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both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results

June 17, 2013 Leave a comment

there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.

SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:

  • 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
  • 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
  • 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
  • adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
  • only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally

Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.

the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were  showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.

Final Election Results 2013

what does this all mean?

it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.

that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.

the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.

last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.

twitter followers of 2013 Senatoriables – how many are real, how many are fake?

March 16, 2013 Leave a comment

we came across an interesting website on twitter the other day (courtesy of @Simply_Clinton) – twitter audit (http://www.twitteraudit.com/). the website analyses a twitter account’s followers and determines what portion are “real” followers and what is “fake”.

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we assume “real” followers are other twitter accounts with individual humans behind them that follow a twitter account. they are acquired over time who follows an account based on a match on interest, point of view, tweets that are simply interesting or where to get information from.

“fake” followers are bots (internet robots) who are added to the list of followers just to add numbers to the followers list. the thinking is that, the more followers have or the greater the number of followers, the more popular the twitter user/account is. we have all heard of a twitter following contest of some sort between the likes of justin bieber and lady gaga for example. that is the whole idea behind it.

we are guessing someone having a bigger number of followers will feel important or encourage others to follow the person.

apparently, there are internet services from whom you can buy twitter followers. social media practitioners apparently do this all the time for their clients. when you hire a social media practitioner, adding or padding your follower list is one of the things they do for you.

with this in mind, we ran some 2013 senatoriables twitter accounts to find out what is the ratio of “real” vs “fake” twitter followers they have on their accounts.

we do not know if these politicians actually “bought” followers and we are not even giving an opinion on it. maybe they are all “real” followers and that the twitteraudit.com is wrong or giving us bad data or they have a large number of twitter followers whose accounts have become dormant for a long time. these things happen. and we really do not know how accurate or reliable twitteraudit.com is.

take these with a grain  salt, decide on your own what they mean.

for good measure, we also put here our own (@wawam) twitter audit and other politicians who are active on twitter. looking at the other audit results will give you a better gauge of what the data all mean for the rest.

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head to head comparison SWS vs Pulse Asia February 2013 Senatoriables Polls

March 13, 2013 Leave a comment

the good news is that the country has two polling companies doing a great job of capturing the sentiments of voters – SWS (social weather station) and Pulse Asia. it also adds to it that they tend to conduct the polls at about the same time. with the respondent criteria about the same and survey timing very close to each other, comparing the two results is a very good thing to do.

surveys give the people a view, scientific and objective, of what others think about candidates and issues. it can help others shape or confirm their own views. in this complex world of ours, more information is always better.

for candidates and handlers of the candidates, it can be more than informational, it can be very instructive. they can use the results to re-shape, change directions or strengthen their winning strategies or fix and avoid their losing strategies.

but that is very much dependent on the skill sets of the candidates and their handlers on analyzing and understanding surveys. that is the first step.

the second and the more important step is formulating new strategies and plans based on the survey analysis and conclusions.

we are providing here a first step analysis of the  survey results. there are a few more steps on analysis that needs to be done and more steps at formulating action steps in strategy change and plans formulation. but those are for another day.

in the meantime….

sws vs pulse 1

sws vs pulse 2

sws vs pulse 3

sws vs pulse 4

sws vs pulse 5

data sources: Pulse Asia & SWS

also read (click) :

sws rating feb2013

pulse asia rating feb2013

dramatic gains for aquino & poe, dramatic drops for trillanes, zubiri & enrile – pulse asia february 2013 senatoriables poll

March 11, 2013 1 comment

not much has changed among the top 3 ranking senatoriables, legarda, escudero and cayetano alan peter from previous poll.

for this february 2013 pulse asia 2013 senatoriables survey, 15 senatoriables are competing for the top 12 position. in order of highest to lowest ranks as follows:

  1. legarda (Team PNoy)
  2. escudero (Team PNoy)
  3. cayetano alan peter (Team PNoy)
  4. villar, cynthia (Team PNoy) 
  5. ejercito (UNA)
  6. aquino, bam (Team PNoy)
  7. binay (UNA)
  8. poe (Team PNoy)
  9. pimentel (Team PNoy)
  10. honasan (UNA)
  11. enrile, jack (UNA)
  12. trillanes (Team PNoy)
  13. angara (Team PNoy)
  14. zubiri (UNA)
  15. gordon (UNA)

