2016 Presidentiables Online Poll Now Open

Mar Roxas

Jejomar Binay

Miriam Defensor Santiago

Grace Poe

Rody Duterte

 

poll opened October 19, 2015
Rody Duterte added December 4, 2015

senator miriam defenser santiago – “short of declaring Binay guilty” of charges

Miriam cites SC rulings vs Binay’s ‘silence’ on allegations

Short of declaring Vice President Binay guilty of the allegations against him, Senator Miriam Santiago cites a number of Supreme Court rulings that scoff at the silence of the accused

—

MANILA, Philippines – It has become Senator Miriam Santiago v. Vice President Jejomar Binay.

It was an event sponsored by the Catholics for Reproductive Health, but Senator Miriam Santiago veered her topic towards the end of her speech to slam Binay’s refusal to attend the Senate probe on the alleged overpriced Makati City Hall II Parking Building.

Binay’s strategy to resort to speeches to respond to the allegations, she said, is tantamount to forum shopping.

“In the cascade of corruption cases that have fallen on the heads of the hapless Filipino people, the most spectacular are the plunder and allied charges against Vice-President Jejomar Binay,” Santiago began the section of the speech titled, “The Curious Case of the Taciturn Vice-President.”

Short of declaring Binay guilty of the allegations against him by former Makati vice mayor Ernesto Mercado, the former trial lawyer cited 6 Supreme Court rulings that scoff at the silence of the accused.

“The presumption of innocence means only that it is the prosecution which bears the burden of proof. Once the prosecution has presented evidence, then it becomes the obligation of the respondent to present his evidence. After hearing both sides, then the tribunal makes a decision based on the evidence,” Santiago said.

Vice President Binay dismissed the probe of the Senate Blue Ribbon Subcommittee as pre-judged and politically motivated while his son, Makati Mayor Erwin Jejomar Binay, challenged the jurisdiction of the subcommittee but was junked for lack of merit.

Santiago said Binay cannot and should not evade the jurisdiction of the Senate for this simple reason: “If the VP has truth to tell, what is he afraid of?”

She added: “Binay appears to be content in defending himself by delivering speeches accusing his enemies of lying. That is not sufficient. He must present his own evidence.”

Santiago explained how the ruling of the High Court in 7 cases work against Binay’s reasoning in skipping the Senate probe.

She cited the following as jurisprudence to support the Senate jurisdiction over the Makati building probe:

Dela Paz v. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

read in full here: http://www.rappler.com/nation/72067-miriam-binay-supreme-court

three more reasons why VP Jojo Binay should panic

the previous weeks have not been very good for vp jojo binay for himself and for his 2016 presidential ambition. charges at the ombudsman have been filed, the senate hearing on the overpriced Makati Parking Building started, aside from the parking building, many more issues have been unearthed and just recently the Pulse Asia surveys have been released where it has shown dramatic declines on his presidential ambitions.

we did say it is time for binay to panic.

as if the above have not been enough, here are three more reasons why binay should panic :

1. this person named mar roxas, another presidentiable allied with president noynoy aquino. roxas have had some bad press in recent months and when the presidentiables surveys came out, he did not do very well.

that may have change in the recent surveys and it is one of the reasons why binay should panic. here are the reasons why roxas should make binay panic:

mar roxas’ numbers in the latest pulse asia survey have been spectacular :

• roxas’ national ratings nearly doubled in september versus june, 10 13% from 7%. in fact from march, it has more than doubled – from 6% to 13%,
• his ratings in visayas and mindanao  showed spectacular increases – doubling in visayas in september from june (from 11% to 22%) and more than doubled in mindanao from 8% in march to 19% in september.
• there were also spectacular increases among the D and E socio eco classes – among the D it doubled from 6% in march to 12% in september and an even more spectacular jump among the E where it more than doubled from March, 8% to 19% in September.

these are all spectacular increases. anytime your political base doubles be it in an area or among social classes, it is always spectacular and shows very big promise. this shows those who have abandoned binay are mostly moving over to roxas. binay’s loss is roxas’ gain.

2. dramatic changes in ranking – competition are gaining – the loss of supporters for binay showed his major competitors have gained. the changes in the rankings have been dramatic.

 

except for estrada, the chart shows that the traditionally strong presidentiables like roxas and santiago benefited from the deterioration in binay’s supporters. roxas who was ranked 5th in the june survey is now 2nd and santiago who was 6th is not 3rd. this shows they are gaining on binay.

