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2M/year added to philippine population, will reach 100M by 2014 – can the country afford it?

January 5, 2011 7 comments

with a growth rate of 2.04%, the country adds 2M to the population every year. ithe population is expected to reach 96M this year and at the current rate, it will reach 100M as soon as 2014.

100M in the philippines is very hard to imagine but it will happen sooner than what we want it to be.

source: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=644561&publicationSubCategoryId=63

by rank, the philippines has the 12th largest population in the world. bur the story should not end there. size of population per se is not a bad thing. we need to look at other things to see whether the size makes sense or not.

for sure, population growth rate matters.  growth rates show the number of people we add to the population given a specific cycle. it makes sense to conclude that from a population growth standpoint, the slower, the better. after all, we live in a finite world and that includes the philippines. the country has very defined boundaries, it is a finite space. we just can’t pile each person on top of the other when horizontal space runs out.

we should look at other things – one is nominal GDP.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

This article includes a list of countries of the world sorted by their gross domestic product (GDP), the market value of all final goods and services from a nation in a given year. The GDP dollar estimates presented here are calculated at market or government official exchange rates.

Several economies which are not considered to be countries (world, the EU, Eurozone, and somedependent territories) are included in the list because they appear in the sources. These economies are not ranked in the charts here, but are listed.

The first list includes 2010 data1 for members of the International Monetary Fund.

The second list shows the World Bank‘s 2009 estimates, and the third list includes mostly 2009 estimates from the CIA World Factbook.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

a country is like a family – a family has a size, a specific number of people and it also has income. the family uses this income to support the family’s needs like food to feed it’s members, clothing,  medicine, rent, education, transportation and leisure plus other needs of the household.

the more income you have with the same family members the better. when the number of people in the family increase, then the amount of income needs to increase as well for the family to be able to maintain the same lifestyle and needs. that can be difficult for many families as it is not easy to increase income – one cannot  easily get a promotion or other members of the family take on new jobs or source of income.

“living  within your means” comes to mind as the smart thing to do.

family income is GDP to a country and population of a country is to family size to families. both have expenses.

common sense tells you and it is the smart thing, that since the philippines has the 12th largest population in the world, the country needs to have GDP or income that ranks also 12th in the world. the 12th most populous should have the 12th largest GDP in the world.

that is not the case.  here is the top 20 GDP ranking in the world.

source:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

okay, the philippines is not among the top 20 in the world in GDP, so maybe it is slighly lower, say to 40.  it is not ideal but at least it is close.

well, not true. the philippines GDP size is not even among the top 40.

the fact is in terms of GDP, the philippines ranks among the top 50 in the world, 47th largest to be specific.

the country has the 12th largest population in the world and yet it only has the 47th largest GDP in the world.

your conclusions and thoughts?

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