6 senatoriables  are battling for the last 3 positions, the 10th to the 12th, senatoriables honasan, enrile, trillanes, angara, zubiri and gordon who are all tied.

at the bottom among the candidates of the two major coalition parties, UNA and Team PNoy, are mitos magsaysay and tingting cojuangco  both from UNA. their rankings have not changed from previous.

among the 15 candidates fighting for the top 12 spots, 9 are from Team PNoy and 6 are from UNA.

among the top 9, only 2 are from UNA (binay and ejercito) while the rest are from Team PNoy. among the 6 who are battling for the last 3 spots, 4 are from UNA and only 2 are from Team PNoy.

with those rankings, if elections were held today, Team PNoy has a chance of gaining 9 out of the 12 seats at best or 7 out of 12 at worst, a clear majority of the seats.

Team PNoy has generally done very well in this survey.

pulse asia feb2013

source : https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b9qPFV1cRDNGJWVXpKN0ZhZU0/edit

dramatic increases in rank and rating were gained by aquino and poe, both by +9 places who are now tied at 4th place from previous survey at 13th place; and +11.8 percentage points and +11.2 percentage points, respectively.

3 senatoriables suffered dramatic losses in rank and rating, 1 from Team PNoy, trillanes and 2 from UNA, enrile and zubiri.  all three lost 5 places in the rankings although all three still came within the top 12.

pulse rank feb2013

 

 

pulse rank UNA feb2013

 

 

 

pulse rating Pnoy feb2013

 

 

pulse rating UNA feb2013

 

 

 

with 47% of voters not completing 12 senatoriables, dynasty candidates & re-electionists enter top 12

March 3, 2013 Leave a comment

source : http://www.sws.org.ph/

based on this SWS 2013 Senatorables survey – 47% of voters cannot complete all 12 senatoriables while an equal number, 47% can complete all 12. (balance 6% are undecided or made invalid markings).  on average, all voters will just be able to write down 9 names for the 12 senatoriable slots.

we think 47% unable to complete all 12 is a huge number. what that may are the following :

  • there is not enough 12 “good men” among the 33 senatoriables running for office. most are unworthy of being elected
  • not enough information about the candidates are reaching voters for them to complete the 12. this is just the start of the campaign period, let us hope this will change soon.

although still on the early stages of the campaign, at this point in time, these are the candidates who are benefiting from this situation and are getting better chances at getting elected :

  • dynasty candidates – children, siblings or spouses of elected officials who are running for senator
  • incumbent senators running for reelection  

based on the survey, of the top 12, 6 are candidates for reelection – legarda, escudero, cayetano, pimentel, trillanes and zubiri. we consider zubiri for reelection since he did serve a term in the senate. a large number in the top 12 are dynasty candidates –   villar, binay, ejercito aquino and angara. only 1 senatoriable, poe does not belong to any one of these groups.

the results of this survey would be so different if the 47% who did not complete the 12 spots would complete their list.

dynasty candidates are running on the basis of having the same family name as elected officials, that gives them a built-in advantage of being remembered more easily and have better chances of getting elected. not completing your list of 12 makes that advantage work for them for real.

completing the list of 12, say with names who are not re-electionists or dynasty candidates will have the effect of pushing down the dynasty candidates from the top 12.  

dramatic drops for UNA & dramatic increases for Team PNoy in february SWS sentatoriables survey

February 28, 2013 2 comments

the latest february 2013 SWS survey, on the 2013 senatoriables is characterized by dramatic drops and dramatic increases in rankings and/or ratings by some senatoriables. the dramatic drops are  all on UNA senatoriables while the dramatic increases were  on Team PNoy senatoriables.

this survey results are grim and bad news for many UNA senatoriables and for the whole party and great news for  Team PNoy and  specific senatoriables.

this is how bad it is for the UNA senatoriables :