3. the last reason why vp jojo binay should panic is this person called jojo binay himself. the chart shows a dramatic drop in supporters for binay from the upper calss, the ABC socio-eco class, from 47% in march to just 23% in september, he lost more than half of his supporters among the upper class.

the upper class are not just the thinking class, they are also the loudest class. they do speak and they will speak to others about their feelings. having them dump you as a presidentiable is not a good thing. not only that, their topic when they talk will most likely be about the corruption allegations and charges uncovered on binay. those are poison topics. the upper class talking about these on binay is not good content for the 2016 election.

the upper class admittedly is a small portion of the population but not having them on your side will eventually influence the rest of the country. the losses among the poor, DE socio-eco classes are big but not yet dramatic but when the dramatic deterioration happens among these groups of voters, it is good-bye 2016 for binay.

in analyzing data, one looks for the big changes, drops or increases and the trends. when you see these things on a set of data, it tells you where the red flags are and where the celebrations are located. these are just a first set of data points, a trend can’t still be seen. but the big changes in numbers, specially that these are dramatic drops is a big worry. what if the dramatic drops is the beginning of a trend?

the other thing you look at are “magnitude” and where they occur. some changes are not significant and therefore should not be worrisome. but if a change is like one half of the whole thing, that is magnitude staring at your face that should make you worry. imagine – losing one half of your support base in a particular segment. it is like you are a singer and when you reach half of the song you are singing, one half of the audience leaves the  theater. that would alarm you and yes, it says something about your performance and skills. that is what happened to binay in some of the points in this survey.

that says one thing – it is time to panic!

 

The 4 PDAF Scam “Napoles Lists” compared here

the “Honor Roll” or “Dishonor Roll” of the philippine senate?

(pics source : http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/05/27/1327759/18-senators-final-list)

some points:

• the most recent janet napoles “long list” for the PDAF scam has 20 names, closer to the PDI List which had 25 names
• napoles added 8 additional names, the “long lisy” now having 20 names compared to the short list that she gave SOJ de lima which had 12 names on it
• the following 9 names (in green text) appear in all 4 lists : ap cayetano, bong revilla, honasan, jinggoy estrada, enrile, koko pimentel and barbers.
• the ping lacson list has 10 names with 9 appearing 4 times and 1 appearing 3 times

 

MANILA, Philippines – Twenty Senators, 100 congressmen, and all of their agents in the pork barrel transactions were named in the affidavit of Janet Lim Napoles submitted to the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee Monday.

“To the extent of my knowledge, the following are the Senators, Congressmen and their agents and the officials or staff of implementing agencies of government that had connections with me and received part of the pork barrel,” Napoles said in her affidavit.

read in full here :
20 senators, 100 congressmen named on Napoles’ long list
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/605682/20-senators-100-congressmen-named-in-napoles-long-list

compare the 3 PDAF Scam senators list : Napoles, PDI and Lacson Lists

 

• the “janet napoles list” comes from the document SOJ leila de lima submitted to the senate blue ribbon committee.
• “the PDI (philippine daily inquirer) list” is a list PDI made based on the benhur luy’s computer hard disk. PDI made a copy of the contents of the hard disk.
• the “pin lacson list” according to lacson came from jimmy napoles, the husband of janet.
• nine (9) names appear in all 3 lists : cayetano, revilla, honasan, estrada, enrile, pimentel, legarda, villar and barbers
• three (3) names appear on 2 lists out of 3 : escudero, ejercito and sotto
• nine (9) names belong to 4 families : loi, JV, jinggoy – estrada family; bong and ramon sr – revilla family; cynthia and manny – villar family; koko and aquilino – pimentel family
• comparing the ping lacson and janet napoles lists, there are 2 names missing from the lacson list – JV ejercito and tito sotto.  lacson reportedly got his list from the husband of janet napoles, presumably given by janet napoles.

the Benhur Luy List on the PDAF Scam

 

in the Benhur Luy List :

