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Roxas catapults to #2, beats Binay, all behind Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”

September 21, 2015 Leave a comment

latest SWS presidentiables poll for the 2016 election has put a dazzling surprise – Mar Roxas an erstwhile low 3rd in the previous survey has jumped to 2nd place and in the process pushing down Jejomar Binay to 3rd.

not only the improvement in ranking was the big surprise, the numbers are amazing, from the previous poll putting roxas at 21%, roxas catapulted to 39%, a giant leap of +18%.

binay who used to be 2nd now sits at 35%, almost the same as the previous poll at 34%. the 1% point difference is not statistically significant.

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.49.21 PM

source : http://www.sws.org.ph

however, roxas’ lead over binay, +4% points is statistically significant from binay with the +/- 3% points margin of error.

what happened? what caused the phenomenal increase in rating and standing of mar roxas?

we think what drove the impressive increase is the endorsement of president aquino of roxas’ candidacy to the presidency. the SWS survey was conducted  september 2 to 5 wScreen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.57.31 PMhich was very close to the announcement of Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas that happened on july 31, 2015 at club filipino. it was a big event as it got full media coverage and was in the news that evening and succeeding days. it has been highly speculated that aquino will endorse roxas, the actual announcement was highly anticipated by everyone.

aquino is the country’s most popular president. no other president was able to gain the kind of very high ratings that aquino has gotten. this high level began at the start of his presidency and was continued on through the years. even aquino’s low ratings were much higher than arroyo’s ratings which almost always stayed on the negative. arroyo is one of the country’s most unpopular president while aquino is the country’s most popular president.

the incumbent president’s endorsement seem to have a lot of power, negative or positive,  in philippine politics.

president arroyo endorsed gibo teodoro but since arroyo was one of the country’s most unpopular president, that endorsement became a kiss of death for teodoro.

cory aquino’s endorsement of fidel ramos we think was one of the reasons ramos got elected. cory was and is one of the country’s most popular and beloved presidents. today, cory is considered a hero by many.

aside from aquino’s endorsement, we think the other driver for roxas’ surge in the polls is “daang matuwid”. daang matuwid was the campaign platform of noynoy aquino when he ran for the presidency, one that he won on a landslide. aside from the 2010 campaign, this was also used by aquino as central and often the headline of aquino’s governance.

right after the endorsement of aquino, roxas immediately proclaimed that he will continue “daang matuwid” and in fact Roxas ran TV ads on “daang matuwid” one day after he was endorsed by aquino.  in speeches aquino identified roxas as the person who he thinks will continue and has the competence to continue “daang matuwid”.

corruption in government which daang matuwid is going against appear to continue to be a top issue among voters. it also helps one of the key aspirants for the presidency is being alleged as a serial and multiple corrupt government official, vp jejomar binay. binay to this day has not answered or made  an effort to dispel the alleged charges of corruption.

this is turn is perhaps the reason why binay has been sliding in the polls. binay’s drop to third is the second for binay. he used to be at the top of the polls before the alleged corruption charges were revealed at the senate,

we had underestimated the power of president aquino as endorser and the idea of “daang matuwid”. we expected improvements but we dd not see it happening in this grand scale.

the momentum is with roxas. poe’s momentum has been stopped and binay may have stabilized. a continuing surge by roxas and a decline in base support for poe and binay can win him the presidency.

 

 

 

president aquino’s drop in ratings – malacanang itself is to blame

April 4, 2011 1 comment

a lot of press in the last few days on the performance satisfaction rating survey conducted by SWS (read here : http://wp.me/pnw03-1qs). the press is mostly on malacanang thinking about the ratings drop and what it means.

on one side, it’s refreshing to see that the occupants of malacanang are sensitive to the survey results. it means they are sensitive to the sentiments of the people. and that can only be good as a sensitive malacanang to the sentiments of the people can mean better action at truly serving the people’s needs.  even a marketing or political newbie will tell you that the way to improve the ratings is to serve the people better.

we did not see this kind of reaction from the previous administration of gloria macapagal arroyo. arroyo’s malacanang would have ignored the survey results or attack the results and question the results. arroyo’s administration have always thought everyone else is wrong while they are the only ones right.

the other side of the reaction of the current malacanang occupants is this never ending search for who is to blame for the drop in the ratings. the spokesperson has said previously, media was to blame as it tended to publicize only what is wrong and the bad news while ignoring what is good and the good news.

recent pronouncements puts the  blame on “shyness” of malacanang in publicizing its good deeds. with this thinking, malacanang has resolved to be “more aggressive” in putting in the good news out to the press. that means they will need to learn to be more “kapal moks” , if we are to use their thinking on them being too “shy” to publicize their good deeds.

