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Roxas catapults to #2, beats Binay, all behind Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”

September 21, 2015 Leave a comment

latest SWS presidentiables poll for the 2016 election has put a dazzling surprise – Mar Roxas an erstwhile low 3rd in the previous survey has jumped to 2nd place and in the process pushing down Jejomar Binay to 3rd.

not only the improvement in ranking was the big surprise, the numbers are amazing, from the previous poll putting roxas at 21%, roxas catapulted to 39%, a giant leap of +18%.

binay who used to be 2nd now sits at 35%, almost the same as the previous poll at 34%. the 1% point difference is not statistically significant.

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.49.21 PM

source : http://www.sws.org.ph

however, roxas’ lead over binay, +4% points is statistically significant from binay with the +/- 3% points margin of error.

what happened? what caused the phenomenal increase in rating and standing of mar roxas?

we think what drove the impressive increase is the endorsement of president aquino of roxas’ candidacy to the presidency. the SWS survey was conducted  september 2 to 5 wScreen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.57.31 PMhich was very close to the announcement of Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas that happened on july 31, 2015 at club filipino. it was a big event as it got full media coverage and was in the news that evening and succeeding days. it has been highly speculated that aquino will endorse roxas, the actual announcement was highly anticipated by everyone.

aquino is the country’s most popular president. no other president was able to gain the kind of very high ratings that aquino has gotten. this high level began at the start of his presidency and was continued on through the years. even aquino’s low ratings were much higher than arroyo’s ratings which almost always stayed on the negative. arroyo is one of the country’s most unpopular president while aquino is the country’s most popular president.

the incumbent president’s endorsement seem to have a lot of power, negative or positive,  in philippine politics.

president arroyo endorsed gibo teodoro but since arroyo was one of the country’s most unpopular president, that endorsement became a kiss of death for teodoro.

cory aquino’s endorsement of fidel ramos we think was one of the reasons ramos got elected. cory was and is one of the country’s most popular and beloved presidents. today, cory is considered a hero by many.

aside from aquino’s endorsement, we think the other driver for roxas’ surge in the polls is “daang matuwid”. daang matuwid was the campaign platform of noynoy aquino when he ran for the presidency, one that he won on a landslide. aside from the 2010 campaign, this was also used by aquino as central and often the headline of aquino’s governance.

right after the endorsement of aquino, roxas immediately proclaimed that he will continue “daang matuwid” and in fact Roxas ran TV ads on “daang matuwid” one day after he was endorsed by aquino.  in speeches aquino identified roxas as the person who he thinks will continue and has the competence to continue “daang matuwid”.

corruption in government which daang matuwid is going against appear to continue to be a top issue among voters. it also helps one of the key aspirants for the presidency is being alleged as a serial and multiple corrupt government official, vp jejomar binay. binay to this day has not answered or made  an effort to dispel the alleged charges of corruption.

this is turn is perhaps the reason why binay has been sliding in the polls. binay’s drop to third is the second for binay. he used to be at the top of the polls before the alleged corruption charges were revealed at the senate,

we had underestimated the power of president aquino as endorser and the idea of “daang matuwid”. we expected improvements but we dd not see it happening in this grand scale.

the momentum is with roxas. poe’s momentum has been stopped and binay may have stabilized. a continuing surge by roxas and a decline in base support for poe and binay can win him the presidency.

 

 

 

president aquino’s drop in ratings – malacanang itself is to blame

April 4, 2011 1 comment

a lot of press in the last few days on the performance satisfaction rating survey conducted by SWS (read here : http://wp.me/pnw03-1qs). the press is mostly on malacanang thinking about the ratings drop and what it means.

on one side, it’s refreshing to see that the occupants of malacanang are sensitive to the survey results. it means they are sensitive to the sentiments of the people. and that can only be good as a sensitive malacanang to the sentiments of the people can mean better action at truly serving the people’s needs.  even a marketing or political newbie will tell you that the way to improve the ratings is to serve the people better.

we did not see this kind of reaction from the previous administration of gloria macapagal arroyo. arroyo’s malacanang would have ignored the survey results or attack the results and question the results. arroyo’s administration have always thought everyone else is wrong while they are the only ones right.

the other side of the reaction of the current malacanang occupants is this never ending search for who is to blame for the drop in the ratings. the spokesperson has said previously, media was to blame as it tended to publicize only what is wrong and the bad news while ignoring what is good and the good news.

recent pronouncements puts the  blame on “shyness” of malacanang in publicizing its good deeds. with this thinking, malacanang has resolved to be “more aggressive” in putting in the good news out to the press. that means they will need to learn to be more “kapal moks” , if we are to use their thinking on them being too “shy” to publicize their good deeds.