1. Manny Villar
2. Cynthia Villar
3. Ralph Recto
4. Koko Pimentel
5. Aquilino Pimentel
6. Tito Sotto
7. Miriam Defensor Santiago
8. Bongbong Marcos
9. Jun Magsaysay
10. Loren Legarda
11. Lito Lapid
12. Bong Revilla
13. Ramon Revilla Sr
14. Robert Jaworski
15. Greg Honasan
16. Loi Estrada
17. JV Ejercito
18. Frank Drilon
19. Alan Peter Cayetano
20. Rodolfo Biazon
21. Jinggoy Estrada
22. Robert Barbers
23. Tessie Aquino-Oreta
24. Juan Ponce Enrile
25. Edgardo Angara

the families in the list :

Estrada Family – Loi, JV, Jinggoy
Revilla Family – Ramon Sr., Bong Jr.
Pimentel Family – Aquilino, Koko
Villar Family – Manny, Cynthia

 

 

 

 

 

 

25 senators on Luy list

Estrada, Revilla, Enrile biggest pork beneficiaries

By Nancy C. Carvajal
Philippine Daily Inquirer

 

Third of a series

 

MANILA, Philippines—The names of 25 past and present senators are in the digital files of whistle-blower Benhur Luy detailing transactions Janet Lim-Napoles made from 2002 to 2012—a period during which she channeled congressional Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) allocations to ghost projects and kickbacks.

 

The entries were made upon the instruction of Napoles to Luy, who was then her finance officer. The files were copied by the Inquirer from a hard disk drive (HDD) that Luy’s parents handed over during a visit to its newsroom last year to ask for help in exposing the alleged plunder of state funds by Napoles and her highly placed clients.

 

Luy said his parents did not know the explosive contents of the disk drive.

 

The files showed that the funds were from projects for members of the Commission on Appointments, the minority bloc in the House of Representatives of 2003, the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC), savings from the Department of Agriculture, Department of Agrarian Reforms, allocation for the Senate President Pro Tempore, majority floor leader, and for budget insertions.

 

The records showed that 15 incumbent senators had transactions with Napoles: Juan Ponce Enrile, Ramon Revilla Jr., Jinggoy Estrada, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Vicente “Tito” Sotto, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Gringo Honasan, Loren Legarda, Aquilino Pimentel III, Manuel “Lito” Lapid, Cynthia Villar, JV Ejercito, Franklin Drilon, Ralph Recto and Alan Peter Cayetano.

 

Also in the records were the names of former Senators Edgardo Angara, Manny Villar, Tessie Oreta, Nene Pimentel, Rodolfo Biazon, Robert Jaworski, Robert Barbers, Loi Estrada, Ramon Magsaysay and Ramon Revilla Sr.

 

Luy’s records also showed that Enrile, Revilla and Estrada were Napoles’ longtime clients.

 

Enrile is on record as having used P683 million from 2004 to 2012. But this is still an incomplete figure. The Inquirer still has to complete checking Luy’s records on Enrile’s total PDAF disbursements to Napoles NGOs.

 

Revilla used a total of P1.2 billion, again a figure that is still incomplete as the Inquirer continues to check the Luy files.

 

Estrada tops them all at P1.6 billion, which is still an incomplete figure as the Inquirer continues its examination of the records.

 

Apart from being regular clients of Napoles since 2004, the three senators were also the biggest contributors to the pork barrel funded projects who repeatedly funneled billions of funds to her bogus nongovernment organizations (NGOs). They received at least 50 percent in kickbacks of each project, the files showed.

 

First senator-client

 

Lapid was the first senator to become a client of Napoles. He was then governor of Pampanga. At that time, he received a total of P1,132,500 total cash advance—in US dollars and pesos—on Dec. 20, 2002, March 23, 2003, and May 7, 2003.

 

The first transaction with Lapid, according to the records, was P500,000 on Dec. 20, 2005, with the remarks “given at the Manila Hotel.”

 

In another deal, described as a Commission on Appointment project under the Department of Agriculture, Region 3, but realigned to Guagua, Pampanga, Lapid allocated P5 million and received a “rebate” of P2 million representing 40 percent of the project, the records showed.

 

Cayetano returned money

 

Luy’s records showed that Cayetano allocated P3 million of his PDAF while he was the Taguig-Pateros representative in 2003 intended for communication supply with the DOTC as implementing agency.

 

The records also showed a cash advance of P639,625 was received by “VLL,” but other details in the records showed that P500,000 of the amount was returned by Cayetano to JLN, Napoles’ company. Luy in earlier interviews with the Inquirer said Cayetano declined to enter into transactions with Napoles.

