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Posts Tagged ‘poverty in the philippines’

Pulse Asia survey – the poor feel the economy is worse now than last year

August 1, 2013 Leave a comment

the total country numbers are not very different in the june 2013 survey versus the previous survey, done in march 2013.  but the specifics of the numbers tell a different story in this latest Pulse Asia survey on how filipinos feel about the economy compared to last year.

just like previous survey held in march 2013, most of the respondents surveyed felt the economy is the same this year versus last year – 43% in june 2013 versus 42% in march 2013. there is a slight decrease in respondents, by -5% points who think the economy is better this year than previous year to 28% from 33%. consequently, a slight increase showed in respondents saying the economy is worse this year from previous – to 29% from 25%.

but the national picture is just half the story. going down to the details by area and socio-eco class is where the real story is.

in these numbers, the poor are saying the economy this year is worst than last year.

20130801-091945.jpg

source : https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b9qPFV1cRDUWlxQUxRN2E1Yzg/edit?pli=1

there is a drop in numbers for those who feel the economy is better than last year across all socio-eco classes – 37% to 30% for ABC; 35% to 30% for D and 28% to 20%.

that is consistent with an increase in numbers who feel the economy is worse than previous year  specifically among the poor – to 37% from 32% among the E and to 28% from 22% among the D. no change among the ABC at 22%.

looking at the areas, there is a very dramatic increase in the balance Luzon or provincial Luzon areas where it deteriorated to 24% from the previous 14%. areas outside metro manila or the NCR is where most of the poor reside.

there is not much to look at among those who think the economy has remained the same as the numbers are about the same in the latest survey versus the previous except for NCR where a huge jump occurred to 50% from 39%.

there were also dramatic drops in those who think the economy is better than previous year in NCR to 25% from 40%.

from a total country perspective, the number of those who think the economy is the same versus last year did not change but the number of those who think the economy is better dropped to 28% from 33% and consequently those who thought the economy is worse increased to 29% from 24%.

based on the numbers this more pessimistic view of the economy, those thinking it became worse that last year are coming from the poor, those who belong to the DE socio-eco classes who come from the provincial areas outside of NCR.

the rich and poor divide has always been the key issue in the philippines. these just underscores the fact that the country needs to do even much more to alleviate poverty with a specific target of getting the improving and impressive  GDP growth numbers benefiting much more the poor than the rich.

ADB : Poverty In the Philippines – causes, constraints & opportunities

October 25, 2011 Leave a comment

click to read pdf file  —>  Poverty-Philippines-Causes-Constraints-Opportunities

source : ADB website : http://bit.ly/ulR9RP

president noynoy aquino wrong on flaws of SWS (march 2011) hunger survey results

April 8, 2011 1 comment

the latest (march 2011) hunger and poverty survey of SWS got a reaction from president n0ynoy aquino –  he said the SWS  was unable to properly capture the efforts they did in visayas and mindanao where he said many of the government poverty alleviation programs were implemented.  from the point of view of statistics, he means the respondent sampling done by SWS was incorrect.

Aquino finds flaw in hunger survey

“I myself can’t reconcile that sometimes,” Mr. Aquino said, referring to the contrasting survey findings and the claimed achievements of the government’s programs to generate employment and reduce poverty.

President Aquino said the bulk of the data in the SWS survey came from Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.

He said that 400,000 new beneficiaries of the government’s conditional cash transfer program, or CCT, were from the Visayas and Mindanao but this was not reflected in the survey.

“It so happened that the statistical sample used didn’t capture the ones helped by the CCT. If it was reversed, the result would have been skewed to show that more people experienced their hunger being alleviated,” Mr. Aquino said.

The President said the CCT was first rolled out in the Visayas and Mindanao because the poverty incidence was more serious in those areas compared with Metro Manila and Luzon.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20110408-330059/Aquino-finds-flaw-in-hunger-survey

aquino is wrong in what he said.

it is not true that the survey failed to capture the government’s poverty alleviation efforts in visayas and mindanao where the government did bulk of their efforts. the hunger ratings in fact in visayas and mindanao went down from previous with 14.7% in march in visayas from previous 18.2% and to 16.7% in mindanao from 21.1% of previous period.

self-claimed “mahirap” or poverty ratings however climbed up in visayas and mindanao. visayas went up to 61% from 53% and mindanao to 49% from 44%.

