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Pulse Asia survey – the poor feel the economy is worse now than last year

August 1, 2013 Leave a comment

the total country numbers are not very different in the june 2013 survey versus the previous survey, done in march 2013.  but the specifics of the numbers tell a different story in this latest Pulse Asia survey on how filipinos feel about the economy compared to last year.

just like previous survey held in march 2013, most of the respondents surveyed felt the economy is the same this year versus last year – 43% in june 2013 versus 42% in march 2013. there is a slight decrease in respondents, by -5% points who think the economy is better this year than previous year to 28% from 33%. consequently, a slight increase showed in respondents saying the economy is worse this year from previous – to 29% from 25%.

but the national picture is just half the story. going down to the details by area and socio-eco class is where the real story is.

in these numbers, the poor are saying the economy this year is worst than last year.

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source : https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b9qPFV1cRDUWlxQUxRN2E1Yzg/edit?pli=1

there is a drop in numbers for those who feel the economy is better than last year across all socio-eco classes – 37% to 30% for ABC; 35% to 30% for D and 28% to 20%.

that is consistent with an increase in numbers who feel the economy is worse than previous year  specifically among the poor – to 37% from 32% among the E and to 28% from 22% among the D. no change among the ABC at 22%.

looking at the areas, there is a very dramatic increase in the balance Luzon or provincial Luzon areas where it deteriorated to 24% from the previous 14%. areas outside metro manila or the NCR is where most of the poor reside.

there is not much to look at among those who think the economy has remained the same as the numbers are about the same in the latest survey versus the previous except for NCR where a huge jump occurred to 50% from 39%.

there were also dramatic drops in those who think the economy is better than previous year in NCR to 25% from 40%.

from a total country perspective, the number of those who think the economy is the same versus last year did not change but the number of those who think the economy is better dropped to 28% from 33% and consequently those who thought the economy is worse increased to 29% from 24%.

based on the numbers this more pessimistic view of the economy, those thinking it became worse that last year are coming from the poor, those who belong to the DE socio-eco classes who come from the provincial areas outside of NCR.

the rich and poor divide has always been the key issue in the philippines. these just underscores the fact that the country needs to do even much more to alleviate poverty with a specific target of getting the improving and impressive  GDP growth numbers benefiting much more the poor than the rich.

the rich from NCR & urban areas abandons aquino, grossly dissatisfied with president’s performance – SWS survey

June 12, 2012 1 comment

president noynoy aquino’s net satisfaction hit rock bottom since he took office in the latest SWS  presidential performance survey, going down to +42. while this is still on the “good” level as SWS categorizes it, the worry part is that it may be the start of a  perilous  dropping trend.

aquino is admittedly the country’s most popular president of the country when he won the election in a landslide  and his net satisfaction ratings starting off at a very high level. the contrast of his net satisfaction rating reaching an all time low came as a shock to malacanang that it has taken the silly step of asking SWS to explain the drop.

source : http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/261508/news/nation/malaca-wants-sws-to-explain-drop-in-pnoys-ratings

the biggest contributor to aquino’s over-all net satisfaction rating is the rich or the ABC socio-eco class abandoning aquino.   his net satisfaction ratings suffered a significant deterioration on all key indicators, with a  total net satisfaction drop of 37% points to +25% net satisfied from +62% in the most recent May 2012 poll from the previous March 2012 poll.

this total net satisfaction was pulled down by a significant deterioration of +25% points. that is about a one third drop among the ABC socio-eco class.  there was also a significant increase of ABC respondents dissatisfied  with aquino with an increase of +13% points. almost a doubling from previous poll from 16% dissatisfied to now 29% dissatisfied.

another contributor to the drop  in net satisfaction rating of aquino  is NCR, where it also showed a dramatic deterioration  of -34% points in net satisfaction,  almost as large as the drop among the ABC, to only +18% from the previous period of +52%.

there was a significant deterioration in number of people from the NCR who were satisfied in aquino’s performance from +72% to +48% a drop of -24% points. consequently the number of people dissatisfied in the performance of aquino from the NCR increased from 20% to 30% , a huge increase of +10% points. that is a huge 50% increase.