 

Santiago in a letter dated Sept. 5, 2005, and addressed to a Dennis Araullo, regional executive director of the Department of Agriculture, allocated P5 million to Cabadbaran, Agusan del Norte, for financial assistance to coffee growers under ASA-no. 101-2005-315 dated June 14, 2005.

 

Santiago’s rebate

 

On the same date, under Voucher No. 09-4780,  Zenaida Ducut also received “cash bonus from Sen. Miriam Defensor P10 m project DA savings .05 the amount of P100 thousand.”

 

On the Sept. 30, 2005, entry of Luy’s financial records, under the heading JLN cash/ check disbursement, showed that Ducut, the current Energy Regulatory Commission chair, received the rebate in behalf of Santiago.

 

“Full payment received charged from (Santiago) DA savings the amount of P2.5 million under voucher 09-4779,” the records indicated.

 

Marcos, a first-term senator allocated P360 million of his PDAF in 2011 and 2012 covered by 10 special allocation release orders (Saros) through the government-owned National Livelihood Development Corp. (NLDC) as the implementing agency and designated local government units (LGUSs) as conduits to the Napoles organizations.

 

Sotto, senator from 1992 to 2004 and who returned for another term in 2010, also funneled from 2010 to 2012 P228 million of his pork barrel funds to Napoles NGOs through the NLDC and selected LGUs. Sotto also repeatedly assigned the same towns and cities as recipients of his PDAF from 2010 to 2012 with Napoles NGOs as beneficiaries under 12 Saros.

 

Legarda, a senator from 1998 to 2004 and again in 2007, also allocated P200 million of her PDAF in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to NLDC, LGU and Napoles’s NGOs as beneficiaries. Legarda’s allocations were covered by eight Saros.

 

Honasan channeled P107 million of his PDAF to Napoles groups twice, through the NLDC on Sept, 18, 2009 and to the DA on April 1, 2008.

 

‘For Gringo Honasan’

 

On Oct. 22, 2009, another Luy document stated that P1.750 million was transferred to an account of JLN Corp. at the Metrobank Ortigas branch “for Gringo Honasan.”

 

Sen. Cynthia Villar supposedly received P500,000 as kickback allocated for members of the House minority bloc in 2003 with the DOTC as the implementing agency and Jo-Chris Trading as the link to Napoles.

 

JV Ejercito allocated P5 million through the Department of Interior and Local government when he was still San Juan representative in 2011, the records showed.

 

Also on the file was a letter supposedly from Recto dated Aug. 30, 2010, for Agrarian Reform Secretary Virgilio de los Reyes in which he requested  P10 million for agrarian reform projects nationwide. No other record on Recto appears in Luy’s files.

 

In one of Luy’s records under the CA-DA 2005 allocations, Drilon was listed to have been allocated P5 million as head of the Commission on Appointments.

 

One of the letters in Luy’s files showed that Drilon wrote to budget Secretary Florencio Abad on Nov. 22, 2011, and requested for P100-million financial assistance, to be coursed through the DAR secretary. But according to Luy, speaking through his lawyer, Raji Mendoza, “the letter was drafted but no transactions took place, as far as his recollection” was concerned.

 

An April 3, 2007, entry in Luy’s records showed that Angara allocated P50 million of his PDAF in 2007 to 10 municipalities in Mindanao as beneficiaries.

 

Senator Manny Villar in 2003 with his allocation from the Congressional Initiatives Funds and the DOTC as the implementing agency procured equipment supplied by Jo-Chris Trading, owned by Napoles.

 

Pimentel’s cash advances

 

In 2003 and 2004, then Sen. Nene Pimentel allegedly funneled his PDAF to Napoles organizations and received cash advances of totaling P7.6 million in cash and checks all received by a Mon Arcenas between Sept. 9, 2003 and Nov. 6, 2003. The entry also showed that a delivery of a check “was at the Senate.”

 

Oreta, in 2003, allocated P45 million to various soft projects and received P10,890.00 as “cash advance received by Caloy and Johnny,” but Luy’s record showed that she returned the money. The entry also stated that a balance of P1 million was to be returned by Brian Yamsuan, Oreta’s chief of staff, and the project would be completed by another contractor.

 

Oreta also was included in the list of lawmakers in the DOTC project allocation of P4.5 million.

 

Biazon, now Muntinlupa Representative, allocated P92 million of his PDAF in 2004 and 2008 using various agents under implementing agencies Technology Resource Center and the DA based on cash releases records of Luy.

