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Roxas catapults to #2, beats Binay, all behind Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”

September 21, 2015 Leave a comment

latest SWS presidentiables poll for the 2016 election has put a dazzling surprise – Mar Roxas an erstwhile low 3rd in the previous survey has jumped to 2nd place and in the process pushing down Jejomar Binay to 3rd.

not only the improvement in ranking was the big surprise, the numbers are amazing, from the previous poll putting roxas at 21%, roxas catapulted to 39%, a giant leap of +18%.

binay who used to be 2nd now sits at 35%, almost the same as the previous poll at 34%. the 1% point difference is not statistically significant.

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.49.21 PM

source : http://www.sws.org.ph

however, roxas’ lead over binay, +4% points is statistically significant from binay with the +/- 3% points margin of error.

what happened? what caused the phenomenal increase in rating and standing of mar roxas?

we think what drove the impressive increase is the endorsement of president aquino of roxas’ candidacy to the presidency. the SWS survey was conducted  september 2 to 5 wScreen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.57.31 PMhich was very close to the announcement of Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas that happened on july 31, 2015 at club filipino. it was a big event as it got full media coverage and was in the news that evening and succeeding days. it has been highly speculated that aquino will endorse roxas, the actual announcement was highly anticipated by everyone.

aquino is the country’s most popular president. no other president was able to gain the kind of very high ratings that aquino has gotten. this high level began at the start of his presidency and was continued on through the years. even aquino’s low ratings were much higher than arroyo’s ratings which almost always stayed on the negative. arroyo is one of the country’s most unpopular president while aquino is the country’s most popular president.

the incumbent president’s endorsement seem to have a lot of power, negative or positive,  in philippine politics.

president arroyo endorsed gibo teodoro but since arroyo was one of the country’s most unpopular president, that endorsement became a kiss of death for teodoro.

cory aquino’s endorsement of fidel ramos we think was one of the reasons ramos got elected. cory was and is one of the country’s most popular and beloved presidents. today, cory is considered a hero by many.

aside from aquino’s endorsement, we think the other driver for roxas’ surge in the polls is “daang matuwid”. daang matuwid was the campaign platform of noynoy aquino when he ran for the presidency, one that he won on a landslide. aside from the 2010 campaign, this was also used by aquino as central and often the headline of aquino’s governance.

right after the endorsement of aquino, roxas immediately proclaimed that he will continue “daang matuwid” and in fact Roxas ran TV ads on “daang matuwid” one day after he was endorsed by aquino.  in speeches aquino identified roxas as the person who he thinks will continue and has the competence to continue “daang matuwid”.

corruption in government which daang matuwid is going against appear to continue to be a top issue among voters. it also helps one of the key aspirants for the presidency is being alleged as a serial and multiple corrupt government official, vp jejomar binay. binay to this day has not answered or made  an effort to dispel the alleged charges of corruption.

this is turn is perhaps the reason why binay has been sliding in the polls. binay’s drop to third is the second for binay. he used to be at the top of the polls before the alleged corruption charges were revealed at the senate,

we had underestimated the power of president aquino as endorser and the idea of “daang matuwid”. we expected improvements but we dd not see it happening in this grand scale.

the momentum is with roxas. poe’s momentum has been stopped and binay may have stabilized. a continuing surge by roxas and a decline in base support for poe and binay can win him the presidency.

 

 

 

march 2010 SWS presidentiables poll – erap magic works, villar magic fails, aquino magic stays

March 29, 2010 6 comments

this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.

aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but  he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.

villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past.  villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air.  villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.

estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.

the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.

presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline.  doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return  for them.

Aquino opens up lead versus Villar

LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.

Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.

Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.

Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.

Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.

There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).

source: http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=8479

fresh start for 2010 Presidentiables Poll – december 1, 2009

November 24, 2009 2 comments

we like to announce that starting first week of december, 2009, we will close the the existing 2010 presidentiables poll in this blog and will start a new one in its place.

we will know by december 1 all the official candidates for the 2010 presidential election and would like to capture readers sentiments on the official list of candidates. doing a new poll will also allow others who have voted here before to vote again. at present the program only allows 1 vote per user. that means if you voted before and the presidentiable you voted withdrew, you can’t vote again.

we like to thank everyone for participating in our poll. it is i think one of the more successful polls in the internet on philippine presidentiables with many thousands of readers casting their vote. we hope they will come bacl  here and vote again in the new poll in december.

 

october 2009 SWS and Pulse Asia presidentiables poll is a most crucial one so far

October 3, 2009 2 comments

read latest SWS Presidentiable poll post here, click  :  september 2009 SWS presidentiable poll :noynoy aquino’s spectacular rise to front runner is magical

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sws and pulse asia must be ready to go on fieldwork for their last quarter 2009 presidentiables poll survey. they will probably do the fieldwork end of next week or the week after. they have to wait for things to settle down first on the ondoy storm. people are too preoccupied and very much distracted by ondoy that i doubt they will get any meaningful results for the survey.

it is a most crucial presidentiables poll in the 2010 presidential election.

  • very major developments have occured among the presidentiables – mar roxas withdrew, noynoy aquino announced he is a presidentiable and gilbert teodoro was declared ruling/admin party standard bearer. ed panlilio and jejomar binay withdrew while bayani fernando was dumped by his party.
  • we can expect major changes in ratings if not rankings.
  • there will be a lot to interpret with the upcoming results just on those developments.
  • the addition of ondoy will also add significantly to it. we can expect that the people’s ondoy experience or what others have witnessed happening to others will affect preferences.
  • this quarter’s poll results will be particularly important to aquino, teodoro and villar.
  • aquino based on the luzon sws poll jumped to close to the heavens with a 50% rating. the 4qtr poll will need to confirm his strong standing. he does not need to top the polls but doing a double digit rating even on the low double digit will be excellent news for aquino.
  • teodoro is at the bottom of the heap of poll garbage. he has a measly 0.2%. he needs to show he can be a factor in the election with at least a high single digit rating. just hitting a low single digit will confirm what most everybody seem to say about him – he is a non-factor in the next election.
  • what can be going for teodoro is that because of ondoy and being the chair of the NDCC, he has been getting a significant amount of press. is that good or bad? will that help his rating and ranking in the next poll?
  • this will be important for villar as this will show a true test of villar’s leadership in the polls. he is the front runner and we will know if he still deserves that title given the above developments.
  • the poll will also be crucial to the laggards. the poll results will tell them if they need to re-assess their candidacy. the time to drop out of the race is in december at the latest.

polls are the words of the people. to some the words may be harsh but to a few they will be kind. it is crunch time for all the presidentiables.

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