in this poll period, those from the urban areas also showed a big drop in net satisfaction in the performance of aquino to +35% points from +45% points from previous polling period. this shows a high -10% points drop. the  huge drop in net satisfaction among those living in urban areas was driven by a high drop in number of people who were satisfied with the performance of aquino with a -9% point decrease from previous period; to 59% from 68%. dissatisfaction ratings stayed about the same at 24% in this polling period from 23% of previous period.

in summary the group of pinoys most responsible for the drop in net satisfaction rating of president aquino are the rich who belong to the ABC soci-eco class who live in NCR and urban areas. it appears to us this group of pinoys have abandoned aquino.

this group of people are the educated and the more enlightened  about national issues and problems. it is interesting to note that this kind of dramatic drops did not occur in the rest of luzon, visayas, mindanao and other socio-eco classes including rural areas. the period was marked with almost weekly news of price increases in oil and transport fares.  these increases in prices may be added to the perception that the aquino administration has not been doing enough to help the economy.

 

satisfaction ratings do shift over time, and almost always they drop from its peak which usually is at the start when the president assumes office. gravity applies to these performance satisfaction ratings as they usually erode. people give the new president high ratings at the start as it comes from a just concluded election. as everyday problems and challenges of governance occur, people change their minds as they are able to gauge the president up close and over and beyond election promises which are almost always good things.

 the upside for president aquino is that the drop that his net satisfaction ratings  have suffered from the start of his office to period 8 of the polling time frame is not the worst among the four presidents before him.

aquino’s net satisfaction ratings drop  is just the third worst  with -18% points  following erap who is on top with -47% points and followed second by arroyo at – 20% points. in this comparison, to us the most telling for aquino is the closeness to arroyo’s drop in net satisfaction ratings. to be compared to arroyo is perhaps the worst that anyone can do for aquino.

erap’s massive drop in net satisfaction ratings after 8 polling periods is understandable as he was involved in an impeachment trial during the time of the survey while the drop in arroyo’s net satisfaction may be attributed to mostly disappointment in performance as president.

it is difficult to find comfort in these numbers for aquino. it may be just a fluke or this can be the start of a real strong downtrend net satisfaction rating for him. while the president is still on the positive side, getting a negative as arroyo had gotten during the last years of her term would be very disappointing.

source : rappler.com

in many ways, it is understandable that malacanang is anxious about these poll results.

the economy has done well during the polling period  in march 2012 as the government reported a very impressive +6.4% GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2012, the second highest in asia next to china and one that surprised and exceeded expectations and forecasts.

add to that the stellar performance of the philippine stock market where it is the best performing in the world  which has broken historic highs 20 times since january this year alone.

there is difficulty in reconciling  how the rich who belong the ABC socio-eco class has abandoned aquino and whose ranks have shown dramatic shifts in satisfaction disfavoring the president when it is this group who invest in the stock market and who most likely benefited from the 6.4% GDP growth rate.

it makes you wonder what is it that has caused the rich to abandon aquino and give the president dramatic drops in satisfaction.  if the rich are not benefiting  from the GDP growth rate, who is? if it is not economic reasons that  is disappointing them, what is it about aquino and his job performance then?

aquino during the election campaign has kept harping on how well he listens to the people. in fact he even carried that election campaign positioning through his administration via the no wang-wang policy and the often quoted “kayo ang boss ko”  spin.  now is the time to actually do what he says he is good at – it is time for him to listen and listen hard to the people and find out why the rich from NCR and urban areas have abandoned aquino and has given him the worst net satisfaction rating of his administration.

~~ carlo p arvisu ~~
mindscape landmark 

2M/year added to philippine population, will reach 100M by 2014 – can the country afford it?

January 5, 2011 7 comments

with a growth rate of 2.04%, the country adds 2M to the population every year. ithe population is expected to reach 96M this year and at the current rate, it will reach 100M as soon as 2014.

100M in the philippines is very hard to imagine but it will happen sooner than what we want it to be.

source: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=644561&publicationSubCategoryId=63

by rank, the philippines has the 12th largest population in the world. bur the story should not end there. size of population per se is not a bad thing. we need to look at other things to see whether the size makes sense or not.

for sure, population growth rate matters.  growth rates show the number of people we add to the population given a specific cycle. it makes sense to conclude that from a population growth standpoint, the slower, the better. after all, we live in a finite world and that includes the philippines. the country has very defined boundaries, it is a finite space. we just can’t pile each person on top of the other when horizontal space runs out.

we should look at other things – one is nominal GDP.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

This article includes a list of countries of the world sorted by their gross domestic product (GDP), the market value of all final goods and services from a nation in a given year. The GDP dollar estimates presented here are calculated at market or government official exchange rates.

