teodoro set to lose election – teodoro’s own LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party. giving up on teodoro too soon?

there is something happening within the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD political party to which gilbert teodoro belongs to –  we are reading noise in the newspapers about several officials of the party openly talking to the press about their discontent and worries on the candidacy of gilbert teodoro. they all seem to be in agreement that teodoro is doing very poorly in this election, that there are things he is doing that is not helping his candidacy and the unsaid words that teodoro is set to lose the 2010 presidential election.

first was senator zubiri’s pronouncement that the opposition is poised to win the 2010 election because teodoro’s campaign never really took off.  he also said this:

“People want change. That is the effect of nine years (in power). That is understandable,” he said in Filipino.

that sounds very much like saying the people are very much tired of president arroyo’s administration and the people can’t wait for her to step down for the new president to take over. it also means teodoro is very much associated with arroyo that the people see the prospect of teodoro being president as just a continuation of arroyo’s presidency.

then there is the statement from another LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD party official who said the party is set to hold an emergency executive committee  meeting in march if teodoro’s ratings fail to improve.

that says the executive committee recognize that teodoro’s campaign is suffering now, unable to get itself out of the bottom in the polls. they are worried of a downward spiral and the emergency meeting is meant to arrest this decline.

just recently, another officer of teodoro’s party has talked to the press also saying teodoro’s advertising campaign, the airplane campaign has failed and is to blame for teodoro’s inability to bring his ratings up from the grave. this officer is LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD vice president prospero pichay.

we find that amusing. pichay ran for senator in the last senatorial election and based on media data, he was the top spender in advertising during that election. as we all know now, pichay lost that election.

we find it ironic that this man who spent the most ad money in the last election but failed to win is making such a comment on teodoro’s tv advertising. it is obvious that not being elected despite being the highest spender in that election means pichay lost the election due to bad advertising. did pichay use his advertising smarts that he ddisplayed in the last election to asssess teodoro’s ad campaign?

the common denominators among these three lakas officials are – teodoro is losing the election and his efforts are not helping him if not wrong.

we are shocked that these supposed officials of the party are even talking to the press about their misgivings and teodoro’s failures as a presidential candidate.  for the sake of teodoro, will they not be better off not talking to the press about these things, keep them hush-hush, hold the meeting and change things.  the key there is not talk to the press.

telling these things to the press can be very demoralizing for teodoro’s few supporters to read. we are ssaying they are few based on the poll results where he got at best 5%. teodoro’s supporters already know their candidate is doing poorly in the polls but to read it in the newspapers as said by party officials is a real killer.

we also wonder if the cracks are showing within the ruling party. this is not the first time it has happened. this already happened from the very beginning of the party’s so called process in selecting their standard bearer.

during that time we heard a lot of officers and members of the party openly criticizing party officials for taking a long time to name their standard bearer. there were also loud talks on who they want the party to select as standard bearer and teodoro’s name was not being mentioned during that time.

with all of these happening to gilbert teodoro’s party, we ask the question – with friends and partymates like these, who needs friends and political opponents?

to win, erap estrada should drop his nostalgia campaign and air his old ads instead

~~this is next in The 2010 Presidentiables Blog~~

why gilbert teodoro is losing this election, and it’s not just bad advertising

–this is next in The 2010 Presidentiables Blog–

eddie villanueva and nick perlas have highest distrust ratings – pulse asia survey

this is the other thing that has surprised us in the latest (january 2010) pulse asia trust ratings among the presidentiables – nick perlas and eddie villanueva have the two highest distrust ratings among the presidentiables.

• nick perlas at 54% is the highest  “no trust” rating
• eddie villanueva at 53% is the second highest “no trust” rating

we can explain nick perlas’ high no trust ratings – only a few among the respondents are “aware” of him at 36%, the third lowest among the presidentiables.  we think with very few knowing him, they tend to be more critical and less favorable to perlas.

we cannot explain why eddie villanueva has high “no trust” rating the same way we are able to with perlas. villanueva has a very high awareness rating of  92%, comparable to the other presidentiables.

what this tells us is most people know who villanueva is but they are unable to trust him. the people are actually already judging villanueva based on what they actually know of him. the other part that intrigues us is that villanueva is a pastor. we think people should find it easier to trust a pastor but now wonder why this is not so. also, as a pastor, villnueva’s speaking and persuasive skills we believe must have been sharpened many times over and yet he is unable to get the trust of  the people.

