Posts Tagged ‘SWS presidentiables survey’

dramatic losses in internals for top 3 presidentiables but aquino leads, erap 2nd, villar drops to 3rd – May 2010 SWS-Business World presidentiables survey

May 7, 2010 4 comments

the sws-business world may 2-3 poll shows some interesting developments in the internal scores with major changes in them although the over-all outcome did not show any changes.

noynoy aquino continue to be the front runner but has gained significantly from previous to now 42% from 38%, a 4% point gain. the survey has a 2.2% margin of error.

erap estrada also gained significantly from previous to now 20% from 17% and overtakes manny villar who suffered a major drop to now 19% from the previous 26%. the significant drop for villar and significant gain for erap has put them now on a statistical tie. although the momentum is on the side of estrada.

it appears to us villar has not found the correct formula to arrest his declining numbers. we have said previously in this blog that villar’s drop has been caused by the unresolved C-5 corruption scandal, concretized by the Villarroyo name and villar’s move from the side of good to evil in his parties efforts at black propaganda most of which backfired and hurt his campaign instead.

(read here:

the over-all ratings and rankings have not changed  from previous. however, it is noteworthy that aquino’s lead over estrada is dramatic, a +22% lead, more than double than what estrada has. aquino has 42% versus estrada’s 20%.

the internals of their scores are quite interesting to look at.

aquino’s NCR ratings grew significantly to 43% from 35% while his socio-eco class rating among the ABC dropped to 44% from 53%. we find that a very unusual movement as most of the ABC class are located in NCR. these ratings seem to be contradicting each other. we wonder if there is a tabulation error in this report.

estrada’s mindanao rating has gone up dramatically to 30% from 22%.  this is probably driven mostly by estrada’s mindanao-specific tv ad that he has been airing in the past weeks. estrada may have found a very strategic move in this election. he is the only presidentiable who ran mindanao-specific tv ads.

another notable movement in estrada’s internal scores is his ABC rating which is now 14% from the previous 6%, more than doubling from previous. we wonder if this is related to the question we have posted on the ABC tallies in aquino’s scores.

villar’s significant drop in over-all rating to 19% from 26% may have been brought about by dramatic deterioration of his ratings in the NCR, from 18% to 10%, a cut of more than half; balance luzon from 25% to 20%, a quarter drop and mindanao , another drop by more than half from 31%  to 15%.  we think these are very alarming deterioration of villar’s ratings.

significant drops in villar’s ratings occurred across all socio-eco classes, -9% pts in ABC, -7% in D and -10% in E. across the board drops in geography and socio-classes is showing villar supporters are showing fluid movements confirming what we said previously that villar’s supporters are most vulnerable to poaching by other presidentiables.

these movements should tell the presidentiable campaigns to look into geographic and demographics segmentation to improve their over-all ratings. unfortunately, because it is just a few days before election, there is not much they can do to recover or push their ratings in the direction they want it to be.

Aquino pads poll lead

Gap now 22 points; Estrada overtakes Villar

WITH THE MAY 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.

The May 2-3 poll, conducted roughly a week before Filipinos troop to the precincts, gave Mr. Aquino the support of 42%, up four points and ahead of former President Joseph “Erap” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masa who was now in second place with three-point gain to 20%.

Erstwhile second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) was a point behind at 19%, a result within the survey’s error margin of 2.2%. His support was down seven points from the prior BW-SWS poll of April 16-19.

The gap between the top two was 22 points, wider than the 12 Mr. Aquino enjoyed over Mr. Villar in the last survey.



~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~
carlo arvisu

May 2010 SWS-BusinessWorld Presidentiables Poll – no change among laggards; teodoro doubles Class E rating

May 7, 2010 2 comments

the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change.  their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.

the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.

Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.

Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)

Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.

As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.

(The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)

The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.

They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)


Pulse Asia April 2010 Presidentiables Poll : estrada ties villar at 2nd, aquino widens lead

April 29, 2010 Leave a comment

The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following: (1) defections from the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the Liberal Party (LP); (2) election-related issues such as the purchase of ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding of the contract for the purchase of indelible ink; (3) completion of the printing of ballots for the May 2010 elections; (4) various incidents of election-related violence across the country; (5) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president; (6) accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in 2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares; (7) Senator Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups; (8) petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes; (9) the Supreme Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice); (10) calls for the resignation and disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following his decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and (11) increase in power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.

BusinessWorld-SWS January 2010 presidentiables survey – villar closes gap

February 4, 2010 Leave a comment

Aquino-Villar spread cut to 7 points

The key change from the previous SWS survey of December 27-28, 2009 is that Aquino lost 2 of his former 44 points while Villar gained 2 points, thus cutting the Aquino-Villar spread from 11 points to 7 [Chart 1, Table 1].

Estrada lost 2 of his former 15 points, bringing him at least 22 points away from Aquino and Villar.