Valte said the Palace communicators would “maximize the use of all our resources, not only government television and radio … We will be maximizing all resources available to us.”

She disagreed with suggestions that the Palace communication group was to blame for the low ratings, but she said the communicators were taking the survey “as a sign to be really more aggressive in promoting the President” and his programs.

She said this was not for the President’s spokespersons alone to do and that Cabinetsecretaries and their public information offices could also lend a hand.

“It cannot be just a job of three but everybody has to pitch in to make sure the good news [reaches] the people,” she said.

The other day, Valte also said on state radio: “We have a very Filipino trait of being too shy to boast.”

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20110404-329229/Aquino-revs-up-media-machine

who is to blame for the drop in satisfaction ratings on the president’s performance? let us get a run down.

is media to blame?  all communication practitioners should know this – media will put what they think will attract their audience, those that their audience will find interesting or those that they think their audience want.  the news being “good news” or “bad news” practically has nothing to do with it. you can have bad news but if it is not something the audience want, it will not get any exposure. same thing with good news. good news does not guarantee and audience, it can on the other hand pull in boredom. the only barometer media uses in deciding what is printed out there is its saleability or interest value to its audience.

it is this nature of media that makes it necessary for public and private figures and groups to engage communication practitioners to deal with media. their job is to make something interesting enough for media to see it’s value and put it out for the people to read and see.

we have been involved in the past with projects where the topic was seen as boring by media practitioners and the public when we started. after some careful planning and strategizing, we set out to make the topic “sexy” for media to publish and the public to take interest in. to make the topic “sexy” was the exact word used to describe what  we intended to do with the topic. after a few months,  the topic thyat was previously boring and usually out of media became a hot topic of discourse and  attention both by media and the public.

malacanang does not have 1 but 3 groups under its employ to make the topic of “president aquino’s achievement”  to be  seen as “sexy” enough to pay attention to.  that says they have no excuse  for not being able to put across the messagtes in behalf of the aquino administration.

if they blame the poor and weak message release to the public as the reason for the significant drop in aquino’s performance rating, then it is the fault of these three communication gr0ups.  in simple terms, these 3 communication groups have failed in doing  their jobs.

The EO effectively reorganizes the Office of the Press Secretary and is aimed at modernizing the Palace’s communications strategy to better deliver President Aquino’s message to the people.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/08/09/10/aquino-forms-media-communications-group

the primary task of the 3 communications group is to “better deliver president aquino’s message to the people” – the ratings drop due to shyness in delivering aquino’s message to the people means they have failed in their mandate.

aquino’s mandate reorganizing the office of the press secretary does not include “shyness” as an acceptable reason to fail in their mandate.

there is a dedicated press corp that covers malacanang.  media covers the president’s activity 24/7.  many of these media people, specially the major media outlets assign permanent reporters to the malacanang beat at all times and are exclusive to the office of the president.  these reporters are ever present in malacanang. all that malacanang needs to do is hand over to them a press release or call a press conference and the news is out.

of course that does not guarantee publication. the job of the 3 communications group is to make the news interesting enough for media to publish them. if the topic is boring and the write-up is boring, it will not be published. you can have a boring topic but if the write up is interesting, it can get published.

since malacanang seem to be blaming aquino’s drop in rating on the lack or weak message delivery, we wonder if the re-organization that they did, dividing it into 3 parts is the one that is causing the problem. is it possible that when they divided the function into 3 distinct functions, some fell through the cracks.