aquino’s complaint about the sampling skew towards NCR and Luzon is also baseless. bulk of the respondents come from NCR and Luzon for the simple reason that most of the population of the philippines come form these same two areas.  that is how sampling design is supposed to be done – you get more respondents from the areas where most of the population are for the sample size to be truly representative of the country. the sample size is supposed to mirror where the people are in the country.

in other words, there is nothing wrong with the sampling design of the SWS survey as aquino is saying.  there is only something wrong  with aquino’s understanding of what is a good sampling design.

also,  one can expect a difference in results between the SWS survey and aquino’s efforts at poverty alleviation for the simple reason that SWS used random sampling while  the aquino government’s efforts were not random but purposive and specific. given that, it is possible results will be different.

for the aquino government to find out how effective their efforts are , the aquino government should do a purposive sampling of the actual people they helped and see if their economic lives have changed. in simple terms they should do a before and after study on the specific people they reached.

these are the rest of results:

source: http://www.sws.org.ph/

aquino admin – hunger on the rise again

January 11, 2011 2 comments

poverty is an endemic problem in the country and one that many previous administrations tried to fix but failed. that apparently includes the current aquino administration.

the aquino admin likes to say they are pro-poor and are dead serious in alleviating poverty. this survey results tell us the aquino admin better get their programs in place and running and hopefully effective.

but that will be asking too much. unfortunately the next quarterly survey of SWS on hunger will probably be even worst than this for the following reasons:

  • toll fees are on the rise
  • public transport fares (bus, jeepney, train, taxi) on the rise
  • NFA rice has been increased
  • bread prices on the rise
  • gas prices are rising (always)
  • power costs increasing
  • jobs still hard to find
  • US$ depreciating – remittances will get hit

the above will surely boost inflation and with not enough new jobs around, incomes will continue to be scarce and hunger will rise even more.

 

 

Hunger again rising

Yearend SWS survey estimates 3.4M families affected

HUNGER HAS GONE UP among Filipino families after declining for most of last year even as the number of households that consider themselves mahirap or poor basically stayed the same, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.

A Nov. 27-30 SWS poll, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, had 18.1% of the respondents — or an estimated 3.4 million families — claiming to have gone hungry in the last three months because they lacked anything to eat.

This was up from the 2010 low of 15.9% (3.0 million families) recorded last September and — given the 21.2% in March and 21.1% in June — was slightly below the 19.1% average for the year.

It was also four points over the 12-year average of 13.7%, the SWS noted, but still far from the record high of 24% hit in December 2009. The record low is 7.4%, hit in March 2004.

Some 9.2 million families or 49% of the respondents, meanwhile, considered themselves poor, barely changed from September’s 48%. Over a third — 36% or an estimated 6.7 million households — considered themselves food-poor, down from 38% previously.

Government officials blamed higher food prices in the last quarter of 2010 and noted the need to deliver on promises to reduce poverty.

The rise in overall hunger, the SWS said, was due to a two-point increase in moderate hunger — experiencing it “only once” or “a few times” in the last three months — to 15% or an estimated 2.8 million families. Those not stating their frequency of hunger are included in this category.

Severe hunger — experiencing it “often” or “always” — remained at 3.1% or 588,000 families.

Overall hunger rose in all areas except in the Visayas where it stayed at 15.3%. It increased by nearly four points in the Balance of Luzon to 18.3%, almost two points in Mindanao to 18% and a point in Metro Manila to 21.7%.

Moderate hunger was up in all geographical areas: to 16% from 13.3% in Mindanao, 14.7% from 12.3% in the Balance of Luzon, to 17.7% from 15.7% in Metro Manila and to 12.7% from 11.7% in the Visayas.

Severe hunger rose by over a point to 3.7% in the rest of Luzon but fell by an identical amount in Mindanao (2.0%) and the Visayas (2.7%). It fell by nearly a point in Metro Manila to 4.0%.

read in full here: http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=24243

adding 2 more years to basic education will further widen the rich & poor divide

August 14, 2010 41 comments

the DepEd seems all set to add two more years to the country’s 10 year basic education curriculum.  this is a very tough issue to crack. we think it is a clash between reality and the ideal. a question unanswered – is this for the common good?

the truth is there are already many problems at  the current 10-year curriculum and it has nothing to do with number of years. to enumerate a few – there are not enough qualified teachers to teach all the students; that is made worst with just too many students; there are not enough classrooms and schools to comfortably fit all the students (not to mention not enough bathrooms and water supply); there are not enough books; add the problem of poor quality books, on top of that there are not enough facilities and finally very high drop out rates.

