla Jr., Jinggoy Estrada, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Vicente “Tito” Sotto, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Gringo Honasan, Loren Legarda, Aquilino Pimentel III, Manuel “Lito” Lapid, Cynthia Villar, JV Ejercito, Franklin Drilon, Ralph Recto and Alan Peter Cayetano.

 

Also in the records were the names of former Senators Edgardo Angara, Manny Villar, Tessie Oreta, Nene Pimentel, Rodolfo Biazon, Robert Jaworski, Robert Barbers, Loi Estrada, Ramon Magsaysay and Ramon Revilla Sr.

 

Luy’s records also showed that Enrile, Revilla and Estrada were Napoles’ longtime clients.

 

Enrile is on record as having used P683 million from 2004 to 2012. But this is still an incomplete figure. The Inquirer still has to complete checking Luy’s records on Enrile’s total PDAF disbursements to Napoles NGOs.

 

Revilla used a total of P1.2 billion, again a figure that is still incomplete as the Inquirer continues to check the Luy files.

 

Estrada tops them all at P1.6 billion, which is still an incomplete figure as the Inquirer continues its examination of the records.

 

Apart from being regular clients of Napoles since 2004, the three senators were also the biggest contributors to the pork barrel funded projects who repeatedly funneled billions of funds to her bogus nongovernment organizations (NGOs). They received at least 50 percent in kickbacks of each project, the files showed.

 

First senator-client

 

Lapid was the first senator to become a client of Napoles. He was then governor of Pampanga. At that time, he received a total of P1,132,500 total cash advance—in US dollars and pesos—on Dec. 20, 2002, March 23, 2003, and May 7, 2003.

 

The first transaction with Lapid, according to the records, was P500,000 on Dec. 20, 2005, with the remarks “given at the Manila Hotel.”

 

In another deal, described as a Commission on Appointment project under the Department of Agriculture, Region 3, but realigned to Guagua, Pampanga, Lapid allocated P5 million and received a “rebate” of P2 million representing 40 percent of the project, the records showed.

 

Cayetano returned money

 

Luy’s records showed that Cayetano allocated P3 million of his PDAF while he was the Taguig-Pateros representative in 2003 intended for communication supply with the DOTC as implementing agency.

 

The records also showed a cash advance of P639,625 was received by “VLL,” but other details in the records showed that P500,000 of the amount was returned by Cayetano to JLN, Napoles’ company. Luy in earlier interviews with the Inquirer said Cayetano declined to enter into transactions with Napoles.

 

Santiago in a letter dated Sept. 5, 2005, and addressed to a Dennis Araullo, regional executive director of the Department of Agriculture, allocated P5 million to Cabadbaran, Agusan del Norte, for financial assistance to coffee growers under ASA-no. 101-2005-315 dated June 14, 2005.

 

Santiago’s rebate

 

On the same date, under Voucher No. 09-4780,  Zenaida Ducut also received “cash bonus from Sen. Miriam Defensor P10 m project DA savings .05 the amount of P100 thousand.”

 

On the Sept. 30, 2005, entry of Luy’s financial records, under the heading JLN cash/ check disbursement, showed that Ducut, the current Energy Regulatory Commission chair, received the rebate in behalf of Santiago.

 

“Full payment received charged from (Santiago) DA savings the amount of P2.5 million under voucher 09-4779,” the records indicated.

 

Marcos, a first-term senator allocated P360 million of his PDAF in 2011 and 2012 covered by 10 special allocation release orders (Saros) through the government-owned National Livelihood Development Corp. (NLDC) as the implementing agency and designated local government units (LGUSs) as conduits to the Napoles organizations.

 

Sotto, senator from 1992 to 2004 and who returned for another term in 2010, also funneled from 2010 to 2012 P228 million of his pork barrel funds to Napoles NGOs through the NLDC and selected LGUs. Sotto also repeatedly assigned the same towns and cities as recipients of his PDAF from 2010 to 2012 with Napoles NGOs as beneficiaries under 12 Saros.

 

Legarda, a senator from 1998 to 2004 and again in 2007, also allocated P200 million of her PDAF in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to NLDC, LGU and Napoles’s NGOs as beneficiaries. Legarda’s allocations were covered by eight Saros.

 

Honasan channeled P107 million of his PDAF to Napoles groups twice, through the NLDC on Sept, 18, 2009 and to the DA on April 1, 2008.

 

‘For Gringo Honasan’

 

On Oct. 22, 2009, another Luy document stated that P1.750 million was transferred to an account of JLN Corp. at the Metrobank Ortigas branch “for Gringo Honasan.”

 

Sen. Cynthia Villar supposedly received P500,000 as kickback allocated for members of the House minority bloc in 2003 with the DOTC as the implementing agency and Jo-Chris Trading as the link to Napoles.

 

JV Ejercito allocated P5 million through the Department of Interior and Local government when he was still San Juan representative in 2011, the records showed.

 

Also on the file was a letter supposedly from Recto dated Aug. 30, 2010, for Agrarian Reform Secretary Virgilio de los Reyes in which he requested  P10 million for agrarian reform projects nationwide. No other record on Recto appears in Luy’s files.

 

In one of Luy’s records under the CA-DA 2005 allocations, Drilon was listed to have been allocated P5 million as head of the Commission on Appointments.