 

Former Sen. Loi Ejercito was also among the lawmakers who allocated the most number of pork barrel projects to Napoles’ NGOs between 2004 and 2008 using P285 million of taxpayers’ money.

 

Jaworksi in 2003 and 2004 allocated P29.l25 million of his PDAF to Napoles NGOs through LGUs in Mindanao and also to the DOTC.

 

Magsaysay allocated P4 million to two provinces in 2004-2005 through the Napoles organizations.

 

Revilla Sr. allocated P169.07 million of his PDAF in projects “nationwide” in 2003 and 2004. His cash advances were in manager’s check and cash received by a Rowena Mendiola. Other cash advances were given by Napoles herself, the records showed.

 

Barbers, who died in 2005, allocated P89 million of his PDAF in 2003 and 2004 in a “nationwide” project. His cash advances were received by a “Canda” and an “Atty. Laloy.”—With Inquirer Research

 

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/602031/25-senators-on-luy-list#ixzz31e6WnUif
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Pulse Asia March 2014 presidentiables survey : don’t panic, it’s only 2014

one fine day at the end of april 2014, we were greeted with headlines on print and broadcast media similar to what rappler.com had – vp jejomar binay an announced candidate for the 2016 presidential election tops all of them with a whopping 40% of the survey answers as the candidate the respondents will vote if the election was held today.

that is like a just little less than 2 years till the may 2016 elections. a long way off till election time.

and that is the reason why the other presidentiables (ahem, mar roxas and alan peter cayetano) should not panic. the standings of the candidates will change dramatically as we approach may 2016. that is guaranteed – dramatic and drastic.

people’s sentiments change over time and so does the behavior of the presidentiables, not to mention the campaign programs and ads the candidates will be releasing before and during the campaign period.  more importantly, studies show that the farther from election time, the more fickle voters are. it says voters get to firm up their choices the nearer election time goes. many start firming up their choices just 1 to 2 weeks before the election. in fact for the swing votes, many firm up their choices just 1 or 2 days before election time.

these type of development can be seen in previous elections where we can see the dramatic changes in the survey standings of the presidentiables.

for posterity, we will be posting here the data tables of the this pulse asia march 2014 presidentiables survey and the other survey results for vice presidentiable and senatoriables. the charts have been picked up from rappler.com (read here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/56725-binay-runaway-winner-pulse-asia-poll)

we were surprised by the strong showing, on third, of senator miriam defensor santiago. her strong stance against the PDAF scam has put her on that spot.

grace poe has come out as second here mainly due to her strong showing in the senate hearings. she has come out as very intelligent and poised in these hearings.

vp jejomar binay coming out as top is no surprise. his position as VP has helped him a lot to be in that spot.

mar roxas although he has not declared he will run for president, but we all know he will run, came in very low at 5th with just 6% (versus binay’s 40%). perhaps his performance during the yolanda storm may have affected him here.

chiz escudero seem to be a perennial favorite for the vice presidential slot. maybe it is time for him to have a go at it.

we are shocked that senator tito sotto is among the top 3 specially when taking at look at where manny pacquaio is. sotto is among the top 3 while pacquaio is way below on the top 18. it is hard to reconcile how sotto a plagiarist can be on top and beat out pacquiao who is a national hero for many pinoys. makes us wonder that perhaps pacquaio is not as favored as we think or more importantly as what he thinks he is.

how should the candidates proceed from this?

• take the results with a mountain of salt
• need to monitor developments
• candidates and planners should draw some conclusions from the survey results
• common denominators should be pulled out
• from these conclusions, they should draw out a research plan
• conduct research based on these results

we think it is important for the candidates to draw learnings from thes results and draw up medium to long-term action plans.

Pulse Asia’s Chief Justice Corona Trial Poll results – the people sees past through prosecution’s incompetence

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=747

• we are surprised at the high number of 84% of the respondents following the developments of the impeachment rial of chief  justice corona. we thought it would not be this high. after all this is not the president of the country like the erap estrada impeachment, just the chief justice. the erap impeachment getting high numbers will not be a surprise but a chief justice impeachment is.
• a high number of those who follow the developments say tv is their media choice at 80%. that means many of the people are watching the live coverage of the impeachment trial. they are getting the developments first hand, seeing the drama unfold in front of their eyes.
• internet for some reason got a very low number – just 1%, we think this is mostly a function of low computer incidence and low internet usage among the poor who accounts for a large majority of the philippine population.
• radio coming in only at 12% is a shock. radio is the dominant media ownership in the country, almost 100% of homes have radio. for radio to be a non factor in medium choice is very surprising. this means tv has become a most important medium in the country. (the advertising industry need to retool some of theoir thinking on this one.)