SWS poll (march 2011) – aquino satisfaction rating suffers a significant drop, the good news and the bad news

April 2, 2011 Leave a comment

a 13 point drop in the satisfaction rating of  president aquino is statistically significant. on it’s value it can be a cause of concern for aquino.  malacanang or aquino’s handlers are saying it is a concern.  as a knee jerk reaction to the 13 point drop, feeling concerned is understandable but they need to look at the number within the framework of other factors and data that is available to them.

first of all, a drop in satisfaction ratings is expected. no president, even aquino can sustain a high rating through the lofe of the presidency.  aquino started at a net satisfaction of  +60, then moved up to +64. because it moved up to +64, the most recent +51 took a much larger drop of -13 points. if this was pegged at +60, the +51 would have been just a -9 pts drop only.

previous presidents’ satisfaction ratings also showed drops at different periods of their presidency. that just goes to show it is expected that it is impossible to expect that people will perpetually be happy with the president. the beginning of the term of the president always starts on a high note. the people just elected the president, there will be a halo effect on the satisfaction rating of  any president during months after the election.  it is called the honeymoon period. after the honeymoon, people see the real president with the halo effect from the recently concluded election campaign.

looking at the satisfaction ratings of past presidents,  aquino’s most recent rating of +51 and his highest of +64 may be the lowest compared to the highest ratings of past presidents aquino (+69), ramos (+69) and estrada (+67), these ratings are much higher than the highest rating than what arroyo ever got (+30).  in fact arroyo’s satisfaction rating record is the worst among all the presidents with arroyo getting minus satisfaction ratings for 25 out of 43 ratings. arroyo’s best rating is at +30 . aquino’s latest rating of +51 is a much more impressive than arroyo’s best.

what that means is that aquino’s presidency so far is serving the people much better than his predecessor, arroyo.

Ratings drop for Aquino

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s performance has fallen and controversies such as his purchase of a luxury car apparently have not helped, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.

Most Filipinos still approve of Mr. Aquino but his latest net satisfaction rating is down 13 points to +51 (69% satisfied minus the 18% dissatisfied) from November’s +64 (74% satisfied, 10% dissatisfied), results of a March 4-7 poll made exclusive toBusinessWorld showed.

Interviewed on the issue of the president’s purchase of a Porsche late last year, nearly half or 48% said it was not a good example for the chief executive of a country like the Philippines, notwithstanding details such as the car was not brand new and that Mr. Aquino had used his own money.

A political analyst warned that results pointed to “uneasiness,” while Malacañang said a dip in Mr. Aquino’s numbers had been expected following his overwhelming election win last year.

Scores in all areas but one, socioeconomic classes and gender were down from November last year. In Luzon, urban areas, among the ABC class and among males, Mr. Aquino particularly saw his net ratings dip into “good” territory from “very good.”

read more here: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?title=Ratings%20drop%20for%20Aquino&id=28754

the 2010 philippine election exit poll – gilbert teodoro dominates

May 10, 2010 204 comments

this survey is now open. please let us know who you voted in this election.

also vote in the exit poll for vice-president here –> Now open – The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Exit Poll For Vice-President (who did you for vice president?)

vote here: your sentiments and reactions on the 2010 election experience, voice them out here

the miracle that teodoro’s campaign wants us to believe will happen

March 31, 2010 Leave a comment

we are reacting to these statements made by the teodoro campaign officials about the chances that that teodoro can still win this election.

source: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100331-261738/Dont-count-Teodoro-out-yet-says-Palace


Don’t count Teodoro out yet, says Palace
By TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 07:03:00 03/31/2010

MANILA, Philippines—Though he remains a poor fourth in the surveys, administration standard-bearer Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro should not be counted out of the presidential race, Malacañang said Tuesday.

“There’s no reason for anyone to throw in the towel,” Gary Olivar, deputy presidential spokesperson, told reporters. “People, when they start campaigning, they should be serious about it.”

it is the late stages of the campaign and for teodoro to continue to get only single digits ratings in the poll does say it is time to throw in the towel.

changes in voter attitudes do not happen fast – it takes time for the messages to reach the voters and it takes time for the voters to act on them.

even on that one, there is no assurance that the voters will react  favourably to your message. the other candidates are doing their own efforts which probably already has reached the intended voters.

for those in the laggards group like teodoro, the task is not just to get his message to reach voters, but more than that, it is to convert them to his side.

conversion is one of the most difficult tasks in marketing. conversion is much harder than persuasion.

Olivar advised the public to wait for the results of the next survey, which he said would cover the March 26 kick-off of the local campaign and factor in the political machinery of the administration coalition.