  • 9 out of the top 12 senatoriables belong to the admin PNoy coalition with the UNA opposition getting only 3
  • 3 UNA senatoriables dropped out of the top 12 while 2 from  Team PNoy barged into the top 12
  • 6 out 12 Team PNoy senatoriables gained in rank (aquino, poe, villar, madrigal, trillanes and angara), 6 stayed the same (cayetano, escudero, hontiveros, legarda, magsaysay r, pimentel)
  • 6 out of 9 UNA senatoriables declined in rank (honasan, ejercito, enrile, gordon, maceda, zubiri), only 2 gained (binay, magsaysay)  while 1 stayed the same (cojuangco)

SWS PNoy Rank

SWS UNA Rank

  • 5 in 12 of the Team PNoy senatoriables gained in ratings (aquino, madrigal, poe, trillanes, villar), 4 stayed (angara, escudero, hontiveros, pimentel) while only 3 lost cayetano, legarda, magsaysay r). these three losses were minimal with 2 losing only 1 percentage point while the 3rd lost 2 percentage points
  • on the other hand, 7 out of 9 senatoriables of UNA lost ratings (cojuangco, ejercito, enrile, gordon, honasan, maceda, zubiri), 1 the same (magsaysay m)  and only 1 gained (binay).
  • most of the dramatic loses in rankings and/or ratings were suffered by the UNA senatoriables – jv ejercito, migz zubiri, jack enrile, gringo honasan and ernie maceda
  • consequently, most of the dramatic gains in ranking and ratings were gained by Team PNoy senatoriables – grace poe, bam aquino, jamby madrigal and cynthia villar
  • no changes occurred for UNA bottom dweller mitos magsaysay, tingting cojuangco and ernie maceda

sws PNoy Rating

sws UNA Rating

what can explain the dramatic loses by the UNA senatoriables?

we think its a brand positioning blunder by UNA. we read it first from statements from mitos magsaysay where she said UNA wanted “aquino to succeed” and that their role is to give “constructive criticism”. (read here: malacanang delivers THE BOMB on senatoriable mitos magsaysay)

a few days after that, jv ejercito basically said the same thing, plus the UNA spokesman. some of them even said UNA was not necessarily an opposition party. instead of saying they are an opposition party, they were saying things like they will be “fiscalizers”. why then would voters favor UNA when the president himself has his own set of senatoriables?

these were very confusing statements by the UNA senatoriables and the UNA party. people must have wondered  if UNA was not the opposition party, what are they then? that can mean they are part of the administration. if they are part of the administration, why do they have competing senatoriables to that of the admin party?

this was a very basic and fundamental blunder by UNA. instead of differentiating  themselves against Team PNoy, they were actually making themselves similar to their opponents. two of the key elements of brand building is uniqueness and differentiation versus competition. instead of achieving those, they were actually making themselves similar. the result is UNA’s brand positioning became invisible in the eyes of the voters. being invisible allows the voters to only see Team PNoy.

Team PNoy released their TV ads soon after. statements by jv ejercito and the UNA party in reaction to the TV ad did not help the party either and made it worst for them.

Ejercito explained where UNA stands when it comes to the Aquino administration. They support his platform of good governance but they want to keep the Senate as an independent institution to keep the administration in check.

“We admit that the President is very popular. We have supported the President on his thrust for good governance. But sometimes when you are too popular, you do not know anymore the pulse of the people,” he said.

http://www.rappler.com/nation/21139-jv-ejercito-to-team-pnoy-why-the-impostor-tag

ejercito’s words explain the problem UNA created for  themselves. he did say the party supports aquino in his platform of good governance. aquino was elected by a landslide vote and continue to be the country’s most popular president on the basis of a good governance election promise and actions during his term. ejercito simply acknowledged aquino is doing well which we think to many voters would mean they should favor the senators aquino is supporting.

UNA was not defining themselves in the mind of the voters. what they were doing instead was propping up even more an already popular president and this president has his own list of senatoriables.

in marketing and advertising, you never talk about your competition, you talk about yourself and how good you are and what you can do that competition cannot. if you talk about competition, you do so only to show their weakness or failure. in this case UNA was not even mentioning any failure or weakness of aquino or Team PNoy. ejercito even praised the achievements and strengths of aquino.

UNA’s blunder is not just very bad brand positioning, we think its really a detrimental strategic blunder. we are guessing that they did research and found out that noynoy aquino is a very popular president and that noynoy aquino is the strongest endorser in philippine politics bar none.

