Archive

Posts Tagged ‘philippine election surveys’

Pulse Asia March 2014 presidentiables survey : don’t panic, it’s only 2014

May 1, 2014 Leave a comment

one fine day at the end of april 2014, we were greeted with headlines on print and broadcast media similar to what rappler.com had – vp jejomar binay an announced candidate for the 2016 presidential election tops all of them with a whopping 40% of the survey answers as the candidate mar2014 Pulse Rapplerthe respondents will vote if the election was held today.

that is like a just little less than 2 years till the may 2016 elections. a long way off till election time.

and that is the reason why the other presidentiables (ahem, mar roxas and alan peter cayetano) should not panic. the standings of the candidates will change dramatically as we approach may 2016. that is guaranteed – dramatic and drastic.

people’s sentiments change over time and so does the behavior of the presidentiables, not to mention the campaign programs and ads the candidates will be releasing before and during the campaign period.  more importantly, studies show that the farther from election time, the more fickle voters are. it says voters get to firm up their choices the nearer election time goes. many start firming up their choices just 1 to 2 weeks before the election. in fact for the swing votes, many firm up their choices just 1 or 2 days before election time.

these type of development can be seen in previous elections where we can see the dramatic changes in the survey standings of the presidentiables.

for posterity, we will be posting here the data tables of the this pulse asia march 2014 presidentiables survey and the other survey results for vice presidentiable and senatoriables. the charts have been picked up from rappler.com (read here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/56725-binay-runaway-winner-pulse-asia-poll)

mar2014 Presidential

we were surprised by the strong showing, on third, of senator miriam defensor santiago. her strong stance against the PDAF scam has put her on that spot.

grace poe has come out as second here mainly due to her strong showing in the senate hearings. she has come out as very intelligent and poised in these hearings.

vp jejomar binay coming out as top is no surprise. his position as VP has helped him a lot to be in that spot.

mar roxas although he has not declared he will run for president, but we all know he will run, came in very low at 5th with just 6% (versus binay’s 40%). perhaps his performance during the yolanda storm may have affected him here.

mar2014 VP

chiz escudero seem to be a perennial favorite for the vice presidential slot. maybe it is time for him to have a go at it.

mar2014 senators

we are shocked that senator tito sotto is among the top 3 specially when taking at look at where manny pacquaio is. sotto is among the top 3 while pacquaio is way below on the top 18. it is hard to reconcile how sotto a plagiarist can be on top and beat out pacquiao who is a national hero for many pinoys. makes us wonder that perhaps pacquaio is not as favored as we think or more importantly as what he thinks he is.

mar2014 senators 2

how should the candidates proceed from this?

  • take the results with a mountain of salt
  • need to monitor developments
  • candidates and planners should draw some conclusions from the survey results
  • common denominators should be pulled out
  • from these conclusions, they should draw out a research plan
  • conduct research based on these results

we think it is important for the candidates to draw learnings from thes results and draw up medium to long-term action plans.

fresh start for 2010 Presidentiables Poll – december 1, 2009

November 24, 2009 2 comments

we like to announce that starting first week of december, 2009, we will close the the existing 2010 presidentiables poll in this blog and will start a new one in its place.

we will know by december 1 all the official candidates for the 2010 presidential election and would like to capture readers sentiments on the official list of candidates. doing a new poll will also allow others who have voted here before to vote again. at present the program only allows 1 vote per user. that means if you voted before and the presidentiable you voted withdrew, you can’t vote again.

we like to thank everyone for participating in our poll. it is i think one of the more successful polls in the internet on philippine presidentiables with many thousands of readers casting their vote. we hope they will come bacl  here and vote again in the new poll in december.

 

is erap estrada back and poised to be the next president of the country?

November 23, 2008 Leave a comment

(click chart image for bigger view)

think about it – will the philippines have a convicted criminal as the next president of the philippines? if that happens, will the international community be able to respect the president erap and the country?

erap estrada has been convicted of “economic plunder” by the philippine courts. a plunder conviction came with it a life sentence in jail and being convicted more than once for economic plunder, erap would have needed to die and live again to fully serve his jail sentence.

but that was not to be. president gloria macapagal arroyo geve erap a presidential pardon for his crimes and was set free. arroyo seemed to have a very soft heart for erap. months before the conviction, arroyo with lightning speed abolished the death penalty in the country. economic plunder was one crime that qualified for a death penatly. arroyo did not only save erap once, she did so twice.

and now we have the latest survey results for the presidentiables where we see erap among the top three – vice president de castro at 18%, convicted criminal estrada at 17% and senator and ex-senate president manny villar at 17%.

erap’s performance in the recent polls is remarkable considering that almost exactly one year ago, the same poll showed erap was not even mentioned or at least got less than 0.5%.

is erap back?

while erap’s ratings now are truly phenomenal, it is still too early to tell. election polls like these are the most volatile – the rankings can have dramatic changes over time. the closer to the actual election, the firmer the poll results. the fact is respondents or voters make up their minds closest to the actual election time. it’s very possible respondents who gave their answers in this survey, more than a year from the actual election, may not have taken their answers seriously and did not really give it much thought.

an equally important factor is that among other things, the political and economic situation for sure will be very different one year from now. these factors certainly play a significant role in voters choices for president.

distant as it may seem, you have to think about this —- can you accept that the next president of the country will be a convicted criminal?

 

source of survey: pulse asia at http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=659

%d bloggers like this: