villar ouster as senate president by the opposition – a major tactical blunder

news have it hat the opposition and in fact in this PDI article, it says erap estrada engineered the ouster of senator manny villar as senate president. the reason given is that villar is leading among the opposition presidentiables and they wanted to remove him from the senate presidency to remove an advantage enjoyed by villar. they think villar being senate president now helps his candidacy even more. villar is the leading opposition presidentiable in the recent polls that have been conducted.

WAWAM! thinks removing villar as senate president to reduce his strength as a presidentiable is a major tactical blunder committed by the opposition, assuming the reports are true.

it’s a major tactical blunder as the opposition has effectively removed one of their strongest weapon against the adminstration candidates, specially vice president noli de castro who is actually leading the polls (de castro is #1, villar #2 and estrada #3 in ranking).  opposition presidentiables have to remember that they have two groups of competitors — the admin presidentiables and the other opposition presidentiables. any presidentiable need to look at those two groups as real competition. but of the two, the admin presidentiables are more formidable and harder to beat than their opposition presidentiables. the incumbent, in this case de castro, always has an edge in elections.

villar as second in the polls mean he has the strength to weaken the top ranking presidentiable who is from the admin side. the other opposition presidentiables should have allowed villar to be where he is so that he can strongly fight the leading admin presidentiable and weaken the  position of the leading candidate. the longer villar stays as second, the better he will be able to weaken the top ranking presidentiable. villar being second will naturally have his eye on the leading presidentiable.

the actual election is still many months from now, in may 2010 – the rankings will definitely change. and allowing villar to weaken the top ranking admin presidentiable will be good for the opposition in general as it will mean the admin will have a much weaker candidate as we get close to the actual election in 2010. in other words, the other opposition presidentiables should have allowed villar to do their dirty work for them.

in-fighting now among the opposition presidentiables is not good for any of them. they are in effect throwing mud at each other, weakening each other and places them in a disadvantage come election time. instead of in-fighting, they should all band together and weaken the admin candidates. and when it’s closer to the election and the admin candidates are already weak, then they can decide who among them will run. anyone they choose down the stretch will have a much better chance of winning.

  

 

 

Estrada hand in coup seen

But deposed leader denies ousting Villar

By Juliet Labog-Javellana, Leila Salaverria
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:51:00 11/19/2008

MANILA, Philippines—Joseph “Erap” Estrada helped oust Manuel Villar as Senate president because he wants the latter out of the way of the opposition ticket in the 2010 presidential election.

This was disclosed to the Philippine Daily Inquirer by an administration senator.

Estrada denied any hand in the coup that saw Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, an ally of both President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her deposed predecessor, taking the plum post from Villar.

“Erap sees that there are many candidates from the opposition. He wants Manny Villar out of the way because [the latter’s] being Senate president gives him a competitive edge,” said the senator who asked not to be named because of the sensitive nature of the subject.

The senator said Estrada, who was convicted of plunder and quickly pardoned by Ms Arroyo, played his hand through his son, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, as well as senators harboring presidential or vice presidential ambitions.

“This is an opposition plot, and Erap is the master manipulator who played on their greed. I don’t think there was money involved here; it was just preying on their ambitions,” the senator said.

According to the senator, this was why Jinggoy Estrada, a close associate of Villar who had picked him to be Senate president pro tempore, joined the coup.

“Jinggoy will not move without any instruction from his father,” the senator said.

source: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20081119-173005/Estrada-hand-in-coup-seen