Valte said the Palace communicators would “maximize the use of all our resources, not only government television and radio … We will be maximizing all resources available to us.”

She disagreed with suggestions that the Palace communication group was to blame for the low ratings, but she said the communicators were taking the survey “as a sign to be really more aggressive in promoting the President” and his programs.

She said this was not for the President’s spokespersons alone to do and that Cabinetsecretaries and their public information offices could also lend a hand.

“It cannot be just a job of three but everybody has to pitch in to make sure the good news [reaches] the people,” she said.

The other day, Valte also said on state radio: “We have a very Filipino trait of being too shy to boast.”

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20110404-329229/Aquino-revs-up-media-machine

who is to blame for the drop in satisfaction ratings on the president’s performance? let us get a run down.

is media to blame?  all communication practitioners should know this – media will put what they think will attract their audience, those that their audience will find interesting or those that they think their audience want.  the news being “good news” or “bad news” practically has nothing to do with it. you can have bad news but if it is not something the audience want, it will not get any exposure. same thing with good news. good news does not guarantee and audience, it can on the other hand pull in boredom. the only barometer media uses in deciding what is printed out there is its saleability or interest value to its audience.

it is this nature of media that makes it necessary for public and private figures and groups to engage communication practitioners to deal with media. their job is to make something interesting enough for media to see it’s value and put it out for the people to read and see.

we have been involved in the past with projects where the topic was seen as boring by media practitioners and the public when we started. after some careful planning and strategizing, we set out to make the topic “sexy” for media to publish and the public to take interest in. to make the topic “sexy” was the exact word used to describe what  we intended to do with the topic. after a few months,  the topic thyat was previously boring and usually out of media became a hot topic of discourse and  attention both by media and the public.

malacanang does not have 1 but 3 groups under its employ to make the topic of “president aquino’s achievement”  to be  seen as “sexy” enough to pay attention to.  that says they have no excuse  for not being able to put across the messagtes in behalf of the aquino administration.

if they blame the poor and weak message release to the public as the reason for the significant drop in aquino’s performance rating, then it is the fault of these three communication gr0ups.  in simple terms, these 3 communication groups have failed in doing  their jobs.

The EO effectively reorganizes the Office of the Press Secretary and is aimed at modernizing the Palace’s communications strategy to better deliver President Aquino’s message to the people.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/08/09/10/aquino-forms-media-communications-group

the primary task of the 3 communications group is to “better deliver president aquino’s message to the people” – the ratings drop due to shyness in delivering aquino’s message to the people means they have failed in their mandate.

aquino’s mandate reorganizing the office of the press secretary does not include “shyness” as an acceptable reason to fail in their mandate.

there is a dedicated press corp that covers malacanang.  media covers the president’s activity 24/7.  many of these media people, specially the major media outlets assign permanent reporters to the malacanang beat at all times and are exclusive to the office of the president.  these reporters are ever present in malacanang. all that malacanang needs to do is hand over to them a press release or call a press conference and the news is out.

of course that does not guarantee publication. the job of the 3 communications group is to make the news interesting enough for media to publish them. if the topic is boring and the write-up is boring, it will not be published. you can have a boring topic but if the write up is interesting, it can get published.

since malacanang seem to be blaming aquino’s drop in rating on the lack or weak message delivery, we wonder if the re-organization that they did, dividing it into 3 parts is the one that is causing the problem. is it possible that when they divided the function into 3 distinct functions, some fell through the cracks.