 

One of the letters in Luy’s files showed that Drilon wrote to budget Secretary Florencio Abad on Nov. 22, 2011, and requested for P100-million financial assistance, to be coursed through the DAR secretary. But according to Luy, speaking through his lawyer, Raji Mendoza, “the letter was drafted but no transactions took place, as far as his recollection” was concerned.

 

An April 3, 2007, entry in Luy’s records showed that Angara allocated P50 million of his PDAF in 2007 to 10 municipalities in Mindanao as beneficiaries.

 

Senator Manny Villar in 2003 with his allocation from the Congressional Initiatives Funds and the DOTC as the implementing agency procured equipment supplied by Jo-Chris Trading, owned by Napoles.

 

Pimentel’s cash advances

 

In 2003 and 2004, then Sen. Nene Pimentel allegedly funneled his PDAF to Napoles organizations and received cash advances of totaling P7.6 million in cash and checks all received by a Mon Arcenas between Sept. 9, 2003 and Nov. 6, 2003. The entry also showed that a delivery of a check “was at the Senate.”

 

Oreta, in 2003, allocated P45 million to various soft projects and received P10,890.00 as “cash advance received by Caloy and Johnny,” but Luy’s record showed that she returned the money. The entry also stated that a balance of P1 million was to be returned by Brian Yamsuan, Oreta’s chief of staff, and the project would be completed by another contractor.

 

Oreta also was included in the list of lawmakers in the DOTC project allocation of P4.5 million.

 

Biazon, now Muntinlupa Representative, allocated P92 million of his PDAF in 2004 and 2008 using various agents under implementing agencies Technology Resource Center and the DA based on cash releases records of Luy.

 

Former Sen. Loi Ejercito was also among the lawmakers who allocated the most number of pork barrel projects to Napoles’ NGOs between 2004 and 2008 using P285 million of taxpayers’ money.

 

Jaworksi in 2003 and 2004 allocated P29.l25 million of his PDAF to Napoles NGOs through LGUs in Mindanao and also to the DOTC.

 

Magsaysay allocated P4 million to two provinces in 2004-2005 through the Napoles organizations.

 

Revilla Sr. allocated P169.07 million of his PDAF in projects “nationwide” in 2003 and 2004. His cash advances were in manager’s check and cash received by a Rowena Mendiola. Other cash advances were given by Napoles herself, the records showed.

 

Barbers, who died in 2005, allocated P89 million of his PDAF in 2003 and 2004 in a “nationwide” project. His cash advances were received by a “Canda” and an “Atty. Laloy.”—With Inquirer Research

 

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/602031/25-senators-on-luy-list#ixzz31e6WnUif
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Pulse Asia March 2014 presidentiables survey : don’t panic, it’s only 2014

May 1, 2014 Leave a comment

one fine day at the end of april 2014, we were greeted with headlines on print and broadcast media similar to what rappler.com had – vp jejomar binay an announced candidate for the 2016 presidential election tops all of them with a whopping 40% of the survey answers as the candidate mar2014 Pulse Rapplerthe respondents will vote if the election was held today.

that is like a just little less than 2 years till the may 2016 elections. a long way off till election time.

and that is the reason why the other presidentiables (ahem, mar roxas and alan peter cayetano) should not panic. the standings of the candidates will change dramatically as we approach may 2016. that is guaranteed – dramatic and drastic.

people’s sentiments change over time and so does the behavior of the presidentiables, not to mention the campaign programs and ads the candidates will be releasing before and during the campaign period.  more importantly, studies show that the farther from election time, the more fickle voters are. it says voters get to firm up their choices the nearer election time goes. many start firming up their choices just 1 to 2 weeks before the election. in fact for the swing votes, many firm up their choices just 1 or 2 days before election time.

these type of development can be seen in previous elections where we can see the dramatic changes in the survey standings of the presidentiables.

for posterity, we will be posting here the data tables of the this pulse asia march 2014 presidentiables survey and the other survey results for vice presidentiable and senatoriables. the charts have been picked up from rappler.com (read here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/56725-binay-runaway-winner-pulse-asia-poll)

mar2014 Presidential

we were surprised by the strong showing, on third, of senator miriam defensor santiago. her strong stance against the PDAF scam has put her on that spot.

grace poe has come out as second here mainly due to her strong showing in the senate hearings. she has come out as very intelligent and poised in these hearings.

vp jejomar binay coming out as top is no surprise. his position as VP has helped him a lot to be in that spot.

mar roxas although he has not declared he will run for president, but we all know he will run, came in very low at 5th with just 6% (versus binay’s 40%). perhaps his performance during the yolanda storm may have affected him here.

mar2014 VP

chiz escudero seem to be a perennial favorite for the vice presidential slot. maybe it is time for him to have a go at it.

mar2014 senators

we are shocked that senator tito sotto is among the top 3 specially when taking at look at where manny pacquaio is. sotto is among the top 3 while pacquaio is way below on the top 18. it is hard to reconcile how sotto a plagiarist can be on top and beat out pacquiao who is a national hero for many pinoys. makes us wonder that perhaps pacquaio is not as favored as we think or more importantly as what he thinks he is.

mar2014 senators 2

how should the candidates proceed from this?

  • take the results with a mountain of salt
  • need to monitor developments
  • candidates and planners should draw some conclusions from the survey results
  • common denominators should be pulled out
  • from these conclusions, they should draw out a research plan
  • conduct research based on these results

we think it is important for the candidates to draw learnings from thes results and draw up medium to long-term action plans.

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