• the defense was trying to make something out of their charge that the impeachment complaint was fast-tracked at the Hour Of Representatives. we really don’t understand why this is important and what it is for but they seem to be saying because it was railroaded at the house, the complaint is invalid, don’t ask us why because we can;t explain it.
• also we do not think it really matters, the fact is the senate has opened an impeachment court. whether it has been fast-tracked or not no longer matters.
• this table is a practically a split where respondents can’t decide whether it was fast-tracked or not at he HOR. the numbers are practically tied with 32% saying it was fast-tracked while 38% do not think it was fast-tracked.
• looks like the defense team has lost his battle.

this chart to us the most important findings of the poll – how people feel about the guilt or innocence of the the chief justice on the charges brought to him bu the HOR (House Of Representatives).

it is important to take note of this from the Pulse Asia website:

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 26 to March 9, 2012 using face-to-face interviews. The following developments preoccupied Filipinos immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey: (1) the ongoing impeachment trial of Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato C. Corona* ; (2) the arraignment for electoral fraud of former President and incumbent Pampanga Representative Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo; (3) the death and destruction caused by a 6.9 intensity earthquake in the Visayas on 06 February 2012; (4) the commemoration of the 26th anniversary of EDSA People Power I; (5) the controversies involving a few presidential appointees; (6) the death of Negros Occidental Representative Ignacio Arroyo and the fight over his remains; and (7)  the increase in oil prices, fluctuating power rates, declining headline inflation rate, and the record-breaking performance of the Philippine Stock Exchange.

this survey was conducted while the prosecution was still presenting their witnesses and evidence to the court. the defense has not started any of their presentations yet.

• the significant difference in those who believe corona is guilty at 47% versus those who believe he is innocent at 5% is a very significant finding. that means at that point in time when the poll was taken, when the prosecution was still making their case, the people was seeing corona as guilty.
•  we were of the view that the prosecution team was screwing up big time.  we are not lawyers but we can tell they were doing a very bad job. the only time the prosecution did well was when neil tupas, the lead prosecutor delivered his opening speech during the trial. everything after that speech was horrible for the prosecution. he did well because he read a written speech.
• the corona trial became a sad telenovela of “what did the prosecution do wrong this time? the prosecution delivered – they seemed to have done something new that was wrong on a daily basis. we knew that as senator miriam defensor santiago and the presiding judge himself, senator juan ponce enrile  delivered their most impassioned speeches in the trial berating the prosecution team on their latest blunders, incompetence or errors, senator santiago didn;t even bother to sugar coat her words, she just said it in plain, actually elegant and biting english. wha?!
• over and beyond that thick muck of prosecution incompetence, the prosecution in reality was able to get past the court evidence and testimonies that to say the least corona needed to explain to the court and the country or evidence and testimony that can be used by the senator judges to convict corona.
• for the respondents to see through that thick muck of prosecution incompetence and find corona guilty to us is just short of being a miracle or brilliance on the part of the respondents.
• to be fair the incompetence the prosecution showed was not really on the main point of their existence in the impeachment court, but on the almost and everything  they did outside the court and before the impeachment court came into being.  the fact is they were able to get the court to accept testimony and evidence that the senator judges can use to convict corona.
• okay,  we stand corrected, the prosecution also showed incompetence during the trial as they were constantly berated by senators santiago and enrile on their lack of knowledge and skills in presenting evidence and testimony of their witnesses. in other words, the senator judges were saying the prosecution did not know how to properly conduct a trial. that of course was a surprise considering the prosecutors are lawyers who were elected congressmen in their districts. apparently, not all lawyers are created equal and these congressmen who are also lawyers were shortchanged on that aspect when God made them lawyers.
• does that mean the respondents were so brilliantly gifted that they were able to separate the garbage from the prosecution on their lawyering skills versus the evidence they were able to get the court accepted?
• there is no other explanation for it. it looks like the respondents know what a corrupt official is versus one that is not. or an impeachable chief  justice versus one who is not.
• we think the people are just so fed up with corrupt and incompetent government officials that it did not matter even if the messenger of the message is being faulted by santiago on a daily basis.