The vote percentages of Teodoro, Villanueva, Gordon, Madrigal, De Los Reyes, and Perlas did not change significantly from December of 2009.

end-December SWS presidentiables poll – aquino remains formidable at #1, villar moves up by keeping laggards at bay, takes the undecided and others

January 9, 2010 2 comments

this is the data from the latest SWS presidentiables poll which was commissioned by congressman zamora, an NP member. we are comparing the latest poll results, which was conducted december 27 to 28, 2009 to the SWS december 5-10, 2009 poll commissioned by business world (click here to read: SWS Business World Presidentiable Poll – aquino has dominant lead at 46.2%). we do not have yet the SWS data tables, so we are picking up the numbers from the PDI news article.

  • Noynoy Aquino : 44% (dec 27-28) from 46.2% (dec 5-10) (2.2% loss)
  • Manny Villa : 33% from 27%  (+6% gain)
  • Erap Estrada : 15% from 16% (+1% gain)
  • Gilbert Teodoro : 5% from 4.6% (+0.4% gain)
  • Eddie Villanueva : 1% from 1.1% (-0.1% loss)
  • Richard Gordon : 0.5% from 0.9% (-0.4% loss)
  • Undecided : 1% from 3.7% (-2.7% loss)

first of all, note that it is a very bad idea to compare the latest poll conducted december 27-28 versus the december 5-10 poll because the design of the two polls are different. the early december poll had a lot more choices of presidentiable names for the respondents to choose from. that survey included the names of lozano, crespo and perlas. the late december poll probably has only 8 names on it which are COMELEC’s official list of candidates.

a difference in number of names to choose from affects the distribution of the votes from a statistics standpoint. there is also a difference in the way  the respondents make their choice.

another point – conducting this survey between christmas and new year is a very bad idea. any research agency will tell you conducting surveys of any kind during that period is not advisable as respondents tend to too preoccupied with the christmas and new year celebrations that their answers may not be as reliable compared to conducting surveys in dates other than those. the conventional wisdom is that no surveys are conducted from december 1 to until about the 1st week of january.

having said that, we should take this analysis with a grain of salt.

aquino continue to do well in this poll – he is still the dominant front runner in the poll. aquino is correct to say he has “staying power”. more importantly, the 2.2% loss of aquino from previous poll is meaningless as it probably falls within the  margin of  error.  that means statistically, aquino’s ratings have  not changed from the previous poll.

villar did very well in this poll, he gained +6%, a statistically significant gain. this is a tribute to the heavy advertising that villar has been airing.

villar gained not from aquino but from the other presidentiables like estrada and gordon and the other names that were included in the previous poll and now excluded in the latest poll. more importantly, villar gained from the   “undecided”.

the key conclusion here is that villar is a real threat to the laggards group while he is unable to get switchers from aquino. this can mean aquino supporters are fiercely loyal and that villar’s efforts have no to little effect on aquino’s followers.

nevertheless, villar is a threat to aquino in this election. there is still time for villar to figure out how to get aquino supporters to switch to him.

this latest survey continue to confirm our prediction that this election will be one between aquino and villar.

unlike mass consumer products marketing and traditional marketing, political marketing is a very different animal all together. we think that except for villar, all other presidentiables are approaching this in the wrong marketing and advertising sense.

NP camp solicited latest SWS survey

By Michael Lim Ubac
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:08:00 01/09/2010

MANILA, Philippines—The lead of Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III over his nearest rival, Sen. Manny Villar, of the Nacionalista Party has been narrowed to 11 percent, according to a recent Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by a Villar ally.

Read more…

memo to presidentiables: next steps from 4Qtr SWS presidentiables survey results

January 14, 2009 1 comment

just a quick run through of key action steps for the presidentiables coming from the 4qtr 2008 results of the SWS survey for presidentiables. we have intentionally over-simplified the points.

for the top 3, de castro, legarda and villar: 

  •  keep doing what you are doing
  • DO NOT make any mistake, watch your steps all the time

for the next 4, escudero, lacson, estrada and roxas:

  • need to get more media exposure
  • be selective on issues to pick on, but consistently pick one across time

for the next 2, binay and fernando:

  • think and behave like you only have 1 week of your life in this world
  • there is no time to waste, get into the minds of the public across all geographies and demographics

4Qtr 2008 SWS Presidentiables Survey Results : no major changes at the top, some movements at the middle

January 14, 2009 Leave a comment

not a lot of changes at the top but with some changes at the middle of the list. the top 2, de castro and legarda gained slightly which is expected. without any major developments, top contenders will tend to gain slightly through the survey periods. villar’s drop in ratings is insignificant.

of interest is escudero who at 4th place gained 3 points. the next three, lacson, estrada and roxas slightly lost some standing. roxas’ slide in ratings is not in any way related to his “putang ina” magic words during that rally at ayala. the fieldwork for the survey was conducted before the rally.

binay and fernando gained significantly but because they are coming from a very small base,  no significant meaning should be attached to the high increase.

4QTR SWS Presidentiables Survey

To the survey question, “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 10, 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.” [Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names]

%d bloggers like this: