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Posts Tagged ‘surveys and polls’

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll For Senatoriables closed – miriam defensor santiago is #1

May 8, 2010 25 comments

january 2, 2010; 11am
results of poll as of this time and date – all are known personalities or ex-senators.

  1. miriam defensor santiago – 8%
  2. pia cayetano – 7%
  3. kata inocencio – 6%
  4. franklin drilon – 6%
  5. bongbong marcos – 6%
  6. juan ponce enrile – 6%
  7. sergio osmenia III – 5%
  8. ralph recto – 5%
  9.  sonia roco – 4%
  10.   bong revilla – 4%
  11.   gilbert remulla – 4%
  12.   satur ocampo – 3%
  13.   vic sotto – 3%
  14.   jinggoy estrada – 3#

 

december 19, 2009; 11am  

 we are now opening a new poll for the senatoriables. we have cut into a short list of senatoriables who we think have at least name recall.

official list of senatorial candidates, below. click to view:

Read more…

manny villar jumps to 2nd as the presidentiable who must not win the election poll

April 2, 2010 3 comments

this is a poll where respondents are asked to nominate the presidentiables who they think must NOT win the 2010 election.

latest results puts estrada on top, followed by villar then aquino, the top 3 presidentiables in the SWS and Pulse Asia polls. it is interesting that villar in recent weeks got a surge of votes in this poll.

vote and the poll and read the results here–> manny villar jumps to 2nd in presidentiables poll who must not win in the 2010 presidential election

is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino campaign?

March 16, 2010 20 comments

this is the kris aquino in tears video at The Buzz which happened over the weekend. it can break your heart or make you laugh. you can believe it or not.

the question is this – is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino election campaign?

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog.

vote in the poll:

polls & surveys on presidentiable preference : losing out on the formula to win (part 1)

March 10, 2010 Leave a comment

we are publishing here an email we received from a reader, carlo arvisu who is a marketing and advertising practitioner.

——-

election polls is the rage these days – it is the stuff of newspaper headlines and tv newscasts. presidentiables are asked about them and predictably those in the lead are thankful for the results while those at the bottom or not improving are all against it casting doubt on the results by attacking the research agency, those who commissioned the poll and the methodology.

the irony of it all is that most of the major candidates and even the laggards actually subscribe to the election polls we read in the papers. the election polls conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia are syndicated polls. they run this on their own but they make available to the candidates its results on a subscription basis. not only can candidates subscribe to it, anyone else who has the money can subscribe to them.

the rate of subscription vary on the kind of service a presidentiable wants. the rates differ on how  the presidentiables want the results presented to them or what results they want to have.

the biggest clients of research agencies are mass consumer marketing companies like uni-lever, jollibee and procter & gamble, although they use other research agencies like TNS and AC Nielsen. SWS and Pulse Asia do these types of research but very seldom, their specialization is polls on political and national issues.

the problem with surveys and research both for mass consumer marketing companies  and presidential campaigns is how to answer  two  questi0ns, the last one being   –  what do we do, what steps do we take as a reaction to the research results.

research and polls give a snapshot or a profile of the consumer mind and voters mind at a certain point in time. the consumer and voter mind is a living thing, it is dynamic and can change in whatever direction in no time depending on the stimulus or what the voter or consumer experience.

change in the consumer mind may not happen often and not as quickly but change in the voter mind can happen very often and very quickly.  current events is the stimulus for this change and current can mean something yesterday, today or in a few hours time.

with readily available , evolving news reported and brought to the consciousness of voters, change in the voter mind can occur in a beat. we not only have tv, radio and print now,  there is the internet, the social websites, blogs and even cellphone text.  all of the above can influence the voter mind in an instant. 

we saw the power of instant communication  during EDSA DOS where  hundreds of thousands of people exchanged cell phone text  to express their disgust on the developments regarding the unopened brown envelope during estrada’s hearings at congress. from disgust, the text content turned into people asking others to converge at EDSA and that led to the eventual ouster of estrada.

having the data gives the political campaign a picture of the current state of mind of the voter. with a picture in front of you, you can now plot your actions to change that picture. 

the problem is very few know how to do it properly. that problem is not limited to political campaigns but it is also true to mass consumer marketing companies.

knowing what to do or not knowing what to do is actually the second of two questions. the first question is this – what is the meaning of the poll results? and the twin question which is more important – what are the insights that we can draw from these results?

research and poll agencies will give the subscriber results, basically statements or answers to the questions asked of the respondents with corresponding numbers or ratings.  these are in essence the statistically analyzed raw data. the poll and research agency will not give them the meanings and more importantly the insights from the data.

the data will need interpretation and that is supposed to be done by the client. and there lie the other problem.  even mass consumer marketing companies are not very good at this, in fact many of these companies do not even have competencies to do this. we do not think political campaigns have these as well.

insights is a very elusive thing for many. in fact the marketing and advertising managers we have encountered do not really know what insights are. many of them think research data and results are already insights. when they are really just raw data that they will need to draw insights from.

the political campaign now has the data from the polls, what will they do with it now? this is next in part 2.