UNA was unable to figure what they can do to counter this high popularity of noynoy aquino. we think their biggest error is thinking that since aquino is very popular, they should not go against him. and that thinking is very much like giving up on the election even before it started.

 this kind of results in the surveys with the kind of competition and smarts or lack of smarts by UNA is not surprising. Team PNoy must be very pleased with the way UNA is handling their campaign.

—-

source of SWS survey :    http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=&title=Team-PNoy-takes-the-lead-in-latest-SWS-BW-poll&id=66397#

Team PNoy takes the lead in latest SWS-BW poll

2013 Senatoriables Poll now open – vote here

February 16, 2013 5 comments

welcome to The Presidentiables Blog 2013 Senatoriables Poll!

the list only has the major senatoriables running for the 2013 election. the list is short of the 30+ official candidates for senators. the pictures of the senatoriables with different sizes and shapes were hardly chosen as they were picked up from whatever our friend Google Image gave us.

this is an unscientific poll given that no random sampling has been done and there was no vetting of respondents. anyone with an internet connection can cast their vote in this poll. obviously only those with an internet connection are the respondents in this poll which is hardly reflective of the actual voting population.

but candidates and supporters can use the results for bragging rights.

they can also use the poll results as a gauge of the size of the support candidates are getting out of netizens. respondents who vote here are social media users and they can be harnessed to promote the candidacy of senatoriables. as it has been shown in the most recent months, Philippine netizens who are in social media is a very potent force who can influence national life and behavior or attitudes of national leaders. a candidate who gets higher votes than others here can say they have bigger netizen support. the question then is how can this candidate harness the netizen support for more support in the internet and how to make this spill over to traditional media and real world voting by election time.

make your vote count! you will be given only 12 votes in this list. come back here from time to time and find out who is being chosen by readers of this blog.

thank you all and good luck, senatoriables.

—–

please read comments for updates in this poll.

VOTE HERE

notes :

  • the software will allow you to vote for a maximum of only 12 candidates.
  • after you cast your vote, you can click “view results” if you are not taken to the results portion
  • poll opened on february 16, 2013
  • poll will close on day before election day
  • follow us on twitter -> @wawam

note that the pictures here are arranged in alphabetical order based on their first name. that is nearly scientific.

——

if you have a twitter account, please use these hash tags:

2013 hash tags

2013 Senatoriables SWS survey – cynthia villar should fire her advertising agency

January 28, 2013 9 comments

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key points on the top 12:

  • top three continue to be legarda, escudero and cayetano (alan peter)  in that order. they have been the same top three in the three surveys conducted by SWS
  • among the top 12, poe had the largest increase in ranking, by 10 places to rank #10 from rank #20 in the previous survey
  • other biggest increases in rank are for enrile (jack) at +2, now #8  and honasan  at +3, now #5
  • cayetano and enrile have been running tv political ads and may be showing its impact in the rankings
  • the largest decrease in ranking is with villar (cynthia) who dropped -4 places, now #8 from #4. it appears villar’s heavy tv advertising is not working for her.
  • it’s interesting that villar’s first name is officially listed in the Comelec and we assume on the official ballot as “Cynthia Misis Hanepbuhay”. this will probably be villar’s positioning in her ad campaigns
  • other biggest decreases in ranking are on binay (nancy), -3 places to now #12 from #9 and zubiri -2 places now #7

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key points on the bottom 13 to 24:

  • a major increase  was gained by villanueva who now place at #23. he was not on the top 24 in the two previous surveys. this is the result of his announcing his candidacy.
  •  the following suffered in ranking –  aquino, madrigal, maceda, magsaysay (mitos) and casino. 

we would recommend the following: 

  • villar to fire her advertising agency and immediately change her advertising campaign. her ads even though aired very early and spent heavily is not working for her. 
  • it is still too early to tell. these rankings will still change and some could be dramatic changes as the real campaign starts.
  • candidates should be doing heavy voter research now for the purpose of improving or airing new political ads.

complete official list of senatoriables in the 2013 election (33 candidates)