for villanueva to win, he needs to find out what it is in him that is making people not trust him. for perlas to win, he needs to get more exposure to them to be able to judge him fairly.

pulse asia survey: aquino and villar big time on trust, teodoro suffers, same as estrada

perhaps to have manny villar and noynoy aquino’s trust ratings to be high and dominant is not surprising, they are after all the front runners in the 2010 election. we do not think one can be a front runner in the presidentiables poll if your trust ratings are low. there is no surprise in villar and aquino’s ratings.

what is surprising is when you look down at the other presidentiables.

erap estrada’s trust ratings are as low as gilbert teodoro’s and estrada’s trust ratings are as high as teodoro’s.

• estrada trust rating at  33% vs teodoro’s distrust rating at 32%
• estrada’s distrust rating at 37% vs teodoro’s distrust rating at 31% (there is significant difference here)

we are surprised by it as we did not think estrada and teodoro would be seen by the respondents as anything similar to each other. erap estrada may have a string of  nationally elected position like the presidency to his name but he is a convicted criminal, the crime of plunder whose liberty was made possible only through a presidential pardon by president arroyo. Teodoro may not have had a nationally elected position to his name and may not be as well known as estrada, he is very much a clean politician versus estrada. we thought they were black and white in character and credentials, getting the same kind of ratings on trust and distrust is very surprising.

now we wonder that perhaps teodoro’s low trust and high distrust rating that is practically the same as the convicted criminal estrada may be due to his close association with president arroyo. arroyo’s trust and distrust ratings are also disastrously embarrassing with a measly 11% trust and a huge 68% of distrust. we did not expect that arroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro will go this far.

comparing the frontrunner’s trust and distrust ratings to those of estrada and specially teodoro is another matter of strong interest for us.

aquino and villar’s trust ratings are double in size compared to teodoro’s and estrada while the front runner’s distrust ratings are almost only 1/3 of teodoro’s and estrada’s. this may indicate the front runners are way ahead in this election and the laggard’s group has a lot of catching up to do.

pulse asia survey January 2010 – president arroyo distrust continue to be high at 68%

just a few weeks to the election and the end of the term of president arroyo, her trust ratings are as bad as the previous period. a high 68% distrust arroyo and a meager 11% trust arroyo.

this is very telling – only 1 out 10 filipinos trust the president of this country while close to 7 out of 10 do not trust arroyo. we think trust in the leader is an essential element in any governance of a country. how can the country improve itself and move forward if it does not trust it;s most important leader, the president?

this is also important in the coming election. lakas-kampi-cmd supposedly the largest political party in the country to which arroyo belongs is in danger of  losing its clout and power. the most obvious would be victim is the party’s presidential standard bearer who seem to be hurting the most from the high unpopularity of arroyo.  teodoro is very much associated with arroyo.

he has been denying it, but based on the polls, teodoro has been given the kiss of death by arroyo.

gilbert teodoro interview on ondoy & pepeng floods shows teodoro’s incompetence and mismanagement of NDCC and government response to the floods

with thanks to dodon who posted this video here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2010/02/13/presidentiables-as-of-mid-november-2008/gilbert-teodoro-2/#comment-6798

highlights:

• interviewer says the NDCC and the government has gone under criticism on its handling during and after the storms. teodoro answers they have done well given the resources the government had.
• asked about the 12 rubber boats, 8 ambulances and 2 helicopters which were nowhere near enough
• teodoro admits they are not enough but says its a question of who should provide them. he shifts the blame now on the local government, the national government, and which agency and no blame on the NDCC
• teodoro says it is only the armed forces of the philippines that was directly under him
• in separate news, we read that teodoro’s staff had recommended for the purchase of more rubber boats but teodoro delayed the purchase for budget and procurement process reasons. if the NDCC was not responsible for the purchase of rubber boats, why did his staff recommend that they buy them and why did he delay the purchase? teodoro has been caught in a lie.
• interviewer says – “you are blaming other government agencies” and says as a senior government official, he is passing the blame to others
• the country get 19 to 20 storms, why is this government not prepared for such disasters?
• you are skirting the issue. you have been getting storms for a hundred years, why are you not prepared for them?
• teodoro answers – systems cost money. in other words teodoro is saying they know there will be damage and will cost lives but since we do not have money, the people just need to bear and grin it.
• what then is the role of NDCC which teodoro headed? isn’t its mandate to prepare the people for disasters? since we are unprepared, it means the NDCC has failed in its mandate.
• the current set up has not worked. teodoro agrees to that, so the NDCC has failed in its mandate

this is part 1:

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog – more than triples daily average hits, soon to reach 300,000 hits

within the next 2 weeks, The 2010 Presidentiables Blog will hit a new milestone of 300,000 hits. this blog has grown very rapidly in the past 3 months.

from an average of 500 hits per day in the whole year of 2009, this blog has more than tripled it’s average daily hits to 1,700 per day starting December 2009.

these are the top 10 topics of this blog since it opened.

1. Home page
2. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Stat
3. Eddie Villanueva
4. villanueva continue to lead, aquino and
5. Presidentiables Reactions To Arroyo’s SO
6. noynoy aquino
7. RH Bill No. 5043 Full Text
8. the noynoy aquino-mar roxas platform of
9. the 2010 Presidentiables Poll officially
10. manny villar

 thank you to the authors, readers and posters for making this blog one of the more successful 2010 elections blog.

DoH chief cabral pressured by CBCP to resign but will continue to distribute condoms

dr. cabral, DoH chief - kudos!

we like dr. esperanza cabral already. she is the new DoH chief and shhe is hell bent on doing her job as DoH secretary. one sign – she will continue to distribute condoms as she sees condoms as good fix to the HIV/AIDS spread which she now calls an epidemic. she says it has been an epedimic but the government chose not to do anything about it and just stayed to watch it grow.

highlights:

“We should be properly alarmed because as the (HIV-AIDS) data show, HIV-AIDS is an escalating problem,” she said.

She said that three years ago, one person was diagnosed as having HIV-AIDS every day. But in 2009, the rate rose to two persons with HIV-AIDS every day.

During the past two months, HIV-AIDS cases have “gone up to four persons diagnosed (with the disease) every day.”

“If you look at the graph on the incidence of HIV-AIDS over the past two decades, you will see that in the past, and I think this is why we became a little complacent about the problem, the doubling time for HIV-AIDS was 10 years. In other words, it took 10 years for the cases to double from, say 100 to 200.”

Today, “the doubling time is one year,” she said.

“So, at this rate, now we have a total of 4,400 cases of HIV-AIDS known to us. At the end of the year, that would be 8,800. If the doubling rate remains stable, at the end of 2011, that’s going to be 17,600. At the end of 2011, that’s going to be 34,400,” she warned.

“We really need to do something about it,” Cabral said.

here is more:

But Cabral in pushing for condom distribution said the country continued to exist as a “democratic secular state.”

“We are not a religious state, such as Iran. We are a secular state where there is separation of church from state,” she pointed out.

Cabral emphasized that “while it is very important for us to find out what they think, to cooperate with them in areas where we can be cooperating with, the government is the government and must do what it thinks is right for everybody.”

“Not everybody in the Philippines belongs to one church,” she also stressed.

At the same time, Cabral said they would always be “willing to discuss and negotiate (with Catholic Church officials).”

Some Catholic bishops wanted Cabral kicked out of office because of the DoH condom project, which they said could endanger the people’s morals.

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100223-254899/DoH-chief-to-keep-on-distributing-condoms–to-stop-HIV-AIDS

gilbert teodoro’s cheesy moment in his negative tv ad

teodoro's cheesy moment #1

teodoro's cheesy moment # 2

teodoro's cheesy moment # 3

teodoro's cheesy moment # 4

teodoro's cheesy moment # 5, this time with a smirk

i found this end sequence in that ad really funny. first time i have seen somehting like that done in  a political ad. in fact it is the first time i have seen something like that in any tv ad.

what was the director thinking? hahaha. his way of having a dramatic ending? this kind of ending is okay for a movie or some drama queen but for a presidential candidate? it’s so un-presidential.

~wawam~

2010 presidential campaign – are negative campaign tv ads next?

we are approaching the final stretch of the election campaign. that may sound strange to read considering the official campaign period started just weeks ago but that is the official start which none of the presidentiables actually followed. the unofficial campaign period started many months ago, last year. ask manny villar about it and he will certainly confirm it.

being in the last stretch, the election less than four months from now, voters are firming up their choices. the point of no return for candidates is when voters finally make their choices.

to uncork that decision, candidates need to ramp up their efforts – advertising rallies and media exposure or launch negative ads against their opponents.

we have seen negative campaigning already, we hear the candidates comment on their opponent’s skills, qualifications, record or scandals they have been or are involved in. many of them are still on hush-hush tones, the names of the particular presidentiable they are attacking not mentioned in their speeches, although we know who they are. some a little more blatant which we witness during presidential “debates” or forum where presidentiables address other presidentiables on issues or scandals.

richard gordon’s version of negative campaigning, no names mentioned:

The standard-bearer of the Bagumbayan-Volunteers party said, referring to the other presidential aspirants: “There is someone who is very intelligent but who has no experience. There is a very rich man who will just recoup his campaign expenses if he wins. And there is someone who just inherited a good name.”

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100222-254620/Gordon-reveals-why-hes-running

that is still the mild form. in the US, negative ads is a regular staple during the election. based on the US experience, negative ads do work although in degrees. negative ads serve to stop the momentum the candidate being attacked is enjoying, it is like a pause button on your opponents.

however, negative ads do not work for the long term and one cannot do just negative ads. doing it exclusively and for a long time tends to backfire on the candidate releasing the negative ads.

looking at the poll results, we see voters firming up on two presidentiables – aquino and gordon with estrada as a distant dark horse. everyone else in the group based on the current results do not seem to have a chance at winning the election. next to the top three presidentiables is administration candidate gilbert teodoro but his rating of 4% to 5% has not moved across all the surveys conducted so far. his ratings not showing any life of upward movement says he is stalled at that level. teodoro is unable to get any more supporters.

on the other hand, the poll results of the top three presidentiables seem to be getting very fluid. we now see aquino, the erstwhile dominant front runner moving down and the 2nd placer, manny villar moving up to a level where in one poll villar has reached a statistical tie with aquino.

estrada’s rating used to be constant at 15%, no matter what happened to the candidates at the top or the bottom. but this is no longer true in the latest polls. while it is not correct to read trends using two different polls, estrada’s 11% showing in the TNS poll seem to indicate estrada supporters are starting to abandon him.

the presidentiables should take this fluid movement in a good light. that means the voters are vulnerable to switching to some degree. to increase the speed of that movement, the presidentiables can go into negative ads. the positive ads they have been running, ads that extol their positive side, has resulted only to marginal movements. perhaps negative ads, those that speak of the weaknesses of other presidentiables might speed up the movements.

except for marcos, negative political ads have not been done in the philippines before in the manner and form that it has been done in the US.  with so much at stake and with the top two presidentiables positions firming up, perhaps negative ads is the only way left to go for some of the presidentiables who are trailing in the polls.

are we ready for negative ads?

dingdong dantes campaigns for noynoy aquino

must be nearing the campaign period – aquino is now using his celebrity endorsers in his campaign.

Actor Dingdong Dantes joins Aquino campaign rally 
By Maila Ager
INQUIRER.net
First Posted 19:04:00 02/22/2010

BULACAN, Philippines — Actor Dingdong Dantes on Monday joined Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III’s campaign rally here held in San Jose del Monte City’s town plaza.

Dantes was wearing a black polo shirt when he appeared on stage but he removed his top to reveal his yellow shirt.

The actor, along with a rapper, gave a short sing and dance number that made the crowd wild.

After the number, Dantes also gave a brief speech, endorsing Aquino’s bid, his running mate, Senator Manuel Roxas II, and his senatorial ticket.

Roxas was present and some Liberal Party’s senatorial bets like former Senator Ralph Recto, former congressman Nereus Acosta, Bukidnon Representative Teofisto Guingona III, Akbayan Representative Risa Hontiveros, and Martin Bautista.

Dantes described the Aquino-Roxas tandem as a “symbol of hope and change.”

Before Dantes, comedy actor- turned-politician Dennis Padilla also gave a song number.