Several economies which are not considered to be countries (world, the EU, Eurozone, and somedependent territories) are included in the list because they appear in the sources. These economies are not ranked in the charts here, but are listed.

The first list includes 2010 data1 for members of the International Monetary Fund.

The second list shows the World Bank‘s 2009 estimates, and the third list includes mostly 2009 estimates from the CIA World Factbook.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

a country is like a family – a family has a size, a specific number of people and it also has income. the family uses this income to support the family’s needs like food to feed it’s members, clothing,  medicine, rent, education, transportation and leisure plus other needs of the household.

the more income you have with the same family members the better. when the number of people in the family increase, then the amount of income needs to increase as well for the family to be able to maintain the same lifestyle and needs. that can be difficult for many families as it is not easy to increase income – one cannot  easily get a promotion or other members of the family take on new jobs or source of income.

“living  within your means” comes to mind as the smart thing to do.

family income is GDP to a country and population of a country is to family size to families. both have expenses.

common sense tells you and it is the smart thing, that since the philippines has the 12th largest population in the world, the country needs to have GDP or income that ranks also 12th in the world. the 12th most populous should have the 12th largest GDP in the world.

that is not the case.  here is the top 20 GDP ranking in the world.

source:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

okay, the philippines is not among the top 20 in the world in GDP, so maybe it is slighly lower, say to 40.  it is not ideal but at least it is close.

well, not true. the philippines GDP size is not even among the top 40.

the fact is in terms of GDP, the philippines ranks among the top 50 in the world, 47th largest to be specific.

the country has the 12th largest population in the world and yet it only has the 47th largest GDP in the world.

your conclusions and thoughts?

philippine GDP growth 1Qtr 2010 but poverty rate remain high

May 28, 2010 Leave a comment

this is good news – the philippine economy growing with its GDP improving by 7.3% during the current year’s first quarter versus a 0.5% growth same period year ago. it is good news at face value but looking into what happened in the first quarter, it’s an expected growth since this is an election year. first quarter growth was most likely driven by election spending which naturally were expected to peak during that period with the election held in the 2nd quarter.

this phenomenon is a regular occurrence during election time in the country. a similar impressive GDP growth, the highest in the country’s history,  was recorded in 2007 during the election period as well, that time the election for senators.

there are two more sobering points to consider – one is that the country’s GDP growth in most instances pale in comparison to the GDP growth of other countries in Asia.  looking at those numbers, one might say the country’s eco performance may not be that impressive after all.

During the first quarter,

  • Singapore’s economy grew 15.5 percent;
  • Thailand, 12 percent;
  • Malaysia, 10.1 percent;
  • Vietnam, 5.8 percent;
  • Taiwan, 13.3 percent;
  • China, 11.9 percent;
  • Hong Kong, 8.2 percent; and,
  • South Korea, 7.8 percent.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100528-272446/RP-economy-grows-73

the key question that needs to be asked all the time when looking at impressive GDP growth is the question of sustainability.  country economic data like most other financial numbers go through cycles of peaks and valleys. peaks that are sustainable, that can be achieved over a long period of time is what we want. since this latest eco growth is mostly election spending driven, that means it is not sustainable. the next election is scheduled years from now, not on a quarterly basis.

at around the same the GDP data was released, the government released a different data that we think the government, this time the incoming aquino administration, need  to watch more closely.

this data says the country’s poverty level has remained the same.

GDP growth is a good thing, but what the country needs a lot more of is that the poverty rate of the country to go down. a growing GDP rate and stagnant or increasing poverty rate means the rich is getting richer while the poor remain poor or are getting poorer.

a very large portion of the philippine population is poor where the DE socio-eco class accounts for  at least 83% of the population. reducing poverty in the country will mean affecting a much larger chunk of the population in a very positive way.

the stage is set for the aquino administration.

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