January 24, 2013 Leave a comment

  1. ALCANTARA, SAMSON (SJS) (SOCIAL JUSTICE SOCIETY)
  2. ANGARA, EDGARDO (LDP) (LABAN NG DEMOKRATIKONG PILIPINO)
  3. AQUINO, BENIGNO BAM (LP) (LIBERAL PARTY)
  4. BELGICA, GRECO (DPP) (DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES)
  5. BINAY, NANCY (UNA) (UNITED NATIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  6. CASIÑO, TEDDY (INDEPENDENT)
  7. CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (NP) (NACIONALIST PARTY)
  8. COJUANGCO, TINGTING (UNA) (UNITED NATIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  9. DAVID, LITO (KPTRAN) (ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY)
  10. DELOS REYES,JC (KPTRAN) (ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY)
  11. EJERCITO ESTRADA, JV (UNA) (UNITED NATIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  12. ENRILE, JUAN PONCE JR.(NPC) (NATIONALIST PEOPLE’S COALITION)
  13. ESCUDERO, CHIZ (INDEPENDENT)
  14. FALCONE, BAL (DPP) (DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES)
  15. GORDON, DICK (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  16. HAGEDORN, ED (INDEPENDENT)
  17. HONASAN, GRINGO (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  18. HONTIVEROS, RISA (AKBAYAN) (AKBAYAN CITIZENS’ ACTION PARTY)
  19. LEGARDA, LOREN (NPC) (NATIONALIST PEOPLE’S COALITION)
  20. LLASOS, MARWIL (KPTRAN) (ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY)
  21. MACEDA, MANONG ERNIE (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  22. MADRIGAL, JAMBY (LP) (LIBERAL PARTY)
  23. MAGSAYSAY, MITOS (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)
  24. MAGSAYSAY, RAMON JR. (LP) (LIBERAL PARTY)
  25. MONTAÑO, MON (INDEPENDENT)
  26. PENSON, RICARDO (INDEPENDENT)
  27. PIMENTEL, KOKO (PDP) (PARTIDO NG DEMOKRATIKONG PILIPINO-LABAN)
  28. POE, GRACE (INDEPENDENT)
  29. SEÑERES, CHRISTIAN (DPP) (DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES)
  30. TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV (NP) (NACIONALISTA PARTY)
  31. VILLANUEVA, BRO.EDDIE (BP) (BANGON PILIPNAS PARTY)
  32. VILLAR,CYNTHIA HANEPBUHAY (NP) (NACIONALISTA PARTY)
  33. ZUBIRI, MIGZ (UNA) (UNITED NACIONALIST ALLIANCE)

source: http://www.comelec.gov.ph/?r=Elections/2013natloc/ListOfCandidates/CertifiedListOfCandidates

Villarroyo – the most powerful word of the 2010 election

May 4, 2010 1 comment

the 2010 election will be remembered for many things some good and some bad. there will also be losers and a winner. but one word will stand out, it can be the word for the 2010 election – Villarroyo.

it is a very creative term, two names moulded into one, giving it a precise meaning to a complex concept – that villar is arroyo’s secret candidate in the 2010 election.

it did not matter that the declared candidate of arroyo is gilbert teodoro, the idea was putting a seed of doubt in the minds of voters about who the candidate is of the evil one.

arroyo has been seen as the exclusive owner of  the kiss of death for those seeking public office. she showed she had that during the last senatorial elections where almost all of  the administration candidates lost in that election while  almost all of the opposition senatorial candidates won senatorial seats.

the administration during that time was boasting of its good economic record. the malacanang press bureau was releasing a lot of economic data boasting it was under the arroyo administration that had good economic results.

the numbers were  good but real life was not for most of the people – jobs were scarce, unemployment high and hunger were also high. since that was just a senatorial election, the people took its anger towards the administration candidates by voting those who were going against them who were mostly opposition senatorial candidates. that election was a protest vote against arroyo, a referndum on her perfromance as president.

arroyo’s kiss of death is as potent then as it is now with gilbert teodoro, the newest recipient of arroyo’s kis of death. his ratings continue to suffer in the polls with just 7% in the latest reading, getting only as high 9% on previous tallies. his ratings hardly moved from the time he entered the competition.

teodoro was largely an unknown candidate to voters having no previous elected national position and just two years of a cabinet post in the arroyo administration, the defense portfolio which by its very nature is a low key cabinet position.

he came into the election as an unknown and unmarked. arroyo’s kiss of death was the only mark that was on him and that did not help at all. the teodoro campaign was obsessed with playing it down, the two of them never photographed together and the traditional raising of hands to proclaim a candidacy not done when teodoro was proclaimed standard bearer of arroyo’s political party, lakas-kampi-cmd.

the villarroyo name may not have have the same kind of power asarroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro had, but we think it certainly played a crucial role in this election. we think it had the power of concretizing the idea of the negative in just ten letters.

developments in the campaign also helped give the term villarroyo some potent life. at the time this was coined and released into the public’s mind, the headlines talked about the disintegration of the administration party, lakas-kampi-cmd, with many of its members and even its key officers abandoning the party to join the LP and the NP.

there were also reports that mike arroyo, gloria’s beloved partner was in talks with manny villar and had dropped support on teodoro. teodoro’s own party helped to put very dry wood into the smouldering  fire with it’s members, some key officers and even those working for the teodoro and manzano campaigns complaining about lack of funds to no support coming from lakas-kampi-cmd to their campaign efforts.

they did not have to tell us that as we witnessed that by ourselves. during that time, we hardly saw any tv ads for teodoro and manzano. (in fact todate, manzano has had no tv ad for himself or with him with his presidential candidate).

taking all of it together, it forms into a composite of many different things that actually fit and made sense. we saw that villar was continuing to put on air heavy advertising at that time and that true to critics, he really never went against arroyo as much for example mar roxas or even noynoy aquino.

our simple minds, picking up simple things did form a great, sensible and powerful word – villarroyo.

if you think about it – the whole story seems like a complex plot from a political drama movie. it looked like a script was written for it and got unfolded right in front of our eyes.

or is it destiny speaking here? there is no way any human could have conspired to make the last two letters of villar as the first two letters of arroyo’s last name.

villarroyo –  a perfect fit of two names, the most powerful word in the 2010 election. it will be the one word that was able to bring down billions of pesos in advertising and marketing expense and a presidential candidate who almost made it.

~~mindscape landmark~~
carlo arvisu

gloria macapagal arroyo is gilbert teodoro’s deadliest opponent

April 12, 2010 2 comments

gloria macapagal arroyo's performance rating reaches a new historic low

dramatic drops across all areas and across all demographics

these are very distressing numbers not only for president arroyo but also for gilbert teodoro, the standard bearer of arroyo’s political party lakas-kampi-cmd.

in the past weeks, the talk of arroyo abandoning teodoro in favor of  manny villar or villarroyo is material for headlines and the front pages of newspapers and tv newscasts.  the other headline and front page content is the disintegration of lakas-kampi-cmd with key officers abandoning the party, candidates complaining and members moving out of the party to join the NP or the LP.

to fix the first one, arroyo sent out to the press her word ordering her  troops, her party mates to support teodoro, not only to vote for him but to campaign for him.  this was the first time after a very long time that arroyo ever spoke of  teodoro in this manner.  arroyo has never come out actually stating her support for teodoro.  even during the proclamation of teodoro as the standard bearer of  lakas-kampi, arroyo did not raise the hands of teodoro as is the tradition in philippine politics. she did not even give a speech during the event.

that was the last time we saw arroyo and teodoro in the same room. she even resigned as party chair and gave it to teodoro. all these were meant to distance herself from teodoro acting on the realization that arroyo’s endorsement is a kiss of death on teodoro’s chances of winning the election.

for some reason, arroyo and lakas-kampi broke away from that strategy when arroyo gave marching orders for her party mates to campaign for teodoro. that had the effect of reminding people that arroyo supports teodoro in this campaign.

with these performance ratings of arroyo hitting a new historical low, this outing of arroyo in support of teodoro is a very grave and fatal tactical error. teodoro was just whole heatedly endorsed by the most unpopular national leader of the country. her words, because of her unpopularity will not be good for teodoro, it will harm him even more.

teodoro is already being pushed down in the polls because of the association of teodoro with arroyo. arroyo coming out more directly about it id like pouring alcohol over a open wound.

with arroyo as party mate, teodoro does not need opponents in this election. in fact we think had arroyo endorsed or expressed her support for tedoro’s rivals, she would have a better chance of helping teodoro get elected as president in may 2010.

abs-cbn : source of noynoy aquino psych report are 2 NP members

April 9, 2010 7 comments

now that the psychiatric report on noynoy aquino has been established as a fake, the next question that need to be answered is who released the report to media?

in tonight’s abs-cbn tv patrol world news report, abs-cbn apparently got the reports first, then it was published in an  internet blogsite  (blog  has since been taken down).

abs-cbn said “they got the information from 2 independent sources from the NP” (nationalista party) of manny villar.  asked to reveal the names, abs-cbn refuses to do so because of  journalistic ethics where they protect the identity of their sources.

that confuses us.  what is the difference between revealing the names of the people who gave them the report versus identifying the political party, the NP, where the sources are members of ? we don’t think there is really much difference  from an ethics point of view.

revealing the political party to whom the sources belong to is as much a journalism ethics violation as revealing their specific names. the individuals may not be tainted but the political party is tainted.

the NP has denied it or it’s members have released the fake report but this adds to the sleaze factor that  the NP and in particular manny villar is being pulled in the polls. we think what is hurting villar in this election is the C-5 corruption controversy, then followed by the villarroyo charge. this sleaze factor will prevent others to consider villar and solidify the loyalty of aquino supporters.

the other part that we don’t understand is this – the NP actually identified the names of members of the NP who could have “possibly” been the source of the fake document.

He said that 6 officials that could possibly had been the source of the documents – Sen. Manuel Villar, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, Rimpy Bondoc, Adel Tamano, NP executive director Atty. Vicky Loanzon, and himself – have already denied that they were the source of the document.

what is the point of identifying them? so now, we have names in our minds who could have been sleazy enough to release the  fake report.  naming the possibilities even though they have denied it does not do anything good for any of them nor the party. what in fact it does as put question marks on the integrity of all the names mentioned.

this is a crazy world – that is one of our conclusions out of this one. things don’t match up and things don’t make sense. must be election fever.

MANILA, Philippines  – Nacionalista Party spokesperson and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla on Friday challenged ABS-CBN News to reveal the source of the bogus psychological report of Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno Aquino III.

Remulla challenged the news organization to reveal the sources of the “document” that said Aquino suffered a psychiatric ailment.

ABS-CBN News said they got the information from 2 independent sources from the NP.

Remulla, however, denied that the document, which Aquino and the LP said was fake, came from within the NP.

He said that 6 officials that could possibly had been the source of the documents – Sen. Manuel Villar, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, Rimpy Bondoc, Adel Tamano, NP executive director Atty. Vicky Loanzon, and himself – have already denied that they were the source of the document.

Remulla said that if they were the source of the document, they would not have given those to ABS-CBN, which the party sees as “biased” for Aquino.

However, when he was asked what would happen if ABS-CBN News refused to give the names of their sources due to journalistic ethics, Remulla, a former journalist himself, said that the “credibility” of both NP and the news organization would be in jeopardy if the sources’ identities are not revealed.

Remulla said that if ABS-CBN News does not reveal its source, the organization should issue an apology.

NP vice presidential bet Loren Legarda, meanwhile, said she does not know about any psychological record of Aquino.

She also denied she is the source of the document, especially after she asked the LP on Thursday to stop their ‘below the belt’ accusations.

NP senatorial bet Ramon Mitra III said the document might have come from LP themselves.

Another member of NP’s senatorial slate, Liza Maza, meanwhile said that they should ask the reporter directly to reveal the source.

ABS-CBN’s reply

ABS-CBN News, however, stood its ground and said it won’t reveal its sources.

“We respect the confidentiality of our sources. While it’s tempting to take the Nacionalista Party’s challenge, it violates a sacred rule of journalism,” Maria Ressa, ABS-CBN News and Current Affairs head, said in a statement.

“Two sources from the Nacionalista Party – independently – gave ABS-CBN an alleged psychiatric analysis of Sen. Benigno Aquino III before it started to spread online and on text,” the statement said.

“Two weeks ago, we revealed that sources from the Liberal Party gave ABS-CBN documents questioning Sen. Manuel Villar’s ad before the information spread online and on text,” the statement also said.

“It’s our job to be transparent to the public we serve,” it added. With a report from Alvin Elchico, ABS-CBN News

source: http://abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04/09/10/np-abs-cbn-reveal-source-fake-noynoy-psych-report

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