“We have the word of administration party spokespersons and leaders that we will start to see the effects of their grassroots strength after the local campaign started on March 26,” he said.

this is a very tall promise.

the only way teodoro will turn the tide in his favor is he has done something massive, something different and something really smart in the last few weeks since that last poll was taken. we did not see teodoro doing anything earth shaking during the time.

the local “political machinery” is a myth the ruling party keeps saying whenever they are losing in the polls. to them it is really no more than a made up silver bullet.

political machinery did not deliver and in fact was non-existent in the last senatorial election where almost all the opposition candidates won seats and almost all the admin candidates lost.

the reason for the loss? gloria macapagal arroyo. and that reason continue to be present now and in particular with teodoro who has been given the kiss of death.

Party secretary general Francis Manglapus said the surveys would not reflect the true sentiments of voters until 10 days before the end of the campaign period, when the electorate had made a firm choice.

“This thing is far from over,” he said by phone.

Manglapus, who said he doubted the “science” behind surveys, agreed that the surveys had failed to take into account such factors as “command vote” and “regional strength.”

surveys capture voter sentiments at the moment of the survey. have several survey points and you can connect them to form a trend. the trend for teodoro is not a good thing.

“command vote” and “regional strenght” are cute new words to say “political machinery” which as we have said previously is a myth.

it is strange that the impact of political machinery is being portrayed here like a switch or a faucet where it’s effects are felt only when it is switched on.

these local officials who are supposed to form the political machinery has always been in their locality from the very beginning. why has their impact not been picked up by the polls? it appears they have not been doing anything and will only start on the official start of the local campaign.

if the impact of the local machinery is not being felt now, it will not be felt 2 months from now during the election.

“We just started to send out our message last Friday,” he said, referring to the start of the local campaign. “We’re just starting to crank the machinery.”

if this is true, then this party is in trouble for it’s mismanagement and poor strategizing in this election. they knew from the very beginning that teodoro was an underdog in this election. knowing that, the smart manager should have started this much earlier.

Manglapus, however, conceded that the delayed move to air advertisements on television and radio contributed to Teodoro’s poor ratings. He disclosed that the party would step up the airing of these ads and the road shows.

the problem with teodoro’s adveritsing is not just being late in airing them. first of all, we disagree – they were not late at all. they were aired at  about the same time as the other front runner aquino.

the problem with teodoro’s ads is that they were bad commercials and that they do not have enough money to air them. ad people will tell you, however, that even if teodoro had the same amount of money villar ad, it will not help at all since the ads are weak.

“The election is 40 days away, and the local campaign has just started. Now the real movement and growth of our campaign by leaps and bounds will be seen,” he said.

this is fine IF teodoro do not have competition. teodoro’s campaign is not in a vaccum. he competes with other presidentiables. so it will not happen.

the teodoro campaign needs a large dose of reality.

march 2010 SWS poll results – a big red flag is up for manny villar

March 30, 2010 8 comments

with just a few weeks left in this campaign, manny villar’s rating in the most recent SWS poll should be taken as a huge ref flag being raised on the villar bid for the presidency. this is the first time that we are seeing villar’s rating take a dip. it has been consistently going up over the months.

coming at this late stage is particularly worrying as it leaves very little time for the campaign to first find out what is causing it and equally important to do something about it.

villar has tied aquino as front runner only after many months of campaign activities and millions of advertising peso way ahead of the official start of the election campaign. this front runner status did not come easy for villar. now having such a short time to recover is cause for worry.

we think it is the C-5 controversy that is causing this weakness in villar’s poll rating. it is finally catching up on him. it does not help that aquino, his co-leader started airing tv ads that were single minded on corruption.  those ads of aquino created a very clear contrast between the two campaigns.

the road to recovery for villar lie exclusively on this – finding out what is causing the deterioration in the poll ratings. not getting that right will make his efforts worthless. they need to do something very different in the next few weeks left in this campaign. doing more of the same will not help villar, it will even be counter productive.

is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino campaign?

March 16, 2010 20 comments

this is the kris aquino in tears video at The Buzz which happened over the weekend. it can break your heart or make you laugh. you can believe it or not.

the question is this – is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino election campaign?