———
more on this next….

prosecution in corona trial needs a superman to do the closing to win the case

the corona impeachment trial has become a telenovela played out on national tv like an afternoon soap but unlike the telenovelas, this one has stopped taking twists and turns, it has in fact been on a single track – a daily watch of what new blunder the prosecution has been up to this time and who among the senator jurors will be giving the prosecution a lecture on their errors and shortcomings. the usual suspects are senator juan pnce enrile and senator miriam defensor santiago and on occasion the defense lead counsel, serafin cuevas.

this took a bizarre, almost  cataclysmic proportion when senator jinggoy estrada  calls out private prosecutor vitaliano aguirre for covering his ears the whole time senator santiago was giving a first class lecture on the prosecuti0n’s latest blunder of the day.

this could have been just another day for the prosecution but senator santiago was particularly volcanic on this day that we were glued to our seat, with cell phone on hand ready to dial emergency 911 to call for an ambulance to go to the senate  just in case senator santiago had a heart attack.

the irony of it all was on this day the prosecution has rested it’s case. in other words senator santiago’s near heart attack volcanic anger and attorney aguirre’s comic or is it cosmic cover-the-ears antic will be the last image, audio and memory the prosecution will be leaving not only in  the minds of the  public but more importantly in the senator jurors’.

for the record, we had called for the replacement of the prosecution team in this trial almost from the very start. although we began  calling for the replacement of congressman neil tupas as lead prosecutor, it became clear to us that most of the members of the prosecution team were also showing incompetence. this incident with aguirre is just an exclamation point to the many that we have seen in the course of the trial.

the prosecution has closed their presentation. unfortunately, they were not able to close on a high note but on a  note of infamy with the image of attorney aguirre’s hands covering his ears.

is it all lost for the prosecution? well, legally speaking, no not yet. the defense still has to present their evidence and counter evidence. even before that step, the prosecution still has to make a formal offer on the evidence that will be accepted by the court. so far what has been done was the evidence has been marked only. there will of course be a legal battle royal when the prosecution does this. it is expected that the defense will obeject to each and every evidence that has been marked.

we do not how this will go and equally important how the defense will do when it is their thing on the court. for all we know it could be as horrible or wosrt for the defense.

while these questions are still to be answered, it is prudent for the prosecution to assume the worst for themselves. based on current trends in the court, the prosecution need to assume they will be at a great disadvantage by closing time.

we think the prosecution’s closing will be most crucial for them., the closing argument is in essence the summary of their case against corona. not only is it the summary but the closing is supposed to be the most persuasive for them. the idea is that this closing will be the last push to get senator jurors to see the guilt of corona and for them to vote to impeach corona.

for this closing, we think the prosecution need to do the following:

• they don;t just need a lawyer who will do the closing, they need superman to do it for them.. not even clark kent will do, they need superman himself, in his tights, a letter “S” on his chest and a red cape doing the closing.
• they need attorney superman in his most persuasive and in his clearest and sharpest because the prosecution attorneys on their own have muddled the issues in the case.
• the prosecution attorneys have drawn so much attention to everything and anything not related to the case or the evidence needed to convict corona that attorney superman will need to blind the senator jurors to these and get them to just focus on the real evidence that they have presented and just convict corona.
• attorney superman must deliver superhuman logic, superhuman persuasiveness and superhuman clarity.
• we do not know how the tights and cape will do but this attorney superman need to be well respected by the senator jurors, someone the senator jurors see as at least equal to them in stature if not greater. if they can get john f kennedy or ronald reagan to wear a superman costume, that will do it for sure.
• the closing speech of the prosecution SHOULD NOT mention the word and the thought “technicality”. mentioning this will just be whining and will not sit well with the senator jurors. sure, the defense has used technicalities every half step of the way, but it is what defense lawyers do, complaining about technicalities will only insult the intelligence fo the senator jurors.
• the prosecution closing  should completely ignore their stupidity and errors and not mention any of it.  they should all be in denial and hope the senator juroirs do not remember any of it.
• the closing speech should overcome and actually exploit and turn the  lead defense attorney serafin cuevas’ obsession with lectures to their advantage and a negative for the defense. for sure, attorney cuevas will deliver a lecture in his closing. a lecture is in his DNA, it is unavoidable for him. knowing cuevas will go into a lecture should be turned into an advantage by the prosecution.
• as peg, the prosecution team should frame the quality of the closing speech and the attorney superman as convincing senator miriam defensor santiago. the speech writer should  write the speech thinking that this is his goal – to write a speech that will convince santiago. discovering the magic formula on that will make them win the case.