the latter, high drop out rates is being caused by something out of the education system but affects a large part of the population – poverty.  there are just so many poor families and they are so poor that many of them cannot afford to pay for the already meager amount needed for the education of their children. grade school and high school are free in public schools with parents needing to just spend on uniforms, fare and some expenses. the tuition which normally accounts for a very large share of the total expenses are free and yet most poor families can still not afford of what is left for them to spend. it is not that the expenses are high, it’s just their income is very, very low.

it is this inability to afford the other expenses that has caused a very high drop out rate among students.

this plan of the DepEd to add two more years will of course not solve any of the above problems. in fact,  it will only extend all those problems  by two more years.  a longer basic education will also mean even higher drop out rates.

then there is the problem of  additional expenses for the government.  as of now, with the 10 year curriculum, there is already desperate lack of classrooms and schools.  the public schools cannot turn the students away when they show up to enroll. to cope many public schools have crammed as many students as they can inside the classroom with classrooms crammed with chairs from wall to wall. not enough, the schools conduct classes in at least shifts, in some instances  classes held very early in the morning till late in the evening.

with two additional years, the schools will definitely need to construct new buildings and classrooms or God forbid conduct classes 24/7.

the above is the reality part. below is the ideal part.

on the other hand, the DepEd could be right – the country’s 10 year basic education curriculum might be inadequate given today’s demands and may put the country’s students at a disadvantage versus our asian neighbors who already employ 12 years of basic education.

here is looking for the greater good – for sure, very few of the poor will benefit from the expected benefits of a 12 year curriculum.  an even larger number of the poor will drop out of school. they cannot afford to pay for a 10 year curriculum now, the more they cannot afford a 12 year curriculum.

the rich on the other hand will benefit from it. they can afford to spend for the additional two  years and if the DepEd is correct, we will have a much better educated and skilled middle to upper class.

will the country be better off as a whole with a large part of the population who are the poor less educated and a better educated upper class which account for a very small portion of the population.

education to the filipino family is all about opportunities for the students and the family and with this plan the opportunities it seems will be disproportionately distributed even more inequitably in favor of the rich.the rich and poor divide will widen even further.

where is for the greater good here?

philippine GDP growth 1Qtr 2010 but poverty rate remain high

May 28, 2010 Leave a comment

this is good news – the philippine economy growing with its GDP improving by 7.3% during the current year’s first quarter versus a 0.5% growth same period year ago. it is good news at face value but looking into what happened in the first quarter, it’s an expected growth since this is an election year. first quarter growth was most likely driven by election spending which naturally were expected to peak during that period with the election held in the 2nd quarter.

this phenomenon is a regular occurrence during election time in the country. a similar impressive GDP growth, the highest in the country’s history,  was recorded in 2007 during the election period as well, that time the election for senators.

there are two more sobering points to consider – one is that the country’s GDP growth in most instances pale in comparison to the GDP growth of other countries in Asia.  looking at those numbers, one might say the country’s eco performance may not be that impressive after all.

During the first quarter,

  • Singapore’s economy grew 15.5 percent;
  • Thailand, 12 percent;
  • Malaysia, 10.1 percent;
  • Vietnam, 5.8 percent;
  • Taiwan, 13.3 percent;
  • China, 11.9 percent;
  • Hong Kong, 8.2 percent; and,
  • South Korea, 7.8 percent.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100528-272446/RP-economy-grows-73

the key question that needs to be asked all the time when looking at impressive GDP growth is the question of sustainability.  country economic data like most other financial numbers go through cycles of peaks and valleys. peaks that are sustainable, that can be achieved over a long period of time is what we want. since this latest eco growth is mostly election spending driven, that means it is not sustainable. the next election is scheduled years from now, not on a quarterly basis.

at around the same the GDP data was released, the government released a different data that we think the government, this time the incoming aquino administration, need  to watch more closely.

this data says the country’s poverty level has remained the same.

GDP growth is a good thing, but what the country needs a lot more of is that the poverty rate of the country to go down. a growing GDP rate and stagnant or increasing poverty rate means the rich is getting richer while the poor remain poor or are getting poorer.

a very large portion of the philippine population is poor where the DE socio-eco class accounts for  at least 83% of the population. reducing poverty in the country will mean affecting a much larger chunk of the population in a very positive way.

the stage is set for the aquino administration.

arroyo admin – the rich got richer, the poor poorer, number increased

March 8, 2010 Leave a comment
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