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog.

vote in the poll:

SWS Presidentiable Poll february 2010 shows clear danger of aquino loss in election

March 12, 2010 1 comment

political polls are always tricky. the nature of political polls is one where change can occur often and rapidly. that comes from the design itself – political polls measures the attitude of the respondents, in this case voters at a given point in time.  current events and the latest developments in the country, in the political arena and most specially among the presidentiables themselves influence the attitude of voters. in other words anything and many things can influence the mind of the voter.

that is when you look at one specific poll result. it becomes a slightly different story when you have several of these poll results, the same question being asked across several points in time. from there you can see a trend.

looking at the SWS presidentiable polls across several polls conducted since early december 2009, it clearly shows the steady decline of the poll ratings of noynoy aquino.

while the decline in the first three polls are negligible being within the margin of error or just about there, the last one in end february is a clear red flag as that is statistically a significant drop from the previous.

while that to some degree may not be as worrisome as he continues to enjoy front runner status, the alarm bells come off when we look at the ratings of the other presidentiables, specifically manny villar. there is a clear upward trend on the ratings of  villar to the point that villar has statistically tied aquino as front runner.

the other thing to consider is erap estrada. we were expecting estrada’s ratings will eventually drop as the campaign period went on but his actual ratings on a trend is the opposite. it has not gone down but it has basically remained at the same level and the recent data shows a slight increase (though not statistically significant).

within the context of a contest to which this presidential race is, at the minimum it shows a picture of aquino losing ground while his opponents are gaining ground.

this seems to indicate that aquino’s supporters are vulnerable to poaching by the other presidentiables. that generally indicates aquino is not doing enough to protect his franchise.

his main opponents on the other hand, villar and estrada have been doing many more things than they used to before the campaign period. most notably villar has had dramatic changes in his ad campaign with a slew of new executions and changes in strategy, including huge and aggressive public meetings.

even estrada has changed his tv ads. from the nostalgic ads he had before, he is now into more specific messages and positioning plus aggressive public meetings.

we also think aquino will lose this election by default – he has not done enough and he did not do anything at the time he was supposed to. we wonder if it is over confidence. we think it is really more of a strategic blunder.

can aquino recover and change the outcome to a win in this election? yes he can. but he needs  to do a lot more than what he has been doing and he needs to get his campaign strategies right.  the first one is easy but we think the second one is not. specially for the aquino campaign. we think poor and weak strategic thinking is the aquino campaign’s greatest weakness. unfortunately, we do not think they know that.

~~  a mindscape landmark – carlo arvisu ~~

polls & surveys on presidentiable preference : losing out on the formula to win (part 1)

March 10, 2010 Leave a comment

we are publishing here an email we received from a reader, carlo arvisu who is a marketing and advertising practitioner.

——-

election polls is the rage these days – it is the stuff of newspaper headlines and tv newscasts. presidentiables are asked about them and predictably those in the lead are thankful for the results while those at the bottom or not improving are all against it casting doubt on the results by attacking the research agency, those who commissioned the poll and the methodology.

the irony of it all is that most of the major candidates and even the laggards actually subscribe to the election polls we read in the papers. the election polls conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia are syndicated polls. they run this on their own but they make available to the candidates its results on a subscription basis. not only can candidates subscribe to it, anyone else who has the money can subscribe to them.

the rate of subscription vary on the kind of service a presidentiable wants. the rates differ on how  the presidentiables want the results presented to them or what results they want to have.

the biggest clients of research agencies are mass consumer marketing companies like uni-lever, jollibee and procter & gamble, although they use other research agencies like TNS and AC Nielsen. SWS and Pulse Asia do these types of research but very seldom, their specialization is polls on political and national issues.

the problem with surveys and research both for mass consumer marketing companies  and presidential campaigns is how to answer  two  questi0ns, the last one being   –  what do we do, what steps do we take as a reaction to the research results.

research and polls give a snapshot or a profile of the consumer mind and voters mind at a certain point in time. the consumer and voter mind is a living thing, it is dynamic and can change in whatever direction in no time depending on the stimulus or what the voter or consumer experience.

change in the consumer mind may not happen often and not as quickly but change in the voter mind can happen very often and very quickly.  current events is the stimulus for this change and current can mean something yesterday, today or in a few hours time.