is it impossible? no, we do not think so. we have defined here very specific goals and needs. all that the prosecution need to do is deliver on these. they have a lot of time to get it right, around 4 to 5 weeks. but they should start preparing for the close now.

what the prosecution team needs to do is to be more creative and be very goal obsessed. here is a suggestion on the creativity part – they can stay closer to home and just get ninoy aquino or ferdinand marcos to deliver the closing speech, they are two of the country’s top orators and communicators. that is easy-peasy.

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll For Senatoriables closed – miriam defensor santiago is #1

january 2, 2010; 11am
results of poll as of this time and date – all are known personalities or ex-senators.

1. miriam defensor santiago – 8%
2. pia cayetano – 7%
3. kata inocencio – 6%
4. franklin drilon – 6%
5. bongbong marcos – 6%
6. juan ponce enrile – 6%
7. sergio osmenia III – 5%
8. ralph recto – 5%
9.  sonia roco – 4%
10.   bong revilla – 4%
11.   gilbert remulla – 4%
12.   satur ocampo – 3%
13.   vic sotto – 3%
14.   jinggoy estrada – 3#

 

december 19, 2009; 11am  

 we are now opening a new poll for the senatoriables. we have cut into a short list of senatoriables who we think have at least name recall.

official list of senatorial candidates, below. click to view:

april 2010 pulse asia survey for senators – awareness matters

the april 2010 results of asia pulse’s poll for senators is is a lesson in advertising & marketing 101 – (brand) awareness is the number one issue and achieving it is the first goal of any election campaign.

except for 2, the rest of  the first 14 candidates who have the possibility of entering the top 12 in this election  have high awareness, at least an  80%+ level and most of  them are at the 90%+ level.  the two, biazon and guingona have 52% and 74% respectively.

on the other hand, the rest of the senatorial candidates below the top 14 have very low awareness, many of them below 30%.

awareness is the most basic requirement of any brand in any market and that includes political elections. if the voters do not know you or are not aware of you, how can they prefer or vote for you? after awareness is preference.

the goal of advertising are those things – build awareness and build preference. while not all of the top 14 have tv ads. almost all of them are already known by the voters.

for those wanting to win this election, they will need to fix these two components and advertising is the answer. however, with just a few days till election time, achieving anything even with advertising might be too difficult.  

revilla, estrada and santiago tops pulse aisa poll for senators

the list of senatorial candidates topping the march 2010 pulse asia poll is a mixture of personalities who cannot be any more different. just like the presidentiables, there is no unity or even sameness among them. as in previous senatorial elections, the list is dominated by opposition senators with just a few coming from lakas-kampi.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from March 21 to 28, 2010 using face to face interviews.  Prior to and during the conduct of the survey, several events grabbed the headlines and these are as follows: (1) the Supreme Court’s declaration that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has the authority to appoint the successor of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno and the protests that followed the high court’s decision; (2) various appointments made by the President following the Supreme Court’s ruling; (3) the start of the official campaign season for the local elections; (4) election-related concerns including double registrants in the voters’ list, downgrading of security features in the ballot, and questions regarding the nominees of several party-list groups and Commission on Elections (COMELEC) Chairperson Jose A.R. Melo’s dismissal of a “failure of elections” scenario despite these and other problems; (5) the possible disqualification of several presidential candidates due to failure to abide by election laws regarding airtime limits on their campaign advertisements and placement and size of their campaign materials (e.g., billboards); (6) the expression of support for the Nacionalista Party’s (NP) presidential candidate, Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr., by some allies of President Arroyo in Cebu; (7) reports regarding the falling-out between President Arroyo and Philippine National Police (PNP) Director General Jesus Versoza following the latter’s declaration that he will not support any attempt to extend the President’s term should there be a failure of elections in May 2010; (8) the government’s decision to retain its original growth target of 2.6% to 3.6% despite the El Niño phenomenon; and (9) continued oil price hikes.

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=713