SWS poll (march 2011) – aquino satisfaction rating suffers a significant drop, the good news and the bad news

April 2, 2011 Leave a comment

a 13 point drop in the satisfaction rating of  president aquino is statistically significant. on it’s value it can be a cause of concern for aquino.  malacanang or aquino’s handlers are saying it is a concern.  as a knee jerk reaction to the 13 point drop, feeling concerned is understandable but they need to look at the number within the framework of other factors and data that is available to them.

first of all, a drop in satisfaction ratings is expected. no president, even aquino can sustain a high rating through the lofe of the presidency.  aquino started at a net satisfaction of  +60, then moved up to +64. because it moved up to +64, the most recent +51 took a much larger drop of -13 points. if this was pegged at +60, the +51 would have been just a -9 pts drop only.

previous presidents’ satisfaction ratings also showed drops at different periods of their presidency. that just goes to show it is expected that it is impossible to expect that people will perpetually be happy with the president. the beginning of the term of the president always starts on a high note. the people just elected the president, there will be a halo effect on the satisfaction rating of  any president during months after the election.  it is called the honeymoon period. after the honeymoon, people see the real president with the halo effect from the recently concluded election campaign.

looking at the satisfaction ratings of past presidents,  aquino’s most recent rating of +51 and his highest of +64 may be the lowest compared to the highest ratings of past presidents aquino (+69), ramos (+69) and estrada (+67), these ratings are much higher than the highest rating than what arroyo ever got (+30).  in fact arroyo’s satisfaction rating record is the worst among all the presidents with arroyo getting minus satisfaction ratings for 25 out of 43 ratings. arroyo’s best rating is at +30 . aquino’s latest rating of +51 is a much more impressive than arroyo’s best.

what that means is that aquino’s presidency so far is serving the people much better than his predecessor, arroyo.

Ratings drop for Aquino

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s performance has fallen and controversies such as his purchase of a luxury car apparently have not helped, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.

Most Filipinos still approve of Mr. Aquino but his latest net satisfaction rating is down 13 points to +51 (69% satisfied minus the 18% dissatisfied) from November’s +64 (74% satisfied, 10% dissatisfied), results of a March 4-7 poll made exclusive toBusinessWorld showed.

Interviewed on the issue of the president’s purchase of a Porsche late last year, nearly half or 48% said it was not a good example for the chief executive of a country like the Philippines, notwithstanding details such as the car was not brand new and that Mr. Aquino had used his own money.

A political analyst warned that results pointed to “uneasiness,” while Malacañang said a dip in Mr. Aquino’s numbers had been expected following his overwhelming election win last year.

Scores in all areas but one, socioeconomic classes and gender were down from November last year. In Luzon, urban areas, among the ABC class and among males, Mr. Aquino particularly saw his net ratings dip into “good” territory from “very good.”

read more here: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?title=Ratings%20drop%20for%20Aquino&id=28754

the 2010 philippine election exit poll – gilbert teodoro dominates

May 10, 2010 204 comments

this survey is now open. please let us know who you voted in this election.

also vote in the exit poll for vice-president here –> Now open – The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Exit Poll For Vice-President (who did you for vice president?)

vote here: your sentiments and reactions on the 2010 election experience, voice them out here

the miracle that teodoro’s campaign wants us to believe will happen

March 31, 2010 Leave a comment

we are reacting to these statements made by the teodoro campaign officials about the chances that that teodoro can still win this election.

source: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100331-261738/Dont-count-Teodoro-out-yet-says-Palace


Don’t count Teodoro out yet, says Palace
By TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 07:03:00 03/31/2010

MANILA, Philippines—Though he remains a poor fourth in the surveys, administration standard-bearer Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro should not be counted out of the presidential race, Malacañang said Tuesday.

“There’s no reason for anyone to throw in the towel,” Gary Olivar, deputy presidential spokesperson, told reporters. “People, when they start campaigning, they should be serious about it.”

it is the late stages of the campaign and for teodoro to continue to get only single digits ratings in the poll does say it is time to throw in the towel.

changes in voter attitudes do not happen fast – it takes time for the messages to reach the voters and it takes time for the voters to act on them.

even on that one, there is no assurance that the voters will react  favourably to your message. the other candidates are doing their own efforts which probably already has reached the intended voters.

for those in the laggards group like teodoro, the task is not just to get his message to reach voters, but more than that, it is to convert them to his side.

conversion is one of the most difficult tasks in marketing. conversion is much harder than persuasion.

Olivar advised the public to wait for the results of the next survey, which he said would cover the March 26 kick-off of the local campaign and factor in the political machinery of the administration coalition.