with readily available , evolving news reported and brought to the consciousness of voters, change in the voter mind can occur in a beat. we not only have tv, radio and print now,  there is the internet, the social websites, blogs and even cellphone text.  all of the above can influence the voter mind in an instant. 

we saw the power of instant communication  during EDSA DOS where  hundreds of thousands of people exchanged cell phone text  to express their disgust on the developments regarding the unopened brown envelope during estrada’s hearings at congress. from disgust, the text content turned into people asking others to converge at EDSA and that led to the eventual ouster of estrada.

having the data gives the political campaign a picture of the current state of mind of the voter. with a picture in front of you, you can now plot your actions to change that picture. 

the problem is very few know how to do it properly. that problem is not limited to political campaigns but it is also true to mass consumer marketing companies.

knowing what to do or not knowing what to do is actually the second of two questions. the first question is this – what is the meaning of the poll results? and the twin question which is more important – what are the insights that we can draw from these results?

research and poll agencies will give the subscriber results, basically statements or answers to the questions asked of the respondents with corresponding numbers or ratings.  these are in essence the statistically analyzed raw data. the poll and research agency will not give them the meanings and more importantly the insights from the data.

the data will need interpretation and that is supposed to be done by the client. and there lie the other problem.  even mass consumer marketing companies are not very good at this, in fact many of these companies do not even have competencies to do this. we do not think political campaigns have these as well.

insights is a very elusive thing for many. in fact the marketing and advertising managers we have encountered do not really know what insights are. many of them think research data and results are already insights. when they are really just raw data that they will need to draw insights from.

the political campaign now has the data from the polls, what will they do with it now? this is next in part 2.

~~  a mindscape landmark ~~
 carlo arvisu

Pulse Asia February 2010 Presidentiables Poll : villar rating drops on corruption issue

March 8, 2010 4 comments

it is interesting how the national surveys seem to be releasing consistent findings. this latest pulse asia poll result conducted late february is consistent with the findings of the TNS survey result, another national poll. (read here: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5)

this pulse asia  poll shows aquino still the front runner with no statistical change from previous poll with a of 36%. the poll has a margin error of +/12% at the 95% confidence level. 

villar was unable to continue to push up his rating and in fact suffered a loss of -6% points to now 29%. villar was on a continuous growing trend in previous polls.

we think villar’s loss was due to the C-5 controversy that he found himself at the start of the year that peaked with the speech he delivered at the senate denying there was any wrong doing, something that occurred during the fieldwork of this poll.

we wrote previously on this issue when TNS released it’s poll results.

 it looks like C-5 will hound the candidacy of villar. also makes us think that should he win the presidency, just like arroyo, villar will have a corruption issue hanging on his head throughout his presidency. it was the ”hello garci” case for arroyo, it might be C-5 for villar.  as in the “hello garci” case, the C-5 issue will not go away for villar. we think it is best that villar mop out a plan to get this issue to be resolved after the election, especially if he wins the election. he should do this for the sake of his presidency and the country.   the country needs closure on this issue.

click: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5

it was also at around that time when noynoy aquino changed his advertising campaign from the badly strategized rap tv ad targeting young voters to the more hard hitting and focused “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ads.

by a happy coincidence (or planned conspiracy by the noynoy camp), corruption was directly brought up by aquino as an election issue and his message while the the C-5 corruption controversy was heating up in the senate. the C-5 issues has been there for months but disappeared from the radar only to reappear interestingly during the heating up of the presidential campaign.

corruption we think  probably belongs to the top 3 issues voters have in this coming election. we also think it is one of the reasons why aquino continues to float as top contender in this election as it is one of the enduring brand images of aquino. aquino as seen by the people as clean and incorruptible given the legacy he and his family holds in the minds of voters. 

on the other hand, corruption is the enduring legacy of president arroyo . though unconfirmed, it is a sticking point on arroyo with many corruption scandals unresolved. people are tired of both arroyo and corruption.

aquino having his parents as heroes of  the country, ninoy and cory enjoys an image of  it is one thing that noynoy will not do.

it was great timing that  aquino’s ads spoke of no corruption for him  and corruption was the issue being hurled on villar. 

in today’s PDI headline story, it said it was the Villarroyo charge that pulled villar’s ratings. we disagree. the charge that villar is arroyo’s secret presidentiable did not really get a lot of media play compared to the C-5 and corruption messages of aquino. 