~~  a mindscape landmark ~~
 carlo arvisu

Pulse Asia February 2010 Presidentiables Poll : villar rating drops on corruption issue

March 8, 2010 4 comments

it is interesting how the national surveys seem to be releasing consistent findings. this latest pulse asia poll result conducted late february is consistent with the findings of the TNS survey result, another national poll. (read here: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5)

this pulse asia  poll shows aquino still the front runner with no statistical change from previous poll with a of 36%. the poll has a margin error of +/12% at the 95% confidence level. 

villar was unable to continue to push up his rating and in fact suffered a loss of -6% points to now 29%. villar was on a continuous growing trend in previous polls.

we think villar’s loss was due to the C-5 controversy that he found himself at the start of the year that peaked with the speech he delivered at the senate denying there was any wrong doing, something that occurred during the fieldwork of this poll.

we wrote previously on this issue when TNS released it’s poll results.

 it looks like C-5 will hound the candidacy of villar. also makes us think that should he win the presidency, just like arroyo, villar will have a corruption issue hanging on his head throughout his presidency. it was the ”hello garci” case for arroyo, it might be C-5 for villar.  as in the “hello garci” case, the C-5 issue will not go away for villar. we think it is best that villar mop out a plan to get this issue to be resolved after the election, especially if he wins the election. he should do this for the sake of his presidency and the country.   the country needs closure on this issue.

click: new presidentiables survey jan-feb TNS: aquino at 42%, villar at 31%. villar should resolve C-5

it was also at around that time when noynoy aquino changed his advertising campaign from the badly strategized rap tv ad targeting young voters to the more hard hitting and focused “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ads.

by a happy coincidence (or planned conspiracy by the noynoy camp), corruption was directly brought up by aquino as an election issue and his message while the the C-5 corruption controversy was heating up in the senate. the C-5 issues has been there for months but disappeared from the radar only to reappear interestingly during the heating up of the presidential campaign.

corruption we think  probably belongs to the top 3 issues voters have in this coming election. we also think it is one of the reasons why aquino continues to float as top contender in this election as it is one of the enduring brand images of aquino. aquino as seen by the people as clean and incorruptible given the legacy he and his family holds in the minds of voters. 

on the other hand, corruption is the enduring legacy of president arroyo . though unconfirmed, it is a sticking point on arroyo with many corruption scandals unresolved. people are tired of both arroyo and corruption.

aquino having his parents as heroes of  the country, ninoy and cory enjoys an image of  it is one thing that noynoy will not do.

it was great timing that  aquino’s ads spoke of no corruption for him  and corruption was the issue being hurled on villar. 

in today’s PDI headline story, it said it was the Villarroyo charge that pulled villar’s ratings. we disagree. the charge that villar is arroyo’s secret presidentiable did not really get a lot of media play compared to the C-5 and corruption messages of aquino. 

Villarroyo was mentioned by mar roxas at the tail end of the C-5 controversy and got some press play but it was really not explained or given enough meat for the people to understand and remember it.  the C-5 controversy on the other hand got long and in-depth media coverage by the press and extended for a few weeks.

it appears the voters understood what the C-5 is really about at its core. they were able to see that this goes beyond senators having a lover’s quarrel or a man of power exerting undue influence but as a form of corruption.

in simplistic terms, the voters had this in their minds – aquino who is clean versus villar who is tainted. for a moment there villar got defined as corrupt and aquino re-confirmed as not corrupt.

the aquino and villar campaigns should look at this poll results very closely and understand how it got there and what are the implications. they should do more in-depth study and analysis and conduct further research. we think doing this and extracting the appropriate insights  has a very strong possibility that it will give them the winning formula for this election.

(view rap ad here: noynoy aquino’s new tv ad – pinoy noynoy rap,
read here : noynoy aquino’s “hindi ako magnanakaw” tv ad – the power of credibility in a powerful tv ad)

 

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the:

  • (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar;
  • Read more…

analysis: presidentiables for the rich, presidentiables for the poor and presidentiables for all

February 18, 2010 Leave a comment

there is an emerging trend at looking closer at the most recent Pulse Asia presidentiables survey results more closely(end january 2010).

there are basically three groupings of presidentiables.

