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with 47% of voters not completing 12 senatoriables, dynasty candidates & re-electionists enter top 12

March 3, 2013 Leave a comment

source : http://www.sws.org.ph/

based on this SWS 2013 Senatorables survey – 47% of voters cannot complete all 12 senatoriables while an equal number, 47% can complete all 12. (balance 6% are undecided or made invalid markings).  on average, all voters will just be able to write down 9 names for the 12 senatoriable slots.

we think 47% unable to complete all 12 is a huge number. what that may are the following :

  • there is not enough 12 “good men” among the 33 senatoriables running for office. most are unworthy of being elected
  • not enough information about the candidates are reaching voters for them to complete the 12. this is just the start of the campaign period, let us hope this will change soon.

although still on the early stages of the campaign, at this point in time, these are the candidates who are benefiting from this situation and are getting better chances at getting elected :

  • dynasty candidates – children, siblings or spouses of elected officials who are running for senator
  • incumbent senators running for reelection  

based on the survey, of the top 12, 6 are candidates for reelection – legarda, escudero, cayetano, pimentel, trillanes and zubiri. we consider zubiri for reelection since he did serve a term in the senate. a large number in the top 12 are dynasty candidates –   villar, binay, ejercito aquino and angara. only 1 senatoriable, poe does not belong to any one of these groups.

the results of this survey would be so different if the 47% who did not complete the 12 spots would complete their list.

dynasty candidates are running on the basis of having the same family name as elected officials, that gives them a built-in advantage of being remembered more easily and have better chances of getting elected. not completing your list of 12 makes that advantage work for them for real.

completing the list of 12, say with names who are not re-electionists or dynasty candidates will have the effect of pushing down the dynasty candidates from the top 12.  

SWS poll : aquino gets “good” rating on net satisfaction rating, 2QTR 2011

July 25, 2011 Leave a comment

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=TopStory&title=Aquino-administration-maintains-%E2%80%98good%E2%80%99-rating&id=35260

Aquino administration maintains ‘good’ rating

FILIPINOS CONTINUE to hold a favorable view of the Aquino administration’s performance, with the Social Weather Stations (SWS) reporting a satisfaction rating well above those of previous governments and favorable scores in all but one issue.

 June’s “good” net rating of +45 (62% satisfied, 17% dissatisfied and 19% ambivalent), while down a point from March and substantially lower than the record “very good” +64 hit in September and November last year, is still higher than all other scores recorded since 1986, the SWS said.

The best previous rating, it noted, was the “good” +36 notched by the Estrada administration in November 1998.

Respondents said they were also satisfied with the Aquino government’s performance regarding 17 specific issues, with record highs hit in terms of helping migrant Filipinos and pursuing tax evaders. The sole failing mark — although up from March — involved the resolution of the Maguindanao massacre.

Malacañang claimed that the lower scores were “statistically insignificant” and passed the blame regarding the almost two-year-old massacre onto the justice system. A Palace official claimed they were “as unhappy as the people in the manner and pace of the trial”.

Read more…

SWS-Business World april poll : aquino holds lead, villar drops. villar’s down trend to continue.

April 26, 2010 Leave a comment

source: http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=9817

this poll was conducted middle of april, about 4 weeks from election time and it shows aquino’s lead continue to be strong at 38% while villar shows downward trend at 26%.  aquino having a strong double digit lead  and villar showing a declining trend is good news for aquino and very bad news for villar.

we are reading the poll results with just 2 weeks to go till election time. with nothing new and no remarkable or outstanding efforts done by villar since survey time till today, a 2 week lapse,  it is difficult to expect that villar’s down trending trend has been arrested or reversed. in marketing, the way to arrest and reverse a declining  sales and market share trend is to some new and heavy marketing efforts. not doing anything new and heavy means the trend will continue. this should be true for villar.

in fact, the past two weeks has not been good for villar. erap estrada and juan ponce enrile exploded a new scandal – the VLL and PSE scandal where both charged villar used his influence and power on the PSE to allow him to sell his shares on the IPO of VLL which was supposed on escrow. rules of the PSE disallowed the release of shares for sale by owners to protect investors.

we have said in this blog that villar is getting hurt by the C-5 corruption scandal since early this year, then it got solidified as a dead weight with the villarroyo charge. this VLL-PSE scandal has the potential to confirm in the minds of voters of villar’s weakness in character where he tends to use his power and position for personal gain. the gain in this particular instance is worth billions of profits in the sale of his VLL stocks.

with the VLL-PSE scandal breaking out in the last two weeks and with no to little new and heavy efforts done by villar, we can expect further deterioration of villar’s ratings.

we are now at the point of no return. the only way the trends will change is doing a hail mary pass. who has the guts or who is most desperate to do it?

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