“We have the word of administration party spokespersons and leaders that we will start to see the effects of their grassroots strength after the local campaign started on March 26,” he said.

this is a very tall promise.

the only way teodoro will turn the tide in his favor is he has done something massive, something different and something really smart in the last few weeks since that last poll was taken. we did not see teodoro doing anything earth shaking during the time.

the local “political machinery” is a myth the ruling party keeps saying whenever they are losing in the polls. to them it is really no more than a made up silver bullet.

political machinery did not deliver and in fact was non-existent in the last senatorial election where almost all the opposition candidates won seats and almost all the admin candidates lost.

the reason for the loss? gloria macapagal arroyo. and that reason continue to be present now and in particular with teodoro who has been given the kiss of death.

Party secretary general Francis Manglapus said the surveys would not reflect the true sentiments of voters until 10 days before the end of the campaign period, when the electorate had made a firm choice.

“This thing is far from over,” he said by phone.

Manglapus, who said he doubted the “science” behind surveys, agreed that the surveys had failed to take into account such factors as “command vote” and “regional strength.”

surveys capture voter sentiments at the moment of the survey. have several survey points and you can connect them to form a trend. the trend for teodoro is not a good thing.

“command vote” and “regional strenght” are cute new words to say “political machinery” which as we have said previously is a myth.

it is strange that the impact of political machinery is being portrayed here like a switch or a faucet where it’s effects are felt only when it is switched on.

these local officials who are supposed to form the political machinery has always been in their locality from the very beginning. why has their impact not been picked up by the polls? it appears they have not been doing anything and will only start on the official start of the local campaign.

if the impact of the local machinery is not being felt now, it will not be felt 2 months from now during the election.

“We just started to send out our message last Friday,” he said, referring to the start of the local campaign. “We’re just starting to crank the machinery.”

if this is true, then this party is in trouble for it’s mismanagement and poor strategizing in this election. they knew from the very beginning that teodoro was an underdog in this election. knowing that, the smart manager should have started this much earlier.

Manglapus, however, conceded that the delayed move to air advertisements on television and radio contributed to Teodoro’s poor ratings. He disclosed that the party would step up the airing of these ads and the road shows.

the problem with teodoro’s adveritsing is not just being late in airing them. first of all, we disagree – they were not late at all. they were aired at  about the same time as the other front runner aquino.

the problem with teodoro’s ads is that they were bad commercials and that they do not have enough money to air them. ad people will tell you, however, that even if teodoro had the same amount of money villar ad, it will not help at all since the ads are weak.

“The election is 40 days away, and the local campaign has just started. Now the real movement and growth of our campaign by leaps and bounds will be seen,” he said.

this is fine IF teodoro do not have competition. teodoro’s campaign is not in a vaccum. he competes with other presidentiables. so it will not happen.

the teodoro campaign needs a large dose of reality.

march 2010 SWS poll results – a big red flag is up for manny villar

March 30, 2010 8 comments

with just a few weeks left in this campaign, manny villar’s rating in the most recent SWS poll should be taken as a huge ref flag being raised on the villar bid for the presidency. this is the first time that we are seeing villar’s rating take a dip. it has been consistently going up over the months.

coming at this late stage is particularly worrying as it leaves very little time for the campaign to first find out what is causing it and equally important to do something about it.

villar has tied aquino as front runner only after many months of campaign activities and millions of advertising peso way ahead of the official start of the election campaign. this front runner status did not come easy for villar. now having such a short time to recover is cause for worry.

we think it is the C-5 controversy that is causing this weakness in villar’s poll rating. it is finally catching up on him. it does not help that aquino, his co-leader started airing tv ads that were single minded on corruption.  those ads of aquino created a very clear contrast between the two campaigns.

the road to recovery for villar lie exclusively on this – finding out what is causing the deterioration in the poll ratings. not getting that right will make his efforts worthless. they need to do something very different in the next few weeks left in this campaign. doing more of the same will not help villar, it will even be counter productive.

is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino campaign?

March 16, 2010 20 comments

this is the kris aquino in tears video at The Buzz which happened over the weekend. it can break your heart or make you laugh. you can believe it or not.

the question is this – is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino election campaign?

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog.

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