  • presidentiables who enjoy support across the board from all socio-eco classes
  • presidentiables whose socio-eco classes support are skewed towards a specific socio-eco class

the first group are the presidentiables who are the front runners, villar and aquino who gained high numbers across the board. the second group have scores that tend to have very high on a specific socio-eco group and belong to the laggards group, teodoro and gordon.

this tells us its important for presidentiables to appeal to all socio-eco classes. appealing only to one segment ends up with a total low score.

we have written about the profile differences of villar, aquino and estrada based on this chart previously (read here:    analysis – villar and aquino are opposites, villar and estrada are the same : pulse asia presidentiables poll january 2010).

teodoro and gordon has similar profiles – they both appeal to the rich, ABC socio-eco classes. to turn that around will mean more advertising that appeal to them and most probably more provincial tours for public meetings. of the two, advertising will work faster and work best.

for villar to win this election, he needs to pull in voters from the ABC and D. a key concern for villar is the ABC socio-eco class since his ratiungs are significantly lower than that of of aquino. for aquino to win this election, he needs to pull in voters from the E socio-eco class. aquino’s weakness among the E is surprising since we thought cory’s pull among the voters runs across all socio-eco classes.

villanueva is interesting as his is a similar profile to those of villar and aquino – across the board. the issue with villanueva is that his ratings are low also across the board. that means villanueva need advertising and more efforts to reach more of these voters.

end-December SWS presidentiables poll – aquino remains formidable at #1, villar moves up by keeping laggards at bay, takes the undecided and others

January 9, 2010 2 comments

this is the data from the latest SWS presidentiables poll which was commissioned by congressman zamora, an NP member. we are comparing the latest poll results, which was conducted december 27 to 28, 2009 to the SWS december 5-10, 2009 poll commissioned by business world (click here to read: SWS Business World Presidentiable Poll – aquino has dominant lead at 46.2%). we do not have yet the SWS data tables, so we are picking up the numbers from the PDI news article.

  • Noynoy Aquino : 44% (dec 27-28) from 46.2% (dec 5-10) (2.2% loss)
  • Manny Villa : 33% from 27%  (+6% gain)
  • Erap Estrada : 15% from 16% (+1% gain)
  • Gilbert Teodoro : 5% from 4.6% (+0.4% gain)
  • Eddie Villanueva : 1% from 1.1% (-0.1% loss)
  • Richard Gordon : 0.5% from 0.9% (-0.4% loss)
  • Undecided : 1% from 3.7% (-2.7% loss)

first of all, note that it is a very bad idea to compare the latest poll conducted december 27-28 versus the december 5-10 poll because the design of the two polls are different. the early december poll had a lot more choices of presidentiable names for the respondents to choose from. that survey included the names of lozano, crespo and perlas. the late december poll probably has only 8 names on it which are COMELEC’s official list of candidates.

a difference in number of names to choose from affects the distribution of the votes from a statistics standpoint. there is also a difference in the way  the respondents make their choice.

another point – conducting this survey between christmas and new year is a very bad idea. any research agency will tell you conducting surveys of any kind during that period is not advisable as respondents tend to too preoccupied with the christmas and new year celebrations that their answers may not be as reliable compared to conducting surveys in dates other than those. the conventional wisdom is that no surveys are conducted from december 1 to until about the 1st week of january.

having said that, we should take this analysis with a grain of salt.

aquino continue to do well in this poll – he is still the dominant front runner in the poll. aquino is correct to say he has “staying power”. more importantly, the 2.2% loss of aquino from previous poll is meaningless as it probably falls within the  margin of  error.  that means statistically, aquino’s ratings have  not changed from the previous poll.

villar did very well in this poll, he gained +6%, a statistically significant gain. this is a tribute to the heavy advertising that villar has been airing.

villar gained not from aquino but from the other presidentiables like estrada and gordon and the other names that were included in the previous poll and now excluded in the latest poll. more importantly, villar gained from the   “undecided”.

the key conclusion here is that villar is a real threat to the laggards group while he is unable to get switchers from aquino. this can mean aquino supporters are fiercely loyal and that villar’s efforts have no to little effect on aquino’s followers.

nevertheless, villar is a threat to aquino in this election. there is still time for villar to figure out how to get aquino supporters to switch to him.

this latest survey continue to confirm our prediction that this election will be one between aquino and villar.

unlike mass consumer products marketing and traditional marketing, political marketing is a very different animal all together. we think that except for villar, all other presidentiables are approaching this in the wrong marketing and advertising sense.

NP camp solicited latest SWS survey

By Michael Lim Ubac
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:08:00 01/09/2010

MANILA, Philippines—The lead of Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III over his nearest rival, Sen. Manny Villar, of the Nacionalista Party has been narrowed to 11 percent, according to a recent Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by a Villar ally.

Read more…

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