Villarroyo was mentioned by mar roxas at the tail end of the C-5 controversy and got some press play but it was really not explained or given enough meat for the people to understand and remember it.  the C-5 controversy on the other hand got long and in-depth media coverage by the press and extended for a few weeks.

it appears the voters understood what the C-5 is really about at its core. they were able to see that this goes beyond senators having a lover’s quarrel or a man of power exerting undue influence but as a form of corruption.

in simplistic terms, the voters had this in their minds – aquino who is clean versus villar who is tainted. for a moment there villar got defined as corrupt and aquino re-confirmed as not corrupt.

the aquino and villar campaigns should look at this poll results very closely and understand how it got there and what are the implications. they should do more in-depth study and analysis and conduct further research. we think doing this and extracting the appropriate insights  has a very strong possibility that it will give them the winning formula for this election.

(view rap ad here: noynoy aquino’s new tv ad – pinoy noynoy rap,
read here : noynoy aquino’s “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ad – the power of credibility in a powerful tv ad)

 

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the:

  • (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar;
  • Read more…

analysis: presidentiables for the rich, presidentiables for the poor and presidentiables for all

February 18, 2010 Leave a comment

there is an emerging trend at looking closer at the most recent Pulse Asia presidentiables survey results more closely(end january 2010).

there are basically three groupings of presidentiables.

  • presidentiables who enjoy support across the board from all socio-eco classes
  • presidentiables whose socio-eco classes support are skewed towards a specific socio-eco class

the first group are the presidentiables who are the front runners, villar and aquino who gained high numbers across the board. the second group have scores that tend to have very high on a specific socio-eco group and belong to the laggards group, teodoro and gordon.

this tells us its important for presidentiables to appeal to all socio-eco classes. appealing only to one segment ends up with a total low score.

we have written about the profile differences of villar, aquino and estrada based on this chart previously (read here:    analysis – villar and aquino are opposites, villar and estrada are the same : pulse asia presidentiables poll january 2010).

teodoro and gordon has similar profiles – they both appeal to the rich, ABC socio-eco classes. to turn that around will mean more advertising that appeal to them and most probably more provincial tours for public meetings. of the two, advertising will work faster and work best.

for villar to win this election, he needs to pull in voters from the ABC and D. a key concern for villar is the ABC socio-eco class since his ratiungs are significantly lower than that of of aquino. for aquino to win this election, he needs to pull in voters from the E socio-eco class. aquino’s weakness among the E is surprising since we thought cory’s pull among the voters runs across all socio-eco classes.

villanueva is interesting as his is a similar profile to those of villar and aquino – across the board. the issue with villanueva is that his ratings are low also across the board. that means villanueva need advertising and more efforts to reach more of these voters.

the 2010 Philippine Presidential Election – an election for aquino to lose, an election for villar to win

January 11, 2010 5 comments

the latest poll was conducted end december and that puts voter sentiments on the

noynoy aquino

presidentiables just a short 5 months away. soon, we will be seeing the hardening of voter sentiments on presidentiable preferences.

we think by may 2010, it will be down to an election for aquino to lose and for villar to win.

barring any major collapse or miraculous events, this will be an election between two presidentiables – manny villar and noynoy aquino.

to change the trend means any one of the two leading contenders making a monumental blunder on something or a personal scandal. for the others to bolt into contention, they will need an event of miraculous proportion.

we actually had 2 events during this election time – the ondoy/pepeng floods and the maguindanao massacre. these events have been life changing for many of the voters and defining moments for the presidentiables, but we did not see anyone of them taking advantage of the two events and bolting out of  the pack.

gilbert teodoro, the admin candidate had the best chance among all of them to make the most of these twin 2009  events but he had performed at minimum without consequence or at worst badly.

among all the presidentiables he was poised to bolt himself to stardom but he did not take it and was unable to make anything of it. his ratings show it where he continue to be of no consequence in this election.

we expect the polls to put aquino and villar in a much tighter range as we get closer to the election. however, as things are now, we see this election as either a landslide win by aquino or a squeaker